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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.12% at 47237 as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's highly anticipated speech to the Jackson Hole economic conference will likely offer few new hints about when the U.S. central bank may start reducing its massive asset purchases. But Powell could tackle the sensitive task of explaining why tapering the $120 billion in monthly purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities doesn't mean an imminent interest rate hike, advancing an effort by Fed policymakers to keep traders from pushing up borrowing costs more than the central bank may feel is warranted or healthy for an economy with millions still unemployed. New orders for key U.S.-made capital goods were unexpectedly flat in July amid supply constraints and a shift in demand to services, suggesting that business spending on equipment could slow in the second half after robust growth over the past year. Still, business investment in equipment remains strong, with the report from the Commerce Department showing shipments of these capital goods accelerating last month. Orders are 18% above their pre-pandemic levels. China's net gold imports via Hong Kong fell 28.6% in July from the previous month, Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data showed. Net imports stood at 22.056 tonnes in July compared with 30.887 tonnes in June, the data showed. Total gold imports via Hong Kong fell to 26.406 tonnes from 37.226 tonnes. China is the world's top gold consumer. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.72% to settled at 11391 while prices up 58 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 46988 and below same could see a test of 46738 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 47434, a move above could see prices testing 47630.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 46738-47630.
* Gold steadied as Fed’s Chair Powell's highly anticipated speech will likely offer few new hints about when the Fed may start reducing its massive asset purchases.
* New orders for key U.S.-made capital goods were unexpectedly flat in July amid supply constraints and a shift in demand to services
* China's net gold imports via Hong Kong fall 28.6% in July

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.87% at 62723 after a regional Federal Reserve president suggested a faster pace of reducing the U.S. central bank's asset purchases, comments that pushed the greenback toward a key resistance level. Bullard said in comments that he was skeptical that inflation would moderate and for that reason the Fed needed to start tapering its bond-purchasing program. Bullard's comments came as the Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming opened, with the highlight expected to be Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Friday. Powell is unlikely to offer few new hints about when the Fed may start to reduce its massive asset purchases. Markets are assessing how the Fed will react to signs inflation could be less transitory than it had flagged and whether it will stick to its new policy framework of letting inflation run hot. The U.S. economy grew a bit faster than initially thought in the second quarter, lifting the level of gross domestic product above its pre-pandemic peak, as massive fiscal stimulus and the impact of COVID-19 vaccinations boosted spending. The report from the Commerce Department also showed a hefty increase in corporate profits, which should allow businesses to continue buying equipment and hiring workers, and keep the economy on a solid growth path in the third quarter even as soaring coronavirus cases cool consumer spending. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.67% to settled at 5319 while prices down -549 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 62317 and below same could see a test of 61911 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 63209, a move above could see prices testing 63695.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 61911-63695.
* Silver dropped after a regional Federal Reserve president suggested a faster pace of reducing the U.S. central bank's asset purchases
* Bullard said in comments that he was skeptical that inflation would moderate and for that reason the Fed needed to start tapering its bond-purchasing program.
* The U.S. economy grew a bit faster than initially thought in the second quarter, lifting the level of gross domestic product above its pre-pandemic peak

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.26% at 5044 as renewed concerns about demand amid rising COVID-19 infections, and as Mexico restored some oil production. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that American crude inventories fell last week for a third consecutive week and overall fuel demand increased to the most since March 2020. The return of output in Mexico, where a fire on Sunday on an offshore platform killed at least five workers and knocked out a bit more than 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of production, is also weighing on prices. More broadly, fresh COVID-19 outbreaks fuelled by the Delta variant of the coronavirus are raising concerns about the strength of the economic recovery globally. Next week, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will meet on Sept. 1 to decide its policy amid calls from the United States to add more barrels to the market to help the global economic recovery. U.S. total product supplied rose last week to the highest since March 2020, Energy Information Administration data showed. Product supplied, a proxy for fuel demand, rose to 21.8 million barrels per day, the data showed. Meanwhile, crude inventories fell to about 432.6 million barrels, their lowest since January 2020. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.23% to settled at 4910 while prices down -13 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4994 and below same could see a test of 4945 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5082, a move above could see prices testing 5121.

Trading Ideas:

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4945-5121.
* Crude oil dropped as renewed concerns about demand amid rising COVID-19 infections, and as Mexico restored some oil production.
* EIA reported that American crude inventories fell last week for a third consecutive week and overall fuel demand increased to the most since March 2020.
* Next week, the OPEC will meet on Sept. 1 to decide its policy amid calls from the United States

Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 7.17% at 312.5 on a much smaller than expected storage build during last week's hot weather. Traders also noted prices were rising on forecasts for higher liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and the latest outlook calling for the weather to remain hotter than normal through early September. So long as the weather remains hot, power generators will burn more gas to keep air conditioners humming. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added just 29 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Aug. 20. Last week's injection boosted stockpiles to 2.851 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 6.2% below the five-year average of 3.040 tcf for this time of year. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to an average of 92.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in August from 91.6 bcfd in July. That compares with an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 94.2 bcfd this week to 94.5 bcfd next week mostly as LNG exports rise. Those forecasts were higher than Refinitiv projected on Wednesday. U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico slipped to an average of 6.2 bcfd so far in August from 6.6 bcfd in July and a record 6.7 bcfd in June. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 132.41% to settled at 23320 while prices up 20.9 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 298.2 and below same could see a test of 283.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 320.9, a move above could see prices testing 329.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 283.9-329.3.
* Natural gas soared on a much smaller than expected storage build during last week's hot weather.
* The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added just 29 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage
* Last week, gas speculators boosted their short positions in natural gas futures and options on NYMEX to the highest since June 2020.

Copper 

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.34% at 714.1 as China's central bank drops hints that further monetary policy easing is coming, which ought to restore confidence in the economy, thereby its currency. For a second consecutive day, the People's Bank of China more than replaced maturing short-term loans via its daily cash injections. The recent liquidity measures were described as necessary to soothe month-end credit tightness. The central bank's commitment to keep the economy from stalling because of the pandemic's resurgence strongly suggests another cut in banks' reserve ratio requirement (RRR) is coming. The workers' union at BHP's Cerro Colorado copper mine in Chile has called on its members to reject a final contract offer by the company, paving the way for a strike at the small deposit, the group's leadership told Reuters. The labor tensions come shortly after a court ordered the mine to cease pumping from a reservoir that supplies it with fresh water, citing environmental concerns and slowing progress on a key mine maintenance project. On-warrant copper inventories in LME-registered warehouses fell to 169,800 tonnes from almost 240,000 tonnes a week ago, suggesting tighter supply. Chile's sprawling mining sector believes a royalty bill under discussion could, as currently written, shut down the country's private miners Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.07% to settled at 4136 while prices down -2.45 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 711.3 and below same could see a test of 708.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 716.5, a move above could see prices testing 719.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 708.6-719.
* Copper dropped as China's central bank drops hints that further monetary policy easing is coming, which ought to restore confidence in the economy
* Union at BHP's Cerro Colorado calls on workers to reject contract offer
* On-warrant copper inventories in LME-registered warehouses fell to 169,800 tonnes from almost 240,000 tonnes a week ago, suggesting tighter supply.
 

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.02% at 246.7 as global stock markets wobbled ahead of a highly anticipated speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday. Investors are cautious ahead of Powell's speech to the Jackson Hole economic conference, with global shares tapping the brakes and oil prices falling. The mood among German consumers darkened heading into September while lending to euro zone companies continued to slow last month. The global zinc market was undersupplied by 20,200 tonnes in June following a revised deficit of 23,500 tonnes in May, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 17,900 tonnes in May. During the first six months of 2021, the ILZSG data showed the market saw a surplus of 36,000 tonnes, down from a surplus of 385,000 tonnes in the same period of 2020. Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium , a unit of state-run Chinese metals group Chinalco, said one of its zinc subsidiaries had suspended production after three workers were killed in a gas leak. Four employees of the subsidiary, Hulun Buir Chihong in Inner Mongolia, inhaled a toxic gas preliminary findings indicate was carbon monoxide during an inspection of equipment. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.04% to settled at 1188 while prices down -0.05 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 245 and below same could see a test of 243.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 248, a move above could see prices testing 249.2.

Trading Ideas:

*  Zinc trading range for the day is 243.2-249.2.
* Zinc settled flat as global stock markets wobbled ahead of a highly anticipated speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday.
* The mood among German consumers darkened heading into September while lending to euro zone companies continued to slow last month.
* The global zinc market was undersupplied by 20,200 tonnes in June following a revised deficit of 23,500 tonnes in May

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled down by -2.03% at 1410.7 in response to concerns that government efforts to cool the property market could ripple through the economy. On the macro front, the growth rate of US new orders of durable goods in July fell slightly, altering the market coupled with the slowing economic data in both US and euro zone. On the other hand, as the market awaited the Fed’s attitude at the annual economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole to be held this Thursday, both long and short capitals stayed cautious and held wait-and-see stance. The global nickel market deficit narrowed to 20,100 tonnes in June compared a shortfall of 23,600 tonnes in May, data from the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) showed. During the first six months of the year, the nickel market saw a deficit of 86,700 tonnes compared with a surplus of 74,200 tonnes in the same period last year, the Lisbon-based INSG added. Jilin Jien Nickel, a nickel producer in northeast China, has halted output of nickel cathodes because they are no longer profitable. China, the world's biggest metals consumer, has very few companies still making nickel cathodes as smelters instead choose to produce nickel sulphate, a chemical used in the burgeoning electric vehicle battery sector. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 29.47% to settled at 1586 while prices down -29.2 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1398.9 and below same could see a test of 1387 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1430.4, a move above could see prices testing 1450.

Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1387-1450.
* Nickel prices dropped in response to concerns that government efforts to cool the property market could ripple through the economy.
* The growth rate of US new orders of durable goods in July fell slightly
* The global nickel market deficit narrowed to 20,100 tonnes in June compared a shortfall of 23,600 tonnes in May

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.29% at 209 due to output cut at aluminium plants in Yunnan, Guangdong and Inner Mongolia on power curtailment and dual control of energy consumption. The U.S. economy grew a bit faster than initially thought in the second quarter, lifting the level of gross domestic product above its pre-pandemic peak, as massive fiscal stimulus and the impact of COVID-19 vaccinations boosted spending. The report from the Commerce Department also showed a hefty increase in corporate profits, which should allow businesses to continue buying equipment and hiring workers, and keep the economy on a solid growth path in the third quarter even as soaring coronavirus cases cool consumer spending. Data showed that domestic aluminium social inventories stood at 753000 mt, up 12000 mt on the week, most of which was contributed by Gongyi. Arrivals of imported aluminium ingots thinned while the immediate loss of imports shrank slightly. Data showed that China’s social inventories of aluminium billet across five major consumption areas fell 6,200 mt on the week to 124,400 mt as of August 26, mainly due to the decline in Foshan, Wuxi and Nanchang. Downstream producers properly restocked cargoes due to high aluminium prices and bearish orders, thus, the demand for aluminium billet declined. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.88% to settled at 1805 while prices up 0.6 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 207.5 and below same could see a test of 206 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 210, a move above could see prices testing 211.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 206-211.
* Aluminium gained due to output cut at aluminium plants in Yunnan, Guangdong and Inner Mongolia on power curtailment and dual control of energy consumption.
* Data showed that domestic aluminium social inventories stood at 753000 mt, up 12000 mt on the week, most of which was contributed by Gongyi.
* Data showed that China’s social inventories of aluminium billet across five major consumption areas fell 6,200 mt
 

Mentha oil 

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.79% at 936 on low level buying after prices dropped as average yield in Barabanki is improved by 5-6 kgs per acre due to better weather. Pressure seen arrivals likely to increase due to favourable weather conditions. Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days. Last week, prices rallied. The Lucknow-based Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants estimates that this adverse effect of rains on the crop is expected to reduce production by 30% in the last two weeks. The crop is prone to rain because the leaves of the crop start falling due to waterlogging in the field. Most of the farmers have planted Mentha crops and this rain is not less than acid for 50 percent of Mentha crop. Last month, support seen due to the rotting of the crop due to stagnant water in the field. The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting. Due to drowning in the water, the rows have started to wither. With the harvesting of the crop, oil extraction work has also started. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 6.3 Rupees to end at 1029.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.99% to settled at 1219 while prices up 7.3 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 930.8 and below same could see a test of 925.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 939.7, a move above could see prices testing 943.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 925.5-943.3.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 6.3 Rupees to end at 1029.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil gained on low level buying after prices dropped as average yield in Barabanki improved
* Pressure seen arrivals likely to increase due to favourable weather conditions.
* The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting.
 

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled down by -5.98% at 7701 as India has relaxed import rules to allow shipments of 1.2 million tonnes of genetically modified (GMD) soymeal, the government said, a move that could help the poultry industry after animal feed prices tripled in a year. In Marathwada, there were concerns about mosaic virus, as well as infestation of pink and American bollworm. Soybean growers from Amravati, Latur and Osmanabad districts have reported the attack of mosaic virus. Meanwhile, soybean has now overtaken cotton to become the number one crop in the state and has been sown on 44.73 lakh hectares. Last year, soybean was sown on some 42 lakh hectares. However upside seen limited amid weakness in overseas prices as forecasts of rains in parts of the U.S. Midwest boosted hopes for better yields. China's soybean imports from top supplier Brazil fell in July from the previous year, customs data showed, as poor crush margins weighed on demand. China, the world's top buyer of soybeans, brought in 7.88 million tonnes of the oilseed from Brazil in July, down 3.7% from 8.18 million tonnes a year earlier, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. For July, China's soybean shipments from all origins totalled 8.67 million tonnes, down 14.1% from the previous year. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped -11 Rupees to 9090 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.36% to settled at 18880 while prices down -490 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 7492 and below same could see a test of 7284 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8116, a move above could see prices testing 8532.

Trading Ideas:

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 7284-8532.
* Soyabean prices dropped as India allows imports of 1.2 mln T of genetically modified soymeal
* In Marathwada, there were concerns about mosaic virus, as well as infestation of pink and American bollworm.
* Soybean growers from Amravati, Latur and Osmanabad districts have reported the attack of mosaic virus.
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped  -11 Rupees to 9090 Rupees per 100 kgs.
 

Soyaoil 

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -0.88% at 1407.6 amid profit booking tracking weakness in soyabean prices and other oilseed counters after prices seen supported by lingering concerns over tight supply. The Government has reduced the import duty of Soyadegum oil to 7.50 percent from 15 percent earlier. Edible oil prices are likely to remain elevated till the arrival of new crop in the October-November period, industry officials said. The rates are unlikely to come down anytime soon as India meets more than half of domestic demand through imports, BV Mehta, executive director, Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA) said. The soybean oil price has surged due to efforts of making renewable bio-diesel fuel from it in the US, Brazil and other countries. Total oilseeds production in the country during 2020-21 is estimated at record 36.10 million tonnes which is higher by 2.88 million tonnes than the production during 2019-20. Further, the production of oilseeds during 2020-21 is higher by 5.56 million tonnes than the average oilseeds production of 30.55 million tonnes. India's imports of sunflower oil could rise to a record in 2021/22 as potential bumper crops in Russia and Ukraine pull prices below rival soyoil, making it lucrative for price-sensitive buyers from the subcontinent, industry officials said. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1425.95 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.08% to settled at 28750 while prices down -12.5 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1398 and below same could see a test of 1389 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1422, a move above could see prices testing 1437.

Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1389-1437.
* Ref soyoil dropped amid profit booking tracking weakness in soyabean prices and other oilseed counters
* The Government has reduced the import duty of Soyadegum oil to 7.50 percent from 15 percent earlier.
* Edible oil prices are likely to remain elevated till the arrival of new crop in the October-November period, industry officials said.
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1425.95 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil 

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -0.75% at 1142.5 on slow export shipments and industry estimates of an increase in August output. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Aug. 1-25 fell 13.1 percent to 999,668 tonnes from 1,150,452 tonnes shipped during Jul. 1-25, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said. Indonesia's plans to raise the mandatory bio-content in its palm oil-based biodiesel to 40% may face further delays, after the high price of the vegetable oil has made the programme too costly, a senior government official told. Indonesia, the world's largest palm oil producer and exporter, has a mandatory biodiesel programme with 30% palm oil content, known as B30, but intends to expand the use of the oil for energy to save on fuel imports. Investors are looking forward to industry data on the extent of August's decline in exports and rise in production to determine the end-month stockpile. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported a weekly decline in crop conditions as severely hot weather was forecast for the heart of the Midwest crop belt, though beneficial rainfall eased some concerns. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 6.2 Rupees to end at 1204 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.29% to settled at 4042 while prices down -8.6 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1137.8 and below same could see a test of 1133 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1149.7, a move above could see prices testing 1156.8.

Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 1133-1156.8.
* Crude palm oil ended with losses on slow export shipments and industry estimates of an increase in August output.
* Indonesia's B40 biodiesel plan faces new delay due to palm price
* Malaysian palm oil products for Aug. 1-25 fell 13.1 percent to 999,668 tonnes from 1,150,452 tonnes shipped during Jul. 1-25
* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 6.2 Rupees to end at 1204 Rupees.

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled down by -1.2% at 8059 as pared gains on profit booking and weakness in overseas prices after reports that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will recommend lowering the nation's biofuel blending mandates. In recent session, prices seen supported as USDA estimates Canada rapeseed production for marketing year 2021/22 at 16.0 million metric tons (mmt), down 4.2 mmt (21 percent) from last month, 3.0 mmt (16 percent) from last year, and 20 percent below the 5-year average. Harvested area is estimated at 8.7 million hectares, down 3 percent from last month, but 4 percent above last year, and roughly equivalent to the 5-year average. The month-to-month decrease in area is due to the expectation of weather-related abandonment with prospects for hay being the best use. Yield is estimated at 1.84 metric tons per hectare, down 18 percent from last month and 20 percent below the 5-year average. A European Union Oilseeds and Protein Crops market situation report estimates that the EU will import 6 million metric tons of canola/rapeseed from third countries in 2021-22, 200,000 mt higher than the previous crop year. However, mustard arrivals in its major producing states i.e. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat improved. Production in Canada in 2021 expected to drop by 1.7 million tons to 16.9 million tons. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -48.75 Rupees to end at 8048.75 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.1% to settled at 25720 while prices down -98 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 7996 and below same could see a test of 7933 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8166, a move above could see prices testing 8273.

Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 7933-8273.
* Mustard seed dropped amid weakness in overseas prices after reports that the U.S. EPA will recommend lowering biofuel blending mandates.
* In recent session, prices seen supported as USDA estimates Canada rapeseed production down as drought in the Prairies intensifies.
* EU weekly rapeseed imports jumped by 70% to 127k mt, total at 414k mt
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -48.75 Rupees to end at 8048.75 Rupees per 100 kg.

 

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -5.16% at 8238 on profit booking as India is on course to having a normal monsoon, which will recharge the country’s main water reservoirs just enough, and ensure that the most important crops for the kharif season have normal sowing. This is good news for agricultural production and food prices. Pressure also seen as the lockdown restrictions were eased the key Turmeric growing states, including Maharashtra and Telangana reported noticeable increase in mandi arrivals, which augmented physical market supplies and pressurized prices. However downside seen limited as support seen on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. Turmeric crops were severely damaged in Parbhani and Hingole due to heavy rains. Mandi arrivals of Turmeric, at all-India level, more than doubled in June 2021 compared to the previous month supported by substantial increase in arrivals in Maharashtra and Telangana. Mandi arrivals had remained sluggish in April and May due to closure of mandis in many regions on account of festival season and Covid related lockdown restrictions. According to the statistics of the Department of Commerce, Government of India, the highest number of 1.84 lakh tonnes of turmeric was exported during the last financial year 2020-21. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7661.9 Rupees dropped -10.6 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.96% to settled at 12040 while prices down -448 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8044 and below same could see a test of 7848 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8562, a move above could see prices testing 8884.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7848-8884.
* Turmeric prices dropped on profit booking as India is on course to having a normal monsoon.
* Pressure also seen as the lockdown restrictions were eased the key Turmeric growing states reported noticeable increase in mandi arrivals
* However downside seen limited as support seen on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7661.9 Rupees dropped -10.6 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -3.09% at 15060 on profit booking after prices rose amid fears of a deficient monsoon and as a geo-political crisis in the Afghanistan could turn the heat as supply of spices has been halted suddenly. With lower customs duty on products from Afghanistan and long-term supply arrangements in place, traders have refrained from reaching out to alternate destinations, but fear domestic prices might soar. Gujarat, has reported 59 per cent deficient rainfall till August 24. The key growing region of North Gujarat has 62 per cent rainfall deficiency. Similarly, major jeera growing districts, including Jaisalmer and Barmer, face a rainfall deficit, triggering drought-like situation in western Rajasthan. According to the first advance estimates, cumin seed production was pegged at 8.56 lakh tonnes during 2020-21, lower than the previous year’s 9.12 lakh tonnes. The area had declined marginally during 2020-21 to 12.41 lakh hectares (lh) compared with the previous year’s 12.76 lh. Gujarat is the largest producer of cumin, where production stood at 4.29 lakh tonnes during 2020-21, while in Rajasthan, the output of the spices seed crop was estimated at 4.25 lakh tonnes. There is also uncertainty of the lockdown over a possible third wave of Covid and low demand from the hotel industry. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -171.8 Rupees to end at 14917.65 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.15% to settled at 5691 while prices down -480 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 14860 and below same could see a test of 14660 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 15355, a move above could see prices testing 15650.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 14660-15650.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices rose amid fears of a deficient monsoon and as a geo-political crisis in Afghanistan halted spices supply
* Cumin seed production was pegged at 8.56 lakh tonnes during 2020-21, lower than the previous year’s 9.12 lakh tonnes.
* The area had declined marginally during 2020-21 to 12.41 lakh hectares (lh) compared with the previous year’s 12.76 lh.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -171.8 Rupees to end at 14917.65 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.08% at 26130 as cotton production will still be high because of good rains and may touch 350-360 lakh bales despite the area under coverage has gone down by 6-8%, from 133 lakh hectares last year to 125 lakh hectares in the current season. In the domestic market prices are capped as higher supplies in the Gujarat & Maharashtra spot markets due to easing lockdown. Weather may impact soyabean, cotton, sugarcane and paddy crops. High-value and sensitive crops such as soyabean, cotton, sugarcane, and paddy have been affected, he said. In Madhya Pradesh, soyabean crop could be 20 percent in some areas. Cotton sowing is progressing across India for the coming 2021-22 season. Cotton sowing across India has reached 116.17 lakh hectares compared to previous season sowing at 116.38 lakh hectares during the same time. Global Cotton stock for the 2021-22, has been revised lower by 50,000 bales. In the other estimates for 2021-22, as largely offsetting changes in production and consumption do little to offset lower estimated beginning stocks. Exports are 200,000 bales lower than in July, and ending stocks are 300,000 bales lower, equating to 17% of expected use, the same as in 2020/21. Lower production is reducing this month's 2021-22 global ending stocks forecast slightly. In spot market, Cotton gained by 10 Rupees to end at 26960 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.86% to settled at 1371 while prices down -20 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 26060 and below same could see a test of 26000 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 26220, a move above could see prices testing 26320.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 26000-26320.
* Cotton dropped as cotton production will still be high because of good rains and may touch 350-360 lakh bales
* Cotton sowing across India has reached 116.17 lakh hectares compared to previous season sowing at 116.38 lakh hectares during the same time.
* Exports are 200,000 bales lower than in July, and ending stocks are 300,000 bales lower, equating to 17% of expected use, the same as in 2020/21.
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 10 Rupees to end at 26960 Rupees.

Chana

Chana yesterday settled down by -0.22% at 5370 as demand is likely to recover in the second half of 2021, as festivals and weddings are likely to boost retail purchases in the fourth quarter. Also from 15th August many states in India are facing long-awaited relaxations from Independence Day on Sunday. Malls can now reopen, while restaurants, gyms, salons and spas are permitted to function at 50% capacity till 10pm, helping ease livelihoods. Meanwhile support also seen after the release of all India pulses sowing data on Friday, revealed that all India, about 126.98 lakh ha area coverage has been reported compared to corresponding week’s 127.40 lakh ha. Thus 0.42 lakh ha less i.e 0.33% area has been covered compared to last year. Last week PM Narendra Modi released the ninth installment of financial benefit under Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi (PM-KISAN), enabling the transfer of more than Rs 19,500 crore to more than 9.75 crore beneficiaries which will raise the sentiments among the Farmers. In Delhi spot market, chana gained by 24.25 Rupees to end at 5424.25 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.75% to settled at 69280 while prices down -12 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5340 and below same could see a test of 5310 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5405, a move above could see prices testing 5440.

Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 5310-5440.
* Chana gained as demand is likely to recover in the second half of 2021, as festivals and weddings are likely to boost retail purchases
* The production of pulses has been increasing during the last three years and the target for 2021-2022 has been set at 23 LMT
* India is likely to receive an average amount of rainfall in August and September, the state-run weather office said
* In Delhi spot market, chana gained  by 24.25 Rupees to end at 5424.25 Rupees per 100 kgs.

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