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Gold
Gold yesterday settled up by 0.24% at 50621 as support seen after the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose by 4K to 235K in the week that ended July 2nd, compared to market expectations of 230K, suggesting labor market conditions could be moderating. With the increase, jobless claims increased to their highest since January of this year. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June meeting pointed to consensus that interest rates need to rise further to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched. Policymakers emphasized the importance of fighting higher consumer prices, even if it hampers growth, strengthening bets that the Fed may hike its funds rate by 75bps this month and adding to the dollar’s safety appeal. Demand for the greenback was also supported by the looming energy crisis in Europe and political turmoil in the United Kingdom. In the meantime, the European Central bank is also expected to start raising borrowing costs this month and signaled an accelerated tightening path for the rest of Q3 if inflation remains high, with investors expecting that the central bank’s deposit rate could move to positive territory by October. The gold imports by India witnessed three-fold jump during the month of June this year, compared with the same month a year before. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.63% to settled at 9561 while prices up 121 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 50512 and below same could see a test of 50403 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 50780, a move above could see prices testing 50939.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 50403-50939.
* Gold gained as support seen after the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose by 4K to 235K
* Minutes from the Fed’s meeting pointed to consensus that interest rates need to rise further to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched.
* BofA cuts gold price forecast for 2022 to $1,938/oz from $1,957/oz; 2023 unchanged

Silver
Silver yesterday settled up by 0.38% at 56939 tracking firmness in base metals and crude oil prices as the dollar index eased after minutes from the Fed's June meeting suggested that another interest rate increase of 50 or 75 basis points is likely at the July meeting to tame inflation. Fed policymakers continued to anticipate that ongoing increases in the fed funds rate would be appropriate, and backed a 50 or 75 basis points hike in July, FOMC minutes from the June meeting showed. Officials also noted that the US economic outlook warranted moving to a restrictive stance of policy, and they recognized the possibility that an even more restrictive stance could be appropriate if elevated inflation pressures were to persist. At the same time, they noted that policy firming could slow economic growth for a time, but they saw the return of inflation to 2% as critical to achieving maximum employment on a sustained basis. The Federal Reserve increased the funds rate by 75bps to 1.5%-1.75% during its June 2022 meeting, instead of 50bps initially expected. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week and there are growing signs that demand for labor is cooling, with layoffs surging to a 16-month high in June as the Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary policy tightening stokes recession fears. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.51% to settled at 21348 while prices up 213 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 56715 and below same could see a test of 56491 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 57298, a move above could see prices testing 57657.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 56491-57657.
* Silver remained supported tracking firmness in base metals and crude oil prices as the dollar index eased after minutes from the Fed's June meeting
* The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week and there are growing signs that demand for labor is cooling
* Fed says more restrictive stance could be needed

Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled up by 5.52% at 8195 supported by concerns of tight supply amid lower OPEC output. The Biden administration has announced fresh sanctions on Iran amid continuing diplomatic efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran. The American Petroleum Institute reported U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 3.825 million barrels last week. The build came after the Department of Energy released 5.9 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves in the week ending July 1. Meanwhile, the US and its allies have discussed trying to cap the prices of Russian oil between $40 and about $60 a barrel. On the supply side, traders are bracing for oil supply disruptions at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which has been told by a Russian court to suspend activity for 30 days. In a sign that oil supply may remain tight, Washington tightened sanctions on OPEC member Iran on Wednesday, pressuring Tehran as it seeks to revive a 2015 Iran nuclear deal and unleash its exports from U.S. sanctions. U.S. shipments of crude oil via rail in April fell by 45,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the previous month to 220,000 bpd, according to data by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.69% to settled at 4757 while prices up 429 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 7875 and below same could see a test of 7554 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8393, a move above could see prices testing 8590.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 7554-8590.
* Crude oil gains supported by concerns of tight supply amid lower OPEC output.
* The Biden administration has announced fresh sanctions on Iran amid continuing diplomatic efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran.
* The American Petroleum Institute reported U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 3.825 million barrels last week.

Natural gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 12.2% at 492.2 as daily output fell over the past couple of days and on forecasts for higher demand this week than previously expected. Freeport, the second-biggest U.S. LNG export plant, was consuming about 2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas before it shut on June 8. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 95.9 bcfd so far in July from 95.1 bcfd in June. Over the past two days, however, output was on track to drop 2.4 bcfd to a preliminary three-week low of 94.2 bcfd on Thursday. Preliminary data is often revised later in the day. With hotter weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand including exports would rise from 96.2 bcfd this week to 99.0 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than Refinitiv's outlook. Power demand in Texas was expected to keep breaking records this week and next as a heatwave lingers over the state. The average amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has held at 11.2 bcfd so far in July, the same as June. That was down from 12.5 bcfd in May and a monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March due to the Freeport outage. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -24.87% to settled at 3897 while prices up 53.5 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 452.1 and below same could see a test of 412.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 518.3, a move above could see prices testing 544.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 412.1-544.5.
* Natural gas rose as daily output fell over the past couple of days and on forecasts for higher demand this week than previously expected.
* Power demand in Texas was expected to keep breaking records this week and next as a heatwave lingers over the state.
* Freeport, the second-biggest U.S. LNG export plant, was consuming about 2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas before it shut on June 8.

Copper
Copper yesterday settled up by 3.05% at 664.85 as a slight pullback in the U.S. dollar and economic support measures in China offered some respite after heightened recession fears sent the metal to its lowest in nearly 20 months. The head of International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, said the global economy outlook had "darkened significantly" since April and she could not rule out a possible global recession next year given the elevated risks. Central banks around the world are raising interest rates sharply to rein in soaring inflation, restraining economic growth. Peru said that its copper output fell 11.2% in May from a year-ago after a stoppage at its Las Bambas mine and lower quality production in other deposits. Output from the world's second biggest copper producer totaled 174,258 tonnes in May, while output in the first five months of the year reached 898,175 tonnes, representing a drop of 0.3%, the Energy and Mines Ministry said in a report. China's foreign exchange reserves fell more than expected in June, official data showed, as the dollar climbed against other major currencies. The country's foreign exchange reserves – the world's largest – fell $56.5 billion to $3.071 trillion last month, compared with $3.128 trillion in May. For the first half of 2022, China's foreign exchange reserves fell $178.9 billion, inching towards a closely watched threshold at $3 trillion. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.03% to settled at 5340 while prices up 19.7 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 651.2 and below same could see a test of 637.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 673.6, a move above could see prices testing 682.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 637.4-682.2.
* Copper prices rose as a slight pullback in the U.S. dollar and economic support measures in China offered some respite
* Peru copper output drops 11.2% in May after stoppage at key mine
* BofA cuts copper price forecast for 2022 to $8,751/t from $9,999/t; to $7,250/t from $9,500/t for 2023

Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled up by 2.52% at 280.3 as China's refined zinc output stood at 490,300 mt in June, down 24,900 mt or 4.84% MoM and 17,700 mt or 3.48% YoY. From January to June 2022, the combined refined zinc output was 2.973 million mt, a decrease of 1.49% year on year. The output of domestic refined zinc decreased in June and was less than expected. The output increment was mainly brought about by a smelter in Inner Mongolia which resumed the production after maintenance. In addition, a large smelter in Hunan resumed normal production in June after a minor overhaul. Some smelters in Shaanxi and Sichuan increased the production. Therefore, the output increased. The US services sector dropped to a more than two-year low in June. The US ISM non-manufacturing PMI registered 55.3 in June, above the forecast of 54.3 but below the previous value of 55.9, falling to its lowest level in two years. China's foreign exchange reserves fell more than expected in June, official data showed, as the dollar climbed against other major currencies. The country's foreign exchange reserves – the world's largest – fell $56.5 billion to $3.071 trillion last month, compared with $3.128 trillion in May. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.65% to settled at 1458 while prices up 6.9 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 274.7 and below same could see a test of 269.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 284.2, a move above could see prices testing 288.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 269.1-288.1.
* Zinc gained as refined zinc output declined more than expected amid the tight raw material supply
* The US ISM non-manufacturing PMI registered 55.3 in June, above the forecast of 54.3
* BofA cuts zinc price forecast for 2022 to $3,348/t from $3,997/t; to $2,625/t from $3,250/t for 2023

Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled up by 1.63% at 211.45 boosted by expectations of higher demand from top consumer China on the back of new stimulus measures. The aluminium ingot social inventories across China’s eight major markets totalled 723,000 mt as of July 7, down 11,000 mt from last Thursday and 135,000 mt lower than in the same period last year. Inventory in Wuxi continued to decline as some downstream buyers purchased on the dips after aluminium prices fell to around 18,000 yuan/mt over the past two days while some buyers picked up cargoes in advance out of fears that the transportation would be restricted amid the resurgence of the pandemic. The inventories of aluminium billets in China’s major markets dropped by 4,700 mt on a weekly basis as of July 7. Falling aluminium prices and increased uncertainties over transportation amid the increase in COVID-19 infections boosted downstream willingness to purchase. However, downstream orders indicate that consumption is showing signs of weakening, thus the decline in aluminium billet inventory may be unsustainable. China's foreign exchange reserves fell more than expected in June, official data showed, as the dollar climbed against other major currencies. The country's foreign exchange reserves – the world's largest – fell $56.5 billion to $3.071 trillion last month, compared with $3.128 trillion in May. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.38% to settled at 2735 while prices up 3.4 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 207 and below same could see a test of 202.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 215.1, a move above could see prices testing 218.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 202.5-218.7.
* Aluminium gains boosted by expectations of higher demand from top consumer China on the back of new stimulus measures.
* Aluminium ingot social inventories across China’s seen down 11,000 mt from last Thursday.
* BofA cuts aluminium price forecast for 2022 to $2721/t from $3,315/t; to $3,563/t from $4,125/t for 2023

Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.33% at 1025.1 amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. However, upside seen limited as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The harvest is expected to be almost the same as last year's in Barabanki area but harvesting this year is expected to be delayed. Crop growth is poor this year compared with last year despite use of fertiliser. The plant is about 25% less than the total crop, water is being felt after every three days. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year we forecast production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. Germany's BASF said it would have to stop production if natural gas supplies fell to less than half its needs, as the world's largest chemicals group warned of the damage to its operations from Europe's power crunch. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -0.9 Rupees to end at 1130.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.92% to settled at 1184 while prices up 3.4 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1020.5 and below same could see a test of 1015.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1031.2, a move above could see prices testing 1037.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1015.9-1037.3.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -0.9 Rupees to end at 1130.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil gains amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic.
* However, upside seen limited as Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.
* Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry.

Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.22% at 7932 amid reports of sufficient stocks and good sowing progress in south India is pressurizing the prices. However downside seen limited as arrivals of New season turmeric are diminishing and exports demand is improving as season progresses. Turmeric exports during 2021-22 (Apr-Mar) has improved by 4 percent at 1.78 lakh tonnes as compared to 1.72 lakh tonnes exported during 2020-21. In the month of March 2022 around 15,751.54 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,361.20 in March 2021 showing an increase of 22%. In the month of April 2022 around 13,762.59 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 13,282.53 in April 2021 showing an increase of 4%. In the month of April 2022 around 13,762.59 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 15,751.54 in March 2022 showing a decline of 13%. Turmeric harvesting in Indonesia is likely to start during June – July 2022. Crop is reported to be normal. Domestic demand reduced particularly with the new season crop supplies from Marathwada region of Maharashtra during April. Turmeric all India production for 2022 is estimated at 4.67 lakh tonnes, revised after crop damage due to excessive rainfall in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana during October and November. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8178.25 Rupees gained 36.65 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 11.19% to settled at 6655 while prices down -98 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7866 and below same could see a test of 7802 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8032, a move above could see prices testing 8134.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7802-8134.
* Turmeric dropped amid reports of sufficient stocks and good sowing progress in south India is pressurizing the prices.
* However downside seen limited as arrivals of New season turmeric are diminishing and exports demand is improving as season progresses.
* In the month of April 2022 around 13,762.59 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 15,751.54 in March 2022 showing a decline of 13%.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8178.25 Rupees gained 36.65 Rupees.

Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.24% at 21870 on profit booking after prices gained as in Gujarat and Rajasthan markets arrivals have remained low. Big traders and stockiest have been holding to stocks anticipating further increase in prices. Cumin seed exports during the current season are likely to remain low as the current crop is very less this time. Cumin seed exports during 2021-22 (Apr-Mar) has declined by 32 percent at 2.17 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.86 lakh tonnes exported during 2020-21. In the month of April 2022 around 10,707.38 tonnes cumin seed exported as against 14,595.43 in March 2022 showing a decline of 27%. In view of the international situation of cumin seeds, all the countries of the whole world are not in a position to get cumin from a single country except India. Syria's crop is reported to have come absolutely negligible in the event of drought. Turkey has exited the international cumin market for the last 2 years. In Afghanistan, cumin has grown by 40 to 50% of the current year. Iran's cumin crop has been cut short and the crop there has been over within a few days of arrival. China's demand for cumin is currently sporadic, with China buying 300 containers of Indian cumin in the month of June, the demand is very low at the moment. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 23.4 Rupees to end at 21989.15 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 11.47% to settled at 8397 while prices down -275 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 21620 and below same could see a test of 21375 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 22190, a move above could see prices testing 22515.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 21375-22515.
* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices gained as in Gujarat and Rajasthan markets arrivals have remained low.
* Syria's crop is reported to have come absolutely negligible in the event of drought.
* Iran's cumin crop has been cut short and the crop there has been over within a few days of arrival.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 23.4 Rupees to end at 21989.15 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton
Cotton yesterday settled up by 2.18% at 41730 after reports Cotton sowing in Gujarat fall by nearly -6% with 1,556,683 hectares against sown area of 2021 which was 1,650,463 hectares. Cotton sowing in Rajasthan witnessed a gain of 8.11% with 598.14 thousand hectares as against 553.26 thousand hectares on the same day last year. India has extended deadline to import cotton without paying import taxes until Oct. 31 from the earlier cut-off date of Sept. 30, the government said in a notification, as the sowing of the fibre crop delayed in some regions due to patchy monsoon rainfall. The world's biggest producer of the fibre had allowed duty free imports in April after local prices jumped to a record high because of a drop in the production and following rally in global prices. The United States Department of Agriculture's report showed that 37% of the cotton crop was in a good-to-excellent condition in the week ending June 26. That compares with 52% for the same period a year ago. Meanwhile, heavy rain will be possible along portions of the Texas coast later this week, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said. There is a rush among farmers in Gujarat for sowing cotton in anticipation of good returns. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -570 Rupees to end at 43430 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.8% to settled at 1667 while prices up 890 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 41040 and below same could see a test of 40340 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 42250, a move above could see prices testing 42760.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 40340-42760.
* Cotton gains after reports Cotton sowing in Gujarat fall by nearly -6% to 1,556,683 hectares
* Telangana Cotton sowing fall by nearly -6.12% to 31,86,635 hectares in 2022.
* Rajasthan Cotton sowing witnessed a gain of 3.94% with 602.33 thousand hectares on the same day last year.
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -570 Rupees to end at 43430 Rupees.

-www.kediaadvisory.com

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