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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.78% at 46638 as investors flew to safety on worries over the potential contagion from Evergrand and remained cautious ahead of US Federal Reserve's policy meeting. It is unlikely that the world's most indebted real estate developer will be able to make interest payments of $84m on its bonds this Thursday. The volume of the European Central Bank's bond purchases is becoming "less important" as the economic outlook improves and the money-printing scheme becomes a tool for guiding rate expectations, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel saidSwiss exports of gold to India jumped to a five-month high in August while shipments to China fell, Swiss customs data showed. Switzerland is the world's largest bullion refining centre and transit hub and its data give insight into global demand trends. China and India are the largest consumers of gold. In 2020, Swiss shipments to China and India plunged as the coronavirus spread, and exports to India fell again this year when the Delta variant of the virus took hold there. A pullback in domestic prices failed to revive physical gold demand in India this week, with jewellers banking on the upcoming wedding and festive season, while top consumer China saw an uptick in buying. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.56% to settled at 7038 while prices up 360 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 46245 and below same could see a test of 45853 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 46914, a move above could see prices testing 47191.

Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 45853-47191.
Gold prices gained as investors flew to safety on worries over the potential contagion from Evergrand
ECB’s bond purchases is becoming "less important" as the economic outlook improves
Swiss gold exports to India surged to 5 – month high in August


Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 1.39% at 60439 on safe-haven demand as China’s Evergrande debt woes fuelled a sharp sell-off in stocks worldwide. At the same time, the COVID-19 outbreak emerged in China's southeast city, Xiamen, with authorities telling residents not to leave home unnecessarily and halting mass activities. The Michigan consumer sentiment was slightly below expectations, retail sales unexpectedly grew in August while the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose to 332K last week from a pandemic low of 312K. The U.S. current account deficit increased to a 14-year high in the second quarter as businesses boosted imports to replenish depleted inventories amid robust consumer spending. The Commerce Department said the current account deficit, which measures the flow of goods, services and investments into and out of the country, rose 0.5% to $190.3 billion last quarter. Data for the first quarter was revised to show a $189.4 billion gap, instead of $195.7 billion as previously reported. Confidence among U.S. single-family homebuilders edged up in September, reversing a three-month decline as elevated costs for some building materials including softwood lumber eased, a survey showed. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose one point to 76 last month. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.47% to settled at 12870 while prices up 830 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 59659 and below same could see a test of 58880 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 61018, a move above could see prices testing 61598.

Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 58880-61598.
Silver gained on safe-haven demand as China’s Evergrande debt woes fuelled a sharp sell-off in stocks worldwide.
The COVID-19 outbreak emerged in China's southeast city, Xiamen, with authorities telling residents not to leave home unnecessarily and halting mass activities.
The U.S. current account deficit increased to a 14-year high in the second quarter


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.04% at 5208 as worries about a likely slowdown in global economic growth raised concerns about the outlook for energy demand. OPEC+ compliance with oil production cuts rose to 116% in August from 109% in July, two sources from the producer group told. Russia has increased its forecast for its oil exports in 2022 by 6.7% from previous projections to 273.8 million tonnes, the TASS news agency reported, as the country raises oil production. The natural gas exports forecast for 2022 has been revised down by 3.3% to 230.5 billion cubic metres, according to TASS. It also said Russian oil production is seen at 516.8 million tonnes this year and is expected to rise to 559.9 million tonnes in 2022. OPEC+ leading oil producers including Russia have been increasing their oil output to meet the improving global demand buoyed by easing of pandemic-related restrictions. 23 percent of US' Gulf of Mexico crude output, or 422,078 barrels per day, remained shut, the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement reported. Meanwhile, according to a report from Baker Hughes, the oil and gas rig count in the U.S. increased by nine to 512 in the week to September 17, the highest level since April 2020. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 24.3% to settled at 4159 while prices down -2 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5136 and below same could see a test of 5064 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5278, a move above could see prices testing 5348.

Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 5064-5348.
Crude oil dropped as worries about a likely slowdown in global economic growth raised concerns about the outlook for energy demand.
Russia hikes 2022 oil exports forecast to 273.8 mln T
OPEC+ compliance with oil cuts rises to 116% in August

Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -5.13% at 353.1 on forecasts mild weather will decrease air conditioning demand over the next week by more than previously expected. Prices fell even though gas in Europe and Asia continued to hit fresh record highs over $25 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) versus just about $5 for the U.S. fuel, prompting buyers around the world to keep purchasing all the liquefied natural gas (LNG) the United States can produce. U.S. gas stockpiles were about 7.1% below their five-year normal for this time of year. Refinitiv said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to an average of 90.6 bcfd so far in September, down from 92.0 bcfd in August, due mostly to Ida-related losses along the Gulf Coast. That compares with a monthly record high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. About 0.6 bcfd, or 27%, of gas production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico remained shut-in since Ida hit Louisiana on Aug. 29, according to government data. With the coming of milder weather, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would fall from 86.3 bcfd this week to 83.5 bcfd next week as air conditioning use declines. This week's forecast was lower than Refinitiv expected on Monday. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -23.23% to settled at 3526 while prices down -19.1 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 344.7 and below same could see a test of 336.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 366.5, a move above could see prices testing 380.
 

Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 336.4-380.
Natural gas slipped on forecasts mild weather will decrease air conditioning demand over the next week by more than previously expected.
IEA: Russia has the capacity to do more to increase gas supplies to Europe.
U.S. gas stockpiles were about 7.1% below their five-year normal for this time of year.


Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -1.23% at 695.95 as a debt crisis at China developer Evergrande Group spurred a sell-off across markets and stoked worries over global demand. The global world refined copper market showed a 90,000 tonnes deficit in June, compared with a 4,000 tonnes surplus in May, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. For the first 6 months of the year, the market was in a 2,000 tonnes deficit compared with a 67,000 tonnes surplus in the same period a year earlier, the ICSG said. World refined copper output in June was 2.03 million tonnes, while consumption was 2.12 million tonnes. Aurubis AG , Europe's largest copper producer, said on Monday its Stolberg copper products plant in Germany will start resuming some production on Nov. 1. Chile’s copper commission Cochilco forecast the global copper market to be in a supply deficit of 153,000 tonnes in 2021, while it expects a surplus of 190,000 tonnes for 2022. Investors were in wait-and-watch mode with a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting taking the spotlight in a week full of central bank events. China's refined copper output in August rose 1.9% year on year to 874,000 tonnes, its highest monthly level since April. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -15.37% to settled at 2957 while prices down -8.7 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 683.8 and below same could see a test of 671.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 709.9, a move above could see prices testing 723.7.
 

Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 671.5-723.7.
Copper prices dropped as a debt crisis at China developer Evergrande Group spurred a sell-off across markets and stoked worries over global demand.
Copper market in 90,000 tonnes deficit in Jun 2021 – ICSG
Chile’s copper commission Cochilco forecast the global copper market to be in a supply deficit of 153,000 tonnes in 2021

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 1.1% at 256.35 as support seen after Fitch Solutions said demand was expected to be boosted by strong consumption from the steel sector in the coming months. Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research (FSCRIR), in a note, said it had raised the price outlook for zinc this year to $2,900 a tonne from $2,600 since the demand-supply mismatch had been “long-standing”. The price outlook is in comparison with the World Bank projecting zinc price at $2,700 a tonne for this year in its commodity forecast and International Monetary Fund pegging it at $2,828 by the year-end. The International Metals Study Group, said world demand for refined zinc metal was forecast to rise by 4.3 per cent to 13.78 million tonnes (mt) this year, after falling by 3.9 per cent last year. Supply of the metal was likely to rise by 5.7 per cent to 12 mt and refined zinc metal production would rise by 3.1 per cent to 14.13 mt. The Group said global supply of refined zinc metal would exceed demand by 353,000 tonnes this year. Refined zinc output in China has begun to increase after being hampered by government-enforced power-rationing in Yunnan province, which accounts for 12.5 per cent of China’s annual refined zinc output, during May-June. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.31% to settled at 989 while prices up 2.8 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 253.6 and below same could see a test of 250.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 258.8, a move above could see prices testing 261.2.
 

Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 250.8-261.2.
Zinc prices gained as support seen after Fitch Solutions said demand was expected to be boosted by strong consumption.
Fitch Solutions said it had raised the price outlook for zinc this year to $2,900 a tonne from $2,600
The International Metals Study Group, said world demand for refined zinc metal was forecast to rise by 4.3 per cent to 13.78 million tonnes this year

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled down by -0.3% at 1440 on growing concern about China’s crackdown on the real-estate sector. However downside seen limited as supply fears resurfaced after an Indonesian government official said the country was looking at taxes on exports of the stainless steel ingredient. Investment minister Bahlil Lahadalia said Indonesia is exploring the possibility of levying an export tax on nickel products with less than 70% nickel content to drive expansion of the country's domestic processing industry. Stocks of nickel in LME-registered warehouses have dropped 35% since April to 171,714 tonnes. Cancelled warrants -- metal earmarked for delivery -- at 35% and one company holding large amounts of warrants are also fuelling concern about a tight LME market. This pushed the premium for cash metal over the three-month contract to $32 a tonne, up from $15. Global nickel mine production is expected to grow by 6.8% to reach 2,427.4 thousand tonnes (kt) in 2021, after registering an estimated 4.2% decline to 2,272kt in 2020, owing to COVID-19-related lockdowns and restrictions. Fitch Solutions expects nickel mine production to grow strongly between 2021 and 2023, owing to less disruption from Covid-19 and amid a high price environment. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.22% to settled at 1141 while prices down -4.4 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1415.7 and below same could see a test of 1391.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1459.9, a move above could see prices testing 1479.7.

Trading Ideas:
# Nickel trading range for the day is 1391.3-1479.7.
# Nickel dropped on growing concern about China’s crackdown on the real-estate sector.
# Stocks of nickel in LME-registered warehouses have dropped 35% since April
# Global nickel production to recover by 6.8% in 2021

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.82% at 228.55 on expectations that accelerating production cuts in China to control emissions will create large shortages this year. High prices have also been bolstered by concerns about disruptions in Guinea, which has large reserves of bauxite used to make aluminium feedstock alumina. China's aluminium imports in August fell 20.7% from the previous month, data from the General Administration of Customs showed, hitting their lowest since May. Arrivals of unwrought aluminium and products - which include primary metal and unwrought, alloyed aluminium - were 247,547 tonnes, down from 312,086 tonnes in July and down 42.4% from a year earlier. Global primary aluminium output dropped to 5.699 million tonnes in August from a downwardly revised 5.733 million tonnes in July, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Overall, primary aluminium production in August rose 3.15% year on year, the IAI said. Estimated primary Chinese production fell to 3.299 million tonnes in August from 3.327 million tonnes in July, it added. A Japanese aluminium buyer has agreed to pay a global producer a premium of $220 per tonne over the benchmark price for shipments in October to December, up 19% from the current quarter to reflect higher overseas premiums. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.41% to settled at 2080 while prices up 1.85 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 226.1 and below same could see a test of 223.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 230.6, a move above could see prices testing 232.6.

Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 223.6-232.6.
Aluminium gains on expectations that accelerating production cuts in China to control emissions will create large shortages this year
Global aluminium output drops in August – IAI
China Aug aluminium imports fall 20.7% from prior month

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -1.11% at 911 as pressure seen after the news that US House Democrats have proposed a tax hike on tobacco and nicotine to help fund their $3.5 trillion spending plan. The measure may increase current levies on cigarettes, cigars and roll-your-own and smokeless tobacco, according to a plan summary. They have also proposed new taxes on vaping products. Pressure also seen after the news that the Food and Drug Administration has proposed a ban on menthol cigarettes, suggesting it may prompt 923,000 U.S. smokers to quit, according to one study. Goldman Sachs covering the beverage and tobacco sectors, pointed to the potential federal menthol ban as another area of concern for retailers. This year US FDA announced it is taking steps to ban menthol as a characterizing flavor in cigarettes, and ban all characterizing flavors — including menthol — in cigars within the next year. In Goldman Sachs' Nicotine Nuggets survey, nearly 70 percent of retailers said they expected cigarette volume declines to accelerate in 2021. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 28.6 Rupees to end at 1058.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -24.25% to settled at 731 while prices down -10.2 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 904.1 and below same could see a test of 897.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 920, a move above could see prices testing 928.9.

Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 897.1-928.9.
Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 28.6 Rupees to end at 1058.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil prices dropped pressure seen after the news that US House Democrats have proposed a tax hike on tobacco and nicotine.
The measure may increase current levies on cigarettes, cigars and roll-your-own and smokeless tobacco, according to a plan summary.
Goldman Sachs covering the beverage and tobacco sectors, pointed to the potential federal menthol ban as another area of concern for retailers.


Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled down by -1.17% at 5891 as exports of soyameal dropped by 58.93 per cent in August in view of high prices that made the commodity lose its competitive edge in the global market. Chinese importers bought four to six bulk cargoes of Brazilian soybeans early this week for shipment in October and November, an unusual purchase during the peak export period for rival supplier the United States. The deals for up to an estimated 360,000 tonnes of soybeans were inked as export terminals along the U.S. Gulf Coast in Louisiana, the country's busiest crop shipping outlet, have struggled to recover from damage, flooding and power outages caused by Hurricane Ida on Aug. 29. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly commitments of traders report also showed that noncommercial traders, a category that includes hedge funds, cut their net long position in soybeans. China’s Soybean imports are forecast at 101 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 21/22, up 3 MMT from the previous year. The increase is based on growing soybean meal feed use, lower soybean production, and limited imports of rapeseed. Soybean imports for MY20/21 are estimated at 98 MMT, a slight fall from the previous year that is mainly due to decreased pork and poultry profitability. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 132 Rupees to 7095 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.04% to settled at 32660 while prices down -70 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 5805 and below same could see a test of 5719 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5987, a move above could see prices testing 6083.

Trading Ideas:
Soyabean trading range for the day is 5719-6083.
Soyabean prices dropped as exports of soyameal dropped by 58.93 per cent in August.
Chinese importers bought four to six bulk cargoes of Brazilian soybeans early this week for shipment in October and November
In Marathwada, there were concerns about mosaic virus, as well as infestation of pink and American bollworm.
At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  132 Rupees to 7095 Rupees per 100 kgs.

 

Ref.Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -0.63% at 1287.6 as pressure seen tracking weakness in overseas prices due to a rapid progress in the U.S harvest season. Favorable weather over the weekend boosted U.S. harvest, while exports remain capped by terminals on the U.S. Gulf Coast that continue to struggle with power outages and hurricane-led damage as the country heads into its busiest export season. India's vegetable oil imports are likely to contract for the second straight year, the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) said. Imports in 2020/21 marketing year ending Oct. 31 could fall to 13.1 million tonnes, the lowest in six years, from last year's 13.2 million, B.V. Mehta, SEA executive director, said in a virtual conference. Palm oil imports, however, could rise 8% from a year ago to 7.8 million tonnes, he said, as India allowed imports of refined palm oil and cut the import tax on crude palm oil. India's export of oilmeal, used as animal feed, declined 4 percent to 1,64,831 tonne in August from the year-ago period, in view of domestic shortage of the key oilmeal products. To meet local shortages, the government has allowed import of genetically modified (GM) soyameal and it should give some relief to the poultry industry, it said in a statement. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1345 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.85% to settled at 24375 while prices down -8.2 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1281 and below same could see a test of 1273 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1300, a move above could see prices testing 1311.

Trading Ideas:
Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1273-1311.
Ref soyoil prices dropped as pressure seen tracking weakness in overseas prices due to a rapid progress in the U.S harvest season.
Oilmeal exports down 4% in August: SEA
India vegetable oil imports seen shrinking for second year – SEA
At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1345 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 0.23% at 1112.7 as exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Sep. 1-20 rose 36.7 percent to 1,070,096 tonnes from 783,027 tonnes shipped during Aug. 1-20. Malaysia's palm oil exports during Sept. 1-20 rose 38% to 1,089,071 tonnes from the same week in August, cargo surveyor Amspec Agri said. However, this was slower than a 54% monthly rise in Sept. 1-15. Malaysia maintained its October export tax for crude palm oil at 8%, a circular on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board website showed. The world's second-largest palm exporter calculated a reference price of 4,472.46 ringgit ($1,068.18) per tonne for October, up from 4,255.52 ringgit in September. India has cut base import taxes on palm oil, soyoil and sunflower oil, a government order showed, as the world's biggest vegetable oil buyer tries to cool near-record price rises. The reduction in taxes could bring down prices of the edible oils in India and boost consumption, effectively increasing overseas buying by the south Asian country. The base import tax on crude palm oil has been slashed to 2.5% from 10%, while the tax on crude soyoil and crude sunflower oil has been reduced to 2.5% from 7.5%, the government said in a notification. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 0.6 Rupees to end at 1141.3 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.85% to settled at 4783 while prices up 2.5 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1107.8 and below same could see a test of 1102.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1118.3, a move above could see prices testing 1123.9.

Trading Ideas:
CPO trading range for the day is 1102.9-1123.9.
Crude palm oil gains as exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Sep. 1-20 rose 36.7 percent to 1,070,096 tonnes
Malaysia maintained its October export tax for crude palm oil at 8%, a circular on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board website showed.
India cuts import taxes on vegetable oils to calm prices
In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 0.6 Rupees to end at 1141.3 Rupees.

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 1.39% at 8610 as statistics Canada cut its canola production estimate to a 13-year low, due to drought. Prices seen supported as Government has increased the Mustard seed MSP from 4650.00 to 5050 i.e Rs.400 per quintal for RMS 2022-23. Support also seen amid regular demand from the stockists and lowering all India arrivals. In their August report, the IGC lowered their forecast for the world rapeseed production to 70.9 million tons (-2.2 compared to July and 72.1 compared to 2020/21). The rapeseed production in Canada will be 16 million tons (-2.8 and 18.7), 4.5 million tons in Australia (4.2 and 4.1), 2.8 million tons in Ukraine (2.7 and 2.7). USDA estimates Canada rapeseed production for marketing year 2021/22 at 16.0 million metric tons (mmt), down 4.2 mmt (21 percent) from last month, 3.0 mmt (16 percent) from last year, and 20 percent below the 5-year average. Harvested area is estimated at 8.7 million hectares, down 3 percent from last month, but 4 percent above last year, and roughly equivalent to the 5-year average. The month-to-month decrease in area is due to the expectation of weather-related abandonment with prospects for hay being the best use. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 141.6 Rupees to end at 8600 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.33% to settled at 45550 while prices up 118 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 8528 and below same could see a test of 8445 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8666, a move above could see prices testing 8721.

Trading Ideas:
Rmseed trading range for the day is 8445-8721.
Mustard seed gained as statistics Canada cut its canola production estimate to a 13-year low, due to drought.
However upside seen limited after it took several measures to boost domestic supply and curb hoarding.
Government has increased the Mustard seed MSP from 4650.00 to 5050 i.e Rs.400 per quintal for RMS 2022-23.
In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 141.6 Rupees to end at 8600 Rupees per 100 kg.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.08% at 7348 amid prospects of better crop this kharif season along with tepid demand. Pressure seen as the areas where turmeric has been sown have received adequate rainfall and are expected to produce well in the next season. However downside seen limited on short covering following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. Turmeric crops were severely damaged in Parbhani and Hingole due to heavy rains. India is on course to having a normal monsoon, which will recharge the country’s main water reservoirs just enough, and ensure that the most important crops for the kharif season have normal sowing. This is good news for agricultural production and food prices. Pressure also seen as the lockdown restrictions were eased the key Turmeric growing states, including Maharashtra and Telangana reported noticeable increase in mandi arrivals, which augmented physical market supplies and pressurized prices. According to the statistics of the Department of Commerce, Government of India, the highest number of 1.84 lakh tonnes of turmeric was exported during the last financial year 2020-21. In the first 6 months of 2021, turmeric exports declined by 3% to 77,300 tonnes compared to the same period last year, but could be higher in the coming months. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7212.5 Rupees dropped -6.2 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.23% to settled at 12400 while prices down -6 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7300 and below same could see a test of 7250 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7414, a move above could see prices testing 7478.
 

Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 7250-7478.
Turmeric dropped amid prospects of better crop this kharif season along with tepid demand.
Pressure seen as the areas where turmeric has been sown have received adequate rainfall and are expected to produce well in the next season.
However downside seen limited on short covering following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7212.5 Rupees dropped -6.2 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 1.31% at 14350 as the export of cumin is increasing continuously and in the coming days there are signs of increasing the export of cumin in a big way. However upside seen limited as adequate stock with traders and farmers may keep prices under pressure at higher levels. With the forecast of normal rains in the western region during September to November, the sowing of cumin seeds in Gujarat and Rajasthan may increase. In 2021 (January-June), the country has exported more than 1.50 lakh tonnes of cumin as compared to 1.3 lakh tonnes in the same period last year. Purchase of cumin seeds from African and Middle East countries will be diverted from other countries to India this year. With Gujarat and Rajasthan being the only producers of cumin in the country, the most impact of Skymet's forecast is visible on the cumin market. The export of cumin is increasing continuously and in the coming days there are signs of increasing the export of cumin in a big way. However, the freight of container-vessels has increased and the shortage of containers is increasing continuously. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 52.6 Rupees to end at 14347.6 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.39% to settled at 5100 while prices up 185 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 14200 and below same could see a test of 14055 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14440, a move above could see prices testing 14535.

Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 14055-14535.
Jeera gained as the export of cumin is increasing continuously and in the coming days there are signs of increasing the export of cumin
However upside seen limited as adequate stock with traders and farmers may keep prices under pressure at higher levels.
India's cumin exports will increase due to less supply from Afghanistan-Syrian
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 52.6 Rupees to end at 14347.6 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.76% at 25350 as cotton acreage this year is lower by 5.75 per cent at 119.66 lakh hectares, as per Agriculture Ministry’s latest data. The new cotton crop has begun arriving in northern markets, Karnataka and Telangala with prices of kapas (raw cotton) ruling at least 10 per cent higher than the minimum support price (MSP) levels fixed by the Centre for the new season starting October. The overall crop condition is good as on date and, based on the feedback from the 10 growing States, the yield will be much higher this year and quality very good. The demand is slow as most of the spinning mills have covered their needs till December. If the moisture comes down, demand may improve over the next couple of weeks. The latest spell of heavy rains in Gujarat may appear to have saved the State from sinking into a drought, but for the current kharif crops such as cotton, it has pushed back the harvest period by at least 15 days and also weakened the prospects of kharif groundnut due to waterlogging. In September WASDE report, the USDA projected U.S. production at 18.5 million bales, 1.2 million bales higher than the previous month. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -70 Rupees to end at 26490 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.58% to settled at 1856 while prices up 190 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 25110 and below same could see a test of 24860 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 25580, a move above could see prices testing 25800.
 

Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 24860-25800.
Cotton prices gained Cotton acreage this year is lower by 5.75 per cent at 119.66 lakh hectares
The new cotton crop has begun arriving in northern markets, Karnataka and Telangala
The overall crop condition is good as on date and, based on the feedback from the 10 growing States
In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -70 Rupees to end at 26490 Rupees.

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