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Rupee : Indecisive on technical resistance and mixed global cues

Indian Rupee expected to show muted start with marginal gains following Asian currencies which are mixed against dollar in the early Asian session. The U.S. dollar remained on the back foot against major peers on Wednesday after a two-day drop as U.S. Federal Reserve officials including Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed that tighter monetary policy was still some way off.

On Tuesday, spot USDINR closed at 74.36 climbing 26 paise on inflation worries due to higher oil prices. Bonds traded steady anchored by RBI, while interest-rate swaps are elevated. Rupee expected to trade volatile as at one end risk sentiments adding strength while capital outflows and higher crude oil prices weighing on it. Technically, spot USDINR is having resistance in the range of 74.30 to 74.50 where we could see profit booking while on down side the 73.66, the 50 days simple moving average act as support.

The dollar index which measures the greenback versus six rivals, was at 91.775 in early Asian trading, off a two-month high of 92.408 reached at the end of last week. Overnight, both Powell and New York Fed President John Williams warned that the economic recovery requires more time before a tapering of stimulus and higher borrowing costs are appropriate.

The S&P 500 index ended Tuesday near a new closing record, while the Nasdaq Composite reached a new all-time high, led by technology stocks. Amazon had over $5.6 billion in total online sales in the United States on the first day of its Prime promotional event, according to Adobe Digital Economy Index.

USDINR

USDINR June futures continued upside voiding Doji candlestick while prices are near resistance of 61.8% Fibonacci level indicating indecisiveness.

However, the pair remained well above 50 days simple moving average and short term moving averages.

Momentum oscillators and indicators also remains strong on daily chart while on hourly chart it turned overbought indicating near term profit booking.

USDINR June futures has support at 73.80 and resistance at 74.45/74.70. The pair is expected to see profit booking in coming days following overbought condition on hourly chart.

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