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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.3% at 54132 as the dollar gained on stronger-than-expected US producer price data, while investors prepare for US consumer price data and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision this week. The US CPI report on Tuesday will be the last major data before the Fed announces its policy decision on Wednesday. The US central bank is widely expected to deliver a smaller 50 basis point rate hike this week, though the likely peak for rates remain highly uncertain as inflationary pressures stay elevated. Investors also turned cautious as other major central banks including the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank are set to decide on monetary policy this week as well. Gold premiums in China rose as demand picked up after the top consumer eased COVID restrictions, while high prices muted activity in India. Premiums in China rose to $10-$25 an ounce over benchmark spot prices from last week's $2-$12. Dealers offered discounts of up to $20 an ounce over official domestic prices versus last week's $18 discounts. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.47% to settle at 15521 while prices are down -163 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 54030 and below same could see a test of 53929 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 54263, a move above could see prices testing 54395.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 53929-54395.
* Gold fell as the dollar gained on stronger-than-expected US producer price da
* Investors prepare for US consumer price data and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision this week.
* Demand should pick up further into Chinese New Year-trader


Silver
Silver yesterday settled down by -0.37% at 67786 as the dollar strengthened as investors await a slew of central bank meetings this week for additional cues on the pace of rate rises. Official data showed that consumer prices in China were up 1.6 percent year-on-year in November, down from 2.1 percent in October. Producer prices dropped an annual 1.3 percent versus expectations for a decline of 1.4 percent. Signs of low supply also supported prices, as New York’s COMEX inventories fell 70% in the last 18 months to just over 1 million tonnes. Also, the London Bullion Market Association stockpiles fell for the 10th straight month to a record-low 27.1 thousand tonnes in November. The Producer Price Index for final demand in the US rose 0.3% month-over-month in November of 2022, the same as an upwardly revised 0.3% increase in October and above market forecasts of 0.2%. Cost of services went up 0.4%, led by securities brokerage, dealing, investment advice, and related services, which jumped 11.3%. Cost of goods edged up 0.1%, led by 38.1% surge in prices for fresh and dry vegetables. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.14% to settle at 20601 while prices are down -252 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 67400 and below same could see a test of 67015 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 68252, a move above could see prices testing 68719.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 67015-68719.
* Silver dropped as the dollar strengthened as investors await a slew of central bank meetings this week for additional cues on the pace of rate rises.
* The British economy expanded 0.5% in October, the strongest growth in nearly a year and above forecasts of 0.4% as retail sales improved.
* Signs of low supply also supported prices, as New York’s COMEX inventories fell 70% in the last 18 months to just over 1 million tonnes.


Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled up by 3.61% at 6088 amid supply woes stemming from the closure of a key pipeline supplying the United States and Russian threats of a production cut. UBS said it believed Brent should recover to above $100 per barrel in the coming months amid supply constraints and rising demand while OPEC+ would keep supply tight. Saudi Arabia's energy minister also said that price cap measures had had no clear results yet. Libya is producing about 1.2 million barrels per day of oil, oil minister Mohamed Oun told reporters on the sidelines of an OAPEC meeting. "We hope to return to 2010 levels, which was 1.6 million bpd, within two or three years," he added. He added that he hoped that Libya's decision to lift force majeure on oil and gas exploration, which was announced last week, would encourage foreign oil companies to return to the country. Money managers cut their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to December 6, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. The speculator group cut its combined futures and options position in New York and London by 5,429 contracts to 161,455 during the period. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -35.56% to settle at 14967 while prices are up 212 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5906 and below same could see a test of 5725 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6194, a move above could see prices testing 6301.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5725-6301.
* Crude oil rises amid supply woes stemming from the closure of a key pipeline supplying the United States and Russian threats of a production cut.
* UBS said it believed Brent should recover to above $100 per barrel in the coming months amid supply constraints
* Libyan oil production at 1.2 mln barrels per day, oil minister says


Nat.Gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 9.79% at 558.5 driven by forecasts for colder than normal weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks. Data provider Refinitiv forecast 504 heating degree days (HDDs), which are used to estimate demand to heat homes and businesses, over the next two weeks in the Lower 48 U.S. states, compared with a 30-year average of 409 HDDs for the period. With colder weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 123.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 145.8 bcfd next week. EIA reported that US production of dry natural gas, used primarily in homes and businesses for heating, cooking, and electricity, is set to break an annual record of 98.0 Bcf/d in 2022. Frigid temperatures and heavy precipitation on the West Coast have fueled natural gas demand at a time when storage inventories are below average. Meanwhile, the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas, forced to go offline in June following a fire, expects to begin bringing operations back online by year's end, in another delay due to pending regulatory approval. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -35.43% to settle at 4698 while prices are up 49.8 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 530.4 and below same could see a test of 502.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 584, a move above could see prices testing 609.4.
Trading Ideas:
# Natural gas trading range for the day is 502.2-609.4.
# Natural gas jumped driven by forecasts for colder than normal weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks.
# Average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 123.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 145.8 bcfd next week.
# EIA reported that US production of dry natural gas, is set to break an annual record of 98.0 Bcf/d in 2022.


Copper
Copper yesterday settled down by -0.88% at 700.2 as the U.S. dollar firmed and caution prevailed ahead of major central bank meetings that could provide further clues on prospects of global economic growth and metals demand. However, investors expected China's easing of its COVID-19 restrictions would boost global economic growth and metals demand. Investors are bracing for a half-percentage-point rate hike from the Fed this week, a step down from its recent series of three-quarter-point increases. Global miner Anglo American Plc on Friday cut its copper production estimate for 2023 because of deteriorating ore grades at its Chilean mines, and trimmed the higher end of its output target for 2022. Visible copper inventories remain low, with Goldman Sachs predicting a supply deficit in 2023 and prices at $11,000 in a year. China produced 899,600 mt of copper cathode in November, down 0.2% MoM but up 8.9% YoY. The output was 3,700 mt lower than the expectation of 903,300 mt. The output totalled 9.41 million mt from January to November, up 3.37% or 306,500 mt year-on-year. A smelter in east China undertook maintenance ahead of time due to equipment failure and there were six smelters overhauled in November. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.13% to settle at 5069 while prices are down -6.2 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 696.7 and below same could see a test of 693.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 705.6, a move above could see prices testing 710.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 693.1-710.9.
* Copper prices fell as the U.S. dollar firmed and caution prevailed ahead of major central bank meetings
* Investors expected China's easing of its COVID-19 restrictions would boost global economic growth and metals demand.
* Visible copper inventories remain low, with Goldman Sachs predicting a supply deficit in 2023 and prices at $11,000 in a year.


Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.92% at 289.4 as LME zinc inventory has entered a downward track since early September, and continued to fall last week, standing at 39,750 mt, its lowest in more than 32 years. Nyrstar has completed scheduled maintenance work at its Auby operation in Northern France, but the smelter will not resume zinc production due to challenging market conditions. "This period will be used to bring forward future planned investments to improve operational stability and efficiency of the Auby smelter once operations are able to restart." Nyrstar put its zinc smelting operations at Budel in the Netherlands on care and maintenance in September. Metal industry sources say Nyrstar has the capacity to produce 720,000 tonnes of zinc in Europe, with 315,000 of that at Budel. Zinc ingot social inventory across seven markets in China totalled 53,700 mt as of Friday December 9, down 800 mt from this Monday, alluding lingering supply tightness in the spot market. The global zinc market deficit rose to 103,000 tonnes in September from a revised deficit of 90,200 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 101,100 tonnes in August. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 11.16% to settle at 3864 while prices are up 2.65 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 285.1 and below same could see a test of 280.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 292.1, a move above could see prices testing 294.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 280.8-294.8.
* Zinc rose as LME zinc inventory continued to fall last week, standing at 39,750 mt, its lowest in more than 32 years.
* Nyrstar's Auby zinc plant on care and maintenance until further notice
* Global zinc market deficit rises to 103,000 T in September – ILZSG



Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled down by -1.42% at 211.1 as China produced around 3.34 million mt aluminium in November, up 8.7% YoY. The daily output rose 1,055 mt MoM to 111,200 mt. The output totalled 36.64 million mt from January to November, an increase of 3.7% on the year. In November, the aluminium output saw both increase and decrease, but the output increase was more significant as the operating capacity continued to increase amid the production resumption of aluminium plants in Guangxi and Sichuan. 230,000. The aluminium ingot social inventories across China’s eight major markets totalled 500,000 mt as of December 12, flat from last Thursday. The figure was 16,000 mt lower than a month ago and 416,000 mt less than the same period last year. Inventory in Wuxi maintained destocking due to limited arrivals, and may see only slight growth in December as arrivals will remain limited. Inventory in Gongyi and Hangzhou increased slightly. The current inventory is at historical low, but may rise in the future due to growing supply and poor demand. The degree of inventory accumulation will depend on shipments and arrivals. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -8.22% to settle at 5240 while prices are down -3.05 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 209.9 and below same could see a test of 208.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 213, a move above could see prices testing 214.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 208.6-214.8.
* Aluminium dropped as China produced around 3.34 million mt aluminium in November, up 8.7% YoY.
* The output totalled 36.64 million mt from January to November, an increase of 3.7% on the year.
* The aluminium ingot social inventories across China’s eight major markets totalled 500,000 mt

Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.94% at 994.7 on low level buying after prices dropped as mentha exports during Apr-Sept 2022 has dropped by 13.84 percent at 1,107.20 tonnes as compared to 1,285.12 tonnes exported during Apr- Sept 2021. In the month of September 2022 around 220.67 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 238.04 tonnes in August 2022 showing a drop of 7.30%. In the month of September 2022 around 220.67 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 250.97 tonnes in September 2021 showing a drop of 12.07%. Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Support also seen amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 15 Rupees to end at 1137 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -13.14% to settle at 714 while prices are up 9.3 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 985.1 and below same could see a test of 975.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1007, a move above could see prices testing 1019.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 975.6-1019.4.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 15 Rupees to end at 1137 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha gained on low level buying after prices dropped as exports during Apr-Sept 2022 has dropped by 13.84 percent
* In the month of September 2022 around 220.67 tonnes Mentha was exported showing a drop of 7.30%.
* However, Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.


Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.51% at 7932 on low level buying after prices dropped amid lower demand from domestic spice-makers and stockists amid availability of Turmeric supply form Marathwada region. Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years. Agriculture Minister Narendra Singh Tomar said unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, Turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares as compared to last year same period 19,376 hectares, down by 12.67%. Turmeric exports during Apr- Sept 2022 has rose by 14.65 percent at 88,384.27 tonnes as compared to 77,091.52 tonnes exported during Apr- Sept 2021. In the month of September 2022 around 13,990.65 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,147.89 tonnes in August 2022 showing a rise of 15.16%. In the month of September 2022 around 13,990.65 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,598.15 tonnes in September 2021 showing a rise of 11.05%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7300.2 Rupees gained 69.8 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.36% to settle at 6720 while prices are up 40 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7796 and below same could see a test of 7658 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8036, a move above could see prices testing 8138.
Trading Ideas:
# Turmeric trading range for the day is 7658-8138.
# Turmeric gained on low level buying after prices dropped amid lower demand from domestic spice-makers and stockists amid availability of supply.
# As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares, down by 12.67% till date from last year.
# Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years.
# In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7300.2 Rupees gained 69.8 Rupees.


Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled up by 1.79% at 26985 amid higher demand for the fresh crop and supply tightness in the physical market. Good demand expected from China in December-January and Ramzan demand during January-February from gulf & other countries. Jeera sowing around 75% to 80% sowing has been completed in Rajasthan Jeera growing regions, last year till date sowing completed around 85% to 90%. Jeera exports during Apr- Sept 2022 has dropped by 21.28 percent at 1,09,587.28 tonnes as compared to 1,39,218.38 tonnes exported during Apr- Sept 2021. In the month of September 2022 around 18,081.78 tonnes jeera was exported as against 24,448.33 tonnes in August 2022 showing a drop of 26.04%. In the month of September 2022 around 18,081.78 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 14,828.07 tonnes in September 2021 showing a rise of 21.94%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 1085.5 Rupees to end at 26440.95 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 1.73% to settle at 6354 while prices are up 475 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 26780 and below same could see a test of 26575 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 27220, a move above could see prices testing 27455.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 26575-27455.
* Jeera gained amid higher demand for the fresh crop and supply tightness in the physical market.
* Current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions.
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 1085.5 Rupees to end at 26440.95 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton
Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.57% at 31320 as India’s domestic cotton demand for the 2022-23 season up to September is estimated to be lower by about 18 lakh bales (170 kg each) at 300 lakh bales or nearly 6 per cent less than last year’s 318 lakh bales. According to the Punjab Mandi Board data, cotton crop has seen the slowest arrival in the last five years even as the average rate is the highest since 2018. Punjab is expected to have produced 20 lakh quintals against 29 lakh quintals produced in the 2021-22 season. China's agriculture ministry lowered its outlook for cotton consumption, as slowing global economic growth continues to hurt demand for textiles. China's cotton consumption in the 2022/23 crop year that began in September is seen at 7.5 million tonnes, 200,000 tonnes lower than in last month's forecast, the ministry said in its monthly Chinese Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (CASDE) report. The latest US Department of Agriculture cotton projections for 2022/23 indicated a slight increase from 2021/22 for world cotton production and lower global demand estimates for 2022/2023. Production in the US, the world’s largest exporter of cotton, was seen about 1.5% higher, at 14.0 million bales, as a decrease in the Southwest is more than offset by increases elsewhere. In spot market, Cotton gained by 190 Rupees to end at 32130 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.02% to settle at 2203 while prices are down -180 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 31080 and below same could see a test of 30830 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 31700, a move above could see prices testing 32070.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 30830-32070.
* Cotton dropped as India’s domestic cotton demand for the 2022-23 season up to September is estimated to be lower by about 18 lakh bales
* China cuts cotton demand outlook on slowing global growth
*  USDA cotton projections for 2022/23 indicated a slight increase from 2021/22 for world cotton
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 190 Rupees to end at 32130 Rupees.

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