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Below are Views On Daily Global Market Update 11 April 2022 By Asheesh Chanda, Kristal.AI

Election Season

France saw the first round of voting in its presidential election over the weekend where the results were as expected- Macron and Le Pen will contest in the run-off on 24 April. Le Pen represents the far right, is happy to maintain close relations with Putin and has risen significantly in the polls over the last few weeks. Macron is still projected to win in the head to head contest but the margin has significantly reduced from prior estimates. Given the delicate balance over Ukraine, this could prove to be a spanner in the works if the far right comes to power in a major European democracy.

Pakistan's PM, Imran Khan, was also ousted after the Supreme Court overruled his move to dissolve Parliament ahead of a no-confidence vote against him. His successor is expected to be sworn in today and is likely to be on better terms with the US and the IMF, which ought to help the country economically in the near term. Australia's Scott Morrison, will aim to be the first PM in recent memory to win a re-election after he called for an election in May 21.

On the markets side, Equities slid again last week as US yields reached for the skies. The 10Y is now at 2.77% on par with the 30Y with the 2s10s stable around 20 bps. Fed Funds Futures are now pricing in a total hike of 2.5% in 2022 (9 more 25 bp hikes) after the slew of hawkish Fed speakers last week. The 5Y breakeven inflation rate rose to 3.5% and the 10Y real yield is almost at zero now (has been negative since March 2020). We have a long weekend ahead with most countries off for Easter weekend. UK has key Economic data out today and central banks in NZ (+25 bp) and Canada (+50 bp) are expected to hike on Wed with the ECB expected to hold on Thursday.”

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