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Gold
Gold yesterday settled down by -0.2% at 50870 as the latest US jobs report surprised markets to the upside and raised concerns of further monetary policy tightening. Data showed the US economy added 390,000 jobs in May, posting higher than expected and reinforcing bets of additional rate hikes going into the second half of the year. The Fed has raised interest rates by an aggregate of 75 basis points this year and is widely expected to increase rates by another 50 bps at each of the next two meetings in June and July, while its actions after that remain up for debate. Investors now look ahead to the May consumer price index for release later this week to gauge whether US inflation has peaked. India's gold imports in May jumped 677% from a year ago to the highest level in a year as correction in prices just before a key festival and wedding season boosted retail jewellery purchases. Higher imports by the world's second-biggest bullion consumer could support benchmark gold prices, but the surge could increase India's trade deficit and put pressure on ailing rupee. India imported 101 tonnes of gold in May, compared to 13 tonnes a year earlier. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.54% to settled at 14268 while prices down -100 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 50745 and below same could see a test of 50621 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 51063, a move above could see prices testing 51257.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 50621-51257.
Gold dropped as the latest US jobs report surprised markets to the upside and raised concerns of further monetary policy tightening.
Data showed the US economy added 390,000 jobs in May, posting higher than expected and reinforcing bets of additional rate hikes going into the second half of the year.
India's May gold imports surge multifold as prices correct before key festival


Silver
Silver yesterday settled up by 1.02% at 62299 supported by safe-haven demand stemming from persistent geopolitical tensions and lingering concerns about slowing global growth and inflation. Investors watching out for U.S. inflation data and major central bank policy meetings to shed light on the path of interest rate hikes. Investors have ramped up their bets on ECB's interest rate hikes this year, and priced in a bigger, 50 basis-point hike by October. The US Central Bank has raised its benchmark policy rate by half a percentage point for the first time since 2000 in early May while signaling it intended to increase it by the same amount in June. Risk sentiment improved in financial markets, as China eased lockdown restrictions and U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said on Sunday that President Joe Biden has asked his team to look at the option of lifting some tariffs on China to fight inflation. On the data front, survey results from S&P Global showed that the China Caixin services Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 41.4 in May from a 26-month low of 36.2 in April, although a score below 50.0 indicates contraction in the sector. Market participants also await a European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting on Thursday for confirmation whether the central bank will raise rates at the July 21 policy meeting. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -12.1% to settled at 10747 while prices up 630 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 61893 and below same could see a test of 61488 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 62866, a move above could see prices testing 63434.
Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 61488-63434.
Silver gains supported by safe-haven demand stemming from persistent geopolitical tensions and lingering concerns about slowing global growth and inflation.
Investors have ramped up their bets on ECB's interest rate hikes this year, and priced in a bigger, 50 basis-point hike by October.
U.S. consumer inflation data awaited on Friday


Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.11% at 9225 on profit booking on after prices gained as Saudi Arabia sharply raised prices for its crude sales in July, highlighting tight global supplies even after OPEC+ agreed to accelerate its output increases over the next two months. Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, raised July crude oil prices for Asian buyers to higher-than-expected levels amid concerns about tight supply and expectations of strong demand in summer. The official selling price (OSP) for July-loading Arab Light to Asia was hiked by $2.1 a barrel from June to $6.5 a barrel over Oman/Dubai quotes, just off an all-time-high recorded in May. OPEC+ decided to increase output in July and August by 648,000 barrels per day or 50% more than previously planned. Meanwhile, traders assessed reports that the US was considering allowing more sanctioned Iranian and Venezuelan oil onto global markets to make up for Russian crude. U.S. East Coast distillate inventories fell last week to the lowest on record, Energy Information Administration data showed. East Coast distillate stocks fell to about 21 million barrels, the data showed. Meanwhile, East Coast refiner utilization rose to 98.2%, highest since July 2018. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.8% to settled at 12470 while prices down -10 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 9140 and below same could see a test of 9054 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 9317, a move above could see prices testing 9408.
Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 9054-9408.
Crude oil settled flat on profit booking on after prices gained as Saudi Arabia sharply raised prices for its crude sales in July, highlighting tight global supplies
OPEC+ decided to increase output in July and August by 648,000 barrels per day or 50% more than previously planned.
US East Coast distillate stocks fall to lowest on record – EIA


Nat.Gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 8.78% at 725.8 on forecasts for hotter weather and higher demand than previously expected, a decline in output, rising liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and record power demand in Texas. Power demand in Texas is set to break the all-time record this week, far ahead of the hottest days of summer, testing the resilience of the state's power grid after issues earlier this year and last year's days-long blackout during a deep freeze. U.S. gas futures were up about 142% so far this year, as much higher prices in Europe and Asia keep demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports strong, especially since Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine stoked fears that Moscow might cut gas supplies to Europe. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 94.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June from 95.1 bcfd in May. That compares with a monthly record of 96.1 bcfd in December 2021. With the coming of hotter summer weather, Refinitiv projected that average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 87.1 bcfd this week to 90.0 bcfd next week to keep more air conditioners humming. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 87.99% to settled at 10116 while prices up 58.6 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 696.6 and below same could see a test of 667.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 741.1, a move above could see prices testing 756.4.
Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 667.4-756.4.
Natural gas jumped on forecasts for hotter weather and higher demand than previously expected
Support also seen amid a decline in output, rising liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and record power demand in Texas.
Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 94.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June from 95.1 bcfd in May.



Copper
Copper yesterday settled down by -0.18% at 798.55 as disappointing services PMI data from China prompted some profit-taking after a rally that drove prices to a six-week peak last week. Still, fundamentals in the copper complex continue to be supported by prospects of solid demand amid easing coronavirus-induced restrictions and pledges for more stimulus in top consumer China. On top of that, investors grew optimistic that the United States would cut tariffs on Beijing that were put into place by former President Donald Trump. China's cabinet last week announced a package of 33 measures covering fiscal, financial, investment and industrial policies to revive its pandemic-ravaged economy. China's central bank, meanwhile, said it will strengthen the implementation of its prudent monetary policy and bring forward steps to support the economy. Stocks of copper in LME-registered warehouses, at 140,975 tonnes, have dropped more than 20% since the middle of May. Cancelled warrants – metal earmarked for delivery – at 34% indicate that more metal is due to leave the LME system. Peru's Cabinet met on Friday to try and find a truce to the ongoing conflict that has paralysed operations at MMG Ltd's Las Bambas copper mine, but ministers left in the afternoon without announcing a decision. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.88% to settled at 3511 while prices down -1.45 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 794 and below same could see a test of 789.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 801, a move above could see prices testing 803.5.
Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 789.5-803.5.
Copper dropped as disappointing services PMI data from China prompted some profit-taking after a rally that drove prices to a six-week peak last week.
Investors grew optimistic that the United States would cut tariffs on Beijing that were put into place by former President Donald Trump.
China's central bank, said it will strengthen the implementation of its prudent monetary policy and bring forward steps to support the economy


Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.79% at 332.75 on profit booking as the consumption market was poor with sluggish transactions. Zinc ingot social inventory across seven major markets dropped 14,000 mt from a week ago as of June 6, boosting market sentiment to some extent. In China, domestic policies repeatedly emphasised stable economic growth, and the world has raised their expectations on China’s resumption of work and production. The Caixin China General Services PMI increased to 41.4 in May 2022 from April's 26-month low of 36.2, the third straight month of contraction amid further COVID-19 lockdown measures. The latest reading also pointed to the second-sharpest drop in the sector since February 2020, with new orders declining at a softer. Also, employment fell modestly, with the rate of job shedding was the fastest in 15 months; while the level of outstanding business rose further though the rate of backlog accumulation was the steepest since February 2020. On inflation, input cost inflation eased to a nine-month low, while output costs climbed, after declining in the prior month, due to companies passed on some of these additional costs through to clients. Finally, confidence strengthened to a three-month high, due to hopes of a strong recovery once the pandemic is brought under control and market conditions normalise. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -18.5% to settled at 1040 while prices down -2.65 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 329.1 and below same could see a test of 325.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 337.2, a move above could see prices testing 341.6.
Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 325.4-341.6.
Zinc prices dropped on profit booking as the consumption market was poor with sluggish transactions.
China services shrink at softer pace
Zinc ingot social inventory across seven major markets dropped 14,000 mt from a week ago as of June 6



Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled up by 1.8% at 237.05 after the lifting of COVID lockdowns in top consumer China boosted demand prospects while dwindling inventories provided further support. Beijing and commercial hub Shanghai have been returning to normal in recent days after two months of bitter isolation under a ruthless COVID-19 lockdown. China's central bank will strengthen the implementation of its prudent monetary policy and bring forward steps to support the economy, vice governor Pan Gonsheng said last week. The Caixin China General Composite PMI rose to 42.2 in May of 2022 from April's 26-month low of 27.2, amid easing of COVID-19 curbs in Shanghai and Beijing. Rates of reduction moderated across both the manufacturing and service sectors, with the latter seeing the steeper rate of decline overall. New orders dropped the least in three months, while employment fell at the steepest pace since February 2021. On the cost side, inflationary pressures softened, with input costs rising the least since February, while prices charged fell slightly for the second month running, on price discounting at manufacturers. The Caixin China General Services PMI increased to 41.4 in May 2022 from April's 26-month low of 36.2, the third straight month of contraction amid further COVID-19 lockdown measures. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -11.94% to settled at 2656 while prices up 4.2 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 233.6 and below same could see a test of 230.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 239.1, a move above could see prices testing 241.2.
Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 230.2-241.2.
Aluminium rose after the lifting of COVID lockdowns in China boosted demand prospects while dwindling inventories provided further support.
Beijing and commercial hub Shanghai have been returning to normal in recent days after two months of bitter isolation under a ruthless COVID-19 lockdown.
China private sector contracts at softer rate


Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -1.36% at 1033.5 on profit booking after prices seen supported in recent sessions amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Support also seen with Rupee weakness export demand is going to be firm also post pandemic global demand is improving. However, upside seen limited as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. The harvest is expected to be almost the same as last year's in Barabanki area but harvesting this year is expected to be delayed. Crop growth is poor this year compared with last year despite use of fertiliser. The plant is about 25% less than the total crop, water is being felt after every three days. Prices gained on reports that due to poor prices farmers has shifted to other crops resulting lower production. Germany's BASF said it would have to stop production if natural gas supplies fell to less than half its needs, as the world's largest chemicals group warned of the damage to its operations from Europe's power crunch. Mentha farming has lost its allure in Uttar Pradesh as farmers struggle without stable price, MSP and government support. High input costs and lack of support price have drastically brought down the return of farmers who have already been struggling to increase their incomes. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 2 Rupees to end at 1179.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.26% to settled at 910 while prices down -14.2 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1025.9 and below same could see a test of 1018.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1039, a move above could see prices testing 1044.6.
Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1018.4-1044.6.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 2 Rupees to end at 1179.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported in recent sessions amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic.
Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.
With Rupee weakness export demand is going to be firm also post pandemic global demand is improving.


Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.1% at 7996 on profit booking after prices seen supported as the arrivals of New season turmeric are diminishing and exports demand is improving as season progresses. Traders and exporters are expecting the prices to remain stable as Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh turmeric arrivals have also increased. Kocha arrivals are good at markets in Sangli, Hingoli and Nanded regions in Maharashtra. Due to aggressive coverages by oleoresin companies, prices were steady during the month. Panangali arrivals have started in Salem, Erode and Gundalpet markets. Turmeric harvesting in Indonesia is likely to start during June – July 2022. Crop is reported to be normal. Currently, export demand is normal but is expected to pick up. As per latest export figures, turmeric exports in Feb 2022 were lower by 17% y/y at 10400 tonnes vs 12,575 tonnes while in FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb), exports down 20% at 1.37 lakh tons compared to last year but higher by 8.3% compared with 5-year average. Domestic demand reduced particularly with the new season crop supplies from Marathwada region of Maharashtra during April. Export demand too reported sluggish despite report of some queries from Bangladesh. Turmeric all India production for 2022 is estimated at 4.67 lakh tonnes, revised after crop damage due to excessive rainfall in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana during October and November. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8367.25 Rupees gained 128.9 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.44% to settled at while prices down -8 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7902 and below same could see a test of 7808 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8094, a move above could see prices testing 8192.
Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 7808-8192.
Turmeric dropped on profit booking after prices seen supported as the arrivals of New season turmeric are diminishing and exports demand is improving.
Traders and exporters are expecting the prices to remain stable as Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh turmeric arrivals have also increased.
Turmeric harvesting in Indonesia is likely to start during June – July 2022 and crop is reported to be normal.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8367.25 Rupees gained 128.9 Rupees.


Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.09% at 21275 on profit booking after prices seen supported because of lower production of the spice in the country, partly because many farmers shifted to more lucrative commodities. On daily basis Jeera arrivals in Unjha market were around 5,000 bags, Saurashtra and Gondal market around 800 t0 1,000 bags are arriving. Similarly, in Rajasthan also daily arrivals have remained weak, in Jodhpur market around 1,500 bags, at Nagaur 500 bags and other centres 500 bags arrivals noted. Currently, steady demand can be seen from Bangladesh and other Islamic countries. And due to Bakri-Eid in July further increase in demand is expected. Demand from China has declined due to higher domestic prices in India. Around 32,407 tonnes and 42,788 tonnes have been exported to Bangladesh and China respectively during 2021-22 (Apr-Feb). Cumin seed exports during the current season are likely to remain low as the current crop is very less this time. Cumin seed exports during 2021-22 (Apr-Feb) has declined by 24 percent at 1.91 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.52 lakh tonnes exported last year same period. In the month of February 2022 around 12,988 tonnes cumin seed exported as against 17,114 in February 2021. In International markets, Indian Jeera is quoted around 2850 to 2950 dollar per tonnes. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 14.8 Rupees to end at 21342.4 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.71% to settled at while prices down -20 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 21210 and below same could see a test of 21140 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21390, a move above could see prices testing 21500.
Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 21140-21500.
Jeera settled down on profit booking after prices seen supported because of lower production, because many farmers shifted to more lucrative commodities.
Currently, steady demand can be seen from Bangladesh and other Islamic countries. And due to Bakri-Eid in July further increase in demand is expected.
Jeera arrivals in Unjha market were around 5,000 bags, Saurashtra and Gondal market around 800 t0 1,000 bags are arriving
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 14.8 Rupees to end at 21342.4 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton
Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.13% at 46280 as India’s cotton sowing acreage declined 2.35 per cent to 10.73 lakh hectare till June 3 this season, according to the first weekly Kharif 2022 sowing report, released by the ministry of agriculture. Currently, sowing in Karnataka & Northern states of Haryana, Punjab and Rajasthan recorded slow progress. Cotton was sown on around 13.08 lakh hectare during the corresponding period of last year. The area coverage has been reported mainly from the states of Haryana (5.90 lakh ha), Punjab (2.31 lakh ha), Rajasthan (1.54 lakh ha) and Karnataka (0.72 lakh ha). Cotton sowing is delayed in Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan due to delay in release of canal water. Normally, the sowing should have been completed till mid of May, but large number of farmers could not sow the fibre crop during the sowing period. As per information, farmers have shifted to other crops as delayed cotton sowing is prone to disease. Cotton planting in India could jump as much as 15% in 2022 to an all-time high, as strong prices prompt farmers to switch away from other crops. A 15% rise in India's cotton crop area would lift it to around 13.8 million hectares in 2022 from 12 million hectares last year. In spot market, Cotton gained by 90 Rupees to end at 47270 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.86% to settled at 2615 while prices up 60 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 46020 and below same could see a test of 45760 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 46570, a move above could see prices testing 46860.
Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 45760-46860.
Cotton gains as India’s cotton sowing acreage declined 2.35 per cent to 10.73 lakh hectare till June 3 this season
Cotton planting in India, could jump as much as 15% in 2022 to an all-time high
A 15% rise in India's cotton crop area would lift it to around 13.8 million hectares in 2022 from 12 million hectares last year.
In spot market, Cotton gained  by 90 Rupees to end at 47270 Rupees.

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