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Gold 

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.88% at 55587 after minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting indicated that the U.S. central bank would likely keep interest rates higher for longer to check high inflation. Minutes from the Fed's Jan. 31-Feb. 1 policy meeting showed policymakers agreed rates would need to move higher, but that the shift to smaller-sized hikes would let them calibrate more closely with incoming data. New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams said the U.S. central bank is "absolutely" committed to bringing inflation back down to its 2% target over the next few years, by bringing demand down in line with constrained supply. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard repeated his view that a Fed policy rate in the range of 5.25% to 5.5% would be adequate to bring inflation down to the Fed's 2% target. Traders of Fed funds futures expect benchmark rates to peak at 5.362% in July and remain above 5% through the year. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell by 3,000 to 192,000 in the week ending February 18th, below market expectations of 200,000. The latest value remained close to the nine-month low of 183,000 hit at the end of January, giving further evidence that the US labor market remains tight in part to reduced labor force participation. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.51% to settle at 11454 while prices are down -496 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 55396 and below same could see a test of 55204 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 55895, a move above could see prices testing 56202.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 55204-56202.
* Gold dropped after Fed’s minutes indicated that the U.S. central bank would likely keep interest rates higher for longer to check high inflation.
* Minutes from the Fed's Jan. 31-Feb. 1 policy meeting showed policymakers agreed rates would need to move higher
* Fed’s Williams said the U.S. central bank is "absolutely" committed to bringing inflation back down to its 2% target over the next few years

Silver 

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.66% at 64351 as minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting showed that policymakers largely agreed to keep fighting inflation with more interest rate hikes. The minutes stated that inflation “remained well above” the Fed’s 2% target and the labor market “remained very tight, contributing to continuing upward pressure on wages and prices.” These updates came on the heels of stronger-than-expected inflation, jobs and retail sales data in the US that supported the case for further monetary tightening. Some Fed officials also indicated last week that they are open to a bigger 50 basis point rate hike at the central bank’s meeting in March. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, continuing to signal persistently tight labor market conditions. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 192,000 for the week ended Feb. 18, the Labor Department said. Claims have been hemmed in a tight 183,000-206,000 range this year. They have been consistently low despite high-profile layoffs in the technology sector and interest-rate sensitive industries. Consumer inflation in the eurozone grew at a slightly faster pace than initially estimated in January, but the annual inflation continued its downward trend, according to data from the European Union's statistics agency Eurostat. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -16.24% to settle at 10540 while prices are down -1087 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 63937 and below same could see a test of 63523 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 65138, a move above could see prices testing 65925.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 63523-65925.
* Silver dropped as minutes from Fed meeting showed that policymakers largely agreed to keep fighting inflation with more interest rate hikes.
* Some Fed officials also indicated last week that they are open to a bigger 50 basis point rate hike at the central bank’s meeting in March.
* The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 1.34% at 6257 amid lingering concerns about tight global supplies. Russia has announced its plans to cut oil exports from its western ports by up to 25% in March, exceeding its announced output curbs of 500,000 barrels per day. On top of that, market participants expect China’s oil imports to hit a record high in 2023 amid rising demand for transportation fuel and as new refineries come online. Stocks of crude oil in the United States jumped by 9.895 million barrels in the week ended February 17th, 2023, following a 10.507 million barrels gain in the previous week, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed. It was the second strong weekly gain since the first week of January 2023, compared with market expectations of a 1.233 million barrels increase. Russia's oil output so far in February has been in line with production in previous months, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said. "On the whole, the oil and gas complex is functioning normally now, oil production is at the level of previous months," Novak said. Iraqi oil minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani announced a crude licensing round that could yield 250,000 barrels per day. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -17.51% to settle at 9080 while prices are up 83 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6169 and below same could see a test of 6082 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6321, a move above could see prices testing 6386.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6082-6386.
* Crude oil rallied amid lingering concerns about tight global supplies.
* Russia has announced its plans to cut oil exports from its western ports by up to 25% in March
* China’s oil imports to hit a record high in 2023 amid rising demand for transportation fuel and as new refineries come online

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -0.05% at 199.7 as investors continued monitoring demand and weather forecasts, with recent projections pointing to colder-than-expected temperatures. Meanwhile, federal regulators approved the partial restart of Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas, including two liquefaction trains, two tanks, and one loop and dock each. Freeport LNG, when operating at full power, can turn about 2.1 bcfd of gas into LNG for export. Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell from 98.3 bcfd in January to 97.4 bcfd so far in February, after extreme cold earlier in February froze oil and gas wells in several producing basins. That compared with a monthly record of 99.8 bcfd in November 2022. Henry hub prices have remained under pressure despite the imminent restart of exports from Freeport LNG's plant in Texas. Freeport LNG, when operating at full power, can turn about 2.1 bcfd of gas into LNG for export. Energy regulators and analysts, however, have said they do not expect Freeport LNG to return to full commercial operation until mid-March or later. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 10.4% to settle at 33928 while prices are down -0.1 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 190.1 and below same could see a test of 180.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 206.6, a move above could see prices testing 213.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 180.4-213.4.
* Natural gas settled flat as investors continued monitoring demand and weather forecasts, with recent projections pointing to colder-than-expected temperatures.
* Investors continued monitoring demand and weather forecasts, with recent projections pointing to colder-than-expected temperatures.
* Federal regulators approved the partial restart of Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas

Copper 

Copper yesterday settled down by -2.66% at 763.65 as the prospect of further increases to U.S. interest rates sent a ripple of caution through markets and boosted the dollar. U.S. economic data has remained surprisingly strong and minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting show policymakers plan to slow – but not stop – increases to rates in their efforts to tame inflation. Many investors had hoped Chinese metals demand would rebound quickly after the country abandoned COVID-19 restrictions late last year. But such demand has yet to materialise and metal is piling up in exchange warehouses. The world's refined copper market saw a three tonne surplus in December, compared with a deficit of 93,000 tonnes in November, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. World refined copper output and consumption in December were about 2.2 million tonnes. In 2022, the market was in a 376,000 tonne deficit compared with a 455,000 tonne deficit in the previous 12-month period, the ICSG said. The minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting showed a broad consensus among the central bank officials to continue raising rates to bring inflation down to their 2 percent target. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 10.85% to settle at 4219 while prices are down -20.9 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 756.2 and below same could see a test of 748.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 777.7, a move above could see prices testing 791.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 748.6-791.6.
* Copper prices fell as the prospect of further increases to U.S. interest rates sent a ripple of caution through markets and boosted the dollar.
* Many investors had hoped Chinese metals demand would rebound quickly after the country abandoned COVID-19 restrictions late last year.
* Global refined copper market in small surplus in December – ICSG

Zinc 

Zinc yesterday settled down by -1.34% at 269.7 amid expectations for supply increase brought by the production resumption of smelters overseas, together with the forecast for consumption downturn. The global zinc market deficit rose to 100,500 tonnes in December from a revised deficit of 66,900 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 119,500 tonnes in November. During the whole of 2022, ILZSG data showed a deficit of 306,000 tonnes versus a deficit of 204,000 tonnes in 2021. Investors continued to monitor the extent of improved Chinese purchasing after the country’s economic reopening. On the news front, the minutes of Fed's interest rate meeting showed that the vast majority of Fed policymakers agreed to slow down the overnight interest rate hikes to 25 basis points at the policy meeting from January 31 to February 1, while it was also stressed that high inflation risk remained a "key factor" in monetary policy. The low inventory has limited the downside room for zinc prices. On the other hand, sufficient raw materials and healthy profit at smelters fuelled market expectations over output growth. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.08% to settle at 2409 while prices are down -3.65 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 267.7 and below same could see a test of 265.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 272.9, a move above could see prices testing 276.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 265.7-276.1.
* Zinc prices dropped amid expectations for supply increase brought by the production resumption of smelters overseas.
* Global zinc market deficit climbs to 100,500 T in December – ILZSG
* Commerzbank sees zinc prices averaging $3,800/t in 2023 on tight supply and reviving demand in China

Aluminium 

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.5% at 210.45 as fears of a global economic slowdown and rising output from China prompted investors to unwind some long positions. China's annual aluminum production in 2022 increased by 4.5% from a year earlier to a record high of 40.21 million tonnes thanks to newly launched capacity and softened power supply constraints. Global primary aluminium output rose 3.4% year on year in January to 5.836 million tonnes, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Estimated Chinese production was 3.44 million tonnes in January, the IAI said. LME aluminium inventory dropped 7,275 mt, with the decline mainly from warehouses in Klang (down 3,950 mt) and Singapore (down 3,300 mt). China has taken significant steps to boost its economy and end the strict coronavirus-induced regime, lifting the outlook for metal demand and subduing some global recession concerns. On top of that, last year's output cuts at key European smelters, including Alcoa's San Ciprian smelter and Hydro's plant in Slovakia, offered prices a solid floor. The aluminium ingot social inventories across China's eight major markets totalled 1.248 million mt as of February 23, up 32,000 mt from a week ago, up 15,000 mt from this Monday (February 20) and 1.567 million mt higher compared with a year ago. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.58% to settle at 3042 while prices are down -1.05 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 208.8 and below same could see a test of 207.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 212.2, a move above could see prices testing 213.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 207.1-213.9.
* Aluminum dropped on fears of a global economic slowdown and rising output from China
* Global aluminium output rises 3.4% y/y to 5.84 mln T in January – IAI
* LME aluminium inventories decreased steeply, mainly from warehouses in Klang and Singapore

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 1.65% at 1044.6 on improving export demand especially from China. Mentha exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has dropped by 17.60 percent at 1,783.56 tonnes as compared to 2,164.56 tonnes exported during Apr-Dec 2021. In the month of December 2022 around 298.38 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 236.22 tonnes in November 2022 showing a rise of 26.29%. In the month of December 2022 around 298.32 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 351.18 tonnes in December 2021 showing a drop of 15.05%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -11.4 Rupees to end at 1172.6 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.11% to settle at 875 while prices are up 17 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1030.5 and below same could see a test of 1016.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1053.2, a move above could see prices testing 1061.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1016.4-1061.8.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -11.4 Rupees to end at 1172.6 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices gained on improving export demand especially from China.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has dropped by 17.60 percent at 1,783.56 tonnes
* In the month of December 2022 around 298.38 tonnes Mentha was exported a rise of 26.29% compared to previous month.

Turmeric 

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 2.33% at 7204 on short covering after prices seen pressure as turmeric harvesting has started in the key growing regions and farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices. In AP (Nizamabad) Turmeric market around 5,000-7,000 bags are arriving on an average daily basis. In the Erode spot market 400-600 bags are reported on a daily basis, In the Sangli district it is around 3500-7000 bags. Coupled with weak demand in the export and domestic market prices are trading at lower levels (in the current season). Turmeric exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has rose by 6.81 percent at 1,24,008.08 tonnes as compared to 1,16,100.75 tonnes exported during Apr- Dec 2021. In the month of December 2022 around 12,039.57 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,398.63 tonnes in November 2022 showing a drop of 2.90%. In the month of December 2022 around 12,039.57 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 14,218.72 tonnes in December 2021 showing a rise of 15.83%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7063.05 Rupees dropped -65.75 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.23% to settle at 12130 while prices are up 164 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7034 and below same could see a test of 6864 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7306, a move above could see prices testing 7408.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6864-7408.
* Turmeric gained on short covering after prices seen pressure as turmeric harvesting has started in the key growing regions
* Pressure also seen as farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices
* The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7063.05 Rupees dropped -65.75 Rupees.

Jeera 

Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.41% at 30875 as harvesting have started in the Cumin growing regions and it is in process which may get complete by the end of this month. As a result, new crop arrivals likely to enter in bulk quantities from last week of Feb or first week of March in the spot market. Some damage has been reported in Gujarat, Banaskantha region due to very low temperature and frost impact. However, overall crop condition is quite good in Gujarat area as compared to Rajasthan key growing regions. Early sown crop has harvested and its arrivals in the Unjha benchmark are reported at 150-250 bags (15%-20% moisture content) on an average daily basis. Jeera exports during Apr-Dec 2022 has dropped by 15.91 percent at 146,065.90 tonnes as compared to 173,703.10 tonnes exported during Apr- Dec 2021. In the month of December 2022 around 12,798.15 tonnes jeera was exported as against 11,235.11 tonnes in November 2022 showing a rise of 13.91%. In the month of December 2022 around 12,798.15 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 12,385.20 tonnes in December 2021 showing a rise of 3.33%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 730.15 Rupees to end at 30752.3 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 3.37% to settle at 4236 while prices are down -440 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 30310 and below same could see a test of 29740 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 31710, a move above could see prices testing 32540.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 29740-32540.
* Jeera prices seen pressure as new crop arrivals have started from some major producing centers
* Global production will be higher at 4.35 lt against 4.08 lt.
* But net supplies from India are projected 7 per cent lower.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 730.15 Rupees to end at 30752.3 Rupees per 100 kg.

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