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Below are Views on Commodity Market Outlook 2023 By Mr. Anuj Gupta, Vice President, IIFL Securities

In the year 2022 we saw that the nifty almost touched near to 19000 levels at  18887 levels which is up by 3.37% from last year. Sensex touched the new record high of 63579.96 level which is up by 3.77% from the last year. In Spite of net outflow of FPI's we saw a positive trend in the indian indexes. thanks to the DII's who were the net buyers. Year 2022 was full of political, geopolitical, policies, inflation related issues.

In the starting of the year 2022 where we were coming out from the covid and suddenly a globe was covered from the geopolitical tension. Firstly with Russian and Ukrain was and after that china and Taiwan. We have also seen the disturbance between Saudi Arabia and the USA. The tension increased when G 20 put many sanctions over the russia. We have also observed the military activity on India and china borders. So the year 2022 was full of Global War scenes.

Year 2022 was also full of commodity price momentum. We saw that Brent crude oil prices touched the high of $131 per barrel. The prices of edible oil also increased sharply and touched the lifetime high of 8,757 MYR per tonne. This year is also full of changes in policy framework by the central banks. All central banks were in the line to increase interest rates starting from the FOMC. To fight with inflation all major central banks  adopt a hawkish policy framework and increased interest rates. They are also going in the year 2023 with the same instance. but they are also expecting that the interest rates may peak out in the year 2023. 

The next year 2023 may also be very volatile but supportive with positive news. This positivity provides support to the global stock markets. In the global contest we are expecting the war may end from the side of Russia as Russia is expecting to be ready to talk with ukraine. Energy prices may come down as economies are producing more crude oil and become self dependent on energy prices.  Interest rates may peak out and china may come out from the covid which boost the global economy.

Currencies were also trading at multi year low levels. The Dollar index had touched the 20 year high level of 114 and Euro, Pound, Yuan and Rupee hit multi year low levels.   Ruppe touched the lifetime low of 83.28 levels. India’s CAD in the April-June quarter, stood at $23.9 billion, which was about 2.8 per cent of GDP. India's forex reserve stood at $563.5 billion. it has declined from $632.7 billion at the beginning of this year. 

In the Indian context the coming year would again be a good year for the stock market.  Inflation in India is at 5.88% and expecting to come down more. Crude oil prices are coming down globally which is positive for the india. The year 2023 will be a good year as we expect bumper rabi and kharif crops like wheat, rice, sugarcane, RmSeed, Soyabean, Pulses and also from Palm crop under edible oil mission. India is coming out from the covid resuming full economic activity.

Fundamentally things are looking positive in the contest of India. FPI's investment may be expected to rise as India is again an investment park for the global investors due to political stability and strong policy framework from the RBI.

For the next year we are expecting that nifty and sensex may outperform. Nifty may test 22000 to 23000 levels and sensex may test 68000 to 70000 levels in the coming year. Positive economic activity, lower inflation, political stability and recovery in the global market would be the major factor for the recovery.

Technically the trend of Nifty and sensex are looking positive. Prices are following higher top higher bottom formation coupled with the bullish candlestick patterns. Prices are trading aboves 10 and 20 (EMA) Quarterly basis. RSI. MACD are indicating positive divergence. They are indicating optimism. Nifty strong support at 17100 levels and then 16000 levels. Resistance 19000 levels and then 22000 levels. Technically it if trades above 19000 levels then the may lead the rally towards 21500 to 22000 levels and above that 23000 would be the final destination for the nifty. Simmiliary sensex has 56000 levels and then 50000 levels. Resistance at 64000 levels and then 68000 levels. Technically if it trades above 64000 levels then it may lead the rally towards 68000 and then 70000 levels.

for the Rupee we are expecting that it may topout around 83 to 84 levels. It has a strong support at 82 and then 80 levels. Resistance at 84 and then 87 levels. We are expecting that It may trade between 80 to 84 levels and may be strong against the Dollar.

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