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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -1% at 50230 as the dollar rose, giving up gains from bets for a slowdown in monetary tightening later in the year as immediate focus turned to an impending rate hike next week. Helping drive some of gold's gains earlier in the week, the Fed was seen slowing its aggressive rate-hike pace in December, amid some signs of a U.S. economic slowdown. The festival of Diwali sparked fresh demand for physical gold in India, while consumers in top hub China were still subject to elevated premiums as supply remained low. The steady demand gave room for dealers to charge premiums of up to $3.5 an ounce over official domestic prices from around $2.5 premiums last week. Jewellery demand was slightly lower than last year during the festival, but investment demand in the form of coins and bars was robust. Dealers in top consumer China charged premiums of $23-$45 an ounce over global spot prices, versus $27-$40 last week. The high premiums indicate strong physical demand and the re-opening of the Chinese economy could still see stronger demand over the coming months. China's gold consumption fell 4.36% to 778.09 tonnes in the first nine months of the year compared with the corresponding period in 2021, the China Gold Association said. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.51% to settle at 11090 while prices are down -507 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 49999 and below same could see a test of 49767 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 50629, a move above could see prices testing 51027.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 49767-51027.
* Gold fell as the dollar rose, giving up gains from bets for a slowdown in monetary tightening later in the year
* Helping drive some of gold's gains earlier in the week, the Fed was seen slowing its aggressive rate-hike pace in December.
* Indian market gets festive spark, China premiums stay high


Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.37% at 57480 as the dollar rebounded after the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-low interest rates and dovish stance. The dollar is seeing some strength as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting next week for more clues about the pace of tightening in the period ahead. U.S. consumer spending rose more than expected in September while underlying inflation pressures continued to bubble, keeping the Federal Reserve on track to hike interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point next week. But there was some encouraging news in the fight against stubbornly high inflation, with other data from the Labor Department showing private industry wage growth slowed considerably in the third quarter. Pending home sales in the US slumped by 10.2% month-over-month in September of 2022, the third consecutive decline and the steepest since April of 2020. Germany's consumer price inflation rose further to 10.4 percent year-on-year in October 2022, a new all-time high and above market expectations of 10.1 percent, lifted by euro weakness, a deepening energy crisis and the continuing supply chain interruptions. Data showed that the U.S. economy rebounded strongly in the third quarter, but it offered some evidence of a healthy slowdown that could have a positive impact on fighting inflation. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 10.82% to settle at 18334 while prices are down -798 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 56864 and below same could see a test of 56249 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 58279, a move above could see prices testing 59079.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 56249-59079.
* Silver dropped as the dollar rebounded after the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-low interest rates and dovish stance.
* The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US was revised higher to 59.9 in October of 2022 from a preliminary of 59.8.
* Pending home sales in the US slumped by 10.2% month-over-month in September of 2022


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -2.02% at 7213 amid rising coronavirus cases in China and widening restrictions across the country. Despite losses, oil prices ended the week with gains, supported by supply tightness, robust U.S. exports, and signs of a rebounding U.S. economy. Data showed that U.S. crude oil and petroleum exports increased to a record last week, signaling an uptick in demand. China widened its COVID-19 curbs as the country reported a third straight day of more than 1,000 cases. OPEC's view that world oil demand will keep rising for longer than many other forecasters predict is not expected to change much in its forthcoming major report, despite the growing role of renewables and electric cars. Another decade or more of oil demand growth would be a boost for producers and OPEC, whose 13 members depend on oil income, and would highlight the need for continued investment in new oil supplies. Consumers and governments urging efforts to curb oil use to combat climate change would be less happy. OPEC made a shift in 2020 as the pandemic hit demand by saying it will eventually plateau, after having predicted years of ever-rising demand. The latest update is likely to keep OPEC among the more optimistic forecasters of oil demand. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -38.36% to settle at 4178 while prices are down -149 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7158 and below same could see a test of 7103 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7295, a move above could see prices testing 7377.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 7103-7377.
* Crude oil prices fell amid rising coronavirus cases in China and widening restrictions across the country.
* Despite losses, prices ended the week with gains, supported by supply tightness, robust U.S. exports, and signs of a rebounding U.S. economy.
* OPEC expected to stick to view of long term oil demand rise


Natural Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -3.45% at 467.9 on record output and forecasts for mild weather and low heating demand through mid-November, that should allow utilities to inject more gas into storage than usual for at least a few more weeks. That price decline came despite the return to service from maintenance of Berkshire Hathaway Energy's 0.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) Cove Point liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Maryland, which will boost U.S. demand for gas for exports. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 99.5 bcfd so far in October, up from a monthly record of 99.4 in September. With the coming of seasonally cooler weather, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 94.3 bcfd this week to 97.0 bcfd next week and 101.6 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for next week was higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday due to an expected rise in LNG exports with the return of Cove Point. The average amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants fell to 11.2 bcfd so far in October due to the Cove Point outage, down from 11.5 bcfd in September and well below the monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March. The latest EIA report showed US utilities added 52 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage last week, below market expectations of a 59 bcf build. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 13.7% to settle at 10134 while prices are down -16.7 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 456.8 and below same could see a test of 445.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 482.6, a move above could see prices testing 497.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 445.8-497.4.
* Natural gas slid on record output and forecasts for mild weather and low heating demand through mid-November
* Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 99.5 bcfd so far in October
* The forecast for next week was higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday due to an expected rise in LNG exports with the return of Cove Point.


Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -1.82% at 652.05 amid prolonged recession fears and expectations of low demand for industrial inputs. Fresh data showed that industrial profits in top consumer China fell 2.3% annually in the first three quarters of the year due to Covid lockdowns, power shortages, and an unstable property sector in the country. Still, looming supply concerns supported prices enough for copper prices to rise for a third straight week. Commodity trader Trafigura warned that global copper stocks have fallen to record lows, with current inventories enough to supply world consumption for just 4.9 days. Freeport-McMoran was also vocal about shortage risks, stating that the current low prices do not reflect the tightness in the physical market. Copper output in Chile, the world's largest producer of the metal, fell 2.6% year-on-year to 439,277 tonnes in September. The global copper market is expected to see a deficit of about 325,000 tonnes this year and a surplus of 155,000 tonnes in 2023, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said. Continued COVID-19 related restrictions and workforce absenteeism, operational and geotechnical issues, strikes, water restrictions in Chile, lower than expected head grades and community actions in Peru have constrained mine output at a number of operations this year. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.28% to settle at 4977 while prices are down -12.1 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 648.1 and below same could see a test of 644.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 658.1, a move above could see prices testing 664.2.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 644.2-664.2.
* Copper fell amid prolonged recession fears and expectations of low demand for industrial inputs.
* Chile copper output falls 2.6% in September
* Freeport-McMoran was also vocal about shortage risks, stating that the current low prices do not reflect the tightness in the physical market.


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -3.42% at 261.25 hit by a stronger U.S. dollar and worries over demand in top consumer China amid rising coronavirus cases. Chinese cities from Wuhan in central China to Xining in the northwest are doubling down on COVID-19 curbs, sealing up buildings, locking down districts and throwing millions into distress in a scramble to halt widening outbreaks. Zinc created a near-term low with strong bearish sentiment in the metals market after ECB raised the interest rate by 75 basis points. Production cuts in Europe because of the energy crisis and low inventories have sustained zinc prices over the last year, but headwinds emanating from growth and demand slowdown are now a bigger challenge for the market. Data shows that social inventories of zinc ingots across seven major markets in China totalled 87,000 mt as of October 28, down 13,000 mt from a week earlier and 10,100 mt lower than this Monday. In the Shanghai market, the arrivals were stable. The trades between traders were brisk as the spot premiums slumped in the first half of the week, and downstream buyers also made a small amount of purchase. Therefore, the inventory in Shanghai slipped. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 49.72% to settle at 3996 while prices are down -9.25 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 258.2 and below same could see a test of 255.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 266.7, a move above could see prices testing 272.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 255.1-272.1.
* Zinc dropped hit by a stronger U.S. dollar and worries over demand in top consumer China amid rising coronavirus cases.
* Chinese cities from Wuhan in central China to Xining in the northwest are doubling down on COVID-19 curbs, sealing up buildings, locking down districts.
* Data shows that social inventories of zinc ingots across seven major markets in China totalled 87,000 mt as of October 28, down 13,000 mt


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -2.34% at 196.5 as the market sentiment was quite bearish after the European Central Bank raised the interest rate by another 75 basis points to 1.5% overnight. Aluminium ingot inventory: The aluminium ingot social inventories across China’s eight major markets totalled 621,000 mt as of October 27, down 15,000 mt from a week ago, but basically flat from the end of September. The figure was 361,000 mt lower than in the same period last year. The arrivals in Wuxi were normal, but the market transactions were sluggish, hence the local inventory began to accumulate. The Gongyi Railway Station in Henan province began to restore operations from the evening of October 26, meaning more cargoes will arrive next week, but the local truck transportation is still restricted. Commodity trader Glencore will buy aluminium from Rusal next year according to its contract with the Russian producer, and so far only about 10% of its current customer base is looking elsewhere, two people with direct knowledge of the matter said. Calls to ban Rusal's aluminium from the London Metal Exchange's (LME) system by U.S.-based aluminium producer Alcoa and Norway's Norsk Hydro had led the market to expect many would shun Rusal's metal next year after 2022 contracts expired. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.61% to settle at 4845 while prices are down -4.7 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 194.1 and below same could see a test of 191.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 199.8, a move above could see prices testing 203.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 191.7-203.1.
* Aluminum dropped as the market sentiment was quite bearish after the European Central Bank raised the interest rate by another 75 basis points
* ECB hiked the interest rate by another 75 basis points overnight to 1.5%, a bear for commodity prices.
* Glencore to stick with Rusal's aluminium in 2023


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.06% at 987.3 as mentha exports during Apr-Aug 2022 has dropped by 14.27 percent at 886.53 tonnes as compared to 1034.14 tonnes exported during Apr-Aug 2021. Exports in the month of August 2022 were around 238.04 tonnes as against 155.04 tonnes in July 2022 showing a rise of 53.53%. In the month of August 2022 around 238.04 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 227.27 tonnes in August 2021 showing a rose of 4.74%. Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Support also seen amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Spot market, support seen after IMD issues Yellow Alert in key sowing area ; light-moderate rain to continue till Sept 4 impacting arrival in the mandi. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -13.1 Rupees to end at 1123.4 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 4.2% to settle at 1215 while prices are down -0.6 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 984.4 and below same could see a test of 981.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 991.2, a move above could see prices testing 995.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 981.4-995.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -13.1 Rupees to end at 1123.4 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped as exports during Apr-Aug 2022 has dropped by 14.27 percent
* August exports were around 238.04 tonnes showing a rise of 53.53% compared to July 2022.
* However, Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.24% at 7444 amid lower demand from domestic spice-makers and stockists amid availability of Turmeric supply form Marathwada region. Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years. Agriculture Minister Narendra Singh Tomar said unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, as on 06th October 2022 Turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares as compared to last year same period 19,376 hectares, down by 12.67% till date. Turmeric exports during Apr-August 2022 has rose by 15.35 percent at 74,393.62 tonnes as compared to 64,493.34 tonnes exported during Apr- August 2021. In the month of August 2022 around 12,147.89 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,810.36 tonnes in July 2022 showing a drop of 5.17%. In the month of August 2022 around 12,147.89 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 11,617.90 tonnes in August 2021 showing a rise of 4.56%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7321.7 Rupees gained 51.15 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.05% to settle at 9595 while prices are down -18 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7342 and below same could see a test of 7238 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7530, a move above could see prices testing 7614.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7238-7614.
* Turmeric dropped amid lower demand from domestic spice-makers and stockists amid availability of Turmeric supply.
* As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares, down by 12.67% till date from last year.
* Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7321.7 Rupees gained 51.15 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.21% at 24200 on profit booking after prices gained in last some sessions due to moisture conditions as a result of higher rainfall sowing may be delayed by 10 to 15 days current year. Current year Jeera sowing is likely to start from October last week or November first week in Gujarat growing regions. However, reports sowing started in some parts of Rajasthan as moisture conditions is less and completed around 2% to 3% in the key growing regions. Current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions. Jeera exports during Apr-August 2022 has dropped by 26.44 percent at 91,505.49 tonnes as compared to 1,24,390.31 tonnes exported during Apr- August 2021. In the month of August 2022 around 24,448.33 tonnes jeera was exported as against 19,866.18 tonnes in July 2022 showing a rise of 18.74%. In the month of August 2022 around 24,448.33 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 17,460.60 tonnes in August 2021 showing a rise of 40.02%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 11.3 Rupees to end at 23951.45 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.21% to settle at 6138 while prices are down -50 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 24065 and below same could see a test of 23930 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 24330, a move above could see prices testing 24460.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 23930-24460.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices gained in last some sessions due to moisture conditions as a result of higher rainfall sowing may be delayed by 10 to 15 days current year.
* Current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions.
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 11.3 Rupees to end at 23951.45 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -2.44% at 28810 as India is likely to produce 34.4 million bales of cotton in the 2022/23 season that started on Oct. 1, up 12% from a year ago after farmers expanded the crop area. India’s cotton output for the season ended September 30, 2022, fell to 307.5 lakh bales (against 360.13 lakh bales estimated at the beginning of the season in October last year. This is the lowest since 2007-08, when the production was 307 lakh bales. WASDE report said world trade is projected to be nearly 1 million bales lower from September, with declines in imports by China, Pakistan, Mexico, Turkey and Vietnam. The agency lowered its U.S. exports forecast by 100,000 bales to 12.5 million bales, while also cutting export estimates for Australia, Brazil, India, Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, Greece and Mexico. "In the 2022/23 world balance sheet this month, consumption is 3.0 million bales lower and ending stocks are 3.1 million bales higher," the USDA said. USDA said its estimates for 2022/23 U.S. cotton crop ending stocks are 100,000 bales higher from a year earlier, with production nearly unchanged at 13.8 million bales. In Gujarat, new cotton arrival increased, and daily arrival reached 6,000 bales of 170 kg. Ginning mills have started buying seed cotton with the advent of the auspicious festival of Navratri. However, spinning mills are cautious as they expect a downward trend in cotton prices during peak arrival. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -90 Rupees to end at 31570 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.7% to settle at 2157 while prices are down -720 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 28440 and below same could see a test of 28060 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 29400, a move above could see prices testing 29980.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 28060-29980.
* Cotton dropped as India’s cotton output seen rising 12% on bigger crop area
* However downside seen limited as crops remain threatened due to adverse weather conditions and pest attacks in major growing regions.
* USDA projected higher year-end stocks and a decline in exports amid a slowdown in consumption.
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -90 Rupees to end at 31570 Rupees.

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