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Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.48% at 37040 as production of Cotton is estimated at 34.06 million bales (each of 170 kg) is higher by 1.12 million bales than the average cotton production of 32.95 million bales, as per 2nd Advance Estimates for 2021-22. However downside limited amid low cotton yield this season due to excessive rain and pink bollworm attack has resulted in the crop selling at over 60 per cent higher than the minimum support price (MSP). India’s cotton production for the crop year 2021-2022 is estimated at 27million 480- Pound Bales versus USDA’s January estimate of 27.5million 480-pound bales and 2020- 21’s production of 27.6 480-pound bales. India’s ending stocks are estimated at 9.84million 480-pound bales for 2021-22, the lowest level in the 3- Year, versus 13.44 million 480- pound bales in 2020-2021 and 16.18 million 480- pound bales in 2019-20. The Cotton Association of India has reduced its cotton crop estimate for the 2021-22 season by 12.00 lakh bales to 34.8 million bales of 170 kgs from its previous estimate of 36 million bales of 170 kgs. As per USDA February report, the world-ending stock will fall further to 84.31million 480-pound bales, the lowest level in 3-Year, from their January’s forecast of 85.01million 480- pound bales and 2020-21’s Ending Stock of 88.41million 480-pound bales. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -20 Rupees to end at 37000 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by - 0.36% to settled at 7228 while prices down -180 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 36740 and below same could see a test of 36430 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 37450, a move above could see prices testing 37850.

Trading Idea for the day

Cotton trading range for the day is 36430-37850

Cotton dropped as production is estimated at 34.06 mln bales is higher by 1.12 mln bales than the average cotton production of 32.95 mln bales

Domestic cotton production has fallen for a third consecutive year in 2021-22

mestic ending stocks will fall 26.8% in 2021-22 to a 3-Year low

Cocudakl

Cocudakl yesterday settled up by 1.92% at 3126 tracking rise in cotton prices on fears of a shortfall in production and higher demand for export. CAI in its latest report has reduced its cotton production by 5.00 lakh bales to 343.13 lakh bales (1 bale of 170 kg) for 2021-22. Consumption also declined by 5 lakh bales to 340 lakh bales, while export and import figures remain unchanged at 15-45 lakh bales respectively. The government has estimated the production of cotton under the second advance estimate for the year 2021-22 at 340 lakh bales as against 362 lakh bales in the first estimate. The USDA in its monthly report has cut India's cotton production to 27.5 million bales from 28 million bales last month, while the US, the largest exporter, cut cotton production by 3.61% to 17.6 million bales. As per estimate, cotton production in Gujarat is expected to be lower in 2021-22 season because of lesser sown area around 22.53 lakh hectares as compared to 25.53 lakh hectares in the previous season. Support also seen amid expectations of firm demand, particularly from China and tight supplies. An urgency in obtaining the supplies and a buyout of cotton futures by hedge funds also supported the cotton market. In Akola spot market, Cocudakl gained by 31.2 Rupees to end at 3256.2 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -13.63% to settled at while prices up 59 rupees, now Cocudakl is getting support at 3083 and below same could see a test of 3039 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 3152, a move above could see prices testing 3177.

Trading Idea for the day

Cocudakl trading range for the day is 3039-3177.

Cocudakl price rose tracking rise in cotton prices on fears of a shortfall in production and higher demand for export.

CAI in its latest report has reduced its cotton production by 5.00 lakh bales to 343.13 lakh bales for 2021-22.

The USDA in its monthly report has cut India's cotton production to 27.5 million bales from 28 million bales last month

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