Silver trading range for the day is 71509-72339 - Kedia Advisory
Follow us Now on Telegram ! Get daily 10 - 12 important updates on Business, Finance and Investment. Join our Telegram Channel
Gold
Gold yesterday settled up by 0.4% at 49349 as the U.S. dollar headed for a second month of decline, while growing inflationary pressures also lifted bullion's appeal. The dollar index was headed for its second straight monthly decline versus rivals, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell to 1.593% on Friday, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest bearing gold. Data showed U.S. consumer prices surged in April, with a measure of underlying inflation blowing past the Federal Reserve's 2% target and posting its largest annual gain since 1992. Investors' focus this week will be on U.S. payrolls data on Friday, with median forecasts suggesting they will show an increase of 650,000. Physical gold demand in second-biggest bullion consumer India was negligible with most jewellery stores still shut by COVID-19 lockdowns, forcing dealers to offer steep discounts. Dealers offered discounts of up to $10 an ounce, the highest since mid-September 2020, over official domestic prices, unchanged from last week. A few states are considering easing restrictions from June 1 and that could help attract retail consumers. China's net gold imports via Hong Kong jumped 219% in April from the previous month, Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data showed. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.62% to settled at 12673 while prices up 199 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 49215 and below same could see a test of 49081 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 49461, a move above could see prices testing 49573.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 49081-49573.
* Gold firmed as the U.S. dollar headed for a second month of decline, while growing inflationary pressures also lifted bullion's appeal.
* Data showed U.S. consumer prices surged in April and boosted bullion's appeal as an inflation hedge.
* Investors' focus this week will be on U.S. payrolls data on Friday, with median forecasts suggesting they will show an increase of 650,000.
Silver
Silver yesterday settled up by 0.4% at 71898 as signs of rising inflation in the U.S. boosted the precious metal's appeal as inflation hedge. Inflation worries persist after a key gauge of inflation accelerated in April, well above the U.S. Federal Reserve's 2 percent annual rate target. An inflation reading preferred by the Federal Reserve showed an acceleration in the pace of price growth but not as much as traders had feared. While the increase in prices exceeded economist estimates, the jump was apparently not as severe as to raise concerns about the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy. The Fed has attributed the recent increase in prices to "transitory factors" and has repeatedly hinted that it will not consider tightening until prices exceed 2% for "some time." Data from the Commerce Department showed that U.S. core personal consumption expenditures index, the Federal Reserve's key gauge of inflation, rose more-than-expected in April. Core PCE price index grew 3.1 percent year-on-year in April following a 1.8 percent increase in March. The rate was forecast to rise to 2.9 percent. Key economic data due this week include ISM manufacturing index on Tuesday and ADP private sector employment, initial jobless claims data and ISM services PMI on Wednesday. Friday features all important nonfarm payrolls data. U.S President Joe Biden unveiled $6 trillion budget for next year, which proposes spending on infrastructure, education and other initiatives. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.16% to settled at 10562 while prices up 287 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 71704 and below same could see a test of 71509 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 72119, a move above could see prices testing 72339.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 71509-72339.
* Silver remained supported as signs of rising inflation in the U.S. boosted the precious metal's appeal as inflation hedge.
* Inflation worries persist after a key gauge of inflation accelerated in April, well above the U.S. Federal Reserve's 2 percent annual rate target.
* Data from the Commerce Department showed that U.S. core personal consumption expenditures index, rose more-than-expected in April.
Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.31% at 4870 buoyed by expectations for strong demand growth in the next quarter, despite the possible return of Iranian crude and condensate exports. OPEC+ is likely to stick to the existing pace of gradually easing oil supply curbs at a meeting, OPEC sources said, as producers balance expectations of a recovery in demand against a possible increase in Iranian supply. OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said he did not expect higher Iranian supply to cause problems. The United States imported a rare cargo of 1.033 million barrels of Iranian crude in March despite sanctions on Iran's energy sector, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed. The cargo is only the second oil import by the United States from Iran since late 1991, data on EIA's website showed. Japan's crude oil imports fell 3.9 percent in April from a year earlier to 2.65 million barrels per day (12.65 million kilolitres), the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) said. Japan's domestic oil product sales last month rose 5.5 percent from a year earlier to 2.54 million barrels per day (bpd), the data showed. Gasoline sales rose 17.2 percent to 778,248 bpd, while kerosene sales down 31.7 percent from a year earlier to 170,068 bpd, the data showed. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.23% to settled at 7388 while prices up 15 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4840 and below same could see a test of 4809 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4902, a move above could see prices testing 4933.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4809-4933.
* Crude oil prices climbed buoyed by expectations for strong demand growth in the next quarter
* OPEC+ is likely to stick to the existing pace of gradually easing oil supply curbs at a meeting, OPEC sources said
* OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said he did not expect higher Iranian supply to cause problems.
Nat.Gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 1.84% at 221.8 buoyed by forecasts for warmer weather in two weeks and a projected increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. Higher temperatures in two weeks were expected to boost demand for fuel to power generators and keep air conditioners humming. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has averaged 91 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in May, up from 90.6 bcfd in April. That, however, was still well below November 2019's monthly record of 95.4 bcfd. With warmer weather coming after the U.S. Memorial Day holiday week, Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would rise from 83.6 bcfd this week to 84.1 bcfd next week with a projected increase in LNG exports and 90.1 bcfd in two weeks as warmer weather boosts air conditioning use. The forecast for next week was slightly higher than Refinitiv predicted. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has averaged 10.8 bcfd so far in May, down from April's monthly record of 11.5 bcfd. Data released by Baker Hughes showed, the total active U.S. rig count, including those drilling for natural gas, climbed by 2 to 457. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 33% to settled at 15694 while prices up 4 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 219.9 and below same could see a test of 218 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 223, a move above could see prices testing 224.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 218-224.2.
* Natural gas rose buoyed by forecasts for warmer weather in two weeks and a projected increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.
* Higher temperatures in two weeks were expected to boost demand for fuel to power generators and keep air conditioners humming.
* Data released by Baker Hughes showed, the total active U.S. rig count, including those drilling for natural gas, climbed by 2 to 457.
Copper
Copper yesterday settled up by 0.31% at 768.85 as traders expect supply threat in Chile and massive U.S. spending plans on infrastructure to fuel shortages. A strike by a union of remote operations workers at BHP's Escondida and Spence copper mines in Chile entered its second day, as the company uses replacement workers to ensure continued production, a union leader told. The 200-member union runs BHP's Integrated Operations Center, which remotely manages pits and cathode and concentrator plants from Santiago. Chile's manufacturing output ticked up 5.9% year-on-year in April, government statistics agency INE said, while copper output dipped 1.5%, to 467,594 tonnes. The White House proposed a $6 trillion budget plan to ramp up spending on several sectors including infrastructure that raised concerns of shortage in global metals. Democratic Republic of Congo has authorised exports of copper and cobalt concentrate for mining companies that hold waivers, customs documents showed, after the country appeared to issue a blanket ban on them. Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 6% from a week earlier, the exchange said. China's banking regulator has asked lenders to stop selling investment products linked to commodities futures to mom-and-pop buyers to curb investment losses amid volatile commodity prices. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.5% to settled at 3719 while prices up 2.35 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 764.2 and below same could see a test of 759.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 773.8, a move above could see prices testing 778.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 759.3-778.5.
* Copper prices rose as traders expect supply threat in Chile and massive U.S. spending plans on infrastructure to fuel shortages.
* Strike at BHP's Chile copper mine continues, union opposes substitute workers
* Chile's copper output dipped 1.5%, to 467,594 tonnes.
Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.21% at 237.35 after the China’s factory activity slowed slightly in May. However downside seen limited amid the strong Eurozone CCI and Chicago PMI in May. US infrastructure plan boosted the confidence of the bulls. Zinc smelting in Yunnan is suppressed by the power rationing policy, and the social inventories kept falling, which boosted the bulls’ confidence. Data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots across Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Hebei decreased 1,100 mt from last Friday May 28 to 154,400 mt as of Monday May 31. The stocks were down 7,100 mt from May 24. Zinc treatment charges (TCs) in China jumped to their highest level in more than five months as power shortages in the Yunnan province left smelters facing production cuts, weakening demand for raw material zinc concentrate. Spot TCs, paid by miners to smelters to process imported concentrate into refined zinc in top consumer China, were last assessed by Asian Metal at $95 a tonne, up 35.7% from the previous day and the highest since Dec. 4. China's industrial profits logged a sharp increase in January to April period, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics revealed. Industrial profits increased by 106 percent in January to April period from the same period last year. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.57% to settled at 2189 while prices down -0.5 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 236.3 and below same could see a test of 235.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 238.9, a move above could see prices testing 240.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 235.1-240.3.
* Zinc pared gains after the China’s factory activity slowed slightly in May.
* However downside seen limited amid the strong Eurozone CCI and Chicago PMI in May.
* Zinc smelting in Yunnan is suppressed by the power rationing policy, and the social inventories kept falling, which boosted the bulls’ confidence.
Nickel
Nickel yesterday settled up by 0.49% at 1328.4 as support continues after White House released a $6 trillion budget proposal for infrastructure construction. Support also seen amid the rigid production demand by stainless steel and new energy industries. Despite the imported inflation, the domestic commodity prices should gradually stabilise under government’s resolute curb. The manufacturing sector in China continued to expand in May, albeit at a slower pace, the latest survey from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday with a manufacturing PMI score of 51.0. That was shy of expectations for 51.1, which would have been unchanged from the April reading. It does, however, remain well above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction. China's industrial profits logged a sharp increase in January to April period, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics revealed. Industrial profits increased by 106 percent in January to April period from the same period last year. In April, industrial profits were up 57 percent annually. U.S. Senate Republicans are expected to unveil a new offer that would spend about $1 trillion on roads, bridges and broadband systems. The global nickel market deficit widened to 16,100 tonnes in March from a small deficit of 600 tonnes in the previous month, data from the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) showed. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.11% to settled at 1826 while prices up 6.5 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1314.9 and below same could see a test of 1301.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1345.2, a move above could see prices testing 1361.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1301.3-1361.9.
* Nickel prices gained as support continues after White House released a $6 trillion budget proposal for infrastructure construction.
* Support also seen amid the rigid production demand by stainless steel and new energy industries.
*Despite the imported inflation, the domestic commodity prices should gradually stabilise under government’s resolute curb.
Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.13% at 196.65 as supply declined due to the restrictions on energy and power consumption, while downstream consumption rebounded. The stocks of aluminium ingots decreased. The aluminium consumption in Guangdong is expected to weaken this week amid the power rationing and COVID-19 pandemic. The US economy continued to recover, employment data improved, and the market tightened the liquidity of the Fed. Domestic high-level officials have repeatedly stressed that bulk commodities do not have the basis for sustained rise, and have conducted research on many varieties. Social inventories of aluminium kept falling, and some production capacity of aluminium enterprises in Yunnan was limited due to power shortage. There was a situation of limited production of aluminium in Guangxi, with no hope of increment on the supply side. A report released by the National Association of Realtors showed pending home sales in the U.S. unexpectedly tumbled to their lowest level in nearly a year in the month of April. Social inventories of primary aluminium across eight consumption areas in China, including SHFE warrants, declined 58,000 mt from the prior week to 962,000 mt as of May 27. The recent high season mainly contributed to the decline in inventories. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.44% to settled at 2153 while prices up 0.25 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 195.4 and below same could see a test of 194 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 198, a move above could see prices testing 199.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 194-199.2.
* Aluminium gains as supply declined due to the restrictions on energy and power consumption, while downstream consumption rebounded.
* The aluminium consumption in Guangdong is expected to weaken this week amid the power rationing and COVID-19 pandemic.
* Social inventories of primary aluminium across eight consumption areas in China, including SHFE warrants, declined 58,000 mt
Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.48% at 918.7 as prices continues its weak trend as fresh season arrival started while the lock-down extension is impacting sentiments. As of now, daily arrival of fresh oil is relatively small (10-15 drums across Uttar Pradesh). Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days. Overall post-lock-down demand will be likely to improve as demand from the health industry will likely continue also as per CIMAP (Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants) Herbal products may boost immunity to avoid infection and demand for same has improved significantly since last year. Mentha exhibits important biological activities. For that reason, it has been used through the years as a remedy for respiratory diseases like bronchitis, sinusitis, tuberculosis, and the common cold. Due to favourable wheather condition,the production of mentha in the states has improved and is at much better terms compare to last year. Mentha has high demand in the production of cosmetics and confectionery goods but as it is not considered as necessity in present scenerio it is not much in demand. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -20.3 Rupees to end at 1058.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 22.86% to settled at 43 while prices down -4.4 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 912.4 and below same could see a test of 906.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 922.9, a move above could see prices testing 927.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 906.2-927.2.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -20.3 Rupees to end at 1058.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices continues its weak trend as fresh season arrival started while the lock-down extension is impacting sentiments.
* As of now, daily arrival of fresh oil is relatively small (10-15 drums across Uttar Pradesh).
* Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days.
Soyabean
Soyabean yesterday settled down by -2.11% at 6873 continuing its recent weak trend due to high production prospects. Pressure also seen tracking weakness in overseas prices because of recent rains in the US. Midwest farms are likely to have a better soybean crop. According to the third advance estimate, the total production of oilseeds in the country during 2020-21 is estimated to be a record 36.57 million tonnes which is 3.35 million tonnes more than the production of 33.22 million tonnes during 2019-20. In addition, the production of oilseeds during 2020-21 is 6.02 million tonnes more than the average oilseeds production of five years. The Russian government has reduced the country's export tax on soybeans to 20% from 30% starting from July 1, TASS news agency reported, citing the government. USDA report showed Soybean production in the world is likely to increase by 6% to 386 million tonnes in next season (September- 2021- August 2020) in expectation of higher crop size in US and India. Total crop size in India may stand higher by 750,000 tonnes to 11.2 Million tonnes against 10.45 Million tonnes in this season. Higher soybean prices in this season will encourage farmers in India to cover higher soybean area. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped -126 Rupees to 7227 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.78% to settled at 45245 while prices down -148 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 6816 and below same could see a test of 6758 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6966, a move above could see prices testing 7058.
Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 6758-7058.
* Soyabean dropped continuing its recent weak trend due to high production prospects.
* Pressure also seen tracking weakness in overseas prices because of recent rains in the US. Midwest farms are likely to have a better soybean crop.
* Russia to reduce export tax on soybeans from July 1
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped -126 Rupees to 7227 Rupees per 100 kgs.
Ref.Soyaoil
Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -0.73% at 1365.6 as higher soybean output could limit edible oil imports. Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth in 2021 as record high prices for the oilseed could prompt some to switch from cultivating competing commodities such as cotton and pulses, industry officials said. Increased production of India's main summer-sown oilseed could help the world's biggest vegetable oil importer trim costly purchases of palm oil, soyoil and sunflower oil from Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina and Ukraine. Global oilseed production is forecast to grow 5 percent in 2021/22, primarily on growth in soybean output in the United States and South America. Global oilseed production is projected to reach 632 million tons on record plantings. Soybean production is forecast to rise 23 million tons to 386 million, a 6-percent increase. Production of all oilseeds is forecast to increase, with all but cottonseed and rapeseed reaching at least 10-year records. Edible Oil industry cautioned the government against resorting to any knee-jerk reaction of lowering import duties to cool down domestic prices, saying it could have a 'very negative’ impact on oilseed farmers, kharif planting for which will start in the coming few weeks. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1397.55 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.49% to settled at 30325 while prices down -10.1 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1359 and below same could see a test of 1351 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1376, a move above could see prices testing 1385.
Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1351-1385.
* Ref soyoil dropped as higher soybean output could limit edible oil imports.
* Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth in 2021
* Edible Oil industry cautioned the government against resorting to any knee-jerk reaction of lowering import duties to cool down domestic prices
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1397.55 Rupees per 10 kgs.
Crude palm Oil
Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -0.33% at 1122.7 as the world's second largest producer of the edible oil prepared for a two-week nationwide lockdown due to a spike in new coronavirus infections. Malaysia will commence a two-week nationwide lockdown starting Tuesday that will see the closure of non-essential businesses and services to control the pandemic. Palm oil plantations will be allowed to operate while manufacturing sector are allowed to operate with reduced capacity. China has approved trading of crude oil and palm oil options on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and the Dalian Commodity Exchange respectively, its securities regulator said, adding to a range of products open to foreign participants for trading. Market expects an increase in production and hit by demand and lockdown concerns in Malaysia. There are also concerns of stricter movement restrictions in Malaysia, which could implode consumption from the domestic hospitality, restaurants and catering sectors. Malaysia has kept its May export tax for crude palm oil at 8% but raised the reference price, a circular on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board website showed. The world's second-largest palm exporter calculated a reference price of 4,533.40 ringgit per tonne for May, up from 4,331.48 ringgit a tonne in April. In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -12.1 Rupees to end at 1171.3 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.37% to settled at 6378 while prices down -3.7 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1113.9 and below same could see a test of 1105 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1130.8, a move above could see prices testing 1138.8.
Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 1105-1138.8.
* Crude palm oil dropped as the world's second largest producer of the edible oil prepared for a two-week nationwide lockdown due to a spike in new coronavirus infections
* Palm oil plantations will be allowed to operate while manufacturing sector are allowed to operate with reduced capacity.
* Market expects an increase in production and hit by demand and lockdown concerns in Malaysia.
* In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -12.1 Rupees to end at 1171.3 Rupees.
Mustard Seed
Mustard Seed yesterday settled down by -0.28% at 6998 tracking weakness in overseas prices after the rumors of reduction in import duty was proved. However the decision to ban the adulteration of mustard oil from June 8, the demand for soybean degum and palmolein has weakened. Due to this, the prices of these imported oils are also very soft. The ban on adulteration of edible oils would be beneficial for both domestic consumers and producers. While oil without adulteration will be available, its production will increase in the country. According to sources, the arrival of mustard in the mandis has decreased at all places in the country. The daily arrival of mustard was 15-20 thousand bags in Najafgarh Mandi, Delhi. It was reduced from 500 to 600 bags. U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield. Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area. European Union rapeseed production is projected to show a modest gain in 2021/22 on increased planted area and improved yield but will remain below the levels observed from 2016 to 2018. India mustard output this year is projected at 104.27 lakh tonnes. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 105 Rupees to end at 7325 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.1% to settled at 45290 while prices down -20 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 6959 and below same could see a test of 6919 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7042, a move above could see prices testing 7085.
Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 6919-7085.
* Mustard seed prices remained under pressure tracking weakness in overseas prices after the rumors of reduction in import duty was proved.
* However the decision to ban the adulteration of mustard oil from June 8, the demand for soybean degum and palmolein has weakened.
* U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield.
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 105 Rupees to end at 7325 Rupees per 100 kg.
Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled down by -2.08% at 7798 as the curbs and lockdowns announced to control the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic affected trading. However downside seen limited on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. In Nizamabad APMC in Telangana, the modal price of the finger variety turmeric was quoted at ₹6,950 a quintal. Prices are up about ₹400 since the beginning of this month. At Bangalore in Karnataka, turmeric is quoted at ₹11,500 at the APMC yard with most markets closed in the State to control the Covid-19 pandemic. In Tamil Nadu, too, the agricultural markets are closed as part of the lockdown to tackle the pandemic. Demand for exports to Bangladesh and Europe are helping turmeric prices to gain. Exporters are looking to pick up stocks from Nanded in view of its quality. Turmeric has been in demand over the last two years as it is reported to be effective in medical use, particularly in combating Covid-19. According to Spices Board data, turmeric exports during the April-December period of the last fiscal increased 34 per cent to 1.39 lakh tonnes valued at ₹1,251 crore compared with 1.03 lakh tonnes valued at ₹1,047 crore. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7602.95 Rupees dropped -123.7 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.86% to settled at 8675 while prices down -166 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7704 and below same could see a test of 7612 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7954, a move above could see prices testing 8112.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7612-8112.
* Turmeric prices dropped as the curbs and lockdowns announced to control the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic affected trading.
* However downside seen limited on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh.
* At least 50 per cent of the crop cultivated in the Maharashtra growing regions are estimated to have arrived at the terminal agricultural markets.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7602.95 Rupees dropped -123.7 Rupees.
Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.51% at 13765 as lockdown restrictions increased against rising Covid cases, slowing spot trade interest weakened market sentiments and pushed prices lower. The wholesale offers for the NCDEX grade Jeera are currently offered around Rs.14000/qtl in Unjha and in Jodhpur, the mandi offers average near Rs.13900/qtl. Over a month, the wholesale prices in Unjha and Jodhpur have gone down by Rs.400/qtl and Rs.700/qtl respectively. As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued. The importers prefer to wait for the situation to normalize before negotiating for fresh deals. They rather prefer to clear their older stocks first and presently they feel that the older inventory may be sufficient to balance the existing demand for next few weeks easily. The new season arrivals shall continue with good numbers hence there will be ample availability in the market. However from a broader perspective, India’s exports outlook has brightened while crop is expected to be lower versus year on year. Also, the nearest export competitors i.e. Turkey and Syria may not supply much to the world due to lower exportable surplus. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 5 Rupees to end at 13980 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.85% to settled at 5529 while prices down -70 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13725 and below same could see a test of 13685 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13820, a move above could see prices testing 13875.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 13685-13875.
* Jeera prices dropped as lockdown restrictions increased against rising Covid cases
* As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued.
* The importers prefer to wait for the situation to normalize before negotiating for fresh deals.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 5 Rupees to end at 13980 Rupees per 100 kg.
Cotton
Cotton yesterday settled up by 1.64% at 23590 due to the further possibility of higher exports. Support also seen as the daily arrivals have stopped, as farmers and stockists have less stock. Meanwhile, mill owners and exporters are hoping to restore their supplies for the next two-three months, while the new crop is more than three months away. According to the Third Advance Estimate released by the government, cotton production is estimated at 36.49 million bales higher by 4.59 million bales than the average cotton production. In the previous season 2019-20 cotton production was estimated at 36.07 million bales. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) weekly export sales report showed net sales of 171,200 Running Bales for the 2020/2021 marking year, 59% higher than the prior week. CAI has revised higher Indian cotton export estimates for 2020-21 season at 65 lakh bales against 60 lakh bales projected till last month. Cotton production in Haryana is expected to decline by 27 percent to 1.8 million bales in 2020-21 (July-June) season due to yield loss. The country’s cotton exports are likely to be 20 percent higher at 1.02 million tonnes in 2020-21 (October-September) backed by competitive pricing in the global markets and an improvement in international cotton consumption, said Care Rating. In spot market, Cotton gained by 220 Rupees to end at 23240 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.9% to settled at 7385 while prices up 380 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 23360 and below same could see a test of 23120 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 23730, a move above could see prices testing 23860.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 23120-23860.
* Cotton prices gained due to the further possibility of higher exports.
* Cotton production is estimated at 36.49 million bales for the season 2020-21.
* USDA sales report showed net sales of 171,200 Running Bales for the 2020/2021 marking year, 59% higher than the prior week.
* In spot market, Cotton gained by 220 Rupees to end at 23240 Rupees.
Chana
Chana yesterday settled up by 0.61% at 5299 after update that India’s supply of Kabuli chickpea is expected to plunge 32 percent to 396,000 tonnes due to low carryout and very poor production prospects for all of India’s rabi (winter) season crops. Exports will fall to an estimated 50,000 tonnes, down from 115,000 tonnes each of the previous two years. The situation is so dire that India is expected to import 50,000 tonnes from Canada, Argentina and Turkey. Even with that injection of supplies, India will end the year with 36,000 tonnes of kabulis, which is a far cry from the 200,000 tonnes it needs to balance supply and demand the following year. According to the latest forecast of the Ministry of Agriculture of India, the forecast for lentils production estimate has been decreased from 13.50 to 12.60 lakh MT. Govt increased Bengal Gram production by 10 lakh MT to 126.1 lakh MT. For tur, it is 41.40 lakh MT, Urad at23.70 lakh MT, Masur at 12.60 lakh MT, Masur production estimate has been decreased from 13.50 to 12.60 lakh MT. Trades are of the view that Bengal Gram production estimate is very optimistic. In Delhi spot market, chana gained by 66.55 Rupees to end at 5312.9 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.85% to settled at 94390 while prices up 32 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5269 and below same could see a test of 5240 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5332, a move above could see prices testing 5366.
Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 5240-5366.
* Chana prices seen supported after update that India’s supply of Kabuli chickpea is expected to plunge 32 percent to 396,000 tonnes.
* Even with that injection of supplies, India will end the year with 36,000 tonnes of kabulis, which is a far cry from the 200,000 tonnes it needs
* Govt. raised Bengal Gram production estimate by 10 lakh mt to 12.61 lakh mt for 2020-21
* In Delhi spot market, chana gained by 66.55 Rupees to end at 5312.9 Rupees per 100 kgs.
Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views. Click Here For Disclaimer
