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Gold
Gold yesterday settled down by -0.44% at 47093 pressured by a jump in U.S. Treasury yields and a firmer dollar ahead of the Federal Reserve policy decision. Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields jumped to their highest since April 13, increasing the opportunity cost of holding bullion. U.S. consumer confidence jumped to a 14-month high in April as increased vaccinations against COVID-19 and additional fiscal stimulus allowed for more services businesses to reopen, boosting demand and hiring by companies. The upbeat survey from the Conference Board, which also showed a strong increase in vacation plans, suggested the economy continued to power ahead early in the second quarter after what appears to have been robust growth in the first three months of the year, believed by many economists to have been the second strongest since 2003. Growth this year is expected to be the best in nearly four decades. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index raced to a reading of 121.7 this month. That was the highest level since February 2020, just before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, and followed a But the expectations index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, ticked up to 109.8 from 108.3 in March. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.2% to settled at 10662 while prices down -210 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 46837 and below same could see a test of 46582 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 47310, a move above could see prices testing 47528.
Trading Ideas:
# Gold trading range for the day is 46582-47528.
# Gold prices dropped pressured by a jump in U.S. Treasury yields and a firmer dollar ahead of the Federal Reserve policy decision.
# U.S. consumer confidence jumped to a 14-month high in April
# Goldman Sachs, however, sees gold prices at $2,000 an ounce over the next six months.

-www.kediaadvisory.com

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.65% at 69043 amid hopes for a quicker economic recovery were supported by stronger-than-expected US economic data showing consumer confidence soared to a 14-month high in April. Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields jumped to their highest since April 13 and the dollar rose against its rivals, denting the appeal of the safe-haven asset. The Fed is widely expected to maintain its ultra-easy monetary policy, but traders will be paying close attention to any changes to the accompanying statement that may signal a shift in the near future. Market participants expect Chair Jerome Powell to continue to defend the dovish stance of the Fed and dismiss any suggestions of tapering bond purchases in his press conference. The U.S. trade deficit in goods jumped to a record high in March, suggesting trade was a drag on economic growth in the first quarter, but that was likely offset by robust domestic demand amid massive government aid. Economic activity in the United States has rebounded more quickly compared to its global rivals. The pent-up demand is drawing in imports, eclipsing a recovery in exports and keeping the overall trade deficit elevated. The report from the Commerce Department on Wednesday also showed inventories at retailers were drawn down in March, underscoring the strong domestic demand. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 66.67% to settled at 6817 while prices down -1157 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 68662 and below same could see a test of 68282 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 69520, a move above could see prices testing 69998.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 68282-69998.
* Silver prices dropped amid hopes for a quicker economic recovery were supported by stronger-than-expected US economic data
* Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields jumped to their highest since April 13 and the dollar rose, denting the appeal of the safe-haven asset.
* The U.S. trade deficit in goods jumped to a record high in March, suggesting trade was a drag on economic growth in the first quarter

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 2.18% at 4778 on optimism after OPEC+ said it expects strong oil demand recovery in the second half of the year. However, rising coronavirus infections, particularly in India, and a bigger-than-expected build in US crude stocks limited gains. OPEC and its allies led by Russia, together known as OPEC+, decided to stick to their plan of gradually raising oil production beginning in May. An OPEC+ committee decided this week to move forward with a planned gradual crude production increase, anticipating a strong demand rebound this year, even as coronavirus cases rise in countries such as India. The producer group decided to skip a Wednesday meeting and instead gather in early June. US benchmark crude futures are up more than 6% so far this month amid signs of a consumption recovery in some parts of the world. Russian Deputy PM Alexander Novak said that there is optimism in the global oil market and global mobility is increasing. Earlier OPEC+ kept its forecast for global oil demand growth for this year unchanged, projecting it to rise by 6mbpd for 2021 after the biggest ever fall of 9.5 million bpd due to the pandemic. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 25.97% to settled at 6732 while prices up 102 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4702 and below same could see a test of 4625 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4836, a move above could see prices testing 4893.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4625-4893.
* Crude oil gained on optimism after OPEC+ said it expects strong oil demand recovery in the second half of the year.
* However, rising coronavirus infections, particularly in India, and a bigger-than-expected build in US crude stocks limited gains.
* OPEC and its allies led by Russia, together known as OPEC+, decided to stick to their plan of gradually raising oil production beginning in May

Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 0.91% at 220.9 on record exports and a small decline in production. Colder-than-usual April weather last week likely boosted heating by so much that utilities may have taken the unusual step of pulling gas from storage. With summer fast approaching, meteorologists forecast demand for air conditioning will exceed heating use over the next two weeks for the first time since autumn. Most parts of the country, however, will experience mild weather and use little air conditioning or heat during that time. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slipped to an average of 91.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April from 91.5 bcfd in March due to routine spring pipeline maintenance. That compares with a record monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would slide from 89.4 bcfd this week to 86.8 bcfd next week as the weather turns milder. The forecast for this week was lower than Refinitiv projected on Tuesday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has averaged 11.5 bcfd so far in April, compared with a monthly record of 11.2 bcfd in March. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.59% to settled at 21565 while prices up 2 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 218.5 and below same could see a test of 216.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 223.1, a move above could see prices testing 225.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 216.1-225.3.
* Natural gas prices rose on record exports and a small decline in production.
* Colder-than-usual April weather last week likely boosted heating by so much that utilities may have taken the unusual step of pulling gas from storage.
* The U.S. EIA said utilities added 38 bcf of gas into storage during the week ended April 16.

Copper


Copper yesterday settled down by -0.17% at 761.6 as dropping premium signalled demand weakness in top consumer China at a time when prices were edging near a record high in London. Yangshan copper premium fell to $45.50 a tonne, it lowest since April 2017, indicating subdued demand for imported metal into China. Ample copper supplies next year and in 2023 will keep the market balanced, but miners need to start investing in new capacity now to meet a pick up in demand growth as economies switch to renewable energy. World top copper producer Chile predicts its economy will fare better than initially anticipated in 2021, according to its quarterly public finance report, boosted by a welcome spike in the price of its top export and booming domestic demand. Gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 6% in 2021, up from a previous forecast in January of 5%, according to the report. The price of copper is expected to hit $3.99 per pound, up sharply from a previous forecast of $3.35, the report said. Domestic demand, meanwhile, is expected to grow 10.7% in 2021, up from a previous estimate of 8.8%.The report noted that consumer prices would rise 3.4%, up slightly from a prior forecast of 3.0%. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.97% to settled at 3889 while prices down -1.3 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 752.6 and below same could see a test of 743.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 767.2, a move above could see prices testing 772.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 743.6-772.8.
* Copper fell as dropping premium signalled demand weakness in top consumer China at a time when prices were edging near a record high in London.
* Yangshan copper premium fell to $45.50 a tonne, it lowest since April 2017, indicating subdued demand for imported metal into China.
* Ample copper supplies next year and in 2023 will keep the market balanced

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.11% at 234.65 but prices recovered from lows as speedy vaccination rollouts and trillions in dollars of economic stimulus lifted hopes of a robust global economic recovery and higher demand for metals. Recent economic readings from the United States and China reinforced this view, while President Biden’s multitrillion-dollar infrastructure plan lent further optimism to the bulls. ShFE zinc prices soared 3.2% to 22,430 yuan a tonne, its highest since March 23. Zinc concentrate imports in March exceeded expectations. Imported zinc concentrate will arrived at smelters in April and May. Imports are expected to remain high levels. Zinc concentrate is expected to remain a tight balance in Q2 amid the seasonal recovery of domestic mines. Maintenance at smelters will increase in May and output is expected to increase only 8,000 mt on the month, which is far less than expected. Thus, demand for zinc concentrate rose slightly. TCs in some regions is likely to rise in May as the tight zinc concentrate supply is eased. The national average price of zinc concentrate TCs is expected to increase by about 50 yuan/mt month-on-month in May, and the cost support for smelters will be slightly lowered. Though orders weakened amid high raw material prices, social inventories declined amid rigid demand. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.95% to settled at 2321 while prices down -0.25 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 232.2 and below same could see a test of 229.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 236.4, a move above could see prices testing 238.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 229.7-238.1.
* Zinc settled flat but prices recovered from lows as speedy vaccination rollouts and trillions in dollars of economic stimulus lifted hopes of a robust global economic recovery and higher demand for metals.
* Recent economic readings from the United States and China reinforced this view, while President Biden’s multitrillion-dollar infrastructure plan lent further optimism to the bulls.
* ShFE zinc prices soared 3.2% to 22,430 yuan a tonne, its highest since March 23. Zinc concentrate imports in March exceeded expectations.

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled up by 2.28% at 1308 as prospects for rebounding growth as the global vaccine rollout gathers pace underpinned a rally in the metals market. Meantime, the commodity growing usage in lithium-ion batteries and the accelerated roll-out of electric vehicles remains a positive backdrop for markets. In early March, nickel prices slumped to a 3-month low and stuck in a tight range until the end of April, after concerns about supply shortages eased following China’s Tsingshan announcement to produce a large amount of nickel matte in Indonesia. The global nickel market surplus expanded to 6,200 tonnes in February from a downwardly revised surplus of 3,500 tonnes in the previous month, data from the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) showed. During the first two months of the year, the global market saw a surplus of 9,700 tonnes, down from a surplus of 29,300 tonnes in the same period of 2020, Lisbon-based INSG added. Data showed inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 10.4% from a week earlier, the exchange said. The euro zone's recovery from its pandemic-induced economic downturn was much stronger than expected in April as the service industry adapted to lockdowns and made a surprise return to growth, a survey showed. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 15.34% to settled at 1594 while prices up 29.2 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1281.1 and below same could see a test of 1254.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1323.5, a move above could see prices testing 1338.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1254.1-1338.9.
* Nickel rose as prospects for rebounding growth as the global vaccine rollout gathers pace underpinned a rally in the metals market.
* The global nickel market surplus expanded to 6,200 tonnes in February from a downwardly revised surplus of 3,500 tonnes in the previous month
* During the first two months of the year, the global market saw a surplus of 9,700 tonnes, down from a surplus of 29,300 tonnes in the same period of 2020


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.23% at 194.7 amid improving demand prospects due to a global economic recovery and increased investments in green initiatives. Prices gained as support seen as social inventories of aluminium ingots stood at 1.14 million mt in China as of April 26, down 1,000 mt from last Thursday. The Federal Open Market Committee ends its two-day meeting on Wednesday, and while no major policy changes are expected, investors will pay close attention to comments from Chairman Jerome Powell. Powell is likely to face questions over whether an improving labor market and rising coronavirus vaccinations warrant a withdrawal of monetary easing. Most analysts though expect him to say such talk is premature, which could put downward pressure on Treasury yields and the dollar. German business sentiment rose by less than expected in April, the Ifo Institute’s business climate index revealed Monday, as a third wave of Covid-19 infections and industrial sector supply problems weighed on the recovery of Europe’s largest economy. The sales volume of new residential buildings in the US reached the highest level since 2006 in March. In April, the PMI of Britain showed that the economic activity had the fastest growth rate in seven years, and the retail sales in March had the biggest growth rate in nine months. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.08% to settled at 1927 while prices up 0.45 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 193.3 and below same could see a test of 191.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 195.7, a move above could see prices testing 196.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 191.8-196.6.
* Aluminium prices gained amid improving demand prospects due to a global economic recovery and increased investments in green initiatives.
* Prices gained as support seen as social inventories of aluminium ingots stood at 1.14 million mt in China, down 1,000 mt
* Primary aluminium ingot inventories in China fell, showed data.

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.71% at 964.9 on low level buying after prices dropped amid worries of lockdown it is anticipated that there will be slow supply and same with demand in domestic as well as in the international market. Due to favourable wheather condition,the production of mentha in the states has improved and is at much better terms compare to last year. Sowing data is adequate and it is expected that Mentha can hit the market by 15th of June. Mentha has high demand in the production of cosmetics and confectionery goods but as it is not considered as necessity in present scenerio it is not much in demand. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. In India, mentha is grown on 3,27,000-3,34,000 hectares, producing about 33,000-35,000 tonnes, accounting for 80 per cent share globally. With the boom in demand for oil and its derivatives in export markets, mentha production continued to rise until 2010. However, with the entry of synthetic menthol, the demand, price and production of mentha were hit. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 13.5 Rupees to end at 1078.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.88% to settled at 18 while prices up 6.8 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 956.6 and below same could see a test of 948.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 975.6, a move above could see prices testing 986.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 948.3-986.3.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 13.5 Rupees to end at 1078.1 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil gained  on low level buying after prices dropped amid worries of lockdown there will be slow demand
* Due to favourable wheather condition,the production of mentha in the states has improved and is at much better terms compare to last year.
* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled down by -2.35% at 6995 on continues profit booking after the Solvent Extractors’ Association (SEA) of India has stressed the need to impose more measures to check the excessive speculative activity in the soyabean futures. In a letter to the members of SEA of India, Atul Chaturvedi, President of the association, said that SEA was flooded with complaints from its members that the soyabean contract on the commodity exchange was witnessing an unnatural price run due to technical reasons and alleged price rigging by speculators. India is likely to receive “normal” monsoon rainfall this year, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said as part of its official April forecast. Except for parts of eastern and northeastern India, many parts of the country are expected to get “above normal” rainfall, the IMD’s models show. CME raises soybean futures (s) maintenance margins by 14.2% to $3,825 per contract from $3,350 for May 2021. Prices rallied in recent session on concerns about tightening global grain supplies triggered short-covering and fund-driven buying. The domestic 2020-21 soyabean crop would at best be 100 lakh tonnes, far less than the government estimate of 137 lt. Chinese demand for imported soyabean is projected at a record 100 million tonne this year to feed its burgeoning livestock. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped -15 Rupees to 7209 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.01% to settled at 75990 while prices down -168 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 6841 and below same could see a test of 6686 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7111, a move above could see prices testing 7226.
Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 6686-7226.
* Soyabean dropped on continues profit booking after the SEA has stressed the need to impose more measures to check the excessive speculative activity
* CME raises soybean maintenance margins by 14.2% to $3,825 per contract
* The domestic 2020-21 soyabean crop would at best be 100 lakh tonnes, far less than the government estimate of 137 lt.
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped  -15 Rupees to 7209 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 0.1% at 1401.8 on profit booking after reports that summer oilseed crop sowing progress is very good as on date. There is no impact of COVID-19 pandemic situation on progress of area coverage under summer crops in the country. Oilseeds 10.45 lakh ha area against 9.03 lakh ha area of last year, thus increase in area coverage by 1.41 lakh ha. Total vegetable oil imports rose marginally to 9,80,243 tonne in March 2021, compared to 9,55,422 tonne in the year-ago period. Support also seen due to low stocks, a slow recovery in output and higher global use in biofuel production. Prices rallied in recent session tracking rise in soyabean prices after the U.S. Department of Agriculture's plantings forecast for 2021 fell below most trade expectations. Export of oilmeals jumped 205% year-on-year in February to 393,309 tonne, compared with 128,761 tonne, according to data compiled by the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA). The overall export of oilmeals during April 2020 to February 2021 recovered sharply and stood at 3,358,649 tonne provisionally, against 2,256,614 tonne during the same period of the previous year, up by 49%, according to the association. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1432.5 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.2% to settled at 35110 while prices up 1.4 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1380 and below same could see a test of 1358 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1414, a move above could see prices testing 1426.
Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1358-1426.
* Ref soyoil settled flat on profit booking after reports that summer oilseed crop sowing progress is very good as on date.
* There is no impact of COVID-19 pandemic situation on progress of area coverage under summer crops in the country.
* Oilseeds 10.45 lakh ha area against 9.03 lakh ha area of last year, thus increase in area coverage by 1.41 lakh ha.
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1432.5 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 0.32% at 1178.2 on short covering after prices dropped earlier as demand is expected to be lower, with new coronavirus infections in the country hitting a record peak for a fifth day. Pressure also seen due to higher-than[1]expected inventories and production weighed on the market. The weakness is mainly due to higher crop output and rising inventories in Malaysia and bearish news from the biodiesel market. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association in Malaysia estimated production during April 1-20 will be unchanged from the previous month. Global commodity prices are expected to stay firm around current levels in 2021 after recovering in the first quarter buoyed by strong economic growth, the World Bank said. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products during April 1-20 rose between 10% and 12.7% from a month earlier, according to cargo surveyor data, but the rise in shipments was lower than market expectations. India's palm oil imports in March jumped 57% year on year as refiners increased purchases of the tropical oil to reduce expensive sunflower oil imports. Malaysia's end-March palm oil stocks jumped more than expected to a four-month top, boosted by higher imports and production, but a surge in exports kept domestic supply in check, data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board showed. In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -18.7 Rupees to end at 1221.6 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.43% to settled at 5888 while prices up 3.7 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1161.5 and below same could see a test of 1144.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1187.2, a move above could see prices testing 1196.3.
Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 1144.9-1196.3.
* Crude palm oil gained on short covering after prices dropped earlier as demand is expected to be lower, as coronavirus infections in the country hitting a record peak
* Pressure also seen due to higher-than-expected inventories and production weighed on the market.
* The weakness is mainly due to higher crop output and rising inventories in Malaysia and bearish news from the biodiesel market.
* In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped  by -18.7 Rupees to end at 1221.6 Rupees.

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled down by -1.71% at 6993 after reports 100% Rapeseed Mustard has been harvested in the states of Rajasthan, UP, MP, WB, Jharkhand, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Odisha and Assam. Pressure also seen after SOPA, MOPA and SEA have written a letter to SEBI to curb futures, as there is speculation in it and MOPA has said that a six percent circuit instead of four percent is making it difficult to run oil mills as prices are changing rapidly, so it should be reduced to two per cent. Prices rallied in recent sessions as crushing as increased due to rise in mustard oil demand. A total of 1.2 million tonnes of mustard crushing occurred in the country in March 2021 compared to 5.50 lakh tonnes in the month of February. Whereas, the stock of mustard with farmers is estimated to be 62.50 lakh tonnes and processors and stockists have a stock of six lakh tonnes of mustard. The arrival of mustard in February was 4.50 lakh tonne while in March it reached 17.7 million tonne. India mustard output this year is projected at 104.27 lakh tonnes. However, the Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade (COOIT) and the Mustard Oil Producers' Association (MOPA) have estimated the production at 89.50 lakh tonnes. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -206 Rupees to end at 7325 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.48% to settled at 66320 while prices down -122 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 6879 and below same could see a test of 6765 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7059, a move above could see prices testing 7125.
Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 6765-7125.
* Mustard seed prices dropped after reports 100% Rapeseed Mustard has been harvested
* Pressure also seen after SOPA, MOPA and SEA have written a letter to SEBI to curb futures
* As per USDA, World Mustard seed production is estimated to remain steady at 689 lakh tonnes in 2020-21.
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -206 Rupees to end at 7325 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric


Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.53% at 7878 on profit booking as pressure seen after prices dropped across various agricultural produce marketing committee (APMC) yards in the country mainly on account of slack demand. Turmeric prices are down as there is no demand because traders fear a fresh lockdown due to rise in Covid-19 cases could result in stockists’ purchases dropping. Prices have declined by about ₹1,000 a quintal at various APMCs in Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Maharashtra. Prices in Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra have slid to below ₹7,400 from about ₹8,400 at the start of the month. Arrivals are good but there is no demand particularly from stockists. Turmeric goes to Gujarat, particularly to cities such as Bhavnagar, Jamnagar and Ahmedabad. But purchases from stockists have slowed down since they fear grocery stores will shut due to lockdown. According to the Spices Board of India, turmeric exports increased 34 per cent in volume during the April-December period of the last fiscal to 1.39 lakh tonnes (1.03 lakh tonnes). The value of shipments increased 19 per cent to ₹2,461 crore during the period. According to the first advance estimates of horticultural crop for the current season to June, turmeric production is projected to be lower at 11.06 lakh tonnes (lt) against 11.53 lt last year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7646.9 Rupees dropped -26.65 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.18% to settled at 7825 while prices down -42 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7760 and below same could see a test of 7644 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7966, a move above could see prices testing 8056.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7644-8056.
* Turmeric dropped on profit booking as pressure seen after prices dropped across various APMC yards mainly on account of slack demand.
* Turmeric prices are down as there is no demand because traders fear a fresh lockdown could result in stockists’ purchases dropping.
* Arrivals are good but there is no demand particularly from stockists.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7646.9 Rupees dropped -26.65 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.18% at 13895 on some low level buying after prices remained under pressure in recent sessions as there is pressure on the supply of new crops in the spot markets and demand will be affected due to the lockdown amid resurgence in corona virus cases in many countries. Pressure seen after update in Gujarat and Rajasthan mandis, the arrival of cumin has increased by 65.28% during the current marketing year (February-January) 2021-22. The total arrival in both the states from February 1 to March 31, 2021 was 136031.18 tonnes as compared to 82300.31 tonnes at the same time last year. Preliminary data showed for March 2021 showed jeera exports gained by 92% on year on year basis to 37,326 tons against 19,406 tons in March 2020. In 2020 March exports of Cumin were less because of boarder tensions with China. According to the Union Government's Ministry of Consumer Affairs, the arrival of cumin in the mandis of Gujarat from 1 February to 31 March 2021 was 121063.57 tonnes while it was was 79604.84 tonnes from February to 31 March 2020. In this way, there was a 52.08 percent increase in arrivals. The Federation of Indian Spice Stakeholders has estimated the production of cumin from the country to be 478520 tonnes this year. This production was 535500 tonnes in the Rabi season 2020. This production of cumin is 10.6 percent is less than in the year 2020. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -21.9 Rupees to end at 14054.55 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.52% to settled at 5337 while prices up 25 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13785 and below same could see a test of 13675 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13970, a move above could see prices testing 14045.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 13675-14045.
* Jeera gained on some low level buying after prices remained under pressure as demand seen affected due to the lockdown amid resurgence in corona virus cases.
* In Gujarat and Rajasthan mandis, the arrival of cumin has increased by 65.28% during the current marketing year
* Preliminary data showed for March 2021 showed jeera exports gained by 92% on year on year basis to 37,326 tons
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -21.9 Rupees to end at 14054.55 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.32% at 21980 tracking weakness in other commodities due to demand concerns amid rising COVID cases in Asian countries. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report showed net sales of 103,100 running bales for 2020/2021, down 16% from the previous week and 44% from the prior 4-week average. Support also seen as CAI estimated cotton exports to increase by 20% to 60 lakh bales in the 2020-21 season that begins in October, mainly due to higher international prices. CAI increases the production estimate to 360 lakh bales on higher output in North India. The second wave of Covid-19 is taking its toll on Gujarat’s textile industry which saw at least 25% decline in fabric production in the past 15-20 days. Since the beginning of April, production of fabric has gone down in the state from around 5.50 crore metres to almost 4 crore metres per day. Demand from textile traders has gone down drastically. If the situation doesn’t improve in next fortnight period, production of fabric would further plummet to as low as 50%. If the lockdown increases in Bangladesh, Indian cotton exports will be affected. CAI Crop Committee has estimated the total cotton supply till end of the cotton season 2020-21, that is up to September 30, at 496 lakh bales. In spot market, Cotton gained by 20 Rupees to end at 22070 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.48% to settled at 8870 while prices down -70 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21870 and below same could see a test of 21770 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 22110, a move above could see prices testing 22250.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 21770-22250.
* Cotton prices dropped tracking weakness in other commodities due to demand concerns amid rising COVID cases in Asian countries.
* However, CAI estimated cotton exports to increase by 20% to 60 lakh bales in the 2020-21 season that begins in October
* USDA’s weekly export sales report showed net sales of 103,100 running bales for 2020/2021, down 16% from the previous week
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 20 Rupees to end at 22070 Rupees.

Chana

Chana yesterday settled down by -0.73% at 5291 on profit booking ahead of sowing report which can report higher sowing under Pulses area compare with last year. As on 23.04.2021, total summer crops have been sown on 73.76 lakh ha area against 60.67 lakh ha during the corresponding period of last year, thus increase in total summer area coverage by 13.09 lakh ha compared to corresponding period of last year in the country. Sowing reported under Pulses 12.75 lakh ha against 6.45 lakh ha area of last year i.e. increase in area coverage by 6.30 lakh ha. Pressure also seen as demand gets affected amid rise in Covid cases after prices gained in recent session due to expectation of better demand during the upcoming festival season. In addition, the government has initiated procurement at the minimum support price in major markets. Government agency Nafed has purchased 1.52 lakh tonnes of gram in Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka and Gujarat. According to the second advance estimate of the Ministry of Agriculture, a record 116 million tonnes of gram production is expected in the 2020-21 season. As per Ministry of Agriculture data, chana sowing in this Rabi season crossed 112 lakh ha, which is up by about five per cent from same period last year. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -7.85 Rupees to end at 5283.15 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.8% to settled at 89640 while prices down -39 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5258 and below same could see a test of 5225 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5319, a move above could see prices testing 5347.
Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 5225-5347.
* Chana prices fall on profit booking ahead of sowing report which can report higher sowing under Pulses area compare with last year.
* Total summer crops have been sown on 73.76 lakh ha area against 60.67 lakh ha during the corresponding period of last year
* Sowing reported under Pulses 12.75 lakh ha against 6.45 lakh ha area of last year i.e. increase in area coverage by 6.30 lakh ha.
* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -7.85 Rupees to end at 5283.15 Rupees per 100 kgs.

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