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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.59% at 47622 ahead of a crucial U.S. Federal Reserve meeting that could offer cues on future interest rate hikes amid rising inflationary pressures. The Fed is expected to approve plans to scale back its bond-buying programme on Wednesday, when it concludes a two-day policy meeting. Markets will also be watching the Bank of England policy meeting on Thursday as investors weigh chances of the first interest rate hike by a major central bank since the pandemic. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the United States expected China to meet its commitments under the Phase 1 trade deal signed under former President Donald Trump, but could look at eventually lowering some tariffs in a reciprocal way. Yellen told in an interview that tariffs tend to boost domestic prices and raise costs to consumers and to firms from inputs such as aluminum and steel, which meant lowering tariffs would have a "disinflationary" effect. The Treasury secretary and other officials insist that the current spike in prices in the United States is a result of supply chain bottlenecks and higher energy prices, but say inflation should ease in the second half of 2022. China's gold consumption in the first nine months of 2021 rose 48.4% on the year to 813.59 tonnes, the China Gold Association said, as demand recovered from a pandemic-affected 2020. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.04% to settled at 8662 while prices down -281 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 47515 and below same could see a test of 47409 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 47806, a move above could see prices testing 47991.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 47409-47991.

* Gold prices dropped ahead of a crucial Fed meeting that could offer cues on future interest rate hikes amid rising inflationary pressures.

* The Fed is expected to approve plans to scale back its bond-buying programme on Wednesday, when it concludes a two-day policy meeting.

* Markets will also be watching the BOE policy meeting on Thursday as investors weigh chances of the first interest rate hike.


Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -2.42% at 63223 amid rising expectations for earlier US interest rate hikes after the latest inflation data rose faster than expected. The headline inflation jumped 4.4% YoY while the Fed-preferred core inflation increased 3.6% YoY in September, challenging the Federal Reserve’s “transitory” narrative. With wages flashing inflation signals and economic growth facing mounting headwinds, the Fed may try to maintain a balance between containing inflation and giving the economy as much time as possible to restore the jobs lost since the pandemic. The Bank of England's meeting takes place on Thursday, with think-tanks divided on which way the rate decision would go. Earlier today, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the nation's cash rate at the record low 0.1 percent for the 12th month in a row, but dumped one of its key stimulus measures, known as "yield curve control", signaling that borrowing costs may have to rise sooner than expected. Euro zone manufacturing activity remained strong last month but was curtailed by supply chain bottlenecks and logistical problems which sent input costs soaring, a survey showed. Ongoing disruptions caused by the coronavirus pandemic, alongside a shortage of heavy goods vehicle drivers, has caused product shortages and left factories struggling to get the raw materials they need. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 14.22% to settled at 11179 while prices down -1568 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 62603 and below same could see a test of 61984 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 64310, a move above could see prices testing 65398.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 61984-65398.

* Silver prices dropped amid rising expectations for earlier US interest rate hikes after the latest inflation data rose faster than expected.

* Markets will watch closely the Fed's language on inflation and the timing of the first interest rate hike since December 2018.

* The headline inflation jumped 4.4% YoY while the Fed-preferred core inflation increased 3.6% YoY in September


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.64% at 6253 ahead of weekly U.S. supply reports expected to show a rise in crude inventories and of Thursday’s OPEC+ meeting. The increase in OPEC's oil output in October fell short of the rise planned under a deal with allies, as involuntary outages in some smaller producers offset higher supplies from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) pumped 27.50 million barrels per day (bpd) in October, the survey found, and a rise of 190,000 bpd from the previous month but below the 254,000 increase permitted under the supply deal. OPEC states and their allies, a grouping known as OPEC+, are relaxing output cuts made in 2020 as demand recovers from the coronavirus pandemic, although some members are not delivering the full boosts promised due to a lack of capacity. The OPEC+ alliance is also wary of pumping too much oil in case of renewed setbacks in the battle against COVID-19. Iraq’s oil exports for October rose to 3.12 million barrels per day (bpd) from 3.081 million bpd in the previous month, the oil ministry said in a statement. Exports from Iraq's southern Basra terminals reached 3.012 million bpd during October, the ministry said. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.94% to settled at 5488 while prices down -40 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6199 and below same could see a test of 6145 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6312, a move above could see prices testing 6371.

Trading Ideas:

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6145-6371.

* Crude oil dropped ahead of weekly U.S. supply reports expected to show a rise in crude inventories and of Thursday’s OPEC+ meeting.

* OPEC output rises 190,000 bpd from September

* Compliance with OPEC+ cut pledges rises to 118%


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 5.26% at 410.1 as short sellers took some profits and as higher global prices keep demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports strong. That price increase came despite rising output and forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand next week than previously expected. Price gains in the United States, however, were restrained compared with overseas markets because the United States has more than enough gas in storage for winter and ample production to meet domestic and export demand. Prices in Europe and Asia were about five times higher than in the United States. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the U.S. Lower 48 states averaged 94.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from 94.1 bcfd in October. That compares with a monthly record of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would hold around 96.4 bcfd this week and next. The forecast for next week was much lower than what Refinitiv projected on Monday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has averaged 11.0 bcfd so far in November, up from 10.5 bcfd in October. That compares with a monthly record of 11.5 bcfd in April. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -24.42% to settled at 4392 while prices up 20.5 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 396.1 and below same could see a test of 382.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 418.8, a move above could see prices testing 427.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 382.2-427.6.

* Natural gas edged up as short sellers took some profits and as higher global prices keep demand for U.S. LNG exports strong.

* That price increase came despite rising output and forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand next week than previously expected.

* U.S. stockpiles were currently about 3% below the five-year average for this time of year.



Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.64% at 741.3 weighed down by a weaker iron ore market and caution ahead of an interest rate meeting in the United States. The most-traded Dalian iron ore futures tumbled 10% to near a one-year low on increasing supplies and sluggish demand, partly from a poor real estate market hurt by a debt crisis at property giant China Evergrande Group. Prices of the metal moved in tight range and thin volume as market participants were waiting for more a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting on interest rates, which could impact economic growth and liquidity in the financial markets. Top copper miner Codelco offered Chinese customers annual copper supply for 2022 at a premium of $105 a tonne, up 19.3% from $88 a tonne this year, extending a trend of higher premiums on strong copper demand and very low inventories. Global copper smelting activity extended its recovery in October while nickel production edged higher despite sharp falls in China due to a power crunch, data from satellite surveillance showed. Copper smelting in China is ramping up after seasonal maintenance in the third quarter. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.02% to settled at 4624 while prices down -4.75 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 736.8 and below same could see a test of 732.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 746.9, a move above could see prices testing 752.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 732.1-752.3.

* Copper prices fell weighed down by a weaker iron ore market and caution ahead of an interest rate meeting in the United States.

* Global copper smelting extends recovery in October

* Codelco offered Chinese customers annual copper supply for 2022 at a premium of $105 a tonne.


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.74% at 283.45 as euro zone manufacturing activity was curtailed by supply chain bottlenecks and logistical problems which sent input costs soaring. Ongoing disruptions caused by the coronavirus pandemic, alongside a shortage of heavy goods vehicle drivers, has caused product shortages and left factories struggling to get the raw materials they need. The decline in coal prices has hedged the previous concerns about the supply side of domestic non-ferrous metals from the power curtailment, and the stimulus has gradually weakened. The recent electricity curtailment in Inner Mongolia has led to mine production, and the reduction in production in some mines is expected to heat up the supply of zinc concentrates. On the macro front, the Reserve Bank of Australia cancelled the yield target, indicating an open mind to early interest rate hike. In China, the experts from Ministry of Commerce research institute said that the routine notice of guaranteeing supply and stabilising prices of the consumer market is amid at ensuring sufficient supply of daily necessities. While the broad market remained tense, and the domestic economy still possess the possibilities of going down. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.63% to settled at 1196 while prices down -2.1 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 281 and below same could see a test of 278.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 285.9, a move above could see prices testing 288.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 278.4-288.2.

* Zinc prices remained under pressure as euro zone manufacturing activity was curtailed by supply chain bottlenecks and logistical problems

* The decline in coal prices has hedged the previous concerns about the supply side of domestic non-ferrous metals from the power curtailment

* The social inventories of zinc ingots totalled 140,700 mt as of November 1, down 2,900 mt from Friday October 29.

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled down by -0.72% at 1511 as the SHFE nickel inventory stopped falling and hovered around 5,000 mt, while LME inventory also rallied. The market turned cautious ahead of the Fed’s interest rate meeting. And the domestic thermal coal and coking coal futures moved down again, pulling down the nickel prices. The production costs of NPI plants still stood high as the electricity and coke prices were still at a high level though the coal prices regulation was quite effective, plus that only a small amount of nickel ore saw price declines. As such, NPI prices remained in premiums over pure nickel, depressing the demand of steel mills. Euro zone manufacturing activity remained strong last month but was curtailed by supply chain bottlenecks and logistical problems which sent input costs soaring, a survey showed. Ongoing disruptions caused by the coronavirus pandemic, alongside a shortage of heavy goods vehicle drivers, has caused product shortages and left factories struggling to get the raw materials they need. IHS Markit’s final manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dipped to an eight-month low of 58.3 in October from September’s 58.6, shy of an initial 58.5 “flash” estimate but still comfortably above the 50-mark separating growth from contraction. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.28% to settled at 1523 while prices down -10.9 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1492.4 and below same could see a test of 1473.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1528.6, a move above could see prices testing 1546.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1473.8-1546.2.

* Nickel dropped as the SHFE nickel inventory stopped falling and hovered around 5,000 mt, while LME inventory also rallied.

* The domestic thermal coal and coking coal futures moved down again, pulling down the nickel prices.

* The market turned cautious ahead of the Fed’s interest rate meeting.


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -1.61% at 216.55 as the production costs of aluminium were unlikely to support aluminium prices amid plunging coal prices. But the aluminium prices still carry the possibility of rally after the coal prices stop falling or the inventory begins to decline. On the macro front, US ISM manufacturing PMI for October fell from 61.1 to 60.8. A falling PMI reading supports UD dollar index, pushing down prices. Concentrated arrivals of backlog cargoes after weather improved caused the social inventory to continue to grow. The recent decline in aluminium prices has incentivised downstream purchases. The easing of power rationing and production restrictions in some areas also allowed demand to recover slightly. China’s factory activity expanded at its fastest pace in four months in October, buoyed by stronger demand, but power shortages and rising costs weighed on production, a business survey showed. The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 50.6 in October -- its highest level since June. China’s economy is slowing after an impressive rebound from the pandemic-driven slump early last year, with its sprawling manufacturing sector hit by COVID-19 outbreaks, higher costs, production bottlenecks, and more recently, power rationing. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.99% to settled at 2741 while prices down -3.55 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 214.7 and below same could see a test of 212.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 219.5, a move above could see prices testing 222.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 212.8-222.4.

* Aluminium dropped as the production costs of aluminium were unlikely to support aluminium prices amid plunging coal prices.

* But the aluminium prices still carry the possibility of rally after the coal prices stop falling or the inventory begins to decline.

* US ISM manufacturing PMI for October fell from 61.1 to 60.8.



Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.29% at 936.5 as demand from consumer side is extremely weak and industrial demand is also not picking up. Prices got support in last few weeks as due to crop failure and low recovery of oil, availability of Mentha oil will be low and demand from industries are expected to improve ahead of winter season. Speculation are also high that production this year will be lower as compare with last year because of two important factors. Major physical market player expects demand to sluggish for next few week as cash crunch seen in spot market, while expectations are high about demand improvement ahead of winter season starts. China is one of the biggest buyer for Indian Mentha, no much buying inquiry from China as mainland China and Hong Kong markets were shut. Speculation are also high that production this year will be lower as compare with last year because of two important factors. Firstly damages due to rain in key area and secondly farmers for the last 2 years where sowing mentha but due to not getting much profit at intervals there had been shift to other crops also. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -23 Rupees to end at 1040.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.17% to settled at 1018 while prices down -2.7 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 932.7 and below same could see a test of 928.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 941.2, a move above could see prices testing 945.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 928.8-945.8.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -23 Rupees to end at 1040.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha oil prices dropped as demand from consumer side is extremely weak

* Prices got support in last few weeks as due to crop failure and low recovery of oil

* Availability of Mentha oil will be low and demand from industries are expected to improve ahead of winter season.



Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled down by -0.27% at 5480 as Soyabean production is estimated to rise by 14 per cent to nearly 119 lakh tonnes this year on higher sowing area and likely improvement in productivity, according to industry body SOPA. In its estimate, Soyabean Processors Association of India (SOPA) said that the total area under soybean for the year 2021 is 119.984 lakh hectares. The government's area estimate is 123.677 lakh hectares. In last year's Kharif (summer sow) season, total soyabean acreage stood at 118.383 lakh hectare. China's soybean imports from Brazil in September fell 18% from a year earlier, customs data showed, as poor crush margins limited demand. The world's top buyer of soybeans brought in 5.936 million tonnes of the oilseed from Brazil last month, versus 7.25 million tonnes in the corresponding year-ago period, data from the General Administration of Customs showed. Private exporters reported the sale of 132,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2021/22 marketing year, the U.S. Agriculture Department said. Separate sales of 222,350 tonnes of soybeans for delivery during unknown time periods also were reported. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 21 Rupees to 5707 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.08% to settled at 61755 while prices down -15 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 5446 and below same could see a test of 5412 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5528, a move above could see prices testing 5576.

Trading Ideas:

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 5412-5576.

* Soyabean dropped as Soyabean production is estimated to rise by 14 per cent to nearly 119 lakh tonnes this year on higher sowing area

* India's edible oil producers' body urges members to cut prices to help consumers

* Private exporters reported the sale of 132,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2021/22 marketing year

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  21 Rupees to 5707 Rupees per 100 kgs.


Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -0.36% at 1260.8 on profit booking after prices seen supported as the vegetable oil market faces a significant squeeze due to lower output. India slashed its base import tax on crude palm oil, crude soyoil and crude sunflower oil to zero from 2.5%, as the world's biggest vegetable oil buyer tries to cool near-record price rises. The Govt. has decided to impose stock limits on edible oils and oilseeds up to March 31, 2022. This decision has been taken to soften the prices of edible oils in the country and provide relief to consumers. The Ministry said that the stock limits will be decided by the respective state governments depending on local conditions. It has however decided to give exemption to importers and exporters subject to conditions. Oilseeds output is also expected to be down a tad at 23.38 mt as soyabean production was affected by the patchy rains in the key producing States of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, respectively. Favorable weather over the weekend boosted U.S. harvest, while exports remain capped by terminals on the U.S. Gulf Coast that continue to struggle with power outages and hurricane-led damage as the country heads into its busiest export season. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1300 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.19% to settled at 40205 while prices down -4.5 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1258 and below same could see a test of 1255 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1266, a move above could see prices testing 1271.

Trading Ideas:

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1255-1271.

* Ref soyoil dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported as the vegetable oil market faces a significant squeeze due to lower output.

* India’s Sept edible oil stocks at ports and pipelines rose 3.24 percent mom: SEA

* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1300 Rupees per 10 kgs.


palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -0.31% at 1124.4 as expectations of higher end stocks for October and rumours of poorer exports weighed on sentiment. However downside seen limited as supply constraints due to the rainy season and strength in rival oils supported the market. Prices are seen rising as the rainy season and coronavirus-linked labour shortage are slowing output in Malaysia. October export data improved amid tight supply worries. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA) estimated Oct. 1-15 production declined 0.2% from the month before in some parts of Malaysia. The Indian Vegetable Oils Producers Association says it is seeing early signs of demand shifting from palm oil to soft oils after India's duty cut made soft oil more attractive. Malaysia's crude palm oil production in 2021 is forecast to decline by 700,000 tonnes to 18.4 million tonnes due to a labour shortage and erratic weather conditions, state agency the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) said. Neighbouring Indonesia has not faced such labour issues and has expanded its planted area by about 200,000 hectares this year, MPOC chief executive Wan Zawawi Wan Ismail said. Production in the world's largest palm oil producer is projected to rise by 2.5 million tonnes to 45.5 million tonnes, he said. In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -6.3 Rupees to end at 1140.2 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.91% to settled at 4668 while prices down -3.5 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1119.8 and below same could see a test of 1115.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1129.4, a move above could see prices testing 1134.4.

Trading Ideas:

* CPO trading range for the day is 1115.2-1134.4.

* Crude palm oil dropped as expectations of higher end stocks for October and rumours of poorer exports weighed on sentiment.

* However downside seen limited as supply constraints due to the rainy season and strength in rival oils supported the market.

* The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association estimated Oct. 1-15 production declined 0.2% from the month before in some parts of Malaysia.

* In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped  by -6.3 Rupees to end at 1140.2 Rupees.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.62% at 7434 following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. However upside seen limited amid prospects of better crop this kharif season along with tepid demand. The areas where turmeric has been sown have received adequate rainfall and are expected to produce well in the next season. Due to favorable weather, production is likely to be higher in 2021-22 (July-June) season. Besides, heavy carryover stocks and slack in bulk demand are keeping prices under pressure. In the first 4 months of FY 2021-22, turmeric exports declined by 26% to 53,000 tonnes as compared to the same period last year, but almost at the same level as the 5-year average. Support is expected on the news that due to June and July floods almost 10% crop washed away so we can see 10-15 % less sowing also farmers had shown interested in other crops as prices where more. Pressure also seen as the lockdown restrictions were eased the key Turmeric growing states, including Maharashtra and Telangana reported noticeable increase in mandi arrivals, which augmented physical market supplies and pressurized prices. In the first 6 months of 2021, turmeric exports declined by 3% to 77,300 tonnes compared to the same period last year, but could be higher in the coming months. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7165.8 Rupees gained 36.65 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.21% to settled at 6250 while prices up 46 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7384 and below same could see a test of 7332 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7492, a move above could see prices testing 7548.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7332-7548.

* Turmeric gains following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh.

* However upside seen limited amid prospects of better crop this kharif season along with tepid demand.

* The areas where turmeric has been sown have received adequate rainfall and are expected to produce well in the next season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7165.8 Rupees gained 36.65 Rupees.
 

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.03% at 15130 as adequate stock with traders and farmers may keeping prices under pressure at higher levels. However downside seen limited as domestic festive demand is now picking up also the export inquiries to support price. Jeera production in Syria and Turkey was limited due to bad weather, which increases demand for Indian cumin. As of now Exports of Jeera for Apr-Aug was down by 12% Y/Y at 1.24 lakh tonnes but expected improve in coming months as Rupee weakness will support exports. During last two months, the prices were higher compared to last year despite sufficient stocks with traders. Sowing can see drop as farmers preferred to have other crop against Jeera. Weather in key sowing area will be crucial in next few months. The export of cumin is increasing continuously and in the coming days there are signs of increasing the export of cumin in a big way. Purchase of cumin seeds from African and Middle East countries will be diverted from other countries to India this year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -13.35 Rupees to end at 14700 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.88% to settled at 4371 while prices down -5 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 15060 and below same could see a test of 14990 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 15240, a move above could see prices testing 15350.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 14990-15350.

* Jeera settled flat as adequate stock with traders and farmers may keeping prices under pressure at higher levels.

* However downside seen limited as the export of cumin is increasing continuously and in the coming days there are signs of increasing the export

* India's cumin exports will increase due to less supply from Afghanistan-Syrian

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -13.35 Rupees to end at 14700 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -1.21% at 33380 on profit booking as India’s cotton production in 2021-22 season is likely to be 360.13 lakh bales of 170 kg each (equivalent to 382.64 lakh running bales of 160 kg each), which is more by 7.13 lakh bales than the previous season’s crop of 353 lakh bales, the Cotton Association of India (CAI) has said in its first estimate for the new season beginning October 1, 2021. As per report, the loose cotton production figures for the 2020-21 crop year were less by 25 per cent at 5.45 lakh bales of 170 kg each, since the said crop year was a pandemic year. The preliminary yearly Balance Sheet projected by the CAI Crop Committee estimates total cotton supply till end of the 2021-22 Season i.e. upto September 30, 2022 at 445.13 lakh bales of 170 kg each, which consists of the opening stock of 75.00 lakh bales at the beginning of the season, crop for the season estimated at 360.13 lakh bales, and imports for the season estimated at the same level as in the last year i.e. at 10 lakh bales. Cotton exports could be lower at 50 lakh bales this season (October 2021-September 2022) compared with 75-80 lakh bales last season. In spot market, Cotton gained by 320 Rupees to end at 32760 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.24% to settled at 3364 while prices down -410 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 33150 and below same could see a test of 32930 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 33720, a move above could see prices testing 34070.

Trading Ideas:

* Cotton trading range for the day is 32930-34070.

* Cotton prices dropped on profit booking as India's cotton output to increase by 7.13 lakh bales this season

* Cotton exports could be lower at 50 lakh bales this season compared with 75-80 lakh bales last season.

* SIMA said cotton production this year is estimated to be 360 lakh bales

* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 320 Rupees to end at 32760 Rupees.
 

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