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The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its ‘minutes of the recent monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting’ has said that the headline inflation is likely to witness a spike in the near months on account of supply disruptions due to adverse weather conditions. It said there are risks from the impact of the skewed south-west monsoon so far, a possible El Nino event and upward pressures on global food prices due to geopolitical hostilities.

RBI further noted that domestic economic activity is holding up well, supported by domestic demand in spite of the drag from weak external demand. With the cumulative rate hike of 250 basis points undertaken by the MPC working its way into the economy, the MPC decided to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 6.50 per cent, but with preparedness to undertake policy responses, should the situation so warrant.

It further said the MPC will maintain a close vigil on the evolving inflation scenario and remain resolute in its commitment to aligning inflation to the target and anchoring inflation expectations. The MPC also decided to remain focused on withdrawal of accommodation to ensure that inflation progressively aligns with the target, while supporting growth.