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Rupee Outlook and Strategy

• The US dollar index slipped to its one week lows on Thursday as the key US GDP QoQ numbers fell to 2.6% against its previous reading of 2.7%. Further, a rise in weekly unemployment claims, suggests slightly weaker labour market. Moreover, a decline in longer-dated treasury yields also weighed over the dollar to slide towards the 102 mark

• Rupee future maturing on April 26 depreciated by 0.13% to 82.43 on Wednesday

• The US$INR is likely to trade with a negative bias amid weakness in dollar and improved global risk sentiments. Further, expectation of decline in US core PCE price index (MoM) could also support the Fed to pause its rate hike regime. The pair US$INR, has been hovering in between the lower and mid Bollinger band, suggesting weaker bias. The 20 day EMA at 82.35, would act as key resistance and weaken the dollar towards the lower band support at 81.90-81.74

Euro and Pound Outlook

• The Euro extended its gain on Thursday as German inflation data supported the pair to rise above the 1.09 mark. The inflation eased significantly in march on the back of lower energy price, but it was above the forecasted level of 0.7%. Additionally, reduced concerns in the banking sector has also strengthened the common currency

• The Euro is expected to trade on a bullish note amid weakness in the dollar and improved risk sentiments. Further, expectation of rise in core CPI Flash estimate in the eurozone could increase the pressure on the ECB to further tighten its monetary policy. The bullish crossover of 10 and 20 day EMA is going to favour the positive bias in the pair. Additionally, the support from the oscillator RSI would also help the pair to resume its gain towards 1.0950 mark. On the downside, 10 day EMA at 1.0830 holds key support for the pair. EURINR (April) is likely to hold the support of 10 day SMA near 89.10 and move towards the target resistance at 89.90

• The pound continued to trade higher as decline in the dollar and easing worries about a banking crisis revived investors' appetite

• The pound is expected to trade on a bullish note as it has been moving above the seven week high of 1.2340. The pair is still hovering between the mid and higher Bollinger band channel, which could support the pair to rise towards 1.2450. GBPINR (April) is expected to move towards 101.90-102.00. Only a close above 102 would bring fresh buying interest in the pair and push it towards 102.50. On the downside 101.20 would act as key support

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