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GLOBAL MARKET ROUND UP

* Mix trend witnessed in commodity packs in the past week. Bullion prices extended their losses, and both gold and silver prices hit fresh swing lows. Comex Gold closed in red for the first time on a quarter basis after July 2022; on the other side, Silver closed below the $23 mark with losses of more than 5% on a QoQ basis.

* In the energy basket, crude oil shined in the previous week compared to other commodities. WTI Crude oil prices were close to their weekly highs, mainly supported by positive macro data from the US and lower-level buying from market participants. While natural gas prices retreated last week and closed lower by nearly 1.50%.

* On the other side, the base metal pack moved in a sideways to bearish trend on the back of lackluster demand and mixed global cues.

* Globally, equity markets closed higher in the previous week, and the US market surged nearly 2.0%. Investor sentiment improved after a series of strong US macro data that indicated US economic resilience.

* What to Watch: Investors will closely watch PMI numbers from the US, Europe, the UK, and China. The FOMC meeting Minutes will be released on Wednesday, July 5, which could drive further momentum for commodities. Also, US nonfarm payrolls data and ECB President Lagarde's speech could provide volatility in bullion packs.

BULLION

* Comex Gold prices have underperformed on a quarterly basis as traders pushed back their bets on gold after a more than expected hawkish stance from western central bankers and despite higher interest in the US series of macro data, which indicated US economic resilience, which reduces safe haven demand.

* Comex Silver recovered from its weekly low and closed up by 1.55% at $22.77 per ounce. However, it has underperformed on a quarterly and six-month basis, with losses of 5.50% and 4.96%, respectively.

* The U.S. inflation barometer that the Fed constantly monitors, the PCE price index, increased by 3.8% in May, in line with predictions and below the crucial level of 4% for the first time in more than two years. This led to a recovery in gold prices on Friday.

* CFTC Position: As per recent CFTC data Money managers have increased their bullish silver bets by 334 net-long positions to 11,635 and Money managers have decreased their bullish gold bets by 8,154 net-long positions to 86,472 mark.

* Outlook: In the short term, precious metals are in a correction phase, which will likely extend this week.

* Comex gold has taken support around the 61.8% Fib mark; however, on the daily chart of Comex gold, short-term moving averages have given a negative cross-over around the $1939 to $1945 zone, so it could act as a short-term resistance zone for this week. MCX Gold August contact could move in the range of Rs. 57,405 to Rs. 58,880. MCX Silver September contract has resistance at Rs 71925 and support at Rs 68300 for this week.

ENERGY

* Early in the week, energy baskets outperformed the rest of the commodities. Prices for Brent Crude and Natural Gas are nearly at their weekly highs, mostly due to supportive fundamental signals and bargain buying by market players.

* Crude oil prices are supported by strong US macro data and supply tightness after inventory data showed a bigger than expected fall in US crude and gasoline stocks.

* Recently, series of positive economic data in the US, including a big upward revision to the GDP numbers, indicates the country's economic resiliency is helping to ease some anxieties about a potential recession and the weak demand outlook.

* In the most recent quarter, the price of natural gas increased by more than 25% and hovered above the $2.77 mark on the back of an improved demand outlook.

* CFTC Position: Money managers have decreased their bullish Brent and WTI oil bets by 69,276 combined net-long positions to 193,963 mark as per weekly CFTC futures and options data.

* Outlook: MCX crude oil prices have formed a descending triangle formation on the daily chart, which has trendline resistance around the Rs. 5850 mark. We believe If crude oil prices cross above the 5850 level, a sharp short-covering rally could be expected towards the 6040 to 6100 level. On the downside, the 5620 level could act as a support level for this week.

* MCX Natural Gas July contract could move in a range of 215.8 to 245 zones, with a moderate bullish trend for this week.

BASE METALS

* Most base metal commodities moved in a tight range with a sideways to bearish trend during the previous week amid slow global spot demand and weak macro data from top metal consumer China.

* According to figures released during the previous week, Chinese manufacturing output declined once more in June, while the housing recovery has stalled.

* Rising LME storage numbers for such commodities as Lead and Zinc have also damaged the global forward demand outlook.

* On the other side, as Chinese smelters increase production, the aluminium commodity has performed the worst of any industrial metal this month and faces the possibility of sliding much worse in the second half.

* CFTC Position: Money managers have decreased their bullish Comex copper bets by 2,480 net-long positions to 20,778 as per weekly CFTC futures and option data.

*Outlook: Market participants will keenly watch the PMI numbers from China and the US, which could provide insight about economic health. While rising LME storage inventory numbers also have limited upside for zinc.

* We expect the MCX Copper July contract to move in a broader range with a negative bias this week. We expect the range to be Rs. 699 to Rs. 725 for copper. While the zinc July contract is expected to move in a sideways to bearish trend with a range of Rs. 205 to Rs. 219 for this week.

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