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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.01% at 58811 as growth falters, speculation is rife that big central banks would soon stop raising interest rates. The U.S. Labor Department said that weekly jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 230,000, down from the previous week's revised estimate of 240,000 claims. The latest labor market data was better than expected. China's net gold imports via Hong Kong fell by about 26% in July from the previous month, Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data showed. Net imports into the world's top gold consumer stood at 25.769 metric tons in July, compared with 34.648 tons in June, the data showed. Total gold imports via Hong Kong were down 21% at 30.239 tons. U.S. factory goods were down 5.2% in July versus the expected decrease of 4%, and following a downwardly revised 4.4% increase in June. This was the first month of decline for durable goods after four months in a row of positive gains. The monthly decrease in durable goods orders was $15.5 billion and was driven by a 14.3% decrease in transportation equipment, which was also down after four months of positive prints, the U.S. Census Bureau said in the report. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.18% to settle at 12486 while prices are down -8 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 58685 and below same could see a test of 58555 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 58920, a move above could see prices testing 59025.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 58555-59025.
* Gold stabilizes as growth falters; major central banks to halt rate hikes.
* U.S. factory goods were down 5.2% in July versus the expected decrease of 4%
* China's July net gold imports via Hong Kong down 26% mom

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.59% at 73568 on profit booking as investors cautiously awaited Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s address at the central bank’s annual symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming this week to guide the monetary policy outlook. The greenback came under pressure as Treasury yields fell sharply after data showed US business activity nearly stagnated in August, raising hopes the Fed would halt its interest rate hikes to avert a recession. S&P Global said its flash US Composite PMI declined to 50.4 in August, the weakest upturn in activity since February and below market expectations of 52 as a deepening contraction in the manufacturing sector was accompanied by slower growth in service sector output. Business activity in the Euro Area and Britain also contracted this month, clouding the economic and interest rate outlook globally. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell by 10,000 from the prior week’s upwardly revised value to 230,000 on the week ending August 19th, below market expectations of 240,000. Additionally, continuing claims fell by 9,000 from the prior week’s downwardly revised value to 1,702,000 on the week ending August 12th. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -13% to settle at 7909 while prices are down -436 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 73230 and below same could see a test of 72900 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 73925, a move above could see prices testing 74290.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 72900-74290.
* Silver dropped on profit booking as traders awaited Fed Powell’s speech
* The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell by 10,000 from the prior week’s upwardly revised value to 230,000
* New orders for manufactured durable goods in the US plummeted by 5.2% in July 2023

Crudeoil

Crudeoil yesterday settled down by -0.53% at 6520 as investors balance the supply and demand dynamics in the oil market. On the supply side, Iran’s oil minister said the country’s oil output will reach 3.4 million barrels per day by the end of September despite US sanctions. Additionally, US authorities are reportedly considering a proposal to ease sanctions on Venezuela's oil sector. Meanwhile, official data showed that US crude inventories fell by 6.1 million barrels last week, much larger than forecasts for a 2.8 million barrel drop. Gasoline stockpiles climbed 1.5 million barrels last week, as against forecast for an 888,000 barrel drop. S&P Global released data showing a slowdown in the pace of growth in U.S. service sector activity in the month of August as well as a contraction in manufacturing activity during the month. Eurozone business activity contracted further in August as the region's downturn spread further from manufacturing to services, according to PMI survey data. The S&P Global composite index flash reading fell to 47.0 from 48.6 in July, hitting its lowest since November 2020. The U.K. manufacturing PMI fell from 45.3 to 41.5 in August, hitting a 39-month low, while the services PMI fell from 51.5 to 48.7, touching a 7-month low. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -9.35% to settle at 6234 while prices are down -35 rupees, now Crudeoil is getting support at 6444 and below same could see a test of 6369 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6575, a move above could see prices testing 6631.
Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6369-6631.
* Crude oil dropped as investors balance the supply and demand dynamics in market.
* Iran’s oil minister said the country’s oil output will reach 3.4 million barrels per day by the end of September despite US sanctions
* US crude inventories fell by 6.1 million barrels last week, much larger than forecasts for a 2.8 million barrel drop.

Naturalgas

Naturalgas yesterday settled up by 1.4% at 209.9 following the release of a federal report showing a much smaller-than-expected storage build last week when power generators burned lots of gas to keep air conditioners humming during an extreme heat wave. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added just 18 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Aug. 18. That was much smaller than the 33-bcf build compares with an increase of 54 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2018-2022) average increase of 49 bcf. Last week's increase boosted stockpiles to 3.083 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 9.5% above the five-year average of 2.815 tcf for the time of year. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states had eased to 101.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in August from 101.8 bcfd in July. That compares with a monthly record of 102.2 bcfd in May. Meteorologists forecast the weather in the Lower 48 states will remain mostly hotter than normal through at least Sept. 8. Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would hold around 104.0 bcfd this week and next. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -52.48% to settle at 13355 while prices are up 2.9 rupees, now Naturalgas is getting support at 203 and below same could see a test of 196.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 214.2, a move above could see prices testing 218.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 196.2-218.6.
* Natural gas gains after report showing a much smaller-than-expected storage build
* EIA said utilities added just 18 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Aug. 18.
* Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states had eased to 101.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in August


Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.73% at 731.8 as unease surrounding high interest rates curbing global growth offset optimism about an uptick of demand in top metals consumer China. Data showed that U.S. business activity came to a near standstill in August, the slowest growth since February, as the demand for new business in the huge service industry shrank. China's Yangshan copper premium rose to $48 a ton, the highest since July 7, indicating rising demand for imported copper. A firmer dollar weighed on metals prices, as investors were cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole symposium. The global refined copper market showed a 90,000 metric tons deficit in June, compared with a 58,000 metric tons deficit in May, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. For the first 6 months of the year, the market was in a 213,000 metric tons surplus compared with a 196,000 metric tons deficit in the same period a year earlier, the ICSG said. The global refined copper market swung to a surplus of 213,000 metric tons in the first six months of 2023 from a 196,000-ton deficit in the same period last year, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 19.13% to settle at 5094 while prices are down -5.4 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 729.9 and below same could see a test of 727.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 735.4, a move above could see prices testing 738.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 727.8-738.8.
* Copper fell as unease surrounding high interest rates curbing global growth
* However, downside seen limited amid optimism about an uptick of demand in China
* U.S. business activity came to a near standstill in August, the slowest growth since February

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.21% at 214.75 as U.S. dollar index weakened, and short sellers left the market. The global zinc market surplus increased to 76,000 metric tons in June, up from 67,000 tons a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. During the first six months of the year, the global surplus was 370,000 metric tons compared to a surplus of 241,000 tons in the same period last year. The PMI in the euro zone exceeded expectations in August and recorded 43.7, which was still below the line of prosperity but improved slightly. The market expected a slight improvement. At the same time, the weakening of the US PMI data deepened the market’s expectations that the pace of subsequent interest rate hikes will stop or turn into interest rate cuts. Citibank has bought large amounts of zinc on the London Metal Exchange (LME) and arranged a lucrative deal to store the metal in LME approved warehouses. While the exact quantity bought by Citi is difficult to determine, zinc stocks in LME warehouses in Singapore have jumped 54% to 141,750 metric tons over the past two days, the highest since March 2022. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 15.02% to settle at 3898 while prices are up 0.45 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 213.4 and below same could see a test of 212.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 215.8, a move above could see prices testing 216.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 212.1-216.9.
* Zinc prices gains as U.S. dollar weakened, and short sellers left the market.
* Global zinc market surplus rises in June to 76,000 tons – ILZSG
* The PMI in the euro zone exceeded expectations in August and recorded 43.7


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.73% at 198.45 as China's Yunnan province started ramping up energy-intensive aluminium production after the end of power curbs. Domestic aluminum ingots social inventory is about to fall below 500,000 mt but with the resumption of production in Yunnan, supplies may be gradually restored. In mid-August, the downstream inventory restocking was active, which strengthened confidence over the extended destocking of aluminum products and boosted spot premiums. US business activities came to a near standstill in August and growth hit slowest pace since February. And demand for new business in huge services sector shrank. Data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) revealed that global primary aluminum production in July declined by 0.5% compared to the previous year, reaching a total of 5.861 million tonnes. Global primary aluminium output rose by 1.8% year on year in the first half of 2023, mainly owing to higher production in China, according to the International Aluminium Institute. The discount on aluminium for near-term delivery compared with the three-month contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME) has reached its highest since the global financial crisis of 2008, indicating weak demand and rising supply. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 26.81% to settle at 3826 while prices are down -1.45 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 197.9 and below same could see a test of 197.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 199.6, a move above could see prices testing 200.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 197.2-200.6.
* Aluminium dropped as China's Yunnan province started ramping up production
* Domestic aluminum ingots social inventory is about to fall below 500,000 mt
* IAI revealed that global primary aluminum production in July declined by 0.5% compared to the previous year

Cottoncandy

Cottoncandy yesterday settled down by -0.61% at 59020 amid weaker export prospects and slower domestic buying. However, losses are likely to be limited due to reports of crop damage caused by pink bollworm attack in Punjab. Area under cotton has been already down in year 2023 and now lower yield prospects will restrict the losses in cotton. Global cotton production will likely decline next season (October 2023-September 2024) by three per cent, while consumption may remain stagnant and ending stocks could be lower. Cotton Association of India (CAI) maintained the cotton crop production forecast for the 2022-23 season at 311.18 lakh bales. The total cotton supply for October 2022 to July 2023 is estimated at 332.30 lakh bales. Arrivals in Punjab have been recorded at almost one-third of the previous year, 2021-22. In Punjab the arrival of cotton in the 2022-23 marketing season has been recorded at 8.7 lakh quintal till date this year, while it was 28.89 lakh quintal for the entire 2021-22 season. USDA weekly export sales report showed net sales of 277,700 running bales of cotton for 2023/2024, with increases primarily for China. During this Kharif season, cotton cultivation in Gujarat has achieved a remarkable milestone, surpassing the records of the past eight years. In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 28816.35 Rupees dropped by -0.19 percent. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -10.43% to settle at 249 while prices are down -360 rupees, now Cottoncandy is getting support at 58720 and below same could see a test of 58430 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 59500, a move above could see prices testing 59990.
Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 58430-59990.
* Cotton dropped amid weaker export prospects and slower domestic buying.
* However, losses are likely to be limited due to reports of crop damage caused by pink bollworm attack in Punjab.
* Area under cotton has been already down in year 2023 and now lower yield prospects will restrict the losses in cotton.
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 28816.35 Rupees dropped by -0.19 percent.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.56% at 16080 on profit booking amid subdued domestic demand at prevailing levels. Export enquires has been sluggish that is likely to weigh on market sentiments. Export demand has slowed down with sharp rise in prices. Ongoing sowing and crop progress is major price driver for turmeric and forecast of drier weather in southern and central region has added worries to turmeric crops that will cap the losses. The looming threat of El Nino casts a shadow over the upcoming turmeric crop. Meteorological predictions suggest the activation of El Nino in July, potentially resulting in reduced rainfall and drought conditions. Such conditions could particularly impact yields, like turmeric, that heavily rely on monsoon irrigation. Farmers shift in focus has led to expectations of a 20-25 percent decrease in turmeric sowing this year, notably in states like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana. Turmeric exports during Apr-Jun 2023, rose by 16.87 percent at 57,775.30 tonnes as compared to 49,435.38 tonnes exported during Apr- Jun 2022. In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14585.35 Rupees gained by 0.54 percent. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.03% to settle at 16230 while prices are down -90 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 15924 and below same could see a test of 15768 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 16314, a move above could see prices testing 16548.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15768-16548.
* Turmeric dropped on profit booking amid subdued domestic demand at prevailing levels.
* India exported only 18.3 thousand tonnes in June’23 as compared to 18.5 thousand tonnes of previous year.
* Domestic demand remained subdued as most of the arrivals arrived are inferior quality that will keep profit booking intact in turmeric.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14585.35 Rupees gained by 0.54 percent.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.55% at 56520 in wake of improved global supply condition. However, downside seen limited as supply is limited due to the rainy environment. Cheaper availability of Syria and jeera in global market will lead to fall in export demand from India in coming days. Drier weather condition in Gujarat will also lead to rise in arrivals that will cap the upwards move. China’s cumin imports and exports have caused temporary corrections in cumin prices, with a recent $200 decrease in the international market. The possibility of China purchasing Indian cumin in October-November before the arrival of new cumin adds further uncertainty to the market dynamics. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. Jeera exports during Apr-Jun 2023, rose by 13.16 percent at 53,399.65 tonnes as compared to 47,190.98 tonnes exported during Apr- Jun 2022. In Jun 2023 around 10,411.14 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 25,903.63 tonnes in May 2023 showing a drop of 59.81%. In Jun 2023 around 10,411.14 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 21,587.63 tonnes in Jun 2022 showing a drop of 51.78%. In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 58585.8 Rupees dropped by -0.06 percent. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.37% to settle at 6462 while prices are down -310 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 56060 and below same could see a test of 55590 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 57250, a move above could see prices testing 57970.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 55590-57970.
* Jeera prices dropped in wake of improved global supply condition.
* Cheaper availability of Syria and jeera in global market will lead to fall in export demand from India in coming days.
* However, downside seen limited as supply is limited due to the rainy environment.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 58585.8 Rupees dropped by -0.06 percent.

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