IGI Logo

Higher commodity prices to keep rupee on edge - HDFC Securities 

Indian rupee expected to open lower in line with peers following overnight surge in crude oil prices and risk averse sentiments. The one month forward indicating 15 paise lower opening of rupee at domestic bourses

On Wednesday, spot USDINR gained for third day in row to settle at 76.30 with 12 paise or 0.15% up from previous close. Technical set up remains bullish as long as pair stays above 75.70 with higher side open for 76.50 to 76.70.

Stocks in Asia are set to head lower as a global equities rally stumbled and commodities prices jumped in a market beset with inflation concerns.US Stocks took a breather from their recent rampage with the S&P losing 1.2% and the Nasdaq 100 1.4%, with each finishing at its lows of the day on Wednesday

U.S. dollar was mixed against its developed-market peers, while the yen fell for a fourth day to six-year low. The pound fell following a higher-thanexpected inflation report and after Chancellor Rishi Sunak announced a tax cut. The dollar index, basket of six currencies, expected to oscillate around 99 as geopolitical worries and hawkish fed both supporting it.

Elsewhere, Oil pushed higher after a government report showed U.S. crude inventories dropped, while storm damage to a vital Black Sea export terminal worsened supply risks. WTI crude oil advanced to trade around $116 a barrel as the U.S. readies more sanctions on Russia as soon as Thursday.

The U.S. and the EU are nearing a pact to slash Europe's dependence on Russian energy sources. The agreement, which may come Friday, is intended to ensure supplies of U.S. natural gas and hydrogen for Europe, an official said.

USDINR

Technical Observations:

USDINR March futures finding bargain buyer near psychological level of 76.

The pair has been holding support of short term moving average 21 days.

It has been holding bullish sequence of higher highs and lows on daily chart.

Relative Strength Index of 14 days period oscillating around 50 indicating consolidation in near term.

Derivative price actions indicated short covering as price gained and open interest and volumes declined. Option data pointing maximum pain at 76 indicating pair could hold the support around 76 this month.

USDINR March futures bias remains bullish as long as it holds 75.70 while on higher side resistance placed at 76.50.

To Read Complete Report & Disclaimer Click Here

Please refer disclaimer at https://www.hdfcsec.com/article/disclaimer-1795

SEBI Registration number is INZ000171337

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views. Click Here For Disclaimer