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Gold
Gold yesterday settled up by 0.3% at 58756 as investors began to shift their focus from the banking crisis to the next Fed's action. Existing home sales in the US which include completed transactions of single-family homes, town homes, condominiums and co-ops jumped 14.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.58 million in February 2023, snapping a 12-month slide and representing the largest monthly percentage increase since July 2020. Markets were expecting a smaller 5 percent rebound. Gold found support recently from a global banking crisis that started with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in the US, then followed by the forced takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS in Europe. Switzerland's exports of gold to China and India rebounded in February as bullion prices fell, Swiss customs data showed. It exported 58 tonnes of gold worth 3.2 billion Swiss francs ($3.5 billion) to mainland China in February, up from 26.1 tonnes in January and the most since December. It sent 25.6 tonnes of gold to India, up from 3.2 tonnes in January and the most since September. Swiss exports of gold to Turkey dipped in February, having risen to unprecedented levels in January amid rampant inflation in the country. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.81% to settle at 7736 while prices are up 177 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 58542 and below same could see a test of 58328 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 58890, a move above could see prices testing 59024.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 58328-59024.
* Gold steadied as focus shifting from the banking crisis to the Fed's action.
* The Fed raised rates by 25bps to 4.75%-5%, as expected, to fight elevated inflation and signaled greater uncertainty about future hikes
* US existing home sales jumped 14.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.58 million in February 2023

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 1.34% at 69309 as the dollar index fell for a fifth consecutive session to 103, its lowest level since early February. However fears of contagion in the banking sector subsided after the rescue of Credit Suisse by UBS. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the government is ready to provide further guarantees of deposits if the banking crisis worsens. Construction output in the Euro Area increased 0.9 percent from a year earlier in January 2023, recovering from a downwardly revised 0.6 percent fall in the previous month. Building construction activity rebounded 1.4 percent from a 0.5 percent decline in December, while civil engineering work decreased 1.9 percent (vs -2 percent). The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for the Euro Area slipped by 19.7 points to 10 in March 2023, from a one-year high of 29.7 in the prior month and below market forecasts of 16. This was the first drop in sentiment after five consecutive months of increases, amid heightened uncertainty about the economic outlook caused by the recent turmoil in the financial system. Existing home sales in the US jumped 14.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.58 million in February 2023, snapping a 12-month slide and representing the largest monthly percentage increase since July 2020. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 4.03% to settle at 13028 while prices are up 915 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 68646 and below same could see a test of 67983 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 69735, a move above could see prices testing 70161.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 67983-70161.
* Silver gained as the dollar index fell, its lowest level since early February.
* However fears of contagion in the banking sector subsided after the rescue of Credit Suisse by UBS.
* Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the government is ready to provide further guarantees of deposits if the banking crisis worsens.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 1.11% at 5839 as the IEA stating that China is expected to drive a 2 million barrel rise in daily global oil demand this year. OPEC+ is likely to stick to its deal on output cuts of 2 million barrels per day (bpd) until the end of the year, even after a banking crisis sent crude prices plunging. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that Moscow will continue with a 500,000 bpd production cut it announced last month, lasting until the end of June. In its most recent monthly report, OPEC upgraded its forecast for Chinese oil demand growth this year but maintained its projection for global demand growth at 2.32 million bpd. US crude oil inventories rose by 1.1170 million barrels in the week ended March 17, 2023, against market expectations of a 1.565 million-barrel-draw, the latest US Energy Information Administration report showed. Also, crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub fell by 1.063 million barrels, less than market expectations for a 1.558 million decrease. On the other hand, gasoline stocks declined by 6.4 million, the most since September 2021 and above expectations of a 1.677 million draw. Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, tumbled by 3.313 million, the most since October 2022. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -13.43% to settle at 8845 while prices are up 64 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5748 and below same could see a test of 5658 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5902, a move above could see prices testing 5966.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5658-5966.
* Crude oil gains as China is expected to drive a 2 mbls rise in daily global demand
* OPEC+ likely to stick to its guns despite price slump
* US crude oil inventories rose by 1.1170 million barrels

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -2.3% at 182.9 dragged by lower heating demand and less cold weather while gas output is rising. Average US gas demand, including exports, is expected to fall to 108.3 bcfd next week from 116.2 bcfd this week due to milder weather. On the other hand, average gas output in the US Lower 48 states grew to 98.7 bcfd this month, up from 98.2 bcfd in the previous period, and approaching a record of 99.9 bcfd in November 2022. Meanwhile, gas flows to LNG export plants have been on track to hit record highs after Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas became operational again. Natural gas prices have declined 45% since the beginning of the year and are now almost 80% down from their August peak of $10, as warmer temperatures kept heating demand subdued this winter and stockpiles well above average levels. Strong peaks in the winter and summer drove U.S. natural gas consumption to an all-time high last year, averaging 88.5 Bcf/d, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The federal agency said natural gas consumption peaked last year in January and July. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.4% to settle at 28353 while prices are down -4.3 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 179 and below same could see a test of 175 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 189.4, a move above could see prices testing 195.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 175-195.8.
* Natural gas dropped as output rises, demand declines
* Average US gas demand, is expected to fall to 108.3 bcfd next week from 116.2 bcfd this week due to milder weather.
* Average gas output in the US Lower 48 states grew to 98.7 bcfd this month, up from 98.2 bcfd in the previous period

Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 1.02% at 771.75 amid tight supply, and hopes of strong demand. Meanwhile, investors continued to assess the risks instability in the global financial sector may pose to the real economy. Mining exports from major producer Peru sank nearly 20% annually in January due to the widespread protests that halted the activity, while inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to record lower levels. At the same time, demand expectations for top consumer China were underpinned by the People Bank of China's surprise cut in the reserve requirement ratio, the country's latest measure to spur higher economic activity and rebound from Covid lockdowns. China's unwrought copper imports in the first two months of 2023 fell 9.3% from a year earlier, customs data showed, as higher global prices curbed buying appetite. Arrivals of unwrought copper and products into China, the world's biggest consumer of the red metal, were 879,000 tonnes in January and February, down from 969,289 tonnes in the same period a year earlier, according to the General Administration of Customs. A surge in COVID-19 cases across the country after Beijing abruptly exited its zero-COVID policy in early December disrupted industrial activity, dampening copper demand. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.43% to settle at 2109 while prices are up 7.8 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 763.5 and below same could see a test of 755.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 776.8, a move above could see prices testing 781.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 755.1-781.7.
* Copper gains amid tight supply, and hopes of strong demand.
* China's unwrought copper imports in the first two months of 2023 fell 9.3% from a year earlier
* Meanwhile, investors continued to assess the risks instability in the global financial sector may pose to the real economy.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.08% at 254.45 as Chinese spot treatment charges for zinc concentrate slipped from their highest in more than two years in March and will likely fall further on high smelter utilisation rates and a demand recovery in its biggest consuming market. SHFE inventories of refined zinc surged 582% from December 2022 to 123,894 tonnes by March 10, exchange data showed, correlating with the ramp-up at smelters. But as demand for refined metal picked up, SHFE stocks fell 8.4% last week, their biggest weekly decline since Dec. 23. China's concentrate market was over-supplied partly due to smelters shutting down in Europe. The country imported 4.12 million tonnes of zinc concentrate last year, up 13% year-on-year. In the first two months of 2023, imports surged 30% year-on-year to 902,000 tonnes. The global zinc market deficit fell to 18,300 tonnes in January from a revised deficit of 80,300 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 100,500 tonnes in December. The deficit of 18,300 tonnes in January compares with a surplus of 15,000 tonnes in the same month last year, ILZSG data showed. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -11.56% to settle at 2218 while prices are up 0.2 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 252.9 and below same could see a test of 251.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 255.7, a move above could see prices testing 257.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 251.4-257.
* Zinc settled flat as China's zinc treatment charges fall from multi – year high
* SHFE inventories of refined zinc surged 582% from December 2022 to 123,894 tonnes by March 10
* Global zinc market deficit slides to 18,300 T in January – ILZSG

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.2% at 202.75 as fears over a banking turmoil abated, while the market awaited a decision on interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Global primary aluminium output rose 2.7% year on year in February to 5.273 million tonnes. China exported 242,276 tonnes of alumina to Russia in the first two months of 2023, surging from the 698 tonnes shipped there a year ago. China's aluminium imports in the first two months of 2023 rose 11.3% from a year earlier, official data showed, as buyers anticipated improving demand for the metal following the country's reopening. Arrivals of unwrought aluminium and products including primary metal and unwrought, alloyed aluminium totalled 374,321 tonnes in January and February combined, according to the General Administration of Customs. That compares with 336,007 tonnes in the corresponding period last year. China dropped its strict COVID-19 restrictions late last year, buoying hopes of an economic recovery and better demand for industrial metals. China kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged for the seventh straight month in March, as expected, after the central bank surprised markets last week by moving to lower the amount of cash banks must set aside as reserves. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -12.17% to settle at 2633 while prices are up 0.4 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 202 and below same could see a test of 201.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 203.5, a move above could see prices testing 204.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 201.1-204.1.
* Aluminum gains as fears over a banking turmoil abated
* China exported 242,276 tonnes of alumina to Russia in the first two months of 2023
* China Jan – Feb aluminium imports rose 11.3% on year

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.34% at 985.9 as demand was poor due to recession fears and global banking turmoil. The collapse of California’s Silicon Valley Bank and troubles at Swiss lender Credit Suisse have shaken the financial markets and dampened the outlook for oil consumption. Market participants expect prices to remain under pressure until demand recovers and market sentiment improves. Mentha exports during Apr-Jan 2023, dropped by 13.65 percent to 2,016.77 tonnes as compared to 2,335.63 tonnes exported during Apr-Jan 2022. In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 298.38 tonnes in December 2022 showing a drop of 21.84%. In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 171.07 tonnes in January 2022 showing a rise of 36.32%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.3 Rupees to end at 1170.6 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -9.85% to settle at 412 while prices are down -3.4 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 982.3 and below same could see a test of 978.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 991.2, a move above could see prices testing 996.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 978.7-996.5.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -1.3 Rupees to end at 1170.6 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil dropped as demand was poor due to recession fears and global banking turmoil.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Jan 2023, dropped by 13.65 percent to 2,016.77 tonnes
# In January 2023 around 233.21 tonnes was exported against 298.38 tonnes in December 2022 showing a drop of 21.84%.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.67% at 6928 on good domestic and export demand. Turmeric harvesting has started in the key growing regions and farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices. In AP (Nizamabad) Turmeric market around 5,000-7,000 bags are arriving on an average daily basis. In the Erode spot market 400-600 bags are reported on a daily basis, In the Sangli district it is around 3500-7000 bags. Coupled with weak demand in the export and domestic market prices are trading at lower levels (in the current season). Turmeric exports during Apr-Jan 2023, rose by 7.76 percent at 1,36,492.59 tonnes as compared to 1,26,659.01 tonnes exported during Apr-Jan 2022. In January 2023 around 12,484.25 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,039.57 tonnes in December 2022 showing a rise of 3.69%. In January 2023 around 12,484.25 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 10,558.26 tonnes in January 2022 showing a rise of 18.24%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6810.3 Rupees gained 23.75 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.68% to settle at 11755 while prices are up 46 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 6828 and below same could see a test of 6726 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7040, a move above could see prices testing 7150.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6726-7150.
* Turmeric gains on good domestic and export demand.
* Farmers and stockists are releasing their stocks, in the fear of further decline in prices
* The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6810.3 Rupees gained 23.75 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 3.46% at 34965 as unfavorable weather conditions affecting supply from main producing areas. This year, there is a stock deficit, lesser output, and increased export demand for jeera. Cumin harvests in Gujarat are now higher than last year, but recent rains are projected to lower yields by at least 20%. Gujarat produced 2.15 lakh metric tonnes (MT) of cumin in 2023. Currently, over 30% of Gujarat's crop remains unharvested in the districts of Kutch and Banaskantha. Due to unseasonal rain in certain regions, a portion of this crop is likely to be damaged or of low quality. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. One bag holds 55kg. This will result in a demand-supply imbalance. Currently, at least 70% of the crop in Rajasthan and around 30% in Gujarat have yet to be harvested. Because of the rain in both states, the total yield will be reduced. The cumin crop was destroyed by two bouts of unseasonal rainfall during the harvest season. In comparison to the planned arrival of 70 lakh bags, the stock will be reduced to 60-65 lakh bags, with a carry-forward stock of 5 lakh bags from last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 1138.5 Rupees to end at 33971.5 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.16% to settle at 5763 while prices are up 1170 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 33960 and below same could see a test of 32950 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 35545, a move above could see prices testing 36120.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 32950-36120.
* Jeera prices rose as unfavorable weather conditions affecting supply
* Support also seen amid a stock deficit, lesser output, and increased export demand for jeera
* Cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 1138.5 Rupees to end at 33971.5 Rupees per 100 kg.

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