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Amid growing fears of the world slipping into a recession, former Niti Aayog Vice-Chairman Rajiv Kumar has said even as the economy may be affected by uncertain global conditions India will still grow at 6-7 per cent in the next 2023-24 fiscal. He further said there is a synchronized downturn in the US, Europe, Japan and also in China and that could take the global economy into a recession in the coming months. He added ‘Thankfully, there is no such prospect of recession in India, because although our growth may be negatively affected by the global conditions, we will still manage to grow at 6-7 per cent in 2023-24’.

Regarding high inflation, Kumar said retail inflation will probably be in the range of 6-7 per cent for some more time. He said ‘After that, my estimate is that it should begin to peak and then come down’. He added that depends a lot on global oil prices as it can continue to rise because of the continued conflict in Ukraine. He noted that ‘But otherwise domestic drivers of inflation will cool down’. Indicating easing of the price situation, retail inflation moderated to 6.7 per cent in October while the wholesale price index fell to a 19-month low mainly on account of subdued rates of food items.

About the impact of a weakening Indian rupee on the common man, he said the common Indian does not use a lot of imported goods or services in their consumption basket. According to him, the rupee which is near its real value is much better for the economy than the appreciated rupee and depreciated rupee doesn't pose many downside risks. On India's widening trade deficit, he said with the negative growth of exports in October, it is clear that the country needs a real policy focus on this area on how to expand its exports of both goods and services.