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In Sep’22 the IPM grew 13% y/y, primarily led by price hikes (6.6%), along with steady volumes (4.5%), with modest growth in product launches (1.9%). On a MAT basis, IPM continues to grow at 6.3% (inline with steady ~6-7% growth the past five months), was driven by price rise (5.6%) and launches (1.6%) whereas the volumes declined 0.9%. Barring respiratory and anti infectives therapies, all other therapies grew in mid to high teens, cardiac, derma and neuro/CNS (17.5-18% each), GI and VMN (~15% each), altogether these therapies form ~46% of the IPM. Pain and anti diabetic therapies (form 16% of IPM) grew over 12%. Chronic and sub-chronic therapies grew 16.1% and 17.3% respectively, while acute therapies grew 9.2% in Sep’22. In MNCs, Merck leads the pack with 71% growth, while Abbott, AstraZeneca outperformed IPM (14%-19%). Domestically, Natco (31.2%), Eris (21.6%), Glenmark (23.2%), Emcure (18.8%), Torrent (18.7%) grew highest.

Most companies recorded healthy growth in Sep’22. Most of the companies grew in double digits, Natco and Piramal HC grew highest at ~31% each. The companies that grew 20-30% were Biocon, Eris and Glenmark. Healthy ~15- 19% growth was recorded for Ajanta, Ipca, JB Chem, Sun Pharma, Zydus life sciences and Torrent Pharma. While only Indoco, Dr Reddy’s and Lupin recorded single-digit growth at 3%, 8.8% and 9.4% respectively

Merck, Abbott and AstraZeneca outperform the IPM. Amongst MNCs, except decline in Novartis, all the other companies grew healthy. Merck leaded the pack with 71% growth, while AstraZeneca (18.6%), Abbott+Novo Nordisk (14.4%) outperform the IPM. Pfizer and Sanofi grew 1-3%, while Novartis declined 1.4%.

Most therapies reported double digit growth. Key therapies such as Cardiac (forms 12.5% of IPM) grew 18.2%, Neuro/CNS and Derma grew 18% each (both form 13% of the IPM). Other therapies such as VMN, GI, Pain and Anti diabetics grew from 12%-15%. Chronic and subchronic therapies (53% of IPM) grew 16.1% and 17.3% respectively, acute therapies grew 9.2% in Sep’22.

Recently generic Sitagliptin, launches decline in September. Post Merck’s Januvia patent expiry in Jul’22, over ~39 manufacturers launched over 45 brands, making this a highly competitive market. Post the patent loss, the volume growth has been 66% q/q and the value growth is 15% in Q2.

Our view. For the past four months, most of the therapies have picked up pace. Footfalls in dermatology, stomatology, ophthalmology, neurology and gynaecology are witnessing good ramp-up. We continue to maintain our positive view on chronic focused companies like Ajanta, JB Chemicals, Eris and Torrent Pharma.

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