IGI Logo

Rupee Outlook and Strategy

* US dollar edged up amid rise in US treasury yields and muted domestic market sentiments. However, sharp upside was capped on prospect of Fed moderating the pace of its policy tightening

* Rupee future maturing on November 28 appreciated marginally by 0.03% on Friday amid FII inflows and optimistic domestic market sentiments. Meanwhile, oil importers dollar demand prevented further gains in rupee

* Rupee is expected to appreciate further on rise in risk appetite in global markets and softening of crude oil prices. Further, weakness in dollar, less hawkish Fed and FII inflows into domestic markets will support rupee. However, sharp gains may be prevented on concern over global economic slowdown. Additionally, month end dollar demand from importers may hurt rupee. US$INR (December) is facing strong resistance near 82.05 level as long as it sustains below this level it may slip back to 81.55 levels

Euro and Pound Outlook

* Euro slipped on Friday amid re-bounce in dollar and disappointing economic data from euro area. Further, European Union talks on approving a price cap on Russian oil faced obstacle amid differences among 27 member states

* Euro is expected to trade with a negative bias on expectation of disappointing economic data from euro area and on fears that euro zone my slip into recession. Further, market’s will remain vigilant ahead of ECB President Lagarde speech to get the hint on future monetary stance. EURUSD is facing resistance near 1.0450 levels, as long as it sustains below this level EURUSD may slip back to 1.0300 levels. EURINR (December) is expected to trade in a range of 84.80-85.50

* Pound depreciated on Friday majorly on the back of strong dollar. However, sharp downside was cushioned on rise in risk appetite in the domestic markets and on anticipation that BOE will continue with its rate hike path to combat soaring inflation. Additionally, news that Scottish government cannot hold a second referendum on independence next year without the approval of British government continued to support sterling

* The pound is expected to trade with a negative bias on concern that rising borrowing cost may hurt households who are already grappling with cost of living crisis. BOE rate hike’s to control inflation even into recession will do more harm to currency rather than boosting currency value. Additionally, market will keep an eye on statements from major central banks policymakers to get the clue on future monetary stance. GBPUSD is facing strong resistance near 1.2200 level. As long as it sustains below this level pound may slip back to 1.1990 levels. GBPINR (December) is expected to trade in a range of 98.70-99.30

To Read Complete Report & Disclaimer Click Here

Please refer disclaimer at https://secure.icicidirect.com/Content/StaticData/Disclaimer.html
SEBI Registration number INZ000183631

Above views are of the author and not of the website kindly read disclaimer