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Gold
Gold yesterday settled up by 0.19% at 50968 on investor concern over the economic fallout of aggressive policy tightening by major central banks, although gains were limited as elevated U.S. Treasury yields supported the dollar. The U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury yield eased off a bit but stayed above the key 3% threshold supporting the dollar. The European Central Bank will meet later this week while the Federal Open Market Committee meets on June 14-15. On Friday, data is expected to show a rise in May U.S. consumer prices and could fuel expectations that the Federal Reserve may continue with aggressive policy tightening beyond July. Investors now look ahead to the May consumer price index for release later this week to gauge whether US inflation has peaked. India's gold imports in May jumped 677% from a year ago to the highest level in a year as correction in prices just before a key festival and wedding season boosted retail jewellery purchases. Higher imports by the world's second-biggest bullion consumer could support benchmark gold prices, but the surge could increase India's trade deficit and put pressure on ailing rupee. India imported 101 tonnes of gold in May, compared to 13 tonnes a year earlier. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.84% to settled at 14388 while prices up 98 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 50742 and below same could see a test of 50517 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 51131, a move above could see prices testing 51295.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 50517-51295.
* Gold prices rose on investor concern over the economic fallout of aggressive policy tightening by major central banks
* The U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury yield eased off a bit but stayed above the key 3% threshold supporting the dollar.
* India's gold imports in May jumped 677% from a year ago to the highest level in a year

Silver
Silver yesterday settled down by -0.09% at 62243 recovering all its losses as risk sentiment weakened in equity markets amid concerns about inflation and interest-rate increases. A sell-off in the U.S. bond market overnight fueled anxiety about a possible economic slowdown. Underlining investor concerns about slowing economic growth, data showed that German factory orders fell for a third month in a row in April, driven by weakened demand and heightened uncertainty due to the Russian-Ukraine conflict. The World Bank slashed its global growth forecast by 1.2 percentage points to 2.9% for 2022, warning that Russia's invasion of Ukraine has compounded the damage from the COVID-19 pandemic, with many countries likely to face recession. The Russian invasion of Ukraine had magnified the slowdown in the global economy, which was now entering what could become "a protracted period of feeble growth and elevated inflation," the World Bank said in its Global Economic Prospects report. The U.S. trade deficit narrowed by the most in 10 years in April as exports jumped to a record high, suggesting that trade could contribute to economic growth this quarter. The Commerce Department said that the trade deficit dropped 19.1%, the largest decline since December 2012, to $87.1 billion. Exports of goods and services increased 3.5% to an all-time high of $252.6 billion. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.88% to settled at 11056 while prices down -56 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 61739 and below same could see a test of 61234 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 62552, a move above could see prices testing 62860.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 61234-62860.
* Silver settled flat recovering all its losses as risk sentiment weakened in equity markets amid concerns about inflation and interest-rate increases.
* World Bank slashes global growth forecast to 2.9%, warns of 'stagflation' risk
* U.S. trade deficit narrows sharply as exports hit record high

Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.61% at 9169 as growth worries overshadowed investor optimism that China would see significant demand recovery. The market has gained support from expectations of demand recovery in China as the country relaxes its tough curbs to contain the spread of COVID-19. Beijing and commercial hub Shanghai have been returning to normal in recent days after two months of painful lockdowns. The quota increase from OPEC+, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, is lower than the loss of Russian crude oil resulting from Western sanctions and fails to address a shortage in oil products. Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, increased its Brent oil price forecasts by $10 to $135 a barrel for the period between the second half of 2022 and the first half of next year, citing an unresolved structural supply deficit. Adding to supply concerns, production at Libya’s Sharara oilfield was halted again after briefly resuming, said two engineers working there. Elsewhere, U.S. crude inventories are likely to have fallen last week while gasoline and distillate stockpiles were expected to have risen. Russia is ramping up oil exports from its eastern port of Kozmino by about a fifth, three sources familiar with the matter told. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.37% to settled at 11052 while prices down -56 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 9064 and below same could see a test of 8958 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 9312, a move above could see prices testing 9454.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 8958-9454.
* Crude oil dropped as growth worries overshadowed investor optimism that China would see significant demand recovery.
* More Covid-19 related restrictions eased in Shanghai and other major cities, raising hopes for a demand recovery
* The quota increase from OPEC+, is lower than the loss of Russian crude oil resulting from Western sanctions

Natural Gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -0.34% at 723.3 on profit booking after prices rallied on forecasts for hotter weather and higher demand than previously expected, a decline in output, rising liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and record power demand in Texas. Power demand in Texas is set to break the all-time record this week, far ahead of the hottest days of summer, testing the resilience of the state's power grid after issues earlier this year and last year's days-long blackout during a deep freeze. U.S. gas futures were up about 142% so far this year, as much higher prices in Europe and Asia keep demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports strong, especially since Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine stoked fears that Moscow might cut gas supplies to Europe. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 94.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June from 95.1 bcfd in May. That compares with a monthly record of 96.1 bcfd in December 2021. With the coming of hotter summer weather, Refinitiv projected that average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 87.1 bcfd this week to 90.0 bcfd next week to keep more air conditioners humming. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.47% to settled at 9664 while prices down -2.5 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 711.7 and below same could see a test of 700.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 738.3, a move above could see prices testing 753.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 700.1-753.3.
* Natural gas dropped on profit booking after prices rallied on forecasts for hotter weather and higher demand than previously expected, a decline in output
* Support also seen amid a decline in output, rising liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and record power demand in Texas.
* Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 94.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June from 95.1 bcfd in May.

Copper
Copper yesterday settled down by -0.4% at 795.35 as doubts over demand in top consumer China were reinforced by a stronger dollar, though there was some support from a hefty drop in inventories at warehouses approved by the London Metal Exchange (LME). Copper stocks in LME warehouses fell 20,200 tonnes to 120,775 tonnes, the lowest since April 14. Cancelled warrants - metal earmarked for delivery - are at 24%, indicating that more metal is due to leave the LME system. According to the Ministry of Energy and Mines of Peru (MINEM), copper production in Peru, the world’s second largest copper producing country, amounted to 170,168 tonnes in April 2022, down 1.7% compared to April 2021 (173,159 tonnes). However, MINEM added that accumulated copper production in Peru in January-April 2022 of 723,917 tonnes was 2.8% higher than a year ago, due to an improved performance from major copper producers. The ministry noted that the Mina Justa mining unit, operated by Marcobre S.A.C., also contributed to the increase in the country’s copper output. Chile, the world's top copper producer, saw exports of the red metal reach $3.76 billion in May, the central bank said. Fund managers have reduced their short positions on both the CME and London Metal Exchange (LME) copper contracts over the last two weeks as China gradually emerges from lockdowns. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.07% to settled at 3654 while prices down -3.2 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 790.6 and below same could see a test of 785.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 798.4, a move above could see prices testing 801.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 785.8-801.4.
* Copper dropped as doubts over demand in top consumer China were reinforced by a stronger dollar
* Copper production in Peru down 1.7% in April, ministry says
* Chile copper exports total $3.76 bln in May

Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled down by -1.77% at 326.85 as market worries over inflation slightly pushed up US dollar index, while the ambiguous recovery of the demand side in China also rattled the nerves of investors. On the supply side, SHFE/LME price ratio stood between 6.4-6.7, and the import window for ore closed. Domestic traders and smelters were less interest in purchasing overseas ores, resulting in extended supply tightness in China. On the consumption side, traders slightly lowered their offers along with falling zinc prices. But the downstream demand is recovering slowly, and the marginal weakness of COVID impacts on the production side has not yet paid off. According to the data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME), last week, there were only three trading days in the LME market due to the British bank holiday and the Platinum Jubilee Bank Holiday. On June 1, the LME zinc inventory continued to fall, reaching a new low of 83,575 mt in more than two years. The LME zinc inventory rebounded, increasing by 4,500 mt to 88,075 mt, which was the highest level in nearly a month. According to the data published by the Shanghai Futures Exchange, SHFE zinc inventory has fluctuated within a certain range in the past three months. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.54% to settled at 1056 while prices down -5.9 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 322.6 and below same could see a test of 318.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 332.6, a move above could see prices testing 338.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 318.2-338.2.
* Zinc dropped as market worries over inflation slightly pushed up US dollar index
* While the ambiguous recovery of the demand side in China also rattled the nerves of investors.
* LME zinc inventory rebounded while Shfe zinc inventory fell slightly

Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.82% at 235.1 weighed down by a stronger dollar, although losses were limited by demand revival hopes on top consumer China relaxing its COVID-19 curbs and declining inventories. Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports dipped 2.9% to 344,000 tonnes at the end of April from 354,300 tonnes at the end of March, Marubeni Corp said. Global aluminium producers have offered Japanese buyers premiums of $172 to $177 a tonne for July-September primary metal shipments, which would be between unchanged and 2.9% higher compared with the current quarter. For the April-June quarter, Japanese buyers agreed to pay a premium of $172 per tonne, down 2.8% from the prior quarter. Japanese buyers said the initial offers were too high, as local spot premiums were hovering at around $140-$150 a tonne, reflecting slack demand from automakers amid a global supply chain crunch. The alumina market transaction was sluggish today, and the alumina price did not fluctuate much for the time being. The supply side bodes ill for alumina prices. Hebei Wenfeng alumina project is running at 2.4 million mt/year, and released output in May, which has had an impact on the northern spot market; in the south-west China, Chongqing Wanbo alumina project is running at 3.6 million mt/year, with another 1.2 million mt to be put into operation in the future. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.79% to settled at 2677 while prices down -1.95 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 232.8 and below same could see a test of 230.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 237.5, a move above could see prices testing 239.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 230.3-239.7.
* Aluminium prices slipped weighed down by a stronger dollar, although losses were limited by demand revival hopes on China relaxing its COVID-19 curbs
* Japan aluminium stocks in April down 2.9% m/m
* Global aluminium producers seek Q3 premiums of $172 – $177/T in Japan talks

Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.51% at 1028.2 on profit booking after prices seen supported in recent sessions amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Support also seen with Rupee weakness export demand is going to be firm also post pandemic global demand is improving. However, upside seen limited as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. The harvest is expected to be almost the same as last year's in Barabanki area but harvesting this year is expected to be delayed. Crop growth is poor this year compared with last year despite use of fertiliser. The plant is about 25% less than the total crop, water is being felt after every three days. Prices gained on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production. Germany's BASF said it would have to stop production if natural gas supplies fell to less than half its needs, as the world's largest chemicals group warned of the damage to its operations from Europe's power crunch. Mentha farming has lost its allure in Uttar Pradesh as farmers struggle without stable price, MSP and government support. High input costs and lack of support price have drastically brought down the return of farmers who have already been struggling to increase their incomes. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -10.5 Rupees to end at 1169.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.21% to settled at 921 while prices down -5.3 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1020.5 and below same could see a test of 1012.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1033.9, a move above could see prices testing 1039.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1012.8-1039.6.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -10.5 Rupees to end at 1169.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported in recent sessions amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic.
* Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.
* With Rupee weakness export demand is going to be firm also post pandemic global demand is improving.

Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.5% at 8036 as the arrivals of New season turmeric are diminishing and exports demand is improving as season progresses. Traders and exporters are expecting the prices to remain stable as Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh turmeric arrivals have also increased. Kocha arrivals are good at markets in Sangli, Hingoli and Nanded regions in Maharashtra. Due to aggressive coverages by oleoresin companies, prices were steady during the month. Panangali arrivals have started in Salem, Erode and Gundalpet markets. Turmeric harvesting in Indonesia is likely to start during June – July 2022. Crop is reported to be normal. Currently, export demand is normal but is expected to pick up. As per latest export figures, turmeric exports in Feb 2022 were lower by 17% y/y at 10400 tonnes vs 12,575 tonnes while in FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb), exports down 20% at 1.37 lakh tons compared to last year but higher by 8.3% compared with 5-year average. Domestic demand reduced particularly with the new season crop supplies from Marathwada region of Maharashtra during April. Export demand too reported sluggish despite report of some queries from Bangladesh. Turmeric all India production for 2022 is estimated at 4.67 lakh tonnes, revised after crop damage due to excessive rainfall in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana during October and November. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8182 Rupees dropped -185.25 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -14.01% to settled at while prices up 40 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7956 and below same could see a test of 7874 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8154, a move above could see prices testing 8270.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7874-8270.
* Turmeric prices seen supported as the arrivals of New season turmeric are diminishing and exports demand is improving.
* Traders and exporters are expecting the prices to remain stable as Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh turmeric arrivals have also increased.
* Turmeric harvesting in Indonesia is likely to start during June – July 2022 and crop is reported to be normal.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8182 Rupees dropped -185.25 Rupees.

Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.28% at 21215 as cumin exports dropped by 60.58% in March 2022 to around 13406.43 tonnes as against 33203.08 tonnes in March 2021. However downside seen limited because of lower production of the spice in the country, partly because many farmers shifted to more lucrative commodities. On daily basis Jeera arrivals in Unjha market were around 5,000 bags, Saurashtra and Gondal market around 800 t0 1,000 bags are arriving. Similarly, in Rajasthan also daily arrivals have remained weak, in Jodhpur market around 1,500 bags, at Nagaur 500 bags and other centres 500 bags arrivals noted. Currently, steady demand can be seen from Bangladesh and other Islamic countries. And due to Bakri-Eid in July further increase in demand is expected. Demand from China has declined due to higher domestic prices in India. Around 32,407 tonnes and 42,788 tonnes have been exported to Bangladesh and China respectively during 2021-22 (Apr-Feb). Cumin seed exports during the current season are likely to remain low as the current crop is very less this time. Cumin seed exports during 2021-22 (Apr-Feb) has declined by 24 percent at 1.91 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.52 lakh tonnes exported last year same period In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 112.2 Rupees to end at 21454.6 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -18.67% to settled at while prices down -60 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 21090 and below same could see a test of 20970 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21405, a move above could see prices testing 21600.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 20970-21600.
* Jeera prices dropped as cumin exports dropped by 60.58% in March 2022 as compared to March 2021
* Currently, steady demand can be seen from Bangladesh and other Islamic countries. And due to Bakri-Eid in July further increase in demand is expected.
* Jeera arrivals in Unjha market were around 5,000 bags, Saurashtra and Gondal market around 800 t0 1,000 bags are arriving
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 112.2 Rupees to end at 21454.6 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton
Cotton yesterday settled down by -2.14% at 45290 as Cotton planting in India could jump as much as 15% in 2022 to an all-time high, as strong prices prompt farmers to switch away from other crops. A 15% rise in India's cotton crop area would lift it to around 13.8 million hectares in 2022 from 12 million hectares last year. India’s cotton sowing acreage declined 2.35 per cent to 10.73 lakh hectare till June 3 this season, according to the first weekly Kharif 2022 sowing report, released by the ministry of agriculture. Currently, sowing in Karnataka & Northern states of Haryana, Punjab and Rajasthan recorded slow progress. Cotton was sown on around 13.08 lakh hectare during the corresponding period of last year. The area coverage has been reported mainly from the states of Haryana (5.90 lakh ha), Punjab (2.31 lakh ha), Rajasthan (1.54 lakh ha) and Karnataka (0.72 lakh ha). Cotton sowing is delayed in Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan due to delay in release of canal water. Normally, the sowing should have been completed till mid of May, but large number of farmers could not sow the fibre crop during the sowing period. As per information, farmers have shifted to other crops as delayed cotton sowing is prone to disease. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -180 Rupees to end at 47090 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.11% to settled at 2586 while prices down -990 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 44810 and below same could see a test of 44330 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 45960, a move above could see prices testing 46630.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 44330-46630.
* Cotton dropped as Cotton planting in India, could jump as much as 15% in 2022 to an all-time high
* India’s cotton sowing acreage declined 2.35 per cent to 10.73 lakh hectare till June 3 this season
* A 15% rise in India's cotton crop area would lift it to around 13.8 million hectares in 2022 from 12 million hectares last year.
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -180 Rupees to end at 47090 Rupees.

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