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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.43% at 52334 as softer-than-expected US inflation data raised hopes for peak inflation and a slower pace of interest rates hikes from the Federal Reserve. For most of this year, Federal Reserve policymakers salted their speeches with new-to-central-banking words like "expeditious" and "front-loading" to underscore their rush to raise interest rates in the face of 40-year-high inflation. It's one clear signal the U.S. central bank is poised to slow what's been the fastest round of rate hikes in 40 years to take stock of the impact of higher borrowing costs. Fresh data showed inflation slowed more than expected last month, and suggests the Fed's rate hikes so far, which have lifted the Fed's benchmark rate up from near zero in March to a 3.75%-4% range as of last week, may be beginning to bite. A spike in domestic prices put off most physical gold consumers in India and prompted dealers to offer discounts for the first time in about a month, with higher rates playing spoilsport in China as well. Dealers offered discounts of $4 an ounce over official domestic prices versus last week's $3 premiums. In top consumer China, premiums eased to $12-$30 an ounce over benchmark spot prices, from last week's $25-$35. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -7.05% to settle at 7459 while prices are up 225 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 52078 and below same could see a test of 51822 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 52562, a move above could see prices testing 52790.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 51822-52790.
* Gold gained as softer-than-expected US inflation data raised hopes for peak inflation and a slower pace of interest rates hikes from the Federal Reserve.
* The annual inflation rate in the US eased for a fourth straight month to 7.7% in October, rising at the slowest pace since January
* Fed officials embrace 'gradual' rate hikes, still aim high
 

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.55% at 61571 on profit booking after prices rose as a sharper-than-expected drop in US inflation reignited bets that the Federal Reserve would slow the pace of its interest-rate. Consumer prices rose by 7.7% annually in October, slowing for the fourth month from the peak hit in June. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 50bps in its December meeting before reaching a terminal funds rate of 5% in March, well below bets of 5.5% from before the CPI print. German consumer price inflation accelerated to 10.4 percent in October from 10.0 percent in September, final data from Destatis showed. The rate came in line with the flash estimate. U.K. GDP shrank 0.2 percent sequentially, offsetting the 0.2 percent gain in the second quarter - according to the first estimate from the Office for National Statistics. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and San Francisco's Mary Daly echoed this view, saying that it could be appropriate to slow the pace to assess economic conditions better. Germany's current account surplus narrowed sharply to EUR 14.8 billion in September 2022 from EUR 23.5 billion in the same month last year. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.04% to settle at 14712 while prices are down -340 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 60898 and below same could see a test of 60226 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 62504, a move above could see prices testing 63438.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 60226-63438.
* Silver dropped on profit booking after prices rose as a sharper-than-expected drop in US inflation reignited bets that Fed would slow the pace of its interest-rate
* Consumer prices rose by 7.7% annually in October, slowing for the fourth month from the peak hit in June.
* Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 50bps in its December meeting before reaching a terminal funds rate of 5% in March.
 

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 1.32% at 7124 as news of China relaxing some of its stringent coronavirus-induced restrictions lifted the outlook for demand. The world's top oil importer shortened quarantines by two days for close contact with infected people and inbound travelers and removed airlines' penalties for bringing in too many cases. On top of that, prospects that global oil markets would remain extremely tight continued to lend optimism to bulls. OPEC+ has recently agreed to cut production by 2 million barrels per day in November. Keeping a lid on prices were persistent concerns about a potential recession-driven demand downturn triggered by an aggressive tightening from major central banks. U.S. crude production and petroleum demand will both rise in 2022 as the economy grows, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO). EIA projected that crude production will rise to 11.83 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2022 and 12.31 million bpd in 2023 from 11.25 million bpd in 2021. That compares with a record 12.29 million bpd in 2019. The agency also projected petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption would rise from 19.89 million bpd in 2021 to 20.38 million bpd in 2022 and 20.48 million bpd in 2023. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -33.58% to settle at 5193 while prices are up 93 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7006 and below same could see a test of 6888 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7250, a move above could see prices testing 7376.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6888-7376.
* Crude oil gains as news of China relaxing some of its stringent coronavirus-induced restrictions lifted the outlook for demand.
* Prospects that global oil markets would remain extremely tight continued to lend optimism to bulls.
* U.S. crude output and petroleum demand to rise in 2022 – EIA

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -2.9% at 476 on forecasts for less cold and heating demand next week than previously expected. Freeport LNG, however, has said repeatedly that it still expects the 2.1 billion-cubic-feet-per-day (bcfd) export plant to return to at least partial service in November following an unexpected shutdown on June 8 caused by a pipeline explosion. Demand for gas will rise once Freeport returns. Futures were also under pressure due to what will likely be federal reports showing much bigger-than-usual gas storage builds this week and next, and expectations that Subtropical Storm Nicole will strengthen into a hurricane before hitting the East Coast of Florida Wednesday night and then moving up the U.S. East Coast toward Georgia and the Carolinas on Friday. U.S. natural gas production and demand will rise to record highs in 2022, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). EIA projected dry gas production will rise to 98.07 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2022 and 99.69 bcfd in 2023 from a record 94.57 bcfd in 2021. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.83% to settle at 8643 while prices are down -14.2 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 454.8 and below same could see a test of 433.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 510.8, a move above could see prices testing 545.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 433.6-545.6.
* Natural gas dropped on forecasts for less cold and heating demand next week than previously expected.
* The market also remained hyper focused on rumors that the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas may not return in November
* U.S. natgas output, demand to hit record highs in 2022

Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 2.32% at 702.25 as cooler-than-expected inflation in the US lowered expectations on the extent of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, supporting industrial demand. Prices were also supported by looming concerns of low supply. Commodity trader Trafigura warned that global copper stocks have fallen to record lows, with current inventories enough to supply world consumption for just 4.9 days. Freeport-McMoran was also vocal about shortage risks, stating that current low prices do not reflect the tightness in the physical market. Still, sharper increases were limited by the worsening macroeconomic backdrop in top consumer China. Covid outbreaks in the country ramped up fears of strict lockdowns and further cemented officials’ vows to stick to the zero-Covid policy, erasing hopes of a rebound in economic activity. Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 29.0 % from last Friday, the exchange said. The demand for the metal has led to multiple ventures collaborating for the copper and copper semis value chain. All involved in multiple activities, such as mining, smelting, fire refining, electrolytic refining, melting, alloying, scraping, casting, and semis supply. The global demand for copper will grow at approximately 3-5% CAGR between 2021-2024. The electronics, transportation and construction sectors will be the major growth drivers for copper melting, mining, and supply. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 11.4% to settle at 6205 while prices are up 15.9 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 695.5 and below same could see a test of 688.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 706.7, a move above could see prices testing 711.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 688.6-711.
* Copper rose as cooler-than-expected inflation in the US lowered expectations on the extent of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, supporting industrial demand.
* Prices were also supported by looming concerns of low supply.
* Shanghai warehouse copper stocks up 29%
 

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 3.59% at 269.75 after China eased some coronavirus rules, fuelling expectations that it will abandon a zero-COVID policy that has reduced economic activity and demand for metals. Metals prices had already jumped after softer than expected U.S. inflation data suggested the U.S. Federal Reserve could scale back interest rate rises. The news gave hope that major restraints on economic growth could be less severe than feared in the coming months. China's easing included shortening quarantines by two days for close contacts of infected people and for inbound travellers but a full dismantling of COVID controls may be along way off. The country is still struggling to control a wave of infections and recent economic data has been unexpectedly weak. Economies are faltering elsewhere too, with the European Commission forecasting 0.3% euro zone growth next year and Moody's cutting India's growth projection to 4.8% in 2023. Data shows that zinc ingot social inventories across seven major markets in China totalled 60,500 mt as of November 11, up 400 mt from this Monday (November 7) and up 1,000 mt from a week earlier (November 4). In Shanghai, zinc ingots of some brands began to arrive in the market in the middle of the week, while the purchasing demand among downstream buyers declined due to the intensive stockpiling in the previous week. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.63% to settle at 2394 while prices are up 9.35 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 263.9 and below same could see a test of 258 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 274.3, a move above could see prices testing 278.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 258-278.8.
* Zinc rose after China eased some coronavirus rules, fuelling expectations that it will abandon a zero-COVID policy.
* China's easing included shortening quarantines by two days for close contacts of infected people and for inbound travellers.
* Data shows that zinc ingot social inventories across seven major markets in China totalled 60,500 mt as of November 11, up 400 mt

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 5.03% at 211.8 as the market sentiment was boosted by improving macro data as well as easing pandemic control in China. China produced 3.41 million mt of aluminium in October (31 calendar days), up 7.8% YoY. The daily output stood at 110,100 mt, down 1,204 mt on the month. The output totalled 33.3 million mt from January to October, up 3.3% YoY. In October, the domestic operating aluminium capacity rose slightly and the output in Sichuan and Inner Mongolia increased more significantly. The operating aluminium capacity in Sichuan ramped up to about 360,000 mt, an increase of 160,000 mt MoM. On the supply side, the operating capacity in Sichuan province has been slightly restored, but is unlikely to fully recover by the end of the year due to tight hydropower supply in the dry season. The resumption of idled capacity in Guangxi province was slow, and the release of new capacity in Guizhou and Inner Mongolia fell short of expectations. On the demand side, domestic aluminium downstream consumption is still weak. Chinese installed capacity of aluminium reached 45.16 million mt, and the operating capacity was 40.34 million mt, equalling to a national average operating rate of 89.4%. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 28.67% to settle at 5996 while prices are up 10.15 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 205.1 and below same could see a test of 198.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 216.3, a move above could see prices testing 220.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 198.2-220.6.
* Aluminum rose as the market sentiment was boosted by improving macro data as well as easing pandemic control in China
* China produced 3.41 million mt of aluminium in October (31 calendar days), up 7.8% YoY.
* Domestic aluminium inventories have repeatedly hit new lows due to limited arrivals.

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.3% at 963.8 on low level buying after prices dropped as mentha exports during Apr-Aug 2022 has dropped by 14.27 percent at 886.53 tonnes as compared to 1034.14 tonnes exported during Apr-Aug 2021. Exports in the month of August 2022 were around 238.04 tonnes as against 155.04 tonnes in July 2022 showing a rise of 53.53%. In the month of August 2022 around 238.04 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 227.27 tonnes in August 2021 showing a rose of 4.74%. Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Support also seen amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Spot market, support seen after IMD issues Yellow Alert in key sowing area ; light-moderate rain to continue till Sept 4 impacting arrival in the mandi. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -0.5 Rupees to end at 1110.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.25% to settle at 982 while prices are up 2.9 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 961.2 and below same could see a test of 958.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 966.1, a move above could see prices testing 968.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 958.7-968.5.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -0.5 Rupees to end at 1110.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices gained on low level buying after prices dropped as exports during Apr-Aug 2022 has dropped by 14.27 percent
* August exports were around 238.04 tonnes showing a rise of 53.53% compared to July 2022.
* However, Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 1.52% at 7602 as unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops. Arrivals has been dropped by 26% Y-o-Y due to lower production as about 11248 tonnes of turmeric arrived at APMC mandies across India in Sep’22 compared to 15758 tonnes of previous year for corresponding month. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, as on 06th October 2022 Turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares as compared to last year same period 19,376 hectares, down by 12.67% till date. Turmeric exports during Apr-August 2022 has rose by 15.35 percent at 74,393.62 tonnes as compared to 64,493.34 tonnes exported during Apr- August 2021. In the month of August 2022 around 12,147.89 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,810.36 tonnes in July 2022 showing a drop of 5.17%. In the month of August 2022 around 12,147.89 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 11,617.90 tonnes in August 2021 showing a rise of 4.56%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7403.8 Rupees gained 83.65 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.79% to settle at 8850 while prices are up 114 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7512 and below same could see a test of 7420 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7684, a move above could see prices testing 7764.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7420-7764.
* Turmeric prices gained in last some sessions as unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops.
* As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares, down by 12.67% till date from last year.
* Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7403.8 Rupees gained 83.65 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.63% at 24845 due to moisture conditions as a result of higher rainfall sowing may be delayed by 10 to 15 days current year. Current year Jeera sowing is likely to start from October last week or November first week in Gujarat growing regions. However, reports sowing started in some parts of Rajasthan as moisture conditions is less and completed around 2% to 3% in the key growing regions. Current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions. Jeera exports during Apr-August 2022 has dropped by 26.44 percent at 91,505.49 tonnes as compared to 1,24,390.31 tonnes exported during Apr- August 2021. In the month of August 2022 around 24,448.33 tonnes jeera was exported as against 19,866.18 tonnes in July 2022 showing a rise of 18.74%. In the month of August 2022 around 24,448.33 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 17,460.60 tonnes in August 2021 showing a rise of 40.02%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -127.8 Rupees to end at 24457.25 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 7.13% to settle at 6765 while prices are up 155 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 24665 and below same could see a test of 24480 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 25015, a move above could see prices testing 25180.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 24480-25180.
* Jeera gained due to moisture conditions as a result of higher rainfall sowing may be delayed by 10 to 15 days
* Current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions.
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -127.8 Rupees to end at 24457.25 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 1.5% at 33220 as cotton production is expected to fall dramatically in Telangana as a result of the four months of incessant rain and pest attacks. While cotton output is expected to be low, cotton quality is also likely to be affected by the same factors. Cotton farmers have demanded a minimum support price (MSP) of ?12,000 a quintal during the current season, saying the cost of production has increased significantly, while yields have dropped. India is likely to produce 34.4 million bales of cotton in the 2022/23 season that started on Oct. 1, up 12% from a year ago after farmers expanded the crop area. India’s cotton output for the season ended September 30, 2022, fell to 307.5 lakh bales (against 360.13 lakh bales estimated at the beginning of the season in October last year. This is the lowest since 2007-08, when the production was 307 lakh bales. WASDE report said world trade is projected to be nearly 1 million bales lower from September, with declines in imports by China, Pakistan, Mexico, Turkey and Vietnam. The agency lowered its U.S. exports forecast by 100,000 bales to 12.5 million bales, while also cutting export estimates for Australia, Brazil, India, Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, Greece and Mexico. "In the 2022/23 world balance sheet this month, consumption is 3.0 million bales lower and ending stocks are 3.1 million bales higher," the USDA said. In spot market, Cotton gained by 170 Rupees to end at 32630 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 3.61% to settle at 2241 while prices are up 490 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 32810 and below same could see a test of 32410 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 33430, a move above could see prices testing 33650.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 32410-33650.
* Cotton prices gained in last some sessions as cotton production is expected to fall dramatically in Telangana
* The pink worm harmed the cotton flock and will have an impact on output.
* However, India is likely to produce 34.4 million bales of cotton in the 2022/23 season, up 12% from a year ago
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 170 Rupees to end at 32630 Rupees.

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