In the week that passed by the GBPINR bounce off the 104.70 mark and inched higher - Axis Securities
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USDINR
Technical Outlook on Rupee
• In the week that passed by the USDINR moved lower towards the 81.68-mark courtesy the strong corporate flow. However, buyers were quick to respond and bought in the dips which took the pair higher towards the 82.40 mark towards the end of the week
• The RSI plotted on the daily chart is moving higher indictaing increasing bullish momentum in the pair.
• Looking at the price action in the recent past, the pair has been broadly range bound between 83.30 to 81.80. as of now the pair is placed near the lower end of the consolidation. If the trend of the of the past couple of weeks continues, we might see the USDINR pair bounce off the support level and the head higher towards the 82.50 and eventually towards the 82.70 zone.
Fundamental news on USDINR
• In the previous week, the major driver for the USDINR was the US GDP data showing a positive surprise.
• The upcoming week we have the PMI and the Jobs data, which could spike up the volatility in the pair
EURINR
Technical Outlook on EURINR
• The EURINR has been forming a lower low lower high pattern for the past two weeks, the price action suggests that the pair is moving lower towards the 50 Day moving average.
• The RSI plotted on the daily chart can be seen heading lower towards the oversold zone, indictaing increasing bearish momentum in the pair.
• Going by the price action, the EURINR pair seems to be bearish, the pair has been constantly forming a lower low lower high pattern and moving lower towards the 50 Day moving average. We would recommend selling the EURINR pair on bounce towards the 91.20 mark with a stop loss of 91.80 and on the downside, we might see the pair find support near the 90.00.
Fundamental news on EURINR
• The EcB members words were a bit dovish, after the policy, the pushed the Euro lower.
• In the coming week the economic calendar is light, so we might see the pair majorly react to the price action in the US Dollar.
GBPINR
Technical Outlook on GBPINR
• In the week that passed by the GBPINR bounce off the 104.70 mark and inched higher, which we believe is a relief rally rather than a trend change.
• The RSI plotted on the daily chart the RSI can be seen hovering around the 50 mark, indictaing lack of momentum in the pair.
• Going by the price action, the GBPINR seems to be making a move towards the 50 Day moving average, so we recommend selling the pair if it managed to make a move towards the 106.50 mark and expect a target of 105.00- 104.50 on the downside. We recommend a strict stop loss of 107.00.
Fundamental news on GBPINR
• In the previous week we had the PMI data which came in lower than the analysts estimates, which put a bit of pressure on the Pound.
• In the coming week, we have the BoE policy, where the central bank is expected to raise the interest rates by 25 Bps and take the interest rates higher towards the 5.25% mark. The major focus will be on the forward guidance with regards to the interest rates.
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