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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.29% at 44750 as rising US bond yields and a stronger dollar eroded the metal's appeal. At the same time, hopes of a global economic recovery have been supported by the US $1.9 trillion stimulus bill and the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines. President Joe Biden signed his $1.9 trillion stimulus bill into law and said he was working to speed COVID-19 vaccinations and move the country closer to normality by July 4. U.S. producer prices increased strongly in February, leading to the largest annual gain in nearly 2-1/2 years, but considerable slack in the labor market could make it harder for businesses to pass on the higher costs to consumers. The producer price index for final demand rose 0.5% last month, the Labor Department said. In the 12 months through February, the PPI surged 2.8%, the most since October 2018. The PPI increased 1.7% year-on-year in January. Last month's increase in the PPI was in line with expectations. Manufacturing and services industries have been flagging higher production costs as the year-long COVID-19 pandemic gums up the supply chain. Surveys this month showed measures of prices paid by manufacturers and services industries in February racing to levels last seen in 2008. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.47% to settled at 10163 while prices down -129 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 44419 and below same could see a test of 44088 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 44933, a move above could see prices testing 45116.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Gold trading range for the day is 44088-45116.

* Gold prices dropped as rising US bond yields and a stronger dollar eroded the metal's appeal.

* Further hopes of a global economic recovery have been supported by the US $1.9 trillion stimulus bill and the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines.

* U.S. producer prices increased strongly in February, leading to the largest annual gain in nearly 2-1/2 years

Silver      

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.04% at 66844 after a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index, clouding optimism the U.S. stimulus bill would send prices up. At the same time, investors hoped for a strong economic recovery as US President Biden signed a historic $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package into law and as COVID-19 vaccine rollouts gained steam around the globe. U.S. bond yields firmed up, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yields hitting 1.6 percent once again after President Joe Biden's signing of a Coivd-19 relief package into law. Biden signed the $1.9 trillion stimulus package, marking a major legislative victory since assuming office in January. The plan provides direct payments of up to $1,400, extends $300 per week jobless benefits and grant funds for vaccine distribution. In his signing ceremony, Biden pledged aggressive action to speed vaccinations and move the country closer to normality by July 4. On the U.S. economic front, the Labor Department released a report showing first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits fell to a four-month low in the week ended March 6th. The Labor Department said initial jobless claims dropped to 712,000, a decrease of 42,000 from the previous week's revised level of 754,000. With the bigger than expected decrease, jobless claims fell to their lowest level since hitting 711,000 in the week ended November 7th. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.68% to settled at 12055 while prices down -701 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 66099 and below same could see a test of 65353 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 67425, a move above could see prices testing 68005.          

Trading Ideas:            

* Silver trading range for the day is 65353-68005.

* Silver fell after a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index, clouding optimism the U.S. stimulus bill would send prices up.

* Further investors hoped for a strong economic recovery as US President Biden signed a historic $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package

* Labor Department released a report showing first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits fell to a four-month low

Crude oil      

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.02% at 4797 as production cuts by major oil producers constrained supply, with optimism about a recovery in demand for the resource in the second half of the year also lending support. OPEC said a recovery in oil demand will be focused on the second half of the year as the impact of the pandemic lingers as a headwind for the group and its allies in supporting the market. In a monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said demand will rise by 5.89 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2021, or 6.5%, up slightly from last month. But the group cut its forecasts for the first half. Global refineries will increase crude processing sharply over the next six months to stabilise stocks of fuels such as gasoline and diesel - even if substantial coronavirus controls remain on travel and service sector businesses. The prospective rise in processing and consequent draw down in crude inventories in the second and especially third quarters is what has been boosting futures prices and causing calendar spreads to tighten. India's fuel consumption fell for the second month in a row in February to its lowest since September last year as record-high retail prices continued to stonewall a demand recovery for the world's third-biggest oil importer and consumer. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.29% to settled at 3770 while prices up 1 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4767 and below same could see a test of 4736 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4827, a move above could see prices testing 4856.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4736-4856.

* Crude oil prices steadied as production cuts by major oil producers constrained supply

* OPEC expects most of 2021 oil demand recovery in second half

* OPEC said demand will rise by 5.89 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2021, or 6.5%, up slightly from last month.

Nat.Gas      

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -1.7% at 190.5 after forecasts called for milder weather and lower demand through late March than previously expected. U.S. natural gas production will edge up in 2021, while demand declines for a second year in a row as economic fallout from coronavirus lockdowns continue to plague the market, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The EIA projected dry gas production will rise to 91.35 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2021 and 92.83 bcfd in 2022 from 91.34 bcfd in 2020. That compares with an all-time high of 93.06 bcfd in 2019. It also projected gas consumption would fall to 82.52 bcfd in 2021 and 81.60 bcfd in 2022 from 83.25 bcfd in 2020. That compares with a record high of 85.15 bcfd in 2019. If the outlook is correct, 2021 would mark the first time consumption falls for two consecutive years since 2006, and 2022 would be the first time it falls for three years since 1983. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 91.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up sharply from a 28-month low of 86.5 bcfd in February when extreme weather froze gas wells and pipes in Texas. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.06% to settled at 9263 while prices down -3.3 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 187.8 and below same could see a test of 185.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 194.7, a move above could see prices testing 198.9.        

Trading Ideas:            

*  Natural gas trading range for the day is 185.1-198.9.

* Natural gas fell after forecasts called for milder weather and lower demand through late March than previously expected

*  U.S. natural gas production will edge up in 2021, while demand declines for a second year in a row

*  The EIA projected dry gas production will rise to 91.35 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2021 and 92.83 bcfd in 2022

Copper   

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.67% at 679.5 as signs of weakening demand and higher supply pressured a stunning rally. Yangshan copper premium fell to $68 a tonne, its lowest since Jan. 15, indicating weaker demand from top consumer China, while inventories have been rising in both LME and ShFE warehouses. The premium of LME cash copper over the three-month contract fell to $11.50 a tonne, its lowest since Feb. 11, suggesting that the nearby supply tightness has eased. Meanwhile, China's major copper smelters raised cathode output by 3.3% month on month in February to 745,100 tonnes. Glencore-controlled Antapaccay copper mine, accounting for 8.8% of Peru's 2020 copper output, announced the suspension of operations due to a road blockade by local communities. Boosting confidence in Chinese demand was official data showing that new bank lending in China fell less than expected in February. Chinese auto sales also surged 365% year-on-year in February for their 11th month of gains. The U.S. House of Representatives gave final approval on Wednesday to one of the largest economic stimulus measures in American history. China's factory gate prices rose at the fastest pace since November 2018 in February, official data showed, underscoring expectations for robust growth in 2021 as the world's second-largest economy gathers momentum. The producer price index (PPI) rose 1.7% from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.93% to settled at 3024 while prices down -4.6 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 674.4 and below same could see a test of 669.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 682.8, a move above could see prices testing 685.9. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Copper trading range for the day is 669.1-685.9.

* Copper prices fell as signs of weakening demand and higher supply pressured a stunning rally.

* Yangshan copper premium fell to $68 a tonne, its lowest since Jan. 15, indicating weaker demand from top consumer China

* Glencore-controlled Antapaccay copper mine, announced the suspension of operations due to a road blockade by local communities.

Zinc       

Zinc yesterday settled down by -1.24% at 215.1 as data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots across Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Hebei increased 4,400 mt in the week ended March 12 to 263,300 mt. The stocks rose 2,300 mt from Monday March 8. The recovery of production after environmental protection and limited production in northern galvanised enterprises will be monitored in the near term. Stocks in Shanghai increased sharply due to continuous arrivals at smelters and the inflow of import zinc. In south China's Guangdong, the stable downstream restocking demand with continuous arrivals at smelters led to the slight increase in stocks. The European Central Bank kept its benchmark interest rate and quantitative easing policy unchanged, and promised to accelerate bond purchases in the next few months to curb the rise in bond yields. The central bank’s monthly bond purchases are expected to be between 60 billion and 100 billion euros. The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits for the first time last week hit its lowest level since November 2019 thanks to accelerated vaccine rollout. In January, the number of job vacancies increased to a nearly one-year high. President Joe Biden signed a $1.9 trillion relief package. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.38% to settled at 1804 while prices down -2.7 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 213.1 and below same could see a test of 211.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 217.7, a move above could see prices testing 220.3.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Zinc trading range for the day is 211.1-220.3.

* Zinc prices dropped as Zinc social inventories expanded 4,400 mt on week

* The recovery of production after environmental protection and limited production in northern galvanised enterprises will be monitored

* Stocks in Shanghai increased sharply due to continuous arrivals at smelters and the inflow of import zinc.

Nickel 

Nickel yesterday settled down by -2.17% at 1155.7 as China's refined nickel output in February rose 5.3% m/m and 3.7% y/y to 13,673 tonnes, with Yantai Cash's decision to make nickel sulphate for batteries leaving only two smelters producing metal. Output of stainless steel raw material nickel pig iron (NPI) fell 3.3% m/m and 3.9% y/y to 38,000 tonnes on a nickel content basis. Inventories of refined nickel in the Shanghai bonded areas decreased 1,800 mt from a week ago and stood at 14,900 mt as of March 5, showed data. Nickel stocks fell for the second consecutive week. After nickel prices dropped sharply last week, the spot market recovered, while Russian nickel spots were tight, leading to higher premium. The import window continued to open this week, and traders moved nickel plates from the bonded area to domestic market after customs clearance, leading to the sharp decline in stocks. Nickel ore inventories across all Chinese ports decreased 538,000 wmt from March 5 to 6.56 million wmt as of March 12, showed data. In Ni content, the stocks fell 4,300 mt to 51,700 mt. Data also showed that nickel ore stocks across seven major Chinese ports decreased 458,000 wmt during the same period to 5.39 million wmt. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 13.34% to settled at 2099 while prices down -25.6 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1147.4 and below same could see a test of 1139.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1169.4, a move above could see prices testing 1183.1.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1139.1-1183.1.

* Nickel prices dropped as China's refined nickel output in February rose 5.3% m/m and 3.7% y/y to 13,673 tonnes

* Shanghai bonded refined nickel stocks fell 1,800 mt on week

* Nickel ore inventories at Chinese ports fell 538,000 wmt to 6.56 million wmt

Aluminium      

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -1.24% at 170.75 as pressure seen after Primary aluminium ingot inventories in China posted slower increase, showed data. Social inventories of primary aluminium ingots across eight consumption areas in China, including SHFE warrants, increased 55,000 mt from last Thursday to 1.23 million mt as of March 11. Recently, TCs for aluminium billet rebounded slightly, and the holders were more willing to deliver goods. Inventories of aluminium billet in China fell for the first time after the CNY. Data showed that aluminium billet stocks across the five major consumption areas — Foshan, Wuxi, Huzhou, Changzhou and Nanchang — in China decreased 9,500 mt from a week ago to 236,800 mt as of Thursday March 11. U.S. consumer sentiment improved in early March to its strongest in a year as COVID-19 cases declined and the pace of vaccinations accelerated, a survey showed. The University of Michigan said its preliminary consumer sentiment index rose to 83.0 in the first half of this month from a final reading of 76.8 in February. U.S. producer prices increased strongly in February, leading to the largest annual gain in nearly 2-1/2 years, but considerable slack in the labor market could make it harder for businesses to pass on the higher costs to consumers. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 13.99% to settled at 1051 while prices down -2.15 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 169.8 and below same could see a test of 168.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 172.2, a move above could see prices testing 173.5.    

Trading Ideas:            

*  Aluminium trading range for the day is 168.7-173.5.

*  Aluminium prices dropped as pressure seen after Primary aluminium ingot inventories in China posted slower increase

* Social inventories of primary aluminium ingots across eight consumption areas in China, including SHFE warrants, increased 55,000 mt

* U.S. consumer sentiment improved in early March to its strongest in a year as COVID-19 cases declined and the pace of vaccinations accelerated

Mentha oil      

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.18% at 958.3 amid weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. Support also seen on the expectation that India’s fragrance industry which had been slow, now slowly gaining the positive momentum post the COVID unlock down. Headed towards a new decade, the fragrance industry has received a much needed boost with the acceptance of trendy dhoop sticks and dhoop cones which has seen an increased 20% demand day by day. The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030. Growing demand for aroma chemicals in the food & beverage and fragrance industry will underpin the growth of the market. Strict regulations in relation to artificial flavours are complimenting to the expansion of natural aroma chemicals in the food sector. Out of India's total mentha oil exports, nearly 55% goes to China while 16% goes to the US and around 5% goes to Singapore. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1080.9 Rupees per 360 kgs. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -16.67% to settled at 45 while prices down -1.7 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 951.4 and below same could see a test of 944.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 964.2, a move above could see prices testing 970.      

Trading Ideas:            

*  Mentha oil trading range for the day is 944.4-970.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1080.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.

*  Mentha oil dropped amid weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India.

* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.

* The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030.

Soyabean      

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 0.59% at 5280 tracking rise in overseas prices as concerns about crops in South America stoked worries over global supplies. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange lowered its estimates of Argentina's soybean harvest to 44 million tonnes, below its previous forecasts of46 million tonnes for each crop, citing dry conditions. In a monthly supply-demand report, the USDA raised its estimate of Brazil's 2020/21 soybean harvest to 134 million tonnes, from 133 million last month. The USDA also raised its estimate of Brazil's year-ago 2019/20 soy crop. The USDA raised its projection for 2020/21 global soybean ending stocks to 83.74 million tonnes, from 83.36 million tonnes last month, at a time when most analysts were expecting a cut. The USDA left its forecast of U.S. 2020/21 soybean ending stocks at 120 million bushels, unchanged from last month and a seven-year low, if realized. Port premiums for Brazilian soybeans have turned negative as rains disrupt harvesting and transportation of the oilseeds in key growing states such as Mato Grosso. India's soymeal exports jumped over five-fold on year in February to 360,000 tn, The Soybean Processors Association of India data showed. Soymeal exports in December a year ago were just 71,000 tn. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 5563 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.7% to settled at 146095 while prices up 31 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 5255 and below same could see a test of 5230 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5315, a move above could see prices testing 5350.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 5230-5350.

* Soyabean prices gained tracking rise in overseas prices as concerns about crops in South America stoked worries over global supplies.

* India's soymeal exports jumped over five-fold on year in February to 360,000 tn

* The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange lowered its estimates of Argentina's soybean harvest to 44 million tonnes, below its previous forecasts

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  32 Rupees to 5563 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil​​​​​​​      

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -1.43% at 1275.5 amid profit booking tracking weakness in palm oil after prices rallied to record high on tightening global vegetable oil supplies and on uncertainty about South American crop weather. Support also seen as the availability of sunflower in the domestic market is low due to higher prices. Also Soyabean arrivals is decreasing in the mandis. According to USDA, soy production in Argentina may decline by 2.5 million tonnes from January estimate to 4.75 million tonnes, due to no rain in February, excessive rainfall in March. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange lowered its estimate of Argentina's soybean harvest to 44 million tonnes, from 46 million previously, citing dry conditions. Brazilian government supply agency Conab raised its estimate of the country's soybean crop to 135.131 million tonnes, up from its previous estimate of 133.817 million. U.S. soybean processors recorded their second-largest monthly crush on record in January, the latest in a string of historically active months of soy processing, according to data released by the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA). NOPA members, which handle about 95 percent of all soybeans processed in the United States, crushed 184.654 million bushels of soybeans last month, up from 183.159 million bushels in December and 176.940 million bushels in January 2020. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1289.1 Rupees per 10 kgs. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.38% to settled at 54180 while prices down -18.5 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1260 and below same could see a test of 1246 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1297, a move above could see prices testing 1320.         

Trading Ideas:            

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1246-1320.

* Ref soyoil dropped amid profit booking tracking weakness in palm oil after prices rallied to record high on tightening global vegetable oil supplies 

* However downside seen limited as the availability of sunflower in the domestic market is low due to higher prices.

* NOPA soy crush jumps to 184.654 million bushels, second biggest on record

*  At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1289.1 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil​​​​​​​      

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -0.89% at 1128 on profit booking at record high levels as India's palm oil imports fell 27% in February from a year earlier to their lowest in nine months. India imported 394,495 tonnes of palm oil, down from 540,470 tonnes a year earlier, the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) said in a statement. Supply is tight as end-February inventories fell more than expected to 1.3 million tonnes while production declined to its lowest in five years, industry regulator Malaysian Palm Oil Board data showed. Crude palm oil production last month declined 1.85% from January to 1.11 million tonnes, while palm oil exports plunged 5.5% to 895,556 tonnes, the MPOB said. A survey forecast inventories to rise 7% to 1.42 million tonnes. Production was seen picking up for the first time in five months, rising 5.8% to 1.19 million tonnes. Exports were pegged to rise 0.5% to 952,500 tonnes, the survey showed. India's palm oil imports are set to rebound in March and April to meet rising demand from hotels and restaurants, as lower shipments last month have depleted stocks. Higher imports by India, the world's biggest buyer of the edible oil, is likely to support benchmark Malaysian palm oil prices that hit their highest level in a decade. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 24.5 Rupees to end at 1144.2 Rupees. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.08% to settled at 5072 while prices down -10.1 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1118.4 and below same could see a test of 1108.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1140.4, a move above could see prices testing 1152.7.    

Trading Ideas:            

* CPO trading range for the day is 1108.7-1152.7.

* Crude palm oil dropped on profit booking at record high levels as India's Feb palm oil imports down 27% yr/yr to 9 – month low

* Supply is tight as end-February inventories fell more than expected to 1.3 million tonnes while production declined to its lowest in five years

* Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Mar. 1-10 fell 18.4 percent to 334,556 tonnes from 409,817 tonnes shipped during Feb. 1-10.

* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 24.5 Rupees to end at 1144.2 Rupees.

Mustard Seed​​​​​​​      

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 1.13% at 5810 as the crop ready to be harvested has suffered a lot due to the intense sun and heat for the past several days, cloudburst occurred in eastern Rajasthan. In many areas, there has been hailstorm with rain. Support also seen as the moisture content is being said to be high in the new mustard product coming. The government has banned mustard oil blended with other oils from 08-June. Support also seen due to better demand as millers remain in the procurement due to the pipeline being empty. Despite this, millers and traders are showing activity in purchasing because all the godowns are lying vacant. Government agencies are also watching the market. When there is a good arrival of dry new goods in the coming days, the activity of big companies as well as stockists will increase while heavy regular procurement of oil millers will continue. During the current Rabi season, domestic production of mustard is expected to rise to a new record level of 12-15 lakh tonnes as compared to last year but due to heavy buying by oil mills and stockists, its market price is expected to be much higher than the minimum price. Mustard supply is continuously increasing in the major mandis of Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, Gujarat and Eastern India. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 5857.25 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.97% to settled at 49340 while prices up 65 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 5767 and below same could see a test of 5725 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5864, a move above could see prices testing 5919.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 5725-5919.

* Mustard prices gained as the crop ready to be harvested has suffered a lot as there has been hailstorm with rain in many parts of Rajasthan.

* Support also seen as the moisture content is being said to be high in the new mustard product coming.

* The government has banned mustard oil blended with other oils from 08-June.

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 5857.25 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric      

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.79% at 8570 as the arrival of turmeric in the Nizamabad yard has doubled. Pressure also seen as no demand for shipments at current prices of around ₹9,000 and export prospects of turmeric have been affected. The arrival of dry goods in the coming days, the quality will also start to improve. The arrival of new goods has started in Telangana and Sangli Mandi in Maharashtra. The arrival of new crop on the Erode line will start in the month of March. But due to less sowing this year, the production is also less likely than last year. During the current week Erode single polished bundle in Erode Mandi was quoted at Rs 6100/6300 with a rise from Rs 5800/6000. In recent sessions, prices were up in the spot due to lack of stock and inward arrivals of new goods in the month of February-March. During the current week, the price of Gatta without polish in Warangal rose by Rs 200 to Rs 5600. While the double polished bundle was strengthened from Rs 6200 to Rs 6400. Further new goods arrived in the turmeric auction held in Sangli Mandi, Maharashtra in the beginning of the week but due to moisture and quality turmeric trade was low. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8058.35 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.57% to settled at 7970 while prices down -68 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8392 and below same could see a test of 8212 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8760, a move above could see prices testing 8948.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 8212-8948.

* Turmeric dropped as the arrival of turmeric in the Nizamabad yard has doubled.

* Pressure also seen as no demand for shipments at current prices of around ₹9,000 and export prospects of turmeric have been affected.

* The arrival of new goods has started in Telangana and Sangli Mandi in Maharashtra.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8058.35 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees.

Jeera​​​​​​​      

Jeera yesterday settled up by 3.36% at 14475 as there is a possibility of a decrease in the production of cumin due to the rise in temperature. However upside seen limited as the arrival from the fields has started intensifying but the market is awaiting better quality spices with lower moisture content. In Unjha Mandi, 21,000 bags have come in as compared to 12,500 bags in Rajkot whereas 7,500 bags have arrived in Rajkot as compared to 7,000 bags in the previous session. The Unjha market is receiving nearly 1,000 bags per day from north Gujarat, Saurashtra, and parts of Rajasthan. Jeera production for 2021-22 (marketing period) is estimated at 391,291 MT (around 71 lakh bags each of 55 kg) compared to last year’s 451,451 MT (82 lakh bags). Major export demand coming from UAE and other gulf countries ahead of Ramzan. Domestic demand is also boosted by Ramzan and marriage season. Weather conditions in major producing states have hampered the quality and supply of jeera. On the international front support is also seen as turkey and Syria have reported less production of cumin this season. Production in Syria had dropped around 25-30 percent in 2020 versus the previous year due to political instability that has hampered the farming sector. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 13612.5 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.8% to settled at 3741 while prices up 470 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 14170 and below same could see a test of 13860 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14675, a move above could see prices testing 14870.      

Trading Ideas:            

* Jeera trading range for the day is 13860-14870.

* Jeera gained as there is a possibility of a decrease in the production of cumin due to the rise in temperature. 

* However upside seen limited as the arrival from the fields has started intensifying

* In Unjha Mandi, 21,000 bags have come in as compared to 12,500 bags in Rajkot whereas 7,500 bags have arrived in Rajkot

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 13612.5 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.41% at 22020 after 2020/21 U.S. cotton forecasts show lower consumption and ending stocks relative to last month. Production is reduced 250,000 bales to 14.7 million, based on the March 9 Cotton Ginnings report. Consumption is reduced 100,000 bales due to the industry’s lagging recovery from the previous year’s sharp losses. Ending stocks are 100,000 bales lower this month at 4.2 million bales. The projected marketing year average price received by upland producers of 69.0 cents per pound is up 1 cent from last month. The global 2020/21 cotton supply and demand estimates show lower production and ending stocks compared with last month, but higher mill use and trade. Estimated global production is reduced nearly 830,000 bales, largely due to lower Brazilian and U.S. production. Cotton import pace and indications of recovering global consumption helped boost consumption estimates for Turkey, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Vietnam, more than offsetting lower projections for the United States and Taiwan. Imports are also projected higher in the countries with larger consumption, and the forecast for 2020/21 world trade is more than 600,000 bales higher this month. On the export side, higher Indian exports account for most of the increase as auctions by the Cotton Corporation of India have released much of the cotton purchased last year under the Minimum Support Price program. In spot market, Cotton gained by 180 Rupees to end at 22090 Rupees. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.34% to settled at 6542 while prices down -90 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21920 and below same could see a test of 21830 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 22130, a move above could see prices testing 22250.

Trading Ideas:            

* Cotton trading range for the day is 21830-22250.

* Cotton prices dropped after 2020/21 U.S. cotton forecasts show lower consumption and ending stocks relative to last month.

* Consumption is reduced 100,000 bales due to the industry’s lagging recovery from the previous year’s sharp losses.

* Production is reduced 250,000 bales to 14.7 million

* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 180 Rupees to end at 22090 Rupees.

Chana       

Chana yesterday settled up by 0.55% at 5120 as unseasonal rains and hailstorms lashing part of Eastern Madhya Pradesh are affecting the ready-to-harvest crop. Support also seen as support seen after update Chana yield in Rajasthan are lower by 20 -30 % compared to last year and sudden rise in temperature causing early maturity. However upside seen limited as the inventory held by the government is reasonable enough to balance the consumption till the new season supply is available. There are estimations of yields to surpass their recent five year average because of ample moisture retained after the monsoon season. Government’s planting data says that the planted area for chickpeas in India has increased from 10.731 million hectares at this time last year to a record 11.2 million. The average output for this year is estimated near to 11.74 million MT, up from 11.35 million last year. However downside seen limited due to lower arrivals and steady off take in the Chana processed products. The recent lockdown imposition in Maharashtra has resulted in temporary closure of few mandis, because of which there will be a supply constraint for a while. The Daily All India arrivals are limited these days and at the same time, rising prices is prompting NAFED to without their sale decision. Actual production likely to be much lower than official estimate due to damage to crop due to rising heat. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 5050 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 8.81% to settled at 67780 while prices up 28 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5086 and below same could see a test of 5053 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5165, a move above could see prices testing 5211.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Chana trading range for the day is 5053-5211.

* Chana gains as unseasonal rains and hailstorms lashing part of Eastern Madhya Pradesh are affecting the ready-to-harvest crop. 

* Chana yield in Rajasthan are lower by 20 -30 % compared to last year

* The inventory held by the government is reasonable enough to balance the consumption till the new season supply is available.

* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -35.4 Rupees to end at 5050 Rupees per 100 kgs.

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