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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.32% at 49114 as worries about inflation and a sell-off in the stock markets pushed up demand for the safe-haven commodity. Pressure increased on the Fed to take a stronger stand against inflation after an unexpectedly large jump in U.S. consumer prices bolstered the view that the central bank is behind the curve. U.S. consumer prices rose solidly in January, leading to the biggest annual increase in inflation in 40 years, fueling financial markets speculation for a hefty 50 basis points interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve next month. Physical gold demand in India was subdued as consumers postponed purchases due to higher domestic prices during the wedding season, while Singapore saw an uptick in activity. Wedding season buying has moderated, but it could pick up in the coming weeks as many states have started easing restrictions. Dealers in India were offering a discount of up to $2.5 an ounce over official domestic prices, inclusive of the 10.75% import and 3% sales levies, up from last week's discount of $1.5. In top consumer China, premiums of about $3 to $6 an ounce were charged over benchmark spot gold rates, with activity still muted after Lunar New Year holiday last week. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.93% to settled at 11360 while prices up 159 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 48794 and below same could see a test of 48473 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 49285, a move above could see prices testing 49455.
Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 48473-49455.
Gold settled higher as worries about inflation and a sell-off in the stock markets pushed up demand for the safe-haven commodity.
Fed's Bullard favors 100 bps interest-rate increases by July 1
Fed's Bullard: should be open to considering inter-meeting increase


Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.44% at 62988 as the dollar rose after U.S. inflation surged to a 40-year peak and comments from a Federal Reserve official unleashed a wave of bets on aggressive rate hikes. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said in an interview that raising rates now would not bring down record euro zone inflation but only hurt the economy. St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said that he has become "dramatically" more hawkish in light of the hottest inflation reading in nearly 40 years, and he now wants a full percentage point of interest rate hikes over the next three U.S. central bank policy meetings. Within minutes, Bullard's view became the market's view, with rate futures contracts now fully pricing an increase in the Fed's target range for its policy rate to 1%-1.25% by the end of its policy meeting in June, with some bets on an even steeper rate hike path. U.S. consumer prices rose solidly in January, leading to the biggest annual increase in inflation in 40 years, fueling financial markets speculation for a hefty 50 basis points interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve next month. Biden in a statement acknowledged the hardships American families are facing, but noted that "there are also signs that we will make it through this challenge." He was alluding to the unchanged reading in the prices of motor vehicles, one of the major drivers of inflation. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.66% to settled at 8560 while prices down -278 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 62323 and below same could see a test of 61659 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 63356, a move above could see prices testing 63725.
 

Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 61659-63725.
Silver dropped as dollar rose after U.S. inflation surged to a 40-year peak and comments from a Fed official unleashed a wave of bets on aggressive rate hikes.
Fed's Bullard calls for big hike in interest rates to fight inflation
U.S. CPI in January jumped 7.5% annually

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 1.79% at 6921 after the International Energy Agency (IEA) said oil markets were tight, but were still heading for weekly losses on inflation worries and U.S.-Iran which could boost global supplies. OPEC said world oil demand might rise even more steeply this year as the global economy posts a strong recovery from the pandemic, a development that would underpin prices already at a seven-year high. Tight oil supply has also given impetus to booming energy markets, and the report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries also showed the group undershot a pledged oil-output rise in January under its pact with allies. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) could help to calm volatile oil markets if they pumped more crude, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said. The UAE and Saudi Arabia are the two oil producers with the most spare production capacity and could help to relieve dwindling global oil inventories that have been among factors pushing prices towards $100 a barrel, deepening inflation worldwide. Iranian oil exports have risen to more than 1 million barrels per day for the first time in almost three years, based on estimates from companies that track the flows, reflecting increased shipments to China. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 27.15% to settled at 13502 while prices up 122 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6783 and below same could see a test of 6644 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6998, a move above could see prices testing 7074.
 

Trading Ideas:
Crude oil trading range for the day is 6644-7074.
Crude oil gained after the International Energy Agency (IEA) said oil markets were tight
OPEC sees upside to 2022 oil demand forecast on strong pandemic recovery
Saudi Arabia and UAE could ease oil market volatility, IEA says

Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -1.5% at 295.3 as output recovers from last week's freezing weather and on forecasts for less cold and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. That price decline came despite a massive storage draw last week that was much bigger than usual for a fourth week in a row due to the cold start to 2022. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled 222 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Feb. 4. That was the first time withdrawals topped 200 bcf for four weeks in a row since the frigid, polar vortex winter of 2013/2014. The total amount of gas in storage fell to 2.101 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 9.3% below the five-year average of 2.316 tcf for this time of the year. Output has been rising almost daily – hitting 94.2 bcfd– since it dropped to 86.3 bcfd during a winter storm on Feb. 4, its lowest since February 2021. With cold weather moderating, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 130.6 bcfd this week to 120.9 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Wednesday. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.4% to settled at 6935 while prices down -4.5 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 290.1 and below same could see a test of 285 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 303.3, a move above could see prices testing 311.4.
 

Trading Ideas:
Natural gas trading range for the day is 285-311.4.
Natural gas slipped as output recovers from last week's freezing weather and on forecasts for less cold and lower heating demand
EIA said utilities pulled 222 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Feb. 4.
The total amount of gas in storage fell to 2.101 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 9.3% below the five-year average of 2.316 tcf for this time of the year.



Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -2.21% at 768 hit by profit-taking and risk-off sentiment in wider financial markets on worries about surging inflation. Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 164.1 percent from last release on Jan 28, the exchange said. U.S. consumer prices showed the biggest annual increase in 40 years, which is expected to prompt tighter monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Chilean state miner Codelco, the world's top copper producer, said that it will seek certification from the Copper Mark sustainability initiative for all its operations by the end of 2023. Copper miners are increasingly looking to prove their sustainability credentials as buyers pay attention to the impact of products on the environment. The Copper Mark was developed in line with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals to demonstrate that copper production is done responsibly, said Codelco. The copper inventories in domestic bonded zones rose 17,150 mt from Monday February 7 to 265,250 mt as of February 11, according to SMM. The inventory in the Shanghai bonded zone rose 12,400 mt to 231,000 mt, while that in Guangdong added 4,750 mt to 34,250 mt on the week. The foreign trade market was extremely quiet as the import losses remained at around 1,000 yuan/mt in the first trading week post the CNY holiday. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -26.74% to settled at 3512 while prices down -17.35 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 760.5 and below same could see a test of 752.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 778.2, a move above could see prices testing 788.3.
 

Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 752.9-788.3.
Copper prices dropped hit by profit-taking and risk-off sentiment in wider financial markets on worries about surging inflation.
Prices were also knocked by large inflows of inventories into ShFE warehouses, with copper surging by 164%
U.S. consumer prices showed the biggest annual increase in 40 years, which is expected to prompt tighter monetary policy from Fed.


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -1.26% at 304.75 as the zinc ingot inventory across the seven major regions in China totalled 242,700 mt, up 24,800 mt from February 7 and up 82,200 mt from January 28, according to data. The domestic inventories continued to accumulate this week. Shanghai continued to attract zinc ingots from smelters as the local zinc prices were higher than in other parts of China, while the inflows of imported zinc were limited, and the inventory in the region increased significantly. Although downstream producers in Guangdong resumed their operations one after another, the local inventory continued to increase as high zinc prices affected the purchases. Pressure also seen amid heightening US rate hike expectations on the back of a 40-high US CPI as well as the better-than-expected China economic readings including China RMB loans and M2 money supplies. The greatly rising social financing reading benefited zinc which is closely correlated with the great infrastructure construction sector. However, the fundamentals of zinc were still weak, and the market shall still watch the overseas energy problem and the demand side under the stimulus from the macro front. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.78% to settled at 1885 while prices down -3.9 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 302.3 and below same could see a test of 299.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 307.8, a move above could see prices testing 310.9.
 

Trading Ideas:
Zinc trading range for the day is 299.9-310.9.
Zinc dropped as the zinc ingot inventory across the seven major regions in China totalled 242,700 mt, up 24,800 mt from February 7
The greatly rising social financing reading benefited zinc which is closely correlated with the great infrastructure construction sector.
The fundamentals of zinc were still weak, and the market shall still watch the overseas energy problem


Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled down by -0.94% at 1766.1 as China's Tsingshan Holding Group has started to deliver nickel matte to Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co Ltd based on an earlier supply agreement. Tsingshan, the world's top nickel and stainless steel producer, reached agreements to provide 60,000 tonnes of nickel matte to Huayou and 40,000 tonnes to CNGR Advanced Material within one year from October 2021. Nickel miner PT Vale Indonesia produced 65,388 tonnes of nickel matte in 2021, down from 72,237 tonnes produced in 2020, the company said in a statement. In the October-December quarter, its nickel matte production was 17,015 tonnes, up 3.5% on an annual basis. On the macro front, China newly added RMB loans as well as social financing both recorded historical highs, while the growth of M2 currency was also higher than estimate. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard even suggested that the combined interest rate hikes shall be 100 basis points before July, heightening market expectations of a rate hike, raising US dollar index. The nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports dipped 10,000 wmt from pre-holiday level to 8.27 million wmt as of February 11. Total Ni content stood at 64,900 mt. The total inventory at seven major ports stood at around 3.94 million wmt, 20,000 wmt lower than Friday January 28. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.77% to settled at 2253 while prices down -16.8 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1745.5 and below same could see a test of 1725 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1788.8, a move above could see prices testing 1811.6.
 

Trading Ideas:
Nickel trading range for the day is 1725-1811.6.
Nickel dropped as China's Tsingshan starts to deliver nickel matte to Huayou Cobalt
Vale Indonesia 2021 nickel matte output down 9.5%
The nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports dipped 10,000 wmt from pre-holiday level to 8.27 million wmt


Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled down by -2.34% at 254.25 as easing supply issues and a stronger dollar prompted some profit-taking. New aluminium arrivals in LME warehouses sent on-warrant stockpiles soaring by 42% to 595,150 tonnes. Still, the commodity is on track for its best week since November 2021, up almost 5% so far, amid shutdowns of smelters in Europe due to the high energy cost and limited production in China amid restrictions related to Covid outbreaks. Data showed that the aluminium ingot social inventory in China totalled 950,000 mt on February 10, 2022, up 84,000 mt from Monday, with Wuxi, Gongyi, Nanhai, and Chongqing being the major contributors to the overall increase. The domestic aluminium billet inventory stood at 267,500 mt on February 10, an increase of 17,600 nt or 7.04% from Monday. The inventory increased across each of the five regions. Foshan was the biggest contributor, with an increase of 9,100 mt or 7.23%, followed by Wuxi, with an increase of 3,200 mt or 5.66%. The inventory in Huzhou rose 3,000 mt or 13.04%. survey showed that most aluminium extruders plan to resume their work from the tenth or the twelfth day of the first lunar month. The overall demand for aluminium billets was sluggish. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -30.03% to settled at 2330 while prices down -6.1 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 250.4 and below same could see a test of 246.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 258.6, a move above could see prices testing 262.9.

Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 246.5-262.9.
Aluminium dropped as easing supply issues and a stronger dollar prompted some profit-taking.
New aluminium arrivals in LME warehouses sent on-warrant stockpiles soaring by 42% to 595,150 tonnes.
Prices rallied to all time high amid shutdowns of smelters in Europe due to the high energy cost and limited production in China.


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.28% at 958.8 as sentiments dropped among the trader with the third wave of corona virus is spreading five times faster. There is an explosive situation of infection in seven states of the country. Due to the rapid spread of Omicron, this curiosity arises in the mind whether there will be a lock down in the country. Overall 2022 Q1 prices are expected to see good support as the Indian pharma industry has shown a double digit growth of around 15% led by growth of Covid-19 products in the last one year as against a single digit growth of 3% shown last year, according to Indian pharmaceutical market research company Pharmasofttech AWACS Pvt. Ltd in its latest report. Also as per the latest news going viral in market is that Mandi Tax has been exempted for exports and the orders have been sent to all Mandi Sectt offices district wise, while trader are waiting for complete information on same. Due to lackluster price move since last 2 year with poor export performance this year's sowing can see much impact resulting surge in prices. Also the FMCG makers also expect that a sudden increase in COVID cases and some restrictions imposed by local authorities in some states would again impact the demand for out of home' channels products, which was recovering from the last few months, though demand for home consumption and immunity products is going to gain for few weeks. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -6 Rupees to end at 1112.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.25% to settled at 951 while prices down -2.7 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 955.3 and below same could see a test of 951.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 963.2, a move above could see prices testing 967.5.
 

Trading Ideas:
Mentha oil trading range for the day is 951.7-967.5.
In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -6 Rupees to end at 1112.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.
Mentha oil prices dropped as sentiments dropped with the third wave of corona virus is spreading faster.
Overall 2022 Q1 prices are expected to see good support as the Indian pharma industry has shown a double digit growth of around 15%.
Due to lackluster price move since last 2 year with poor export performance this year's sowing can see much impact resulting surge in prices.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.61% at 9912 as the arrival of the new crop has started in the markets of Telangana and Maharashtra. In the first 7 months (April-October) of the financial year 2021-22, exports declined by 23% to 89,850 tonnes over the previous year, but higher by 6.5% over the 5-year average. For the past three years, traders were offering lower price for turmeric due to lack of demand. Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones. The farmers, who incurred losses during this period due to low price, are hoping to get good price this year, so that they could clear their dues to some extent. The market sentiment is buoyant mainly since the ending stocks are expected to be 17-18 lakh bags (50 kg each) this year against 25 lakh bags last year. Spices Board data showed turmeric production this year being projected at 11.01 lakh tonnes against 11.78 lakh tonnes last year, mainly on the output being affected in Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Haryana. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 9327.5 Rupees dropped -27.5 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.23% to settled at 11025 while prices down -162 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 9794 and below same could see a test of 9678 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 10062, a move above could see prices testing 10214.
 

Trading Ideas:
Turmeric trading range for the day is 9678-10214.
Turmeric dropped as arrival of the new crop has started in the markets of Telangana and Maharashtra.
Turmeric crop was damaged in Maharashtra, Nizamabad in Telangana and Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh due to rains and cyclones.
In the first 7 months (April-October) of the financial year 2021-22, exports declined by 23% to 89,850 tonnes over the previous year.
In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 9327.5 Rupees dropped -27.5 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.67% at 20860 as export demand will still under pressure due to tariff cost and ahead of arrival despite the news that China export started again. There were reports of decline in sowing area and improving domestic demand. In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as against 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year and production is expected to decline by 41% to 2.37 lakh tonnes as compared to last year's 4 lakh tonnes as per second advance estimates. In Rajasthan too, there has been a decline of about 30% in the area. According to government data, cumin exports declined by 24% year-on-year to 1.74 lakh tonnes in April-December from 2.30 lakh tonnes in the previous year. The export of cumin seeds declined by 20% year-on-year to 1.61 lakh tonnes in April-November, from 2.02 lakh tonnes in the previous year. There is a possibility of damage to the cumin crop due to rain and cloudy sky. The production in Syria had fallen by roughly 25-30 percent in 2021, versus the previous year because of political instability. The cropped area has fallen due to a shift towards other crops like cotton, soybean and mustard, which offered lucrative returns last year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 59.95 Rupees to end at 20041.2 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.03% to settled at 10575 while prices down -140 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 20670 and below same could see a test of 20480 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21075, a move above could see prices testing 21290.
 

Trading Ideas:
Jeera trading range for the day is 20480-21290.
Jeera dropped as export demand will still under pressure due to tariff cost and ahead of arrival despite the news that China export started again.
In 2021-22, the area under cumin in Gujarat is only 3.07 lakh hectares as against 4.69 lakh hectares in the same period last year
In Rajasthan too, there has been a decline of about 30% in the area.
In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 59.95 Rupees to end at 20041.2 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.84% at 38480 as the low cotton yield this season due to excessive rain and pink bollworm attack has resulted in the crop selling at over 60 per cent higher than the minimum support price (MSP). The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised the estimate for U.S. stocks at the end of its 2021/22 crop year and projected a decline in the country's exports in its monthly supply-demand report. In its February World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the USDA raised U.S. ending stocks estimates by 300,000 bales to 3.50 million bales, while U.S. production estimates were unchanged at 17.62 million bales. "The U.S. export forecast is lowered by 250,000 bales to 14.75 million based on lagging shipments due to logistical issues," the USDA said. The agency also lowered its global output estimate by 810,000 bales to 120.15 million bales, bringing the ending stocks forecast to 84.31 million bales from 85.01 million bales last month. Cotton arrivals from October 2021 till 01st February 2022 is reported 36% higher from the same period in last year. An official of the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI), said unseasonal rains in September last year followed by pink bollworm attack had not only hit the yield, but also affected the crop’s quality. In spot market, Cotton gained by 240 Rupees to end at 37630 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.2% to settled at 6134 while prices up 320 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 38110 and below same could see a test of 37730 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 38710, a move above could see prices testing 38930.
 

Trading Ideas:
Cotton trading range for the day is 37730-38930.
Cotton gains the low cotton yield this season due to excessive rain and pink bollworm attack
USDA projected a decline in the country's exports in its monthly supply-demand report.
USDA raised U.S. ending stocks estimates by 300,000 bales to 3.50 million bales, while U.S. production estimates were unchanged at 17.62 million bales.
In spot market, Cotton gained  by 240 Rupees to end at 37630 Rupees.