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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.37% at 44695 weighed down by a stronger dollar and higher U.S. Treasury yields. Treasury yields climbed after Fed Chair Jerome Powell told that 2021 was "going to be a very, very strong year in the most likely case." Sentiment in wider financial markets remained weak as investors grew wary following a new round of coronavirus restrictions in the euro zone. Gold's gains were kept in check by data showing the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits dropped to a one-year low last week, a day after U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expressed their confidence in the U.S. recovery. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped to 684 thousand in the week ended March 20th, its lowest since the pandemic hit the labor market in March 2020 and well below market expectations of 730 thousand, adding to signs of a gradual job recovery. China's net gold imports via Hong Kong fell 0.2% in February from the previous month, Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data showed. Net gold imports via Hong Kong to China, the world's top consumer of the metal, stood at 4.192 tonnes in February, compared with 4.2 tonnes in January, the data showed. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -16.31% to settled at 5988 while prices down -165 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 44522 and below same could see a test of 44348 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 44949, a move above could see prices testing 45202.  

Trading Ideas:            

* Gold trading range for the day is 44348-45202.

* Gold prices dropped weighed down by a stronger dollar and higher U.S. Treasury yields.

*  Sentiment in wider financial markets remained weak as investors grew wary following a new round of coronavirus restrictions in the euro zone.

* Data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits dropped to a one-year low last week

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.58% at 64869 as a stronger U.S. dollar overshadowed support from lower bond yields and worries that lockdowns across Europe would take a toll on the pace of economic recovery. Sentiment in wider financial markets remained weak as investors grew wary about the economic outlook following a new round of coronavirus restrictions in the euro zone and potential U.S. tax hikes. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits dropped to a one-year low last week as economic activity rebounds after weather-related disruptions in February. But the labor market is not out of the woods yet, with the weekly jobless claims report from the Labor Department showing a staggering 18.953 million people were still receiving unemployment checks in early March. It will likely take years for a full recovery from the pandemic's scarring. U.S. factory activity picked up in early March amid strong growth in new orders, but supply chain disruptions because of the COVID-19 pandemic continued to exert cost pressures for manufacturers, which could keep inflation fears in focus. Data firm IHS Markit said on Wednesday its flash U.S. manufacturing PMI increased to 59 in the first half of this month from a final reading 58.6 in February, when activity took a step back after a cold snap hit large parts of the country. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.96% to settled at 10725 while prices down -376 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 63788 and below same could see a test of 62706 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 65575, a move above could see prices testing 66280.     

Trading Ideas:            

* Silver trading range for the day is 62706-66280.

*  Silver prices dropped as a stronger U.S. dollar overshadowed support from lower bond yields and worries that lockdowns across Europe

* Sentiment in wider financial markets remained weak as investors grew wary about the economic outlook following a new round of coronavirus restrictions

*  The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits dropped to a one-year low last week

Crude oil      

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -4.32% at 4255 as fuel demand concerns re-emerged alongside fresh coronavirus pandemic lockdowns, trimming overnight gains spurred by the grounding of a giant container ship blocking crude shipments through the Suez Canal. The market was also helped by data showing U.S. gasoline demand improved and refinery run rates were picking. Given the persistent demand worries and falling prices, expectations are growing that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, together called OPEC+, will roll over their current supply curbs into May at a meeting scheduled for April 1. With oil prices making steady gains earlier this year, OPEC and other producers had hoped to ease output cuts, but industry sources say a fresh wave of lockdowns around the world threatens to tear up those plans. The OPEC+ group of producers, which are holding back millions of barrels of daily supply, surprised the market on March 4 by deciding to hold output broadly steady. U.S. crude and fuel stockpiles rose last week and refineries increased capacity use in their recovery from last month's unusual cold that hit southern U.S. states, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories rose by 1.9 million barrels in the week ended March 19 to 502.7 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 272,000-barrel drop. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.93% to settled at 3987 while prices down -192 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4164 and below same could see a test of 4074 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4381, a move above could see prices testing 4508.          

Trading Ideas:            

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4074-4508.

* Crude oil prices dropped as fuel demand concerns re-emerged alongside fresh coronavirus pandemic lockdowns

* However, the market was also helped by data showing U.S. gasoline demand improved and refinery run rates were picking.

* Given the persistent demand worries and falling prices, expectations are growing that OPEC+, will roll over their current supply curbs into May.

Nat.Gas​​​​​​​      

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 1.91% at 186.6 on a bigger than expected storage draw last week. That price increase came despite forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand next week than previously expected. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said U.S. utilities pulled 36 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended March 19. Utilities will likely add gas to storage this week, making last week's withdrawal the last of the 2020-2021 winter heating season. Last week's decrease cut stockpiles to 1.746 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 4.3% below the five-year average of 1.824 tcf for this time of year. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 91.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up sharply from a 28-month low of 86.5 bcfd in February, when extreme weather froze gas wells and pipes in Texas. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would ease from 99.5 bcfd this week to 96.8 bcfd next week as the weather turns milder. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants, meanwhile, averaged 10.7 bcfd so far in March. That compares with a four-month low of 8.5 bcfd in February, when extreme cold cut power and gas supplies to the facilities, and puts feedgas on track to match the monthly record of 10.7 bcfd in December. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -34.93% to settled at 3773 while prices up 3.5 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 182.4 and below same could see a test of 178.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 189.4, a move above could see prices testing 192.1.          

Trading Ideas:            

*  Natural gas trading range for the day is 178.1-192.1.

* Natural gas turned positive on a bigger than expected storage draw last week.

* That price increase came despite forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand next week than previously expected.

* EIA said U.S. utilities pulled 36 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended March 19.

Copper           

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.98% at 662.2 as the U.S. pandemic response continued to outpace Europe's, which has been hobbled by extended lockdowns and delayed vaccine rollouts. LME cash copper was at a $4.25 a tonne discount to the three-month contract, its biggest discount since Jan. 21, as inventories in LME warehouses have jumped 64% so far this month. Yangshan copper premium fell to $64 a tonne, its lowest since Jan. 12, indicating weakening demand for imported copper into top consumer China. China will maintain credit support continuity and stability for small and micro firms, the country's central bank said. The People's Bank of China, in a statement about a meeting with 24 banks in Beijing that took place on Monday, said it will maintain the policy stance that housing is for living and not for speculation. The central bank also said it will guide commercial banks to step up support for carbon emissions reduction financing. Workers at Antofagasta's Los Pelambres copper mine in Chile have accepted a contract offer and abandoned the threat of a strike, the union said. The global world refined copper market showed a 24,000 tonnes surplus in December, compared with a 93,000 tonnes deficit in November, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.51% to settled at 2930 while prices down -6.55 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 657.7 and below same could see a test of 653.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 667, a move above could see prices testing 671.7.       

Trading Ideas:            

* Copper trading range for the day is 653.1-671.7.

* Copper prices dropped as the U.S. pandemic response continued to outpace Europe's, which has been hobbled by extended lockdowns and delayed vaccine rollouts.

* China cbank to maintain credit support continuity, stability for small firms

*  LME cash copper was at a $4.25 a tonne discount to the three-month contract , its biggest discount since Jan. 21

Zinc      

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.02% at 217 after the dollar index extended gains after initial claims fell more than expected to a pre-pandemic low of 684K and GDP growth for Q4 was revised slightly higher to 4.3%. Early in the session, the greenback was already edging higher as investors weighed prospects of slower global growth against the overall outperformance of the US economy supported by the combination of ultra-easy monetary policy, unprecedented government spending, and a successful vaccine rollout. However, domestic zinc smelters have cut output more than expectations in March-April due to restrictions on energy consumption and tight zinc concentrate supply, while downstream demand has improved, which will weigh on zinc social inventories and support zinc prices. The global zinc market was oversupplied by 11,700 tonnes in January after a revised surplus of 23,500 tonnes in December, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. For 2020, the surplus in the roughly 13.5 million tonne a year market was 536,000 tonnes, according to the ILZSG. The third round of COVID-19 outbreak in Europe aggravated the market's cautious sentiment. Germany and the Netherlands successively announced an extension of the blockade period. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.46% to settled at 1743 while prices up 0.05 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 215.7 and below same could see a test of 214.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 218.1, a move above could see prices testing 219.1.         

Trading Ideas:            

* Zinc trading range for the day is 214.3-219.1.

* Zinc settled flat after the dollar index extended gains after initial claims fell more than expected to a pre-pandemic low of 684K

*  Further concerns over the world's recovery from the pandemic weighed on investor sentiment.

*  However, domestic zinc smelters have cut output more than expectations in March-April due to tight zinc concentrate supply

Nickel​​​​​​​      

Nickel yesterday settled up by 0.65% at 1180.5 as Global nickel market surplus shrank to 8,400 tonnes in January from a revised surplus of 14,700 tonnes in the previous month, data from the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) showed. Last year, the roughly 2.4 million tonne a year global market saw a surplus of 122,800 tonnes compared with a deficit of 32,200 tonnes in 2019, according to the Lisbon-based INSG. However upside seen limited amid concerns about a surge in COVID-19 cases across Europe and the negative impact of restrictive measures and vaccine delays LME nickel inventories climbed to their highest since July 2018 at 261,204 tonnes. Pressure seen due to concerns over a third COVID-19 wave in Europe, potential U.S. tax hikes and escalating tensions between the West and China sapped risk appetite. Data showed Germany Manufacturing PMI jumped to 66.6 in March of 2021 from 60.7 in February, well above forecasts of 60.8, flash estimates showed. The reading pointed to a record growth in factory activity amid a record output rise and rising sales to Asia (particularly China), Europe and the US. Many manufacturers highlighted difficulties keeping up with demand, which was reflected in an unprecedented rise in factory backlogs of work. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.52% to settled at 1778 while prices up 7.6 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1162.6 and below same could see a test of 1144.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1193.5, a move above could see prices testing 1206.4.          

Trading Ideas:            

*  Nickel trading range for the day is 1144.6-1206.4.

*  Nickel prices gained as Global nickel market surplus shrank to 8,400 tonnes in January from a revised surplus of 14,700 tonnes in the previous month

*  However upside seen limited amid concerns about a surge in COVID-19 cases across Europe and the negative impact of restrictive measures and vaccine delays

* LME nickel inventories climbed to their highest since July 2018 at 261,204 tonnes.

Aluminium      

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.25% at 177.25 after the Asian Development Bank warned that rising US yields could trigger currency and debt crises across Asia like past shocks that rocked emerging markets. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated to Congress that they had confidence in the US economy. Traders worried that Chinese efforts to reduce smelter pollution will restrict output and supply will fall short of demand. China accounts for around 60% of global aluminium output but the government is expected to curtail capacity growth, with Inner Mongolia ordering some smelter closures this month. Soaring shipping costs, booming demand and tight supplies of primary and scrap aluminium are likely to fuel further price rises, particularly in importing countries such as the United States and Europe. China Hongqiao Group, a big producer, will this year publish targets for lower carbon emissions and an action plan on how to reach them, its chairman said. Speculative investors are rebuilding a bullish position in LME aluminium with a net long equal to 7.8% of open contracts as of Thursday. On-warrant aluminium inventories in LME-registered warehouses surged from 1.1 million tonnes to a five-year high of 1.7 million tonnes earlier this month but have quickly fallen back to around 1.2 million tonnes. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 10.91% to settled at 1382 while prices down -0.45 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 176.1 and below same could see a test of 174.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 178, a move above could see prices testing 178.7. 

Trading Ideas:            

*   Aluminium trading range for the day is 174.9-178.7.

*  Aluminium dropped after the ADB warned that rising US yields could trigger currency and debt crises across Asia

* US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chair Powell indicated to Congress that they had confidence in the US economy.

* Speculative investors are rebuilding a bullish position in LME aluminium with a net long equal to 7.8% of open contracts

Mentha oil​​​​​​​      

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.59% at 957.4 on low level buying after prices dropped amid weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. Support also seen on the expectation that India’s fragrance industry which had been slow, now slowly gaining the positive momentum post the COVID unlock down. Headed towards a new decade, the fragrance industry has received a much needed boost with the acceptance of trendy dhoop sticks and dhoop cones which has seen an increased 20% demand day by day. The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030. Growing demand for aroma chemicals in the food & beverage and fragrance industry will underpin the growth of the market. Strict regulations in relation to artificial flavours are complimenting to the expansion of natural aroma chemicals in the food sector. Out of India's total mentha oil exports, nearly 55% goes to China while 16% goes to the US and around 5% goes to Singapore. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -17.6 Rupees to end at 1072.4 Rupees per 360 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 18.18% to settled at 39 while prices up 5.6 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 955.4 and below same could see a test of 953.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 959, a move above could see prices testing 960.6.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 953.4-960.6.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -17.6 Rupees to end at 1072.4 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha oil gains on low level buying after prices dropped amid weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India.

* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.

* The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030.

Soyabean       

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 1.65% at 5800 after reports that increasing feed demand has boosted China’s soybean import outlook. Support also seen after update in Madhya Pradesh thunderstorm and rain likely for next three to four days and weather will deteriorate again. Farmers are suffering a lot due to unseasonal rains. In many parts, the rains have caused heavy damage to many crops. The USDA estimates China’s soybean imports for the 2021-22 marketing year is expected to hit a record high of 100 million tonnes. Recovering feed demand is forecast to lift China’s soybean crush volume to 99 million tonnes in the 2021-22 marketing year compared to 97.5 million tonnes in the 2020-21 marketing year. The USDA reported export inspections of 489,405 tonnes of soybeans for the week ended March 18, down 10.8% from the week prior and 16.7% lower than the same week a year ago. China's soybean imports from Brazil fell sharply in the first two months of 2021 compared to the same period last year, customs data showed, as rain delayed some shipments from the top exporter. Improved crop weather in South America following recent dryness in Argentina and excessive rains in key parts of Brazil added pressure. New-crop futures have been limited by an expected increase in U.S. plantings this spring. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped -18 Rupees to 5936 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.21% to settled at 102005 while prices up 94 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 5718 and below same could see a test of 5635 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5852, a move above could see prices testing 5903.          

Trading Ideas:            

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 5635-5903.

* Soyabean prices gained after reports that Chinese soybean imports forecast to hit record high

* Support also seen after update in Madhya Pradesh thunderstorm and rain likely for next three to four days and weather will deteriorate again.

* The USDA estimates China’s soybean imports for the 2021-22 marketing year is expected to hit a record high of 100 million tonnes.

*  At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped  -18 Rupees to 5936 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil      

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -2.62% at 1248.9 on reports the government may lower import duty on edible oil to reduce prices, which are at record high levels currently, a senior government official told. Cabinet minister Piyush Goyal said in parliament government is watching edible oils and may take step to control high prices. India's vegetable oil imports dropped nearly 25% on year to around 838,607 tn in February. Export of oilmeals jumped 205% year-on-year in February to 393,309 tonne, compared with 128,761 tonne, according to data compiled by the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA). The overall export of oilmeals during April 2020 to February 2021 recovered sharply and stood at 3,358,649 tonne provisionally, against 2,256,614 tonne during the same period of the previous year, up by 49%, according to the association. The export of soybean meal jumped mainly because of better realisations, thanks to lesser supply from Argentina and Brazil, coupled with good demand of non-GMO soybean meal from the US and Europe, the association said in a statement. Support also seen due to tightening global supplies. However upside seen limited due to better crop weather in drought-hit South America. The U.S. soybean crush was well below trade expectations in February, sinking to the lowest in 17 months, according to data released by the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA). At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1296.5 Rupees per 10 kgs. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.86% to settled at 45770 while prices down -33.6 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1232 and below same could see a test of 1216 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1277, a move above could see prices testing 1306.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1216-1306.

* Ref soyoil prices dropped on reports the government may lower import duty on edible oil to reduce prices

* Cabinet minister Piyush Goyal said in parliament government is watching edible oils and may take step to control high prices.

*  India's vegetable oil imports dropped nearly 25% on year to around 838,607 tn in February,

*  At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1296.5 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil​​​​​​​      

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -1.82% at 1112.3 as demand concerns and expectations of higher production further weighed on the market. Pressure also seen after reports that cabinet minister Piyush Goyal said in parliament government is watching edible oils and may take step to control high prices. European Union palm oil imports in the 2020/21 season were at 3.97 million tonnes by March 21, from 4.13 million a year ago, data published by the European Commission showed. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for March 1-20 rose between 5% and 7% from the same period in February, cargo surveyors said. Favorable weather, increased use of fertilizer and surging prices are expected to push Indonesia's palm oil production and exports to record highs in 2021/22, U.S. Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service post in Jakarta said in a report. Palm oil supply is tight as end-February inventories fell more than expected while production declined to its lowest in five years. Traders are anticipating a double-digit growth in production after industry groups forecast a sharp rise in output during March 1-15. Malaysia has kept its April export duty for crude palm oil at 8%, though it raised the reference price, a circular on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board website showed. In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -1.2 Rupees to end at 1144.8 Rupees. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -19.61% to settled at 2567 while prices down -20.6 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1096.2 and below same could see a test of 1080.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1136.2, a move above could see prices testing 1160.1.           

Trading Ideas:            

* CPO trading range for the day is 1080.1-1160.1.

* Crude palm oil prices dropped as demand concerns and expectations of higher production further weighed on the market.

* Pressure also seen after reports that cabinet minister Piyush Goyal said in parliament government is watching edible oils and may take step to control high prices.

* March production is likely to increase between 25% and 30%, and the market is also expecting double-digit growth in April

* In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped  by -1.2 Rupees to end at 1144.8 Rupees.

Mustard Seed​​​​​​​      

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 0.26% at 5744 as COOIT and MOPA are expected to produce 89.50 lakh mustard throughout the country during the current Rabi season. Earlier according to the second advance production estimate of crop year 2020-21 released by the central government last month, mustard production in the country this year is 104.27 lakh tonnes. According to the assessment of the industry organization, Rajasthan, the country's largest mustard producing state, has a mustard crop on about 25 lakh hectares this year. The weather is favorable this year during the Rabi season and farmers taking interest in mustard cultivation has increased the area under sowing and the yield per hectare has also increased, so this year in the country Mustard records are expected to be produced. Uttar Pradesh is estimated to produce 1.5 million tonnes of mustard. Punjab and Haryana are expected to produce 10.50 lakh tons of mustard, 10 lakh tons in Madhya Pradesh, 5 lakh tons in West Bengal, 4 lakh tons in Gujarat and about 10 lakh tons of mustard in the eastern and other states of the country. Canada’s Canola seed exports to China are strong despite China continuing to block Canada’s two largest canola exporters, and China maintaining a restrictive dockage requirement of one percent on its canola imports. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -20 Rupees to end at 5700 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.03% to settled at 42290 while prices up 15 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 5704 and below same could see a test of 5665 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5778, a move above could see prices testing 5813.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 5665-5813.

*  Mustard prices gained as India's 2020-21 mustard seed production seen at 89.50 lakh tons

* Rajasthan, has a mustard crop on about 25 lakh hectares this year.

* Canada’s total canola, production in 2021-22 is forecast to fall on reduced processing of canola seed due to lower seed supply.

* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -20 Rupees to end at 5700 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric       

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 4% at 8268 as high domestic demand, coupled with fears of lower output, have fuelled turmeric prices. Prices also remained supported amid crop quality concerns and sharp surge in demand. Due to climatic adversities and poor quality, turmeric growers are looking at lower yields. Area under turmeric cultivation was expected to go up, but that did not happen, and prices are firming up on the back of strong domestic and export demand. Turmeric consumption had surged during the whole of 2020 as people resorted to it an immunity booster against Covid-19. Prices also seen supported amid expectation of decrease in Turmeric sown area in the kharif sowing season 2020 across Nizamabad and Marathwada regions. Covid-19 raised expectations regarding the consumption of turmeric as a body immune enhancer, but it did not last long. Poor quality of arrivals is another reason for the drop in demand. Therefore, many traders in Erode started buying turmeric from the markets of Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra as the prices were low there. Despite 2% freight, they are saving 5% on costs. Apprehensions are there that water logging and higher moisture due to recent rains in October in major Turmeric growing regions of Telangana, Maharashtra, Karnataka is likely to have adverse impact on overall productivity of Turmeric. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7594.75 Rupees dropped -28.1 Rupees. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.02% to settled at 7750 while prices up 318 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7968 and below same could see a test of 7668 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8418, a move above could see prices testing 8568.          

Trading Ideas:            

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7668-8568.

* Turmeric prices gained as high domestic demand, coupled with fears of lower output, have fuelled turmeric prices.

* Prices also remained supported amid crop quality concerns and sharp surge in demand.

* Due to climatic adversities and poor quality, turmeric growers are looking at lower yields.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7594.75 Rupees dropped -28.1 Rupees.

Jeera ​​​​​​​      

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.03% at 14820 due to rise in arrivals seen in the market ahead of Holi and Financial closure, as mandis will remained closed in Gujarat and Rajasthan, and will re-open only after April 2. The supply of cumin in the current year will be good for the entire year due to carry forward 17 to 20 lakh bags. Also the yield of cumin is normal, there is no major deficiency in it. Due to high amount of heat in the atmosphere, the arrival of cumin will be faster this year, but the picture of arrival of cumin coming from behind is still uncertain. The production of cumin is estimated to decline by 10 to 15% and the crop of zora will not exceed 75 lakh sacks. In the current year, Gujarat's cumin crop has good color quality, but the weight of yield cumin seeds is low. Whereas in Rajasthan's cumin crop, the color quality, weight and weight of cumin seeds is very much visible. Recently in the Merta Mandi of Rajasthan, there was an arrival of 20 thousand sacks in a single day because the arrival of cumin is accelerated due to heat. At one time the ratio of cumin arrivals will be as much as 90 lakh sacks, but in reality it will be the effect of heat. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 75.45 Rupees to end at 14316.65 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.19% to settled at 4362 while prices down -5 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 14720 and below same could see a test of 14625 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14890, a move above could see prices testing 14965.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Jeera trading range for the day is 14625-14965.

* Jeera ended with losses due to rise in arrivals seen in the market ahead of Holi and financial closure, as mandis will remained closed in Gujarat and Rajasthan

* The supply of cumin in the current year will be good for the entire year due to carry forward 17 to 20 lakh bags

*  In the Merta Mandi of Rajasthan, there was an arrival of 20 thousand sacks in a single day as arrival is accelerated due to heat.

*  In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 75.45 Rupees to end at 14316.65 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton       

Cotton yesterday settled down by -2.04% at 20660 after Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) reduced the selling price of cotton as a “one-time correction.” Cotton farmers in the country have taken advantage of higher global price for the natural fibre this season (October 2020-September 2021), resulting in at least 80 per cent of the production being sold till now. As a result, most of the ginning mills in north and western parts of the country that process kapas (raw cotton) into ginned cotton are likely to shut operations from April this year. According to an estimate by the Cotton Association of India, a body of traders, arrivals this year since October 1 were 298.89 lakh bales (of 170 kg). The arrivals are against CAI’s projection of the cotton crop production at 358.50 lakh bales against 360 lakh bales last season. The Committee on Cotton Production and Consumption (CCPC), a body representing all stakeholders in the textile industry including government officials, has estimated this season’s crop at 371 lakh bales (358.50 lakh bales last season). Arrivals have been higher despite record carryover stocks from last season. While CAI has pegged the carryover stocks at 115 lakh bales, the CCPC has estimated it at 97.95 lakh bales. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -40 Rupees to end at 21590 Rupees. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 7.71% to settled at 8302 while prices down -430 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 20360 and below same could see a test of 20060 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21060, a move above could see prices testing 21460.

Trading Ideas:            

* Cotton trading range for the day is 20060-21460.

* Cotton prices dropped after Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) reduced the selling price of cotton as a “one-time correction.”

* Cotton farmers in the country have taken advantage of higher global price resulting in at least 80 per cent of the production being sold till now.

* According to an estimate by CAI, arrivals this year since October 1 were 298.89 lakh bales.

* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -40 Rupees to end at 21590 Rupees.

Chana       

Chana yesterday settled up by 0.88% at 4951 as exports continues, the export of Kabali Chana is now being done indiscriminately from Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka. Support also seen as supply in domestic markets is not equal to weak production. Further the old stock has already been disposed of. Kabali chana production is estimated to be close to 1.6 million tonnes, while the country's annual domestic consumption is 28 lakh tonnes, and there is no scope for imports, which is expected to increase the market further. There are still no more than 21-22 trucks coming on Lawrence Road, while 40-41 trucks were running daily during these days last year. However, government procurement will start from April, making further trade at these prices profitable. Depending on the new policy of government, the production of peas is expected to increase from 2 lakh tonnes to around 4.5 lakh tonnes. Purchases were made by some big companies at the beginning of the season, but now their purchase has also stopped, the government should completely remove the MRP 200 rupees per kg condition for the next financial year. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -50 Rupees to end at 4850 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.95% to settled at 67660 while prices up 43 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4910 and below same could see a test of 4869 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4981, a move above could see prices testing 5011.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Chana trading range for the day is 4869-5011.

* Chana prices gained as exports continues, the export of Kabali Chana is now being done indiscriminately from Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka.

* Support also seen as supply in domestic markets is not equal to weak production and the old stock has already been disposed of.

*  Depending on the new policy of government, the production of peas is expected to increase from 2 lakh tonnes to around 4.5 lakh tonnes.

* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -50 Rupees to end at 4850 Rupees per 100 kgs.

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