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CARE Ratings has said that Indian economy will grow in the range of 11-11.2 per cent in the next financial year (FY22). It stated the high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in FY22 will be on the back of low base effect in FY21 and broad-based recovery across the economy. Further it added  Progress in tax collections will be critical factor in realising this growth as any downside risk to Gross Value Added (GVA) would impact taxes and, in turn, GDP growth.

It mentioned recovery is broad based across sectors but at varying speed as the services sector in particular still operates with significant restrictions which look unlikely to be fully eased through the first half of FY22. The recovery in the economy will also be aided by the vaccination drive which has been witnessed in the country and the sustained pace of vaccination and coverage of more age-groups is required to speed up the process. Although the second COVID-19 wave has raised the possibility of lockdown, the restrictions are expected to be less potent than those seen during FY21.

Besides, it estimated GVA to grow at 10.2 per cent in FY22 over (-) 6.5 per cent in FY21. This estimate is based on the normal monsoon assumption which will result in stable agricultural output. Any deviation here will change the overall estimate. As per its estimates, agriculture will grow at 3.5 per cent during FY22 on steady kharif and rabi harvests. Both industrial and services sectors will record 11.6 per cent growth. The industrial sector will witness buoyancy with mining, manufacturing and construction registering double-digit growth rates over negative growth in FY21. All three segments under services sector - trade, hotels, transport, storage, communication; financial, real estate and prof services; and public administration, defence and other - are expected to register double-digit growth.