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Rupee Heads For Worst Weekly Loss In A Year - HDFC Securities

Indian Rupee heads for the worst weekly loss almost in a year after dovish central bank policy. So far this month, rupee has lost 2.9% to 74.61 a dollar and foreign investors sold worth $155 million equities and $325 million debt.

The non deliverable forward markets pointing lower opening for USDINR following weaker dollar against major currencies. Spot USDINR is expected consolidate in range of 74.40 to 74.90 in coming session. Technically, the pair has been in bullish trend and crossing of psychological level of 75 will strengthen the bulls.

Asian currencies and stocks look set for a steady open Friday following a Wall Street rally after comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Powell told a panel Thursday that his commute home takes him past a “substantial tent city,” and that he thought of the millions of Americans who are still trying to get back to work. “So we just need to keep reminding ourselves that even though some parts of the economy are just doing great, there’s a very large group of people who are not,” he said during the IMF panel. “I really want to finish the job and get back to a great economy.”

Stocks rose moderately as the bulls retained firm command on Thursday. The dollar dropped most in two weeks as investors weighed the Federal Reserve’s commitment to keep its monetary policy easy for the foreseeable future. The yen jumped the most in more than five months before paring gains. US rates continued to retrace their late winter selloff, with the 10- and 30-year Treasury yields declining to 1.62% and 2.32%, respectively

US Federal Reserve Bank Credit, or interest-bearing assets on the Fed balance sheet, increased $15 billion from last week to $7.66 trillion, that represents a 20% three-month annualized growth rate.

Technical Observations:

USDINR

USDINR April futures formed long legged doji candle, a smaller body with long wicks on both side suggesting indecisiveness among traders. The pattern also suggest calmness in the market after sharp rally.

It has closed above short term and long term moving averages.

Momentum oscillator heading northbound suggesting continuation of upward momentum.

The bias will remain bullish following higher high formation.

It has resistance at 75.15 and support at 74.50

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