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Nifty

Technical Outlook

• The Nifty opened with a gap down action tracking weak global cues but recovered most losses as the session progressed amid outperformance from broader markets. Once again the index held its rising 21-day EMA (17490) that has been acting as support in ongoing corrective phase. The shallow correction over past 13 sessions after 15% gains in preceding five weeks will help make markets healthier

• Going forward, we expect the Nifty to eventually resolve out of the contracting range and gradually head towards 18300 in September 2022 as it is the swing high of January 2022. Meanwhile, level of 17200 is expected to act as immediate support. Therefore, we recommend using dips to construct a portfolio of quality companies in the ongoing consolidation phase. Meanwhile, midcaps and small caps are expected to continue their relative outperformance

• Our overall bullish stance is validated by :

• Nifty has given a conclusive breakout from eight month’s falling channel signalling end of corrective phase. Breakout is well supported by sequential improvement in market breadth as percentage of stocks above long term 200 day EMA rose from end July reading of 51% to 60% indicating broad based nature of rally

• Brent crude has given a breakdown below key support line since CY20 lows. We expect a decisive breach below $92 to accelerate downward momentum towards $86 in coming weeks

• The Nifty registered a bullish golden crossover in August (50-DEMA crossing above 200-DEMA) implying major shift of momentum from a medium term perspective. In last decade, in eight out of 10 such instances, the Nifty has generated average 11% return in subsequent three to four months

• The recent shallow consolidation would make market healthy by cooling off overbought conditions (currently weekly stochastic cooled off to 62 from mid August reading of 97).

• We retain the major support base at 16800 as it is 50% retracement of July-August rally (15858-17992)

• In the coming session, index is likely to open on a positive note amid pullback in global equity market and sharp decline in crude prices. We expect the index to continue with its positive momentum and challenge 17800 levels. Hence after a positive opening use intraday dips towards 17680-17712 for creating long position for the target of 17798

Nifty Bank

Technical Outlook

• The daily price action formed a high wave candle with a lower high -low signaling profit booking for the second consecutive session from the psychological 40000 levels

• Going ahead we expect the index to maintain overall positive bias and gradually head towards 40800 levels in the coming weeks being the 161 . 8 % external retracement of the last three weeks breather (37944 -39759 )

. • Structurally the recent rally from June lows of 32290 is strongest in magnitude terms since October 2021 while declines are smaller and short lived indicating an improving price structure . Hence, we view ongoing consolidation as healthy retracement that will make larger trend healthier and set stage for next leg of up move . Therefore, we recommend to use dips amid ongoing consolidation as incremental buying opportunity

• Bank Nifty continue to relatively outperformed the benchmark index in the last few quarters as can be seen in the Bank Nifty/Nifty ratio chart . Within the banking stocks PSU banking stocks has been resilient and showing relative strength which we expect to outperform going forward

• The index has support around 38000 levels as it is the confluence of the last two weeks almost identical low and the 38 . 2 % retracement of the previous major up move (34464 -39759 )

• In the coming session index is likely to open on a positive note amid pullback in global equity market . We expect the index to trade with positive bias and head towards upper band of the last three weeks range 39900 levels . Hence after a positive opening use intraday dips towards 39680 -39750 for creating long position for the target of 39990 and maintain a stoploss at 39570

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