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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.21% at 51517 as a slowing US economy prompted markets to scale back hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve. Data last week showed the US economy shrank for a second straight quarter, fueling recession fears and raising expectations that the Fed may need to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes. The data was released a day after the US central bank raised its policy rate by 75 basis points in a widely expected move, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell saying that it will likely become appropriate to slow the pace of rate increases depending on the flow of data. Meanwhile, data showed the Fed-preferred inflation measure hit the highest level since January 1982, while the monthly US jobs report due later this week will provide more clues on the Fed’s tightening path moving forward. Gold jewellery sales in the UAE grew at the fastest pace in the Gulf region on the back of improved sentiment and buying for festival and wedding season. Demand for yellow jewellery across the country surged by 80% in the second quarter to 13.2 tonnes, the highest among countries tracked in the GCC region, according to the latest data from the World Gold Council (WGC). Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.62% to settled at 15732 while prices down -109 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 51327 and below same could see a test of 51138 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 51710, a move above could see prices testing 51904.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 51138-51904.
* Gold prices settled flat as a slowing US economy prompted markets to scale back hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve.
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell saying that it will likely become appropriate to slow the pace of rate increases depending on the flow of data.
* Data last week showed the US economy shrank for a second straight quarter, fueling recession fears.


Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.08% at 58326 buoyed by a softer dollar, while investors strapped in for more economic readings that could determine the future pace of interest rate hikes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell struck a relatively less hawkish tone following an expected 75 basis-point rate hike. The monthly U.S. jobs report on Friday will also be closely scanned for its likely influence on the Fed's rate hike plans. The annual PCE price index hit the highest level since January 1982, but reversed those gains into the close after a key survey indicated declining consumer inflation expectations. Investors now look ahead to the monthly jobs report due on Friday for fresh clues on the likely direction of US monetary policy. Fed Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said the monetary authority has further to go in raising borrowing costs. Separately, Fed Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said the U.S. central bank is committed to slowing inflation to about 2 percent. On the data front, the latest manufacturing surveys released earlier in the day showed weakening factory activity in Asia and Europe. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.34% to settled at 15514 while prices down -44 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 57897 and below same could see a test of 57467 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 58796, a move above could see prices testing 59265.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 57467-59265.
* Silver settled flat buoyed by a softer dollar, while investors strapped in for more economic readings that could determine the future pace of interest rate hikes.
* Fed Chair Powell struck a relatively less hawkish tone following an expected 75 basis-point rate hike.
* Euro zone factory activity contracted in July


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -5.3% at 7426 as a weakening global demand outlook outweighed signs of ongoing supply tightness. Official Chinese data released over the weekend showed that factory activity in the world’s largest oil importer contracted unexpectedly in July as Covid-19 flare-ups and a weakening global outlook weighed on demand. Data last week also showed the US economy shrank for the second straight quarter, with surging inflation and further monetary tightening expected to keep downward pressure on growth. Markets now look ahead to an OPEC+ meeting on Wednesday, where the oil cartel is likely to stick to its policy of modest supply increases amid capacity constraints and underinvestment in oil fields, keeping the global supply tight. Libya's oil production is at 1.2 million barrels per day, oil minister Mohammed Oun from the Tripoli-based Unity government told. Money managers cut their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to July 26, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. The speculator group cut its combined futures and options position in New York and London by 16,566 contracts to 209,496 during the period. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 82.88% to settled at 6856 while prices down -416 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7236 and below same could see a test of 7046 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7708, a move above could see prices testing 7990.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 7046-7990.
* Crude oil dropped as a weakening global demand outlook outweighed signs of ongoing supply tightness.
* Libya's unity government's oil minister says oil production is at 1.2 mln bpd
* Speculators cut U.S. crude oil net longs – CFTC

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