IGI Logo

Though economic activity showed a gradual pace of recovery in June 2022, a few external sector indicators are impacting the overall economic scenario of the country amid current geo-political realities, said Mr Pradeep Multani, President, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

Out of the 10 lead economic and business indicators of QET (Quick Economic Trends), tracked by the industry body PHDCCI, 6 have shown an increase for the month of June 2022 as compared with 8 out of 10 indicators showing the uptrend in May 2022, said Mr Pradeep Multani.

GST Collections, E-way Bill, Railway Freight, Passenger Vehicle Sales, Exports and CPI inflation have registered improvement in June 2022, said Mr Pradeep Multani.

GST collections registered y-o-y growth of around 56% in June 2022, increasing from Rs 92,849 crore in June 2021 to Rs 1,44,616 crore in June 2022. E-way Bills have shown y-o-y growth of around 36%, in June 2022, increasing from 54.7 million in June 2021 to 74.5 million in June 2022. Exports registered a positive growth of more than 23% in June 2022, increasing from US$ 32.5 billion in June 2021 to US$ 40.1 billion in June 2022.

Railway freight registered y-o-y growth of 11.6% from 112.5 Million Tonnes in May 2021 to 125.5 Million Tonnes in June 2022. Passenger vehicle sales registered a y-o-y increase of 19.1%, increasing from 231633 units in June 2021 to 275788 units in June 2022. CPI inflation declined marginally to 7.01% in June against 7.04% in May 2022.

On the other hand, the forex reserves registered a negative sequential growth of (-)1.3% in June 2022, decreasing from US$ 601.4 billion in May 2022 to US$ 593.3 billion in June 2022. Employment scenario in the country deteriorated as the unemployment rate increased from 7.12% in May 2022 to 7.8% in June 2022.

The SENSEX (monthly average) registered a sequential contraction of (-)1.8% in June 2022 from 54437 in May 2022 to 53478 in June 2022. Exchange rate depreciated by 0.9% from an average of 77.29 INR/USD in May 2022 to 78.02 INR/USD in June 2022.  

Chart 1: Economy out of 10 based on PHDCCI Quick Economic Trends

Chart 2: Economic and Business indicators’ growth rates: June 2022 (in %)

Note: *Growth calculations of indicators such as exchange rate, unemployment and CPI Inflation are adjusted such that the decrease in the said indicators depicts improvement and vice-versa; figures are rounded off; growth for GST Collections, E way bill, Railway Freight, Passenger Vehicle Sales and Exports is calculated on year on year (y-o-y) basis; growth for Unemployment Rate, Forex Reserves, Exchange Rate, Stock Market is calculated on sequential basis.

10 economic and business indicators of QET include demand and supply indicators along with external and financial sectors indicators, said Mr Pradeep Multani.

 PHDCCI Quick Economic Trends: Growth Performance of Economic & Business activity so far

Note: *Growth calculations of indicators such as exchange rate, unemployment and CPI Inflation are adjusted such that the decrease in the said indicators depicts improvement and vice-versa; figures are rounded off; growth for GST Collections, E way bill, Railway Freight, Passenger Vehicle Sales and Exports is calculated on year on year (y-o-y) basis; growth for Unemployment Rate, Forex Reserves, Exchange Rate, Stock Market is calculated on sequential basis. 

Above views are of the author and not of the website kindly read disclaimer