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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.64% at 50414 as traders anticipated more interest rate increases by central banks to combat red-hot inflation. Inflation has hit multi-decade highs in many parts of the world, forcing central banks to tighten monetary policy. U.S. private payrolls increased by 132,000 jobs in August after rising 270,000 in July, the ADP National Employment Report showed. The ADP report was suspended for June and July while the company revamped the methodology for the data after a poor record predicting the private payrolls count in the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report. The report was published ahead of the BLS' more comprehensive and closely watched employment report for August. The US Federal Reserve indicated its commitment in fighting inflation by keeping interest rates higher for longer. New York Fed President John Williams told that he expects interest rates to continue higher and to remain at those levels until inflation is subdued, echoing recent comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Latest data also showed US job openings increased in July and consumer confidence rebounded significantly in August, bolstering the central bank’s aggressive policy stance. Elsewhere, the European Central Bank is reportedly considering a bigger 75 basis point rate hike to tackle inflation ahead of its policy meeting next week. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.83% to settled at 13008 while prices down -323 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 50277 and below same could see a test of 50141 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 50605, a move above could see prices testing 50797.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 50141-50797.
* Gold prices fell as traders anticipated more interest rate increases by central banks to combat red-hot inflation.
* U.S. private payrolls increased by 132,000 jobs in August after rising 270,000 in July
* Fed's Mester: I don't expect the Fed cut rates next year



Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.91% at 53151 as strong hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve drove investors out of bullion and into the US dollar. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the US central bank’s priority of bringing inflation down to the 2% level, stating that borrowing costs will be at a restrictive level for a prolonged period even if it hurts growth, sending the greenback to over 20-year highs. Elsewhere, the European Central Bank is said to consider a bigger 75 basis point rate hike to tackle inflation ahead of its policy meeting next week, also contributing to the flight away from precious metals. While bullion is widely considered as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainties, higher interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, denting its appeal. Silver is set to close August nearly 12% down. Annual inflation rate in the Euro Area accelerated to 9.1% in August of 2022 from 8.9% in July, above market forecasts of 9%, preliminary estimates showed. The seasonally adjusted number of unemployed people in Germany rose by 28K to 2.497 million in August of 2022, in line with market forecasts. The French economy expanded 0.5% on quarter in Q2 2022, recovering from a 0.2% decline in Q1, and matching a preliminary estimate. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.74% to settled at 27802 while prices down -1036 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 52723 and below same could see a test of 52296 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 53789, a move above could see prices testing 54428.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 52296-54428.
* Silver dropped as strong hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve drove investors out of bullion and into the US dollar.
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the US central bank’s priority of bringing inflation down to the 2% level.
* Fed’s Williams told that he expects interest rates to continue higher and to remain at those levels until inflation is subdued



Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -1.89% at 7197 on investor worries about the ailing state of the global economy, bearish oil demand signals from OPEC+ and increased restrictions to curb COVID-19 in China. API data showed crude stocks rose by about 593,000 barrels, against estimates of a drop of around 1.5 million barrels. The OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee sees the oil market surplus this year reaching 900,000 barrels per day (bpd), up 100,000 bpd from its previous forecast. Under its base case scenario, the JTC sees the oil market in a surplus of 3.1 million bpd in September, falling to 0.6 million bpd in October before rising to 1.4 million bpd in November. The JTC, advises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, collectively known as the OPEC+ group of oil-producing nations, on market fundamentals. OPEC+ also expects a surplus of 900,000 bpd next year under its base scenario, the JTC's report showed. Russia's oil output has exceeded expectations in the wake of the war in Ukraine but Moscow will find it increasingly difficult to uphold production as Western sanctions begin to bite, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said. "In the absence of (western) companies, in the absence of the technology providers, in the absence of service companies, it will be much harder for Russia to maintain the production," IEA chief Fatih Birol told. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 16.07% to settled at 6220 while prices down -139 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7078 and below same could see a test of 6960 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7307, a move above could see prices testing 7418.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6960-7418.
* Crude oil prices continued to slide on bearish oil demand signals from OPEC+ and increased restrictions to curb COVID-19 in China.
* Data showed crude stocks rose by about 593,000 barrels, against estimates of a drop of around 1.5 million barrels - API
* OPEC+ JTC raises 2022 oil market surplus forecast



Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 0.95% at 732.3 supported by above-normal temperatures, which boosted cooling demand and overall higher European gas prices. Gas output in the US Lower 48 states rose to 98.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), its highest since August 8th. Meanwhile, European natural gas prices tumbled from record levels as Germany almost reached its target of gas inventories being 80% full. This was flagged, flows will be halted through to September 3. Gazprom said its due to maintenance and scheduled preventive work. Gas intake by Germany along this route has almost completely stopped. For the next 3 days the only route for Russian gas supplies to the countries of Western and Central Europe will be the transit line through Ukraine .As the European Union races to reduce its dependence on Russian gas, Norway is emerging as a new top supplier. Norway could produce upwards of 122 billion cubic meters (bcm) of NatGas this year, setting a new production record. Norwegian petroleum & energy minister Terje Aasland expects production levels can be sustained through the decade as new projects are coming online. Germany will only have enough natural gas to cover two and a half months of consumption this winter if Russia completely suspends deliveries. Storage capacity in Europe's biggest economy is around 23.3 billion cubic meters. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.22% to settled at 5223 while prices up 6.9 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 710.5 and below same could see a test of 688.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 746.6, a move above could see prices testing 760.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 688.6-760.8.
* Natural gas gained supported by above-normal temperatures, which boosted cooling demand and overall higher European gas prices.
* Gas supplies via Nord Stream from Russia to Europe have been temporarily suspended
* Norway's natural gas production could set new record this year




Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.99% at 649.45 amid a weakening demand outlook driven largely by central bank policy tightening and persistent economic concerns in top consumer China. Latest data showed China’s factory activity contracted for the second straight month in August, while services activity declined to a 3-month low, highlighting the country’s difficult path toward economic recovery. Market were also rattled as the US Federal Reserve committed that it would keep interest rates higher for longer until inflation is subdued, while the European Central Bank is reportedly considering a bigger 75 basis point rate hike next week. Meanwhile, copper remains about 15% above year-to-date lows as low inventories and production cuts lifted prices since mid-July, while the return of power supply in major Chinese manufacturing hubs could boost demand for the metal. Chilean state-owned miner Codelco lowered its copper production outlook for 2022 to a range between 1.49 million and 1.51 million tonnes, citing lower recovery levels at some of its mines and ore grades at the Chuquicamata site. Codelco, the world's largest producer of the red metal, previously expected to produce 1.61 million tonnes this year. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.55% to settled at 6215 while prices down -6.5 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 641.5 and below same could see a test of 633.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 656.7, a move above could see prices testing 663.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 633.4-663.8.
* Copper dropped amid a weakening demand outlook driven largely by central bank policy tightening and persistent economic concerns in China
* Chile's Codelco lowers 2022 copper production outlook
* Japan's July copper exports up 22.5% y/y



Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.63% at 309.9 as in China, the smelters in Sichuan and Hunan started to resume the production since last weekend with the hot weather subsiding. Data showed China's factory activity contracted less than expected this month, although the overall sentiment was tense as manufacturing outlook protracted in the world's second-largest economy. China's official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.4 in August, from July's 49.0 and beat expectations for 49.2. A survey showed China is struggling to emerge from the sluggish growth seen in the June quarter, with risks darkening the outlook as high inflation and the Ukraine war hit external demand. China's southwestern Sichuan province resumed its power supply to industrial and residential usage, and factories there have restarted their production after being ordered to shut down since Aug.15. US central bank chief Jerome Powell warned of a painful period of slow economic growth and as COVID-19 restrictions in top consumer China hit sentiment. The US Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 75 basis points for a third consecutive policy meeting in September as it seeks to combat inflation. Powell also said the Fed will not quickly dial back on monetary policy until inflation is under control. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.79% to settled at 1235 while prices down -1.95 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 307.9 and below same could see a test of 305.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 311.9, a move above could see prices testing 313.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 305.7-313.7.
* Zinc dropped as in China, the smelters in Sichuan and Hunan started to resume the production since last weekend with the hot weather subsiding.
* The Non-Manufacturing PMI for China declined to a three-month low of 52.6 in August 2022 from 53.8 a month earlier
* The Manufacturing PMI for China rose to 49.4 in August 2022 from 49.0 in the previous month, surpassing market forecasts of 49.2.




Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -1.2% at 206.25 as supply concerns eased after power supply resumed in Sichuan province, while weak manufacturing performance in the world's second-largest economy also weighed on sentiment. China's southwestern Sichuan province resumed its power supply to industrial and residential usage, and factories there have restarted their production after being ordered to shut down since Aug.15. China's factory activity in August contracted for a second straight month amid COVID-19 flare-ups, power rationing and the challenges in its embattled property sector. US central bank chief Jerome Powell warned of a painful period of slow economic growth and as COVID-19 restrictions in top consumer China hit sentiment. Soaring electricity prices in Europe have triggered cuts in the energy-intensive production of aluminium. Europe's aluminium output capacity is around 4.5 million tonnes. Of that, about 1 million tonnes has been taken offline since 2021 and another 500,000 tonnes is under threat. Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports fell 1.6% to 364,000 tonnes at the end of July from 369,800 tonnes at the end of June. Global primary aluminium output in July rose 2.06% year on year to 5.848 million tonnes, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Estimated Chinese production was 3.468 million tonnes in July, the IAI said. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.34% to settled at 4422 while prices down -2.5 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 204.6 and below same could see a test of 203 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 208, a move above could see prices testing 209.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 203-209.8.
* Aluminium dropped as supply concerns eased after power supply resumed in Sichuan province.
* China's southwestern Sichuan province resumed its power supply to industrial and residential usage, and factories there have restarted their production.
* China’s weak manufacturing performance also weighed on sentiment



Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.17% at 977.2 amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. However, upside seen limited as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year we forecast production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. Mentha exports during Apr-June 2022 has dropped by 5.75 percent at 493.45 tonnes as compared to 523.54 tonnes exported during Apr-June 2021. In the month of June 2022 around 113.33 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 46%.In the month of June 2022 around 113.33 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 169.93 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decline of over 33%. In the month of May 2022 around 209.90 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 179.76 tonnes in May 2021 showing a rise of 16.77%. In Spot market, support seen after IMD issues Yellow Alert in key sowing area ; light-moderate rain to continue till Sept 4 impacting arrival in the mandi. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 18.6 Rupees to end at 1137.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.86% to settled at 1607 while prices up 1.7 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 974.7 and below same could see a test of 972.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 979.8, a move above could see prices testing 982.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 972.1-982.3.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 18.6 Rupees to end at 1137.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices gained amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic.
* Mentha exports during Apr-June 2022 has dropped by 5.75 percent at 493.45 tonnes as compared to 523.54 tonnes exported during Apr-June 2021.
* In the month of June 2022 around 113.33 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 46%.



Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.45% at 7052 amid profit booking on report of better sowing. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, sowing activity completed around 7,958 hectares as compared to last year same period 7,764 hectares. Sufficient stocks and good sowing reports kept turmeric prices under pressure. Turmeric exports during Apr-June 2022 has rose by 23.44 percent at 49,435.38 tonnes as compared to 40,049.06 tonnes exported during Apr-June 2021. In the month of June 2022 around 18,532.00 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 17,137.15 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 8.13%. In the month of June 2022 around 18,532.00 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 13,206.00 tonnes in June 2021 showing an increase of 40.33%. In the month of May 2022 around 17,138.35 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 13,576.68 tonnes in May 2021 showing an increase of 26.23%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7421 Rupees gained 7.25 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.43% to settled at 12080 while prices down -104 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6962 and below same could see a test of 6874 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7164, a move above could see prices testing 7278.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6874-7278.
* Turmeric dropped amid profit booking on report of better sowing.
* In the ongoing season, no major quality concerns were observed in the crop arrived in the Marathwada region.
* In the month of June 2022 around 18,532.00 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 17,137.15 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 8.13%.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7421 Rupees gained 7.25 Rupees.



Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.18% at 25155 as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks in expectations of higher prices in coming months. Arrivals also observed to be less during the month. Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month supported by decrease in arrivals in Rajasthan as well as in Gujarat. Jeera exports during Apr-June 2022 has dropped by 42.98 percent at 47,190.98 tonnes as compared to 82,762.08 tonnes exported during Apr-June 2021. In the month of June 2022 around 21,587.63 tonnes jeera was exported as against 14,894.62 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 44.94%. In the month of June 2022 around 21,587.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 30,989.86 tonnes in June 2021 showing a decrease of 30.34%. In the month of May 2022 around 14,894.62 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 20,693.76 tonnes in May 2021 showing a decrease of 28.03%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 101.8 Rupees to end at 24787.5 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.31% to settled at 6738 while prices up 45 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 25045 and below same could see a test of 24930 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 25250, a move above could see prices testing 25340.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 24930-25340.
* Jeera prices rose as supply was observed to be less as farmers and stockists were holding stocks
* Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level decreased by 10% as compared with previous month
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 101.8 Rupees to end at 24787.5 Rupees per 100 kg.



Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.39% at 38390 as cotton crops in India, remain under threat due to adverse weather conditions and pest attacks in major growing regions. India’s Cotton sowing gained by nearly 6.54% to 124.55 lakh hectares in 2022 against an area sown of 116.91 lakh hectares in 2021. In Gujarat Cotton sowing grows by nearly 13% with 2,538,383.00 hectares against sown area of 2021 which was 2,250,743.00 hectares. In Rajasthan Cotton sowing witnessed a gain of 3.76% with 652.61 thousand hectares as against 628.94 thousand hectares on the same day last year. In its monthly supply-demand report, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut its global production forecast by 3.1 million bales, and the U.S. output outlook by 3 million bales for the 2022-23 crop year. Hot and dry weather conditions in key growing areas in the United States have threatened the condition of the natural fiber crop and raised supply concerns. The USDA's lower global output estimates also reflected a reduction of about 100,000 bales "as extreme heat in Uzbekistan reduced yield prospects there." However, the agency said it expects the lower U.S. production projections to result in a 2 million bale reduction in exports compared with July, and a 200,000 bale dip in mill use. In recent time, the heavy rainfalls and pest attacks are affecting the cotton crop. In the northern states of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan cotton crop has been affected due to pink bollworm infestation. Whereas in Maharashtra and Telangana excess rainfall in July, over the major cotton-growing districts has affected the crop. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -350 Rupees to end at 46240 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.14% to settled at 711 while prices up 150 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 37890 and below same could see a test of 37400 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 38730, a move above could see prices testing 39080.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 37400-39080.
* Cotton gained as crops in India, remain under threat due to adverse weather conditions and pest attacks in major growing regions.
* India’s Cotton sowing gained by nearly 6.54% to 124.55 lakh hectares in 2022
* USDA cut its global production forecast by 3.1 million bales, and the U.S. output outlook by 3 million bales for the 2022-23 crop year.
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -350 Rupees to end at 46240 Rupees.

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