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Gold yesterday settled down by -0.24% at 46126 as pressure seen after data showed the labor market is steadily recovering as additional fiscal stimulus and falling COVID-19 cases allow more services businesses to reopen. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits totaled a seasonally adjusted 861,000 for the week ended Feb. 13, compared to 848,000 in the prior week, the Labor Department said. Part of the increase in claims could be related to the temporary closure of automobile plants beginning last week due to a global semiconductor chip shortage. Prices also dropped pressured by a combination of a stronger dollar and rising US Treasury yields. On top of that, expectations of a robust economic recovery fuelled by the vaccines’ rollout and more government spending spooked investors away from safe-haven assets. Beyond the weakness around the past sessions, signals that the Fed will be keeping monetary policy extremely easy for the foreseeable future have lent some optimism to the gold bulls. In addition, the U.S. Congress is considering President Joe Biden's massive $1.9 trillion recovery package. That would be on top of nearly $900 billion in additional fiscal stimulus provided by the government at the end of December. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.93% to settled at 13750 while prices down -111 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 45926 and below same could see a test of 45725 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 46413, a move above could see prices testing 46699.          

Trading Ideas:            

* Gold trading range for the day is 45725-46699.

* Gold dropped after data showed the labor market is steadily recovering as additional fiscal stimulus and falling COVID-19 cases allow more services businesses to reopen.

* Prices also dropped pressured by a combination of a stronger dollar and rising US Treasury yields.

* Initial claims for state unemployment benefits totaled a seasonally adjusted 861,000 for the week ended Feb. 13, compared to 848,000 in the prior week

Silver      

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.06% at 68494 continuing its weak trend on the back of dollar strength and rising U.S. Treasury yields. The Fed's January meeting showed Federal Reserve officials were still prepared to keep monetary policy easy to help the coronavirus-hit economy. Minutes of the Federal Reserve's Jan 26-27 policy meeting showed most Fed officials "anticipated continued progress in vaccinations would lead to a sizable boost in economic activity." Last week's claims data covered the period during which the government surveyed businesses for the nonfarm portion of February's employment report. Claims, however, have not provided a good signal on job growth because of the economic shock caused by the pandemic. The economy created 49,000 jobs in January after shedding 227,000 in December, the first drop in payrolls in eight months. After reporting a sharp increase in new residential construction in the U.S. in the previous month, the Commerce Department released a report showing housing starts pulled back by much more than expected in the month of January. The Commerce Department said housing starts tumbled by 6.0 percent to an annual rate of 1.580 million in January after soaring by 8.2 percent to an upwardly revised rate of 1.680 million in December. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.82% to settled at 11835 while prices down -737 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 67917 and below same could see a test of 67339 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 69356, a move above could see prices testing 70217.          

Trading Ideas:            

* Silver trading range for the day is 67339-70217.

* Silver prices dropped continuing its weak trend on the back of dollar strength and rising U.S. Treasury yields.

* The Fed's January meeting showed Federal Reserve officials were still prepared to keep monetary policy easy to help the coronavirus-hit economy.

* Fed officials "anticipated continued progress in vaccinations would lead to a sizable boost in economic activity

Crude oil   

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.09% at 4410 amid prospects of OPEC increasing crude production after prices rose earlier after data showed another weekly decline in U.S. crude stockpiles, and outages in Texas due to frigid temperatures. U.S. crude oil stocks fell in the most recent week, data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute showed. Crude inventories fell by 5.8 million barrels in the week to Feb. 12 to about 468 million barrels, compared with expectations for a draw of 2.4 million barrels. Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports rose for a sixth straight month to an eight-month peak in December 2020, official data showed. Exports rose to 6.495 million barrels per day (bpd), highest since April 2020, from November's 6.35 million bpd. The Texas energy sector was in the dark for a fifth day, as oil producers remained without power, several ports closed, and at least a fifth of U.S. refining output was offline due to an arctic blast hitting most of the United States. The cold snap, which has killed at least 21 people and knocked out power to millions of people in Texas, is not expected to let up until this weekend. OPEC's secretary general said there were grounds for optimism that 2021 would be a year of recovery after the slump in oil prices and demand caused by the pandemic. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 149.43% to settled at 5445 while prices down -4 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4366 and below same could see a test of 4321 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4478, a move above could see prices testing 4545.

Trading Ideas:            

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4321-4545.

* Crude oil prices pared gains amid prospects of OPEC increasing crude production 

* Saudi crude exports hit eight-month peak in December 2020

* Oil drillers, refiners struggle with Texas deep freeze

Nat.Gas     

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -4.5% at 225.1 on a smaller-than-expected storage draw last week and forecasts for a reprieve from an Arctic blast. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast U.S. utilities pulled 237 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Feb. 12. Prices surged higher this week after a major storm caused chaos throughout the southern and central United States. Prices gained as steep declines in supply and large swings in demand drove prices to levels not seen since November. US production has fallen to a four-year low, as freezing weather in top producer Texas triggered blackouts and caused liquids to freeze inside pipes, shutting down wells and processing plant. The winter storm in Texas, the country's biggest oil and natural gas producer, knocked out about 40% of the state's power generating capacity, with natural gas wells and pipelines, along with wind turbines, frozen shut. The U.S. natural gas output slumped to 72.88 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Wednesday, the lowest level since January 2017. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 has averaged 85.7 billion bcfd so far in February, down from 91.1 bcfd in January, due in part to the freezing of some wells. Output hit an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -44.67% to settled at 7585 while prices down -10.6 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 217.8 and below same could see a test of 210.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 236, a move above could see prices testing 247.      

Trading Ideas:            

*  Natural gas trading range for the day is 210.6-247.

* Natural gas fell on a smaller-than-expected storage draw last week and forecasts for a reprieve from an Arctic blast.

* EIA forecast U.S. utilities pulled 237 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Feb. 12.

* The U.S. natural gas output slumped to 72.88 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Wednesday, the lowest level since January 2017.

Copper      

Copper yesterday settled up by 2.03% at 657.4 as top metals consumer China returned from a week-long Lunar New Year holiday, with brightening demand prospects and supply concerns underpinning the market. Upbeat U.S. data, including retail sales, signs that the Federal Reserve will maintain its accommodative stance, and hopes for further U.S. stimulus bolstered expectations of a swift global recovery from the pandemic. U.S. retail sales posted the largest gain in seven months in January, after households received additional pandemic relief money from the government. Fed officials said they were still prepared to keep their easy monetary policy on track to help heal a job market hit by the pandemic. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) rolled over maturing medium-term facility loans (MLF) of CNY 200 billion while keeping the interest rate unchanged for the 10th straight month on February 18th, 2021. The central bank said in a statement it was keeping the rate steady at 2.95 percent. The same amount of such MLF loans were due on the same day. PBoC also injected CNY 20 billion via reverse repos at an interest rate of 2.2 percent, with CNY 280 billion maturing on the same day. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.79% to settled at 2770 while prices up 13.05 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 652.3 and below same could see a test of 647 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 660.8, a move above could see prices testing 664.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Copper trading range for the day is 647-664.

* Copper prices on MCX trading at all-time high amid brightening demand prospects and supply concerns underpinning the market.

*  U.S. data, including retail sales, signs that the Federal Reserve will maintain its accommodative stance

* Hopes for further U.S. stimulus bolstered expectations of a swift global recovery from the pandemic.

Zinc    

Zinc yesterday settled up by 2.88% at 234.1 amid renewed optimism for an acceleration in global economic growth. US retail sales, industrial output and producer prices data provided robust surprises to the upside, signaling the economic recovery from the pandemic recession is gaining momentum as vaccine deployment progresses. In addition, orders for iron towers, scaffolds and photovoltaics are expected to be robust, which will also lend support to zinc prices. Accelerated vaccination will help the economic recovery of major economies such as Europe and the United States. However, we need to pay attention to the impact of power outages and vaccine shipments in the US caused by heavy snow on the market. Data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots across Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Hebei increased 57,400 mt in the week ended February 18 to 224,500 mt. The stocks rose 65,100 mt from last Monday February 8. The downstream basically had a holiday during the CNY with few shipments, while most smelters were in normal production, constantly shipping zinc ingots. Arrivals in warehouses rose significantly, leading to a sharp increase in zinc inventories. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.32% to settled at 1972 while prices up 6.55 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 230.1 and below same could see a test of 225.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 236.5, a move above could see prices testing 238.7.

Trading Ideas:            

* Zinc trading range for the day is 225.9-238.7.

* Zinc prices gained amid renewed optimism for an acceleration in global economic growth.

* In addition, orders for iron towers, scaffolds and photovoltaics are expected to be robust, which will also lend support to zinc prices.

* US retail sales, industrial output and producer prices data provided robust surprises to the upside, signaling the economic recovery

Nickel      

Nickel yesterday settled up by 1.91% at 1387.7 driven by low inventories and expectations of higher industrial demand on the back of stimulus and vaccine-fueled economic recovery. Production guidance from the top 25 copper producers indicates the market may be in a sizable deficit this year. The commodity, considered an economic barometer, has been in a massive rally from its March’s multi-year lows on the back of unprecedented measures from central banks and governments to shore up economic growth. Prices also remained supported amid hopes that an economic recovery in 2021 and ongoing environment concerns would boost demand for electric vehicles, which are increasingly using batteries with higher nickel content. In the shorter term, nickel inventories in LME registered warehouses will help to meet battery demand, but concern over shortages could push up prices even further in coming months. Nickel ore inventories across all Chinese ports decreased 169,000 wmt from February 10 to 7.87 million wmt as of February 18, showed data. In Ni content, the stocks fell 1,300 mt to 62,100 mt. Data also showed that nickel ore stocks across seven major Chinese ports decreased 169,000 wmt during the same period to 6.27 million wmt. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.04% to settled at 1634 while prices up 26 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1368.4 and below same could see a test of 1349 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1398.8, a move above could see prices testing 1409.8.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1349-1409.8.

* Nickel gained driven by low inventories and expectations of higher industrial demand on the back of stimulus and vaccine-fueled economic recovery.

* Production guidance from the top 25 copper producers indicates the market may be in a sizable deficit this year.

* Nickel inventories in LME registered warehouses will help to meet battery demand, but concern over shortages supporting prices.

Aluminium      

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.88% at 172.7 driven by a recovery in demand particularly in the automotive, packaging and construction sectors from the Covid-19 hit. Meantime, the Biden administration kept a tariff rate of 10 percent on aluminum imports from the United Arab Emirates. The Biden administration's 190 million stimulus bill was just around the corner. Economic data showed that retail sales increased by 5.3% in January, the biggest increase in seven months. Manufacturing output increased for the fourth consecutive month in January, exceeding expectations. Confidence of residential builders rose slightly in February. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting in January, various economic data, and whether the bullish sentiment could continue to ferment to make the contract maintain its upward trend again will come under scrutiny tonight. Social inventories of primary aluminium across eight consumption areas in China, including SHFE warrants, expanded 126,000 mt during the Chinese New Year holiday to 901,000 mt as of February 18, and stocks in Wuxi, Nanhai and Gongyi mainly contributed to the increase. Data showed that stocks of 6063 aluminium billet across the five major consumption areas – Foshan, Wuxi, Huzhou, Changzhou and Nanchang – in China rose 48,700 mt from the pre-holiday level to 214,200 mt as of February 18, as arrivals of cargoes increased. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -22.68% to settled at 467 while prices up 1.5 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 171.8 and below same could see a test of 170.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 173.7, a move above could see prices testing 174.5.    

Trading Ideas:            

*  Aluminium trading range for the day is 170.7-174.5.

*  Aluminium gained driven by a recovery in demand particularly in the automotive, packaging and construction sectors from the Covid-19 hit.

* Meantime, the Biden administration kept a tariff rate of 10 percent on aluminum imports from the United Arab Emirates.

* Economic data showed that retail sales increased by 5.3% in January, the biggest increase in seven months.

Mentha oil     

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.1% at 953.8 on low level buying after prices dropped due to weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. Support also seen on the expectation that India’s fragrance industry which had been slow, now slowly gaining the positive momentum post the COVID unlock down. Headed towards a new decade, the fragrance industry has received a much needed boost with the acceptance of trendy dhoop sticks and dhoop cones which has seen an increased 20% demand day by day. The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030. Growing demand for aroma chemicals in the food & beverage and fragrance industry will underpin the growth of the market. Strict regulations in relation to artificial flavours are complimenting to the expansion of natural aroma chemicals in the food sector. Out of India's total mentha oil exports, nearly 55% goes to China while 16% goes to the US and around 5% goes to Singapore. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1086.2 Rupees per 360 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -16.88% to settled at 64 while prices up 1 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 948 and below same could see a test of 942.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 959.9, a move above could see prices testing 965.9.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 942.1-965.9.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1086.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha oil gained on low level buying after prices dropped due to weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. 

* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.

* The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030.

Soyabean​​​​​​​      

Soyabean yesterday settled down by -0.7% at 4857 as pressure seen after WASDE report showed bigger soybean carryout than estimated. Brazilian farmers had managed to double the area harvested to 4%, from 2% in the previous week this also weighing on soybean prices. However downside seen limited due to lower production and stock on both domestic and international. The USDA pegged the U.S. 2020/2021 soybean carryout at 120 million bushels vs. the USDA’s January estimate of 140 million bushels. The USDA pegged the 2020/2021 Brazil soybean output at 133.0 mmt. vs. the USDA’s January estimate of 132 mmt. For Argentina, the USDA pegged its soybean output at 48.0 mmt. vs. and the USDA’s January estimate of 48.0 mmt. Soybean world ending stocks have been cut to 83.36Mt from 84.31Mt, and the estimate for China’s soybean imports was unchanged at 100Mt. USDA’s forecast for soybean imports to Europe including the United Kingdom has been cut by 250,000t to 15.15Mt. The country was expected to produce 120 million metric tons of soybeans but 80 lakh metric tons was produced. Crop of 40 lakh metric tons was damaged due to bad weather. Arrival of soybean has also increased in mandis in one week to 126,793.28 from 102,534.04 of last week. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 5080 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.02% to settled at 188915 while prices down -34 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 4826 and below same could see a test of 4794 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4900, a move above could see prices testing 4942.

Trading Ideas:            

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 4794-4942.

* Soyabean dropped as pressure seen after WASDE report showed bigger soybean carryout than estimated.

* Brazilian farmers had managed to double the area harvested to 4%, from 2% in the previous week this also weighing on soybean prices.

* However downside seen limited due to lower production and stock on both domestic and international.

* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  32 Rupees to 5080 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil​​​​​​​      

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -0.8% at 1134.5 on profit booking tracking weakness in soyabean prices after support seen as extreme cold weather in key U.S. growing areas raised worries about global supplies. Support also seen amid higher demand for edible oils amid winter season and lower imports of Soybean oil in the recent months. Government of India, lowered basic import duty on edible oils. The basic custom duty on CPO slashed from 27.5 percent to 15 percent whereas, soybean oil and sunflower oil duty is cut to 15% from 35%. The government has proposed 17.5% cess on CPO and 20% cess on crude soybean and sunflower oil, further added. The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India has compiled the export data for export of oilmeals for the month of December 2020 and provisionally reported at 512,997 tons compared to 220,404 tons in December, 2019 i.e. more than doubled (133%). The overall export of oilmeals during April to December 2020 recovered and provisionally reported at 2,461,696 tons compared to 1,955,276 tons during the same period of previous year i.e. up by 26%. Export of soybean meal is back on tract, thanks to tightening world supply of soybeans and also linked to the strike induced interruption of Argentina soybean meal. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1151.85 Rupees per 10 kgs. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.46% to settled at 44930 while prices down -9.1 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1129 and below same could see a test of 1122 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1147, a move above could see prices testing 1158.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1122-1158.

* Ref soyoil prices ended with losses on profit booking tracking weakness in soyabean prices after support seen as extreme cold weather in key U.S. growing areas 

* Support also seen amid higher demand for edible oils amid winter season and lower imports of Soybean oil in the recent months.

* The growth may be limited as US soy oil export sales are not encouraging.

* At the  Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1151.85 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil​​​​​​​      

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -0.55% at 1027.1 on fears of lower demand and as Malaysia raised its reference price for March export tax. Pressure also seem India has raised the base import price of crude palm oil by $32 to $1,045 per tonne. However downside seen limited amid buying from major consumers China and India and lower production from Malaysia and Indonesia due to labor shortages caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Both Indonesia and Malaysia responded to falling prices last March by fertilizing fewer trees, reducing fruit production. Malaysia maintained its March export tax for crude palm oil at 8% but raised the reference price to 3,977.36 ringgit per tonne, a circular on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board website showed. Putting further pressure on the market is lower local palm prices at destination markets like India, Pakistan and Bangladesh compared with the benchmark crude palm oil prices. India raised the base import price of crude palm oil by $32 to $1,045 per tonne, the government said in a statement Shipments of Malaysian palm oil products for February 1-15 climbed 27.4% from a year earlier according to cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services. Palm oil’s rise has also been supported by rallies in the likes of sunflower and rapeseed oils as the crops have been hurt by dry weather in the past year. In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -4.9 Rupees to end at 1041.6 Rupees. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.33% to settled at 4511 while prices down -5.7 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1022.3 and below same could see a test of 1017.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1034.5, a move above could see prices testing 1041.8. 

Trading Ideas:            

* CPO trading range for the day is 1017.4-1041.8.

* Crude palm oil dropped on fears of lower demand and as Malaysia raised its reference price for March export tax.

* Pressure also seem India has raised the base import price of crude palm oil by $32 to $1,045 per tonne.

* Malaysia maintained its March export tax for crude palm oil at 8% but raised the reference price to 3,977.36 ringgit per tonne

* In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped  by -4.9 Rupees to end at 1041.6 Rupees.

Mustard Seed      

Mustard Seed yesterday settled down by -1.96% at 5355 as pressure seen after update that year on year, the planted area of mustard has increased by 6.7 percent approximately. Prices gained in recent session amid crop damage in north due to cold waves. The latest Government data shows that the planted area in Mustard or RM seed has so far reached 73.25 Lakh hectares as against 68.64 Lakh hectares during last year’s corresponding period. The government aims to take the area under mustard to around 80 lakh hectares this year, under the Oilseeds Mission program. The mustard crop continues providing better prices to farmers than the MSP till now. India’s 2020-21 mustard crop may touch 100 lakh ton-level due to higher sowing and conducive weather. The sowing of oilseed crops has increased to 81.80 lakh hectares in the current Rabi whereas till this time last year, it was sown only in 77.79 lakh hectares. At the national level, the total production area of rabi crops increased to 620.71 lakh hectare, compared to 603.15 lakh hectare to 17.56 lakh hectare or 2.91 percent and the general average area from 620.27 lakh hectare to 44 thousand hectare in the same period last year. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 6500 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.62% to settled at 30380 while prices down -107 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 5306 and below same could see a test of 5256 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5438, a move above could see prices testing 5520.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 5256-5520.

* Mustard seed prices dropped as pressure seen after update that year on year, the planted area of mustard has increased by 6.7 percent approximately. 

* The mustard sowing was excellent this year and production is expected to be better with favorable weather.

* The arrival of new crops has started increasing in the mandis.

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 6500 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric​​​​​​​      

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.3% at 7326 on continuous profit booking as the arrival of turmeric in the Nizamabad yard has doubled. Prices rallied in recent session due to the possibility of 25 percent crop loss in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. Even in Sangli district of Maharashtra, the crop has been affected. There are expectation of decrease in Turmeric sown area in the kharif sowing season 2020 across Nizamabad and Marathwada regions. Covid-19 raised expectations regarding the consumption of turmeric as a body immune enhancer, but it did not last long. Poor quality of arrivals is another reason for the drop in demand. Therefore, many traders in Erode started buying turmeric from the markets of Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra as the prices were low there. Despite 2% freight, they are saving 5% on costs. Apprehensions are there that water logging and higher moisture due to recent rains in October in major Turmeric growing regions of Telangana, Maharashtra, Karnataka is likely to have adverse impact on overall productivity of Turmeric. Stockiest are getting active and started purchasing actively due to factors like decreasing sowing area and increasing demand. On the export front, India exported around 0.86 lakh tonnes of Turmeric in April-August, 2020 which is 51% higher than April-August, 2019 at 0.57 lakh tonnes. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7175 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.98% to settled at 8490 while prices down -22 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7240 and below same could see a test of 7152 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7408, a move above could see prices testing 7488.     

Trading Ideas:            

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7152-7488.

* Turmeric prices dropped on continuous profit booking as the arrival of turmeric in the Nizamabad yard has doubled

* Even in Sangli district of Maharashtra, the crop has been affected.

* Covid-19 raised expectations regarding the consumption of turmeric as a body immune enhancer, but it did not last long

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7175 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees.

Jeera​​​​​​​      

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.11% at 13670 due to constraints in supply as the end of season approaches. Support was also seen from the export side as exporters switched to Indian cumin seed this time. Weather conditions remain supportive and traders are avoiding buying large quantities in the wholesale markets before the new arrivals from next month. Demand for Indian Cumin has improved from UAE and Vietnam in recent months. Acreage under Jeera in leading producing state of Gujarat was at 4.64 lakh hectares (lh), marking a jump of around 11% compared to the same time last year which may not allow any significant price appreciation of cumin in coming weeks. Some support seen as a statement from the Spices Board said the export of spices, which had fetched ₹12,273.81 crores in the first half of the current fiscal between April and September, had grown by 19 per cent compared to the corresponding period last year. As India going to start it vaccination in the whole country from 16th January onwards it is raising the expectation of trader regarding the boost in demand of Jeera from export as well as from domestic which was dropped in 2020 due to Covid. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 13233.35 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.39% to settled at 1224 while prices up 15 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13610 and below same could see a test of 13545 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13740, a move above could see prices testing 13805.

Trading Ideas:            

* Jeera trading range for the day is 13545-13805.

* Jeera prices gained in recent sessions due to constraints in supply as the end of season approaches. 

* Support was also seen from the export side as exporters switched to Indian cumin seed this time.

* Demand for Indian Cumin has improved from UAE and Vietnam in recent months.

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 13233.35 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton​​​​​​​      

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.65% at 21590 following market expectation of yet another month of lower world cotton stock revision by USDA. Export prospects of Indian cotton has increased once again as domestic prices are a huge discount from overseas cotton prices, which may increase the attractiveness of Indian cotton in the global market. The 2020/21 U.S. cotton supply and demand forecasts show slightly higher exports and lower ending stocks relative to last month. The export forecast is raised 250,000 bales to 15.5 million based on a strong pace of shipments to date. Ending stocks are now estimated at 4.3 million bales, The USDA projects the upland cotton marketing year average price received by producers at 68 cents per pound, unchanged from its January estimate. The 2020/21 world cotton forecasts include higher production, consumption, and imports, led by changes in China. World production is projected 1.3 million bales higher this month, with China’s forecast raised by 1.5 million bales as the daily rates of both ginning and inspections in Xinjiang continue to show late-season strength, which is an unusual price behavior. Reports from China continue to suggest 2020/21 cotton area in Xinjiang was little changed from last year, but government classing data now indicates yields could be about 10 percent higher, while lower in Eastern China. In spot market, Cotton gained by 60 Rupees to end at 21500 Rupees. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -18.65% to settled at 3132 while prices up 140 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21470 and below same could see a test of 21360 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21670, a move above could see prices testing 21760.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Cotton trading range for the day is 21360-21760.

*  Cotton gains seen following market expectation of yet another month of lower world cotton stock revision by USDA.

*  Export prospects of Indian cotton has increased once again as domestic prices are a huge discount from overseas cotton prices

* The 2020/21 U.S. cotton supply and demand forecasts show slightly higher exports and lower ending stocks relative to last month.

*   In spot market, Cotton gained  by 60 Rupees to end at 21500 Rupees.

Chana     

Chana yesterday settled down by -0.15% at 4744 as the arrival of new gram is increasing gradually in the producing states. Old gram selling remains normal, keeping prices under pressure. In absence for the new crop, millers are buying gram as per need. During the Rabi season this year, about 112 lakh hectare area has been sown in the gram producing states, which was in 107.30 lakh hectare last year. Weather friendly is likely to increase productivity. Prices are running lower than MSP. The challenge of buying gram will be in front of the government. Selling of chana at the port was seen better. Chana arrivals are increasing in the mandis of Maharashtra. The pressure of new crop arrivals was seen on the markets. From next month, arrival of gram will also start in Rajasthan. In Australia due to the growth in the sowing area and favorable conditions of weather and rainfall, during the current marketing season of 2020-21, there are signs of a significant increase in the production of all the major pulses including gram, lentils, peas and faba beans etc. This time harvesting and preparation of the crop started a little late. As per sources except for parts of Queensland, all other major pulses growing areas of the country received good rainfall at the right time. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4707.15 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.25% to settled at 30850 while prices down -7 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4717 and below same could see a test of 4689 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4784, a move above could see prices testing 4823. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Chana trading range for the day is 4689-4823.

* Chana dropped as the arrival of new gram is increasing gradually in the producing states.

* The Ministry of Agriculture approved the purchase of 1,67,000 tonnes of chana under the price support scheme in Karnataka for the Rabi season 2020-21.

* The arrival of new goods of gram in India has started in some areas.

* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4707.15 Rupees per 100 kgs.

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