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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.57% at 60511 on profit booking as investors digest a gloomy economic outlook and uncertainty regarding monetary policy. Fresh economic data for the US including the ISM PMIs, ADP and JOLTS report showed tighter financial conditions are leading to a slowdown in the US economy, with markets seeing a greater probability the Fed will leave the funds rate steady next month. Also, both the RBI and the RBA paused the rate hikes this month. On the other hand, both the ECB and the BoE are likely to tighten further while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly delivered a 50bps rate hike. Physical gold demand in key Asian hubs hit a pause with high domestic prices forcing dealers in some markets to lure customers with discounts. In top buyer China, the bullion changed hands at anywhere between on par with global benchmark spot prices to $12 an ounce premiums. Chinese dealers offered discounts for the first time in months last week. Hong Kong and Singapore traders sold bullion in a range of $2 an ounce discounts to $2 premiums over the global spot rates. In India, dealers offered discounts of up to $32 an ounce over official domestic prices versus last week's $26 discounts. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.04% to settle at 18810 while prices are down -345 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 60282 and below same could see a test of 60053 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 60788, a move above could see prices testing 61065.
Trading Ideas:
*Gold trading range for the day is 60053-61065.
* Gold dropped on profit booking as investors digest a gloomy economic outlook and uncertainty regarding monetary policy.
* Fresh economic data for the US report showed tighter financial conditions are leading to a slowdown in the US economy
* Physical gold demand hit a pause with high domestic prices forcing dealers in some markets to lure customers with discounts


Silver
Silver yesterday settled up by 0.02% at 74570 as bets increased that the Federal Reserve may be forced to slow down or altogether stop the tightening cycle. Fresh US job openings data pointed to a slowdown in the labor market while an ISM survey showed manufacturing activity contracted for the fifth month in a sign that tighter credit conditions are already hurting the economy. The dollar index, hitting the highest level so far this month, after the NFP report renewed bets the Fed could move on with another 25bps hike next month. Prior to the release, the odds of a rate hike were falling and most investors were expecting the Fed to halt the increases. However, the payrolls report showed NFP near expectations at 236K, while the jobless rate unexpectedly fell and the annual pay growth slowed more than expected. However, the economic outlook for the US remains challenging, with data released during the week including jobless claims, ISM PMIs, ADP and the JOLTS report showing tighter financial conditions are already hurting the economy. The demand for industrial metals is set to rebound in China as the country recently entered the post-covid recovery stage. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.94% to settle at 16159 while prices are up 15 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 73924 and below same could see a test of 73278 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 75018, a move above could see prices testing 75466.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 73278-75466.
* Silver settled flat as bets increased that Fed may be forced to slow down.
* The dollar index, hitting the highest level so far this month
* The US NFP report renewed bets the Fed could move on with another 25bps hike next month.


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.18% at 6593 as more data pointed to a potential recession that could hurt energy demand. Data out of the US showed the services sector growth slowed to a 3-month low, private companies added fewer jobs than expected and factory orders fell for the 2nd month, suggesting that the economy could be cooling. Prices rose about 6% in the week after OPEC+ unexpectedly announced that it will reduce output by 1.16 million barrels per day from May until the end of 2023. Also, the latest EIA data showed larger-than-expected draws in US crude and fuel stockpiles. US crude oil inventories fell by 3.739 million barrels last week, more than market expectations of a 2.329 million barrel decrease. Gasoline stocks declined by 4.119 million and distillate stockpiles by 3.632 million. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has raised the prices of its flagship crude for Asian buyers for the third straight month. U.S. field production of crude oil rose in January to 12.46 million barrels per day, the highest since March 2020, Energy Information Administration data showed. U.S. product supplied of crude and petroleum products – a proxy for demand – rose to 19.54 million bpd, highest since November 2022, EIA data showed. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -8.56% to settle at 6090 while prices are down -12 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6537 and below same could see a test of 6482 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6637, a move above could see prices testing 6682.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6482-6682.
* Crude oil dropped as more data pointed to a potential recession that could hurt energy demand.
* Prices rose about 6% in the week after OPEC+ unexpectedly reduce output by 1.16 mbpd.
* The latest EIA data showed larger-than-expected draws in US crude and fuel stockpiles.


Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -4.03% at 169.2 on rising output and forecast for milder weather and less heating demand. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled 23 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended March 23. That was slightly higher than the 21-bcf withdrawal forecast in a poll, and compares with 24 bcf withdrawal during the same week a year ago and a five-year (2018-2022) average of 0 bcf. Freeport LNG's export plant, which shut in June 2022 after a fire, was on track to pull in about 2.24 bcfd of gas on Thursday, slightly down from 2.26 bcfd on Wednesday, according to data provider Refinitiv. Natural gas inventories are nearing the end of winter well above average, causing futures prices to slump close to their lowest level in real terms in three decades. Despite several days of shattering cold immediately before Christmas, the winter was fairly mild across the main population centres of the United States, depressing gas consumption. Working stocks in underground storage amounted to 1,900 billion cubic feet, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the highest for the time of year since 2020 and before that 2017. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 19.19% to settle at 51107 while prices are down -7.1 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 164.7 and below same could see a test of 160.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 177, a move above could see prices testing 184.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 160.3-184.9.
* Natural gas slipped on rising output and forecast for milder weather and less heating demand.
* EIA said utilities pulled 23 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended March 23.
* However, forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected limited the upside.



Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.55% at 771.1 supported by supply concerns amid tightening inventories and production disruptions, on the back of improving demand from top consumer China and a shaky U.S. dollar. A court has ruled that Ecuador failed to give local communities in a highly biodiverse province their right to an environmental consultation on a joint copper mining venture by state-run ENAMI and a subsidiary of Chile's Codelco, lawyers for the communities said, and the project must be suspended. China's services activity in March revved up at the quickest pace in 2-1/2 years on robust new orders and job creation and a consumption-led post-COVID recovery, a private-sector survey showed. However, support for copper comes from stocks in LME registered warehouses, which at 65,250 tonnes have dropped almost 15% over the past two weeks. Cancelled warrants – metal earmarked for delivery – at around 47% of the total suggest more metal is due to leave the LME system, leaving on warrant stocks at 34,350 tonnes, the lowest since late 2021. Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.5 % from last Friday, the exchange said. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.17% to settle at 3726 while prices are up 4.2 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 765.5 and below same could see a test of 759.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 775, a move above could see prices testing 778.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 759.7-778.7.
* Copper gains on tightening inventory, improved China demand
* On warrant copper stocks on the exchange fell to the lowest since 2021.
* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.5 % from last Friday.


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.6% at 247.3 amid continuing concerns about global economic growth and a stronger dollar, although the fall was constrained by support from low inventories. General downward sentiment and continued lack of momentum out of China is bringing metals down to their fundamental levels, erasing some of the risk-on sentiment that we saw take place last week. Weak U.S. manufacturing activity, which slumped to the lowest level in nearly three-years in March, weighed on prices. Toho Zinc Co Ltd, plans to produce 38,800 tonnes of refined zinc in the first half of the 2023/24 financial year, down 1.5% from a year earlier. Chinese spot treatment charges for zinc concentrate slipped from their highest in more than two years in March and will likely fall further on high smelter utilisation rates and a demand recovery in its biggest consuming market. An over-supplied zinc concentrate market in China had pushed spot treatment charges (TCs) to 5,100 yuan ($742) a tonne in January-February, as miners were prepared to pay more for smelters to process the excess of material into refined metal. The global zinc market deficit fell to 18,300 tonnes in January from a revised deficit of 80,300 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 4.3% to settle at 3664 while prices are down -1.5 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 246.2 and below same could see a test of 244.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 249, a move above could see prices testing 250.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 244.9-250.5.
* Zinc prices fell amid continuing concerns about global economic growth
* Weak U.S. manufacturing activity, which slumped to the lowest level in nearly three-years in March, weighed on prices.
* Downward sentiment and continued lack of momentum out of China is bringing metals down



Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.36% at 206.55 as the 780,000 mt of aluminium capacity in Yunnan that was previously curtailed has not yet resumed production. On the demand side, downstream operating rates improved. China's factory activity growth stalled in March, weighed by slowing production and weaker global demand and adding to uncertainty about a post-COVID recovery, a private sector survey showed. The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 50.0 in March. Social inventory of aluminium ingots continued to drop. With little disruption to supply and demand, overseas crude oil production cuts may provide upward momentum to aluminium prices some in the short term. China will safeguard the yuan and financial stability, central bank governor Yi Gang told. Yi's remarks in the wake of the global banking crisis were quoted in a statement posted on the People's Bank of China. China had taken a series of measures to curb financial risks and to guard against systemic financial risks, Yi said. The aluminium ingot social inventories across China’s eight major markets totalled 1.04 million mt as of April 6, down 50,000 mt from a week ago and 28,000 mt from this Monday April 3. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.74% to settle at 2858 while prices are up 0.75 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 205.8 and below same could see a test of 204.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 207.4, a move above could see prices testing 208.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 204.9-208.1.
* Aluminum gains as production not yet resumed in Yunnan
* The aluminium ingot social inventories across China totalled 1.04 million mt as of April 6, down 50,000 mt
* China will safeguard the yuan and financial stability


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.01% at 992 as demand was poor due to recession fears and global banking turmoil. The collapse of California’s Silicon Valley Bank and troubles at Swiss lender Credit Suisse have shaken the financial markets and dampened the outlook for oil consumption. Market participants expect prices to remain under pressure until demand recovers and market sentiment improves. Mentha exports during Apr-Jan 2023, dropped by 13.65 percent to 2,016.77 tonnes as compared to 2,335.63 tonnes exported during Apr-Jan 2022. In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 298.38 tonnes in December 2022 showing a drop of 21.84%. In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 171.07 tonnes in January 2022 showing a rise of 36.32%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -0.9 Rupees to end at 1168.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.49% to settle at 663 while prices are up 0.1 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 987.9 and below same could see a test of 983.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 997, a move above could see prices testing 1001.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 983.7-1001.9.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -0.9 Rupees to end at 1168.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped as demand was poor due to recession fears and global banking turmoil.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Jan 2023, dropped by 13.65 percent to 2,016.77 tonnes
* In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes was exported against 298.38 tonnes in December 2022 showing a drop of 21.84%.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.14% at 7024 on short covering as export demand is good amidst lukewarm domestic demand. Turmeric harvesting has started in the key growing regions and farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices. In AP (Nizamabad) Turmeric market around 5,000-7,000 bags are arriving on an average daily basis. In the Erode spot market 400-600 bags are reported on a daily basis, In the Sangli district it is around 3500-7000 bags. Coupled with weak demand in the export and domestic market prices are trading at lower levels (in the current season). Turmeric exports during Apr-Jan 2023, rose by 7.76 percent at 1,36,492.59 tonnes as compared to 1,26,659.01 tonnes exported during Apr-Jan 2022. In January 2023 around 12,484.25 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,039.57 tonnes in December 2022 showing a rise of 3.69%. In January 2023 around 12,484.25 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 10,558.26 tonnes in January 2022 showing a rise of 18.24%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6956.25 Rupees gained 55.2 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 19.49% to settle at 9535 while prices are up 10 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6996 and below same could see a test of 6970 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7058, a move above could see prices testing 7094.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6970-7094.
* Turmeric gained on short covering as export demand is good amidst lukewarm domestic demand.
* Farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices
* The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6956.25 Rupees gained 55.2 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 2.25% at 37515 as crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms in Rajasthan, the major producing state. The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers. The jeera growing regions in southern and north-western parts of Rajasthan in the districts of Alwar, Jaisalmer, Jaipur, Bikaner, Bhilwara, and Barmer have received a fresh spell of unseasonal rains in the past week, triggering concerns on the crop condition. For the jeera crop, moist or cloudy weather impacts the quality of the seed, which often turns blackish, indicating spoilage. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. One bag holds 55kg. This will result in a demand-supply imbalance. Currently, at least 70% of the crop in Rajasthan and around 30% in Gujarat have yet to be harvested. Because of the rain in both states, the total yield will be reduced. The cumin crop was destroyed by two bouts of unseasonal rainfall during the harvest season. In comparison to the planned arrival of 70 lakh bags, the stock will be reduced to 60-65 lakh bags, with a carry-forward stock of 5 lakh bags from last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 447.6 Rupees to end at 36212.8 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 9.61% to settle at 6705 while prices are up 825 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 36885 and below same could see a test of 36250 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 37900, a move above could see prices testing 38280.
Trading Ideas:
*Jeera trading range for the day is 36250-38280.
* Jeera rose as crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms in Rajasthan, the major producing state.
*The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season, which has boosted the demand from domestic and export buyers.
* Cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 447.6 Rupees to end at 36212.8 Rupees per 100 kg.

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