IGI Logo

Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.46% at 47864 as prices eased in a tight range as investors squared positions before U.S. jobs data later this week that could shed more light on labour market health and potentially influence the Federal Reserve’s tapering timeline. Data showed U.S. manufacturing activity grew at a slower pace in July for the second straight month, pressuring the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields. Investors now await July’s U.S. non-farm payroll numbers, due on Friday, following dovish commentary from Fed Chief Jerome Powell last week. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the central bank could start to reduce its support by October if the next two monthly jobs reports each show employment rising by 800,000 to 1 million, as he expects. A Fed rate increase will dull gold’s appeal as it translates into a higher opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding precious metal. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its index of national factory activity fell to 59.5 last month, the lowest reading since January, from 60.6 in June. China's gold output fell 10.18% year-on-year in the first half of 2021 to 152.75 tonnes, as production was affected by safety inspections following some mine accidents, the China Gold Association said. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.05% to settled at 12599 while prices down -222 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 47788 and below same could see a test of 47713 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 47964, a move above could see prices testing 48065.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 47713-48065.
* Gold prices eased in a tight range as investors squared positions before U.S. jobs data later this week
* Data showed U.S. manufacturing activity grew at a slower pace in July for the second straight month, pressuring the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields.
* Investors now await July’s U.S. non-farm payroll numbers, due on Friday, following dovish commentary from Fed Chief Jerome Powell last week.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.04% at 67914 as prices remained in range as the dollar held steady amid growing concerns over Delta variant of coronavirus cases. The dollar traded in a tight range as the world continues to combat the biggest health crisis. The spread of the Delta variant from the mainland's coast to China's inland cities prompted authorities to implement strict counter epidemic measures. Meanwhile, a top Fed official said the U.S. central bank could start to reduce its support for the economy by October if the next two monthly jobs reports each show employment rising by 800,000 to 1 million. "We should go early and go fast, in order to make sure we're in position to raise rates in 2022, if we have to," Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said. New orders for U.S.-made goods increased more than expected in June, while business spending on equipment was solid, pointing to sustained strength in manufacturing even as spending is shifting away from goods to services. The Commerce Department said that factory orders rose 1.5% in June after advancing 2.3% in May. The Institute for Supply Management reported that manufacturing activity grew at a slower pace in July for the second straight month as raw material shortages persisted. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.61% to settled at 8421 while prices up 25 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 67444 and below same could see a test of 66975 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 68221, a move above could see prices testing 68529.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 66975-68529.
* Silver prices remained in range as the dollar held steady amid growing concerns over Delta variant of coronavirus cases.
* The dollar traded in a tight range as the world continues to combat the biggest health crisis.
* A top Fed official said the U.S. central bank could start to reduce its support for the economy by October.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -1.13% at 5238 as investors continue to worry over the impact of the spread of the coronavirus delta variant especially in the US and China. OPEC oil output rose in July to its highest since April 2020, a survey found, as the group further eased production curbs under a pact with its allies and top exporter Saudi Arabia phased out a voluntary supply cut. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has pumped 26.72 million barrels per day (bpd), the survey found, up 610,000 bpd from June's revised estimate. Output has risen every month since June 2020 apart from in February. OPEC and allies, known as OPEC+, have been unwinding record output cuts agreed in April 2020, as demand and the economy recover. With oil prices rising to a 2 1/2-year high, OPEC+ decided this month on further hikes from August. While coronavirus cases continue to climb globally, analysts said higher vaccination rates would limit the need for the harsh lockdowns that gutted demand during the peak of the pandemic last year. Money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to July 27, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.91% to settled at 5261 while prices down -60 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 5138 and below same could see a test of 5039 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5343, a move above could see prices testing 5449.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 5039-5449.
* Crude oil prices dropped as investors continue to worry over the impact of the spread of the coronavirus delta variant especially in the US and China.
* OPEC July output rises 610,000 bpd from June
* Compliance with OPEC+ cut pledges slips to 115%

Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 1.52% at 300 as forecasts continued to signal hotter weather over the coming weeks than previously expected, which tends to increase gas demand for cooling. Data provider Refinitiv projected U.S. demand, including exports, will rise from an average of 91.2 bcfd this week to 95.2 bcfd next week. But that is still slightly below last week's 95.7 bcfd. Flynn also expects U.S. LNG exports to stay "exceedingly" strong and U.S. supply to remain weak, leading to a tight market this year, which should support prices. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged 10.8 bcfd in July, up from 10.1 bcfd in June but still below April's 11.5-bcfd record. Refinitiv said average U.S. production would remain unchanged at 92.2 billion cubic feet per day next week from this week. That is still well below November's all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast utilities added 36 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended July 23. U.S. natural gas prices in 2021 at the Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana will likely rise to their highest since 2018 as governments ease lockdowns and demand rises faster than producers can restore output shut during the 2020 coronavirus-linked price drop. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 35.78% to settled at 14681 while prices up 4.5 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 293.7 and below same could see a test of 287.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 303.6, a move above could see prices testing 307.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 287.5-307.3.
* Natural gas gained as forecasts continued to signal hotter weather over the coming weeks than previously expected.
* EIA forecast utilities added 36 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended July 23.
* U.S. natural gas prices in 2021 at the Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana will likely rise to their highest since 2018

Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.69% at 736.65 as a surge of the Delta coronavirus variant across the world raised doubts of a sustainable global economic recovery. A dampened global growth outlook would reduce demand for industrial metals that are used across a wide range of sectors including manufacturing, construction and transportation. Meanwhile, U.S. manufacturing activity grew at a slower pace in July for the second straight month as raw material shortages persisted, though there are signs of some easing in supply-chain bottlenecks. Peruvian residents who have been blocking a road used by the Chinese-owned Las Bambas copper mine for the past week suspended their action after the country's prime minister promised to resolve the conflict between them and the company. Yangshan copper premium rose to its highest since April 7 of $52 a tonne, indicating rising demand for importing the metal into China, as copper stockpiles in China's bonded warehouses have been dropping for three weeks straight. Workers at Chile's Andina copper mine operated by state-owned Codelco turned down the firm's offer for a new collective contract, paving the way for a potential strike at the facility. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.07% to settled at 4618 while prices down -5.1 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 729.8 and below same could see a test of 722.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 744.3, a move above could see prices testing 751.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 722.8-751.8.
* Copper declined as a surge of the Delta coronavirus variant across the world raised doubts of a sustainable global economic recovery
* Yangshan copper premium rose to its highest since April 7 of $52 a tonne, indicating rising demand for importing the metal into China
* Workers at Codelco's Andina copper mine turn down contract offer, gird for strike

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -1.13% at 245.15 as the previous released government reserves started to influence the prices, and COVID kept spreading. Fed governor said that the policymakers would announce a plan to cut back the Fed's asset-purchase program in September, if the next jobs reports continue on-trend, and were already taking extra measures to constrain debt ceiling. Hawkish sentiment emerged. The market was concerned that the Delta mutant may bring more confirmed cases. From the fundamentals, power restriction may become normal, and the supply side will be influenced anyway, thus underpin the zinc prices. LME cash zinc has moved to a premium of $1.50 over the three month contract, the first time in over a year it has been more expensive, indicating tighter supply conditions. Data showed that social inventories of zinc ingots across seven major markets increased 5400 mt from last Friday July 30 or 5,700 mt from last Monday July 26 to 121400 mt. Shanghai inventories increased due to added arrivals and decreased purchasing demand after downstream companies taking in the first release of government reserves. Inventories increase in Guangdong was more obvious as a result of added arrivals and depressed demand. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -31.07% to settled at 1511 while prices down -2.8 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 243.6 and below same could see a test of 242 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 247, a move above could see prices testing 248.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 242-248.8.
* Zinc prices dropped as the previous released government reserves started to influence the prices, and COVID kept spreading.
* From the fundamentals, power restriction may become normal, and the supply side will be influenced anyway, thus underpin the zinc prices.
* Fed governor said that the policymakers would announce a plan to cut back the Fed's asset-purchase program in September
 

Nickel 

Nickel yesterday settled down by -0.57% at 1469.9 as data signaled a slower growth in the manufacturing industry of China and US, pressuring the market amid worsened pandemic. New orders for U.S.-made goods increased more than expected in June, while business spending on equipment was solid, pointing to sustained strength in manufacturing even as spending is shifting away from goods to services. The Commerce Department said that factory orders rose 1.5% in June after advancing 2.3% in May. Orders soared 18.4% on a year-on-year basis. Demand pivoted towards goods during the COVID-19 pandemic as millions of Americans were cooped up at home, boosting manufacturing, which accounts for 11.9% of the U.S. economy. China’s July manufacturing PMI decreased from 50.9 in June to 50.4, lower than expectation. NBS explained that the broad maintenance and extreme weathers like high temperature and flood has hampered industry products market amid weakened expansion. German retail sales increased much more than expected in June following an easing of COVID-19 restrictions, supporting hopes for a consumer-driven recovery in Europe’s largest economy over the summer months. U.S. manufacturing continued to grow in July, though the pace slowed for the second straight month as spending rotates back to services from goods and shortages of raw materials persist. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.68% to settled at 1819 while prices down -8.5 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1456.2 and below same could see a test of 1442.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1480.4, a move above could see prices testing 1490.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1442.4-1490.8.
* Nickel prices dropped as data signaled a slower growth in the manufacturing industry of China and US, pressuring the market amid worsened pandemic.
* New orders for U.S.-made goods increased more than expected in June
* China’s July manufacturing PMI decreased from 50.9 in June to 50.4, lower than expectation.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.67% at 206.55 on profit booking as the market was concerned that the Delta mutant may bring more confirmed cases. From the fundamentals, aluminium supply was still disrupted. The production restriction in south-east China and the Inner Mongolia became stricter, and demand was not weaker than expected. While transportation in Henan will still be disrupted in the short term, sustaining de-stocking of social inventories, offering support to aluminium prices. The repeated COVID in China may bring potential risks to the whole industry chain in terms of raw materials, transportation and production. From the macro front, president of Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis warned that the Delta mutant might hinder the recovery of US labour market. While the president of Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis advised that the Fed shall shrink asset purchasing from autumn to March, 2022 as inflation was higher than expected. In China, July manufacturing PMI decreased from 50.9 in June to 50.4, lower than economists’ expectation. NBS explained that the broad maintenance and extreme weathers like high temperature and flood has hampered industry products market amid weakened expansion. Last week’s Fed meeting settled to maintain the interest rate unchanged, and Fed chairman Powell also stated that it was not time to tighten the monetary policy. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -18.11% to settled at 2645 while prices down -1.4 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 205.9 and below same could see a test of 205.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 207.5, a move above could see prices testing 208.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 205.1-208.3.
* Aluminium prices dropped on profit booking as the market was concerned that the Delta mutant may bring more confirmed cases.
* From the fundamentals, aluminium supply was still disrupted.
* The production restriction in south-east China and the Inner Mongolia became stricter, and demand was not weaker than expected.

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.23% at 951.8 on short covering after prices dropped as average yield in Barabanki is improved by 5-6 kgs per acre due to better weather. Pressure seen arrivals likely to increase due to favourable weather conditions. Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days. Last week, prices rallied. The Lucknow-based Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants estimates that this adverse effect of rains on the crop is expected to reduce production by 30% in the last two weeks. The crop is prone to rain because the leaves of the crop start falling due to waterlogging in the field. Most of the farmers have planted Mentha crops and this rain is not less than acid for 50 percent of Mentha crop. Last month, support seen due to the rotting of the crop due to stagnant water in the field. The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting. Due to drowning in the water, the rows have started to wither. With the harvesting of the crop, oil extraction work has also started. However upside seen limited In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 3.2 Rupees to end at 1076.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.5% to settled at 1086 while prices up 2.2 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 943.9 and below same could see a test of 935.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 957.2, a move above could see prices testing 962.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 935.9-962.5.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 3.2 Rupees to end at 1076.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil gained on short covering after prices dropped as average yield in Barabanki improved
* Pressure seen arrivals likely to increase due to favourable weather conditions.
* The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting.
 

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 0.18% at 9545 amid crop damage due to heavy rain have forced many soyabean farmers in Madhya Pradesh to shift to paddy cultivation this season, which may result in lower than normal production of the oilseed crop for the third time in a row. Soyabean is the largest oilseed crop of the kharif season. Madhya Pradesh was the biggest producer of soyabean until 2018-19, when the output was close to 67 lakh tonne. However, production dropped to 49 lakh tonne in 2019-20 and marginally improved to about 51 lakh tonne the following year — much below the normal production of 65 lakh tonne. Maharashtra emerged as the biggest producer with about 62 lakh tonne in 2020-21. Sowing area under soyabean in Madhya Pradesh was at 44.7 lakh hectare as of July 23, down 19% from the year-ago level, while paddy acreage was 44% higher at 16.8 lakh hectare in the same period. Urad area was down by over 30% at 9.37 lakh hectare. Madhya Pradesh has received 2% above normal rain so far since June 1, largely because precipitation was 36% above average in the first month of the June-September monsoon season. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped -169 Rupees to 9881 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -9.42% to settled at 13755 while prices up 17 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 9358 and below same could see a test of 9171 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 9791, a move above could see prices testing 10037.

Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 9171-10037.
* Soyabean prices seen supported as Soyabean output seen shrinking as Madhya Pradesh farmers shift to paddy
* In Rajasthan, Soyabean sowing is done in 1002.94 thousand hectares down by -2.9% compared to last year
* USDA reported that the condition of crops unexpectedly deteriorated last week.
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped  -169 Rupees to 9881 Rupees per 100 kgs.
 

Soyaoil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -0.92% at 1383.2 as about 164.43 lakh ha area coverage has been reported compared to normal of corresponding week (159.16 lakh ha). Thus 5.28 lakh ha more area has covered compared to normal of corresponding week. However downside seen limited prices seen supported by lingering concerns over tight supply. China raised its forecast on imports of edible oils in 2020/21 marketing year, on increase of palm oil and sunflower oil shipments, the country's agriculture ministry said. China's 2020/21 edible oils imports were seen at 10.23 million tonnes, up 900,000 tonnes from last month's forecast, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said in its monthly crop report. Estimates on output, planting acreage and imports of corn, soybeans and cotton in the 2021/22 year remain unchanged from a month ago, according to the ministry. China's soybean acreage in 2021/22 year was seen at 9.347 million hectares, down 5.4% from 9.882 million hectares in the previous year, according to the report. India has slashed the base import price of palm oil and soyoil, the government said in a statement, as prices fell in the overseas market. India exported 5.31 lakh tonnes of oilmeals in the first two months of the fiscal 2021-22 against 3.50 lakh tonnes in the same period a year ago, recording a growth of 52 per cent. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1405.9 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.55% to settled at 25470 while prices down -12.8 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1373 and below same could see a test of 1363 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1399, a move above could see prices testing 1415.

Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1363-1415.
* Ref soyoil prices dropped as overall area for oilseed covered to 164.43 lakh ha area more by 5.28 lakh ha.
* However downside seen limited prices seen supported by lingering concerns over tight supply.
* China's 2020/21 edible oils imports were seen at 10.23 million tonnes, up 900,000 tonnes from last month's forecast
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1405.9 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -0.37% at 1114 after Malaysia’s data showed that export shipments fell in July. However downside seen limited helped by lingering concerns over tight production. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association estimated July production to climb 2% on the month. But concerns over smaller-than-usual yields linger as plantations grapple with a labour shortage amid the seasonal higher production months. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for July fell 6.3% to 1.45 million tonnes from June, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for July fell 5.2 percent to 1,440,096 tonnes from 1,519,180 tonnes shipped during June, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said. Malaysian palm oil production for July is expected to be lower on the month on lower oil yields and labour shortages at palm plantations. Considering the first half of the year domestic crude palm oil output is already 8% lower when compared with the same period last year, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board. Meantime, imports to India and China are falling due to high prices while demand for Indonesian oil is growing in India on higher supply levels and improved discounts. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 4.5 Rupees to end at 1151.9 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.85% to settled at 5212 while prices down -4.1 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1104.8 and below same could see a test of 1095.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1126.6, a move above could see prices testing 1139.1.

Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 1095.5-1139.1.
* Crude palm oil prices dropped after Malaysia’s data showed that export shipments fell in July.
* However downside seen limited helped by lingering concerns over tight production.
* The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association estimated July production to climb 2% on the month.
* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 4.5 Rupees to end at 1151.9 Rupees.

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 1.51% at 7734 as production in Canada in 2021 expected to drop by 1.7 million tons to 16.9 million tons. Mustard arrivals in its major producing states i.e. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat improved. As per sources, estimated mustard crushing during June 2021 stood at 6 lakh tonnes, lower by 33% compared to 9 lakh tonnes last month it is also lower by 25% against 8 lakh tonnes in June 2020. Further negative crush margin for mustard seed also discouraged crushing activity and further reduced buying interest for mustard seed. India’s Rapeseed meal exports fell by 46% to 0.97 lakh tonnes on M-o-M basis during May-2021. However mustard meal exports were higher by 66% as compared to same period last year. In 2022-22 marketing year (Mar-Feb), total arrivals reported were up by 309% as compared to the arrivals during the corresponding period last year. As per USDA in its June-21 update, World Mustard seed production for 2021-22 is estimated to increase by 4% at 741 lakh tonnes. The beginning stock estimated to fall by 25% to 57 lakh tonnes. Total consumption estimated to remain same around last year and ending stocks are also estimated to be lower by 1% at 57 lakh tonnes. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -60 Rupees to end at 7840 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.72% to settled at 26580 while prices up 115 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 7658 and below same could see a test of 7583 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7779, a move above could see prices testing 7825.

Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 7583-7825.
* Mustard seed gained as production in Canada in 2021 expected to drop by 1.7 million tons to 16.9 million tons.
* Mustard arrivals in its major producing states i.e. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat improved.
* In 2022-22 marketing year (Mar-Feb), total arrivals reported were up by 309% as compared to the arrivals during the corresponding period last year.
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices dropped -60 Rupees to end at 7840 Rupees per 100 kg.
 

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 1.19% at 7302 as turmeric crops were severely damaged in Parbhani and Hingole due to heavy rains. Support also seen on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. Further there is expectation of increase in Turmeric sowings in some areas were the key factors that dented market sentiments in the month of June. As the lockdown restrictions were eased in the month of June, the key Turmeric growing states, including Maharashtra and Telangana reported noticeable increase in mandi arrivals, which augmented physical market supplies and pressurized prices. Mandi arrivals of Turmeric, at all-India level, more than doubled in June 2021 compared to the previous month supported by substantial increase in arrivals in Maharashtra and Telangana. Mandi arrivals had remained sluggish in April and May due to closure of mandis in many regions on account of festival season and Covid related lockdown restrictions. According to the statistics of the Department of Commerce, Government of India, the highest number of 1.84 lakh tonnes of turmeric was exported during the last financial year 2020-21. The export of turmeric is highest in the months of May, June and July. After the relaxation of the lockdown in some states, spot prices have started increasing in Erode and Nanded mandis last week. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7332.95 Rupees gained 52.95 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.43% to settled at 9310 while prices up 86 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7176 and below same could see a test of 7048 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7376, a move above could see prices testing 7448.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7048-7448.
* Turmeric prices seen supported as turmeric crops were severely damaged due to heavy rains.
* Support also seen on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh.
* Further there is expectation of increase in Turmeric sowings in some areas
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7332.95 Rupees gained 52.95 Rupees.
 

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.11% at 13265 due to higher availability with farmers and general demand from stockists. Pressure also seen due to the uncertainty of the lockdown over a possible third wave of Covid and low demand from the hotel industry. Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level more than doubled in June 2021 compared to the previous month following increased arrivals in Gujarat as well as Rajasthan. As per preliminary estimates suggested that carryover stocks of Jeera are likely to be around of about 20-25 Lakh bags (of 55 Kg each), i.e., 1.10 to 1.30 lakh tonnes which are higher than usual range of 7-12 Lakh bags. However, after accounting for wastage, and increased exports, market participants are expecting carryover stocks to be around 0.65-0.70 lakh tonnes. It may be noted that during the FY 2020-21 Jeera exports stood at 2.98 lakh tonnes, 39% higher over the previous year. As per sources, export demand for Jeera is expected to recover as close competitors of India in terms of exporting Jeera, viz., Turkey and Syria may not supply much to the world due to lower exportable surplus. It has been reported that production in Syria is likely to be lower because of political instability and in Turkey is also likely to be lower compared to previous year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 83.8 Rupees to end at 13725 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.28% to settled at 5037 while prices up 15 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13185 and below same could see a test of 13110 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13310, a move above could see prices testing 13360.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 13110-13360.
* Jeera settled flat due to higher availability with farmers and general demand from stockists
* Pressure also seen due to the uncertainty of the lockdown over a possible third wave of Covid and low demand from the hotel industry.
* As per preliminary estimates suggested that carryover stocks of Jeera are likely to be around of about 20-25 Lakh bags
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 83.8 Rupees to end at 13725 Rupees per 100 kg.
 

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -1.36% at 26910 as a pickup in late cotton sowing mainly in the southern States such as Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, could help bridge the gap in acreages witnessed, so far, in the ongoing kharif season. CAI expect sowing to go on till August-end across various states including Andhra, Telangana, Gujarat, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu as the prevailing higher prices will attract farmers’ interest. Cotton prices are ruling higher at ₹57,000 per candy (356 kgs), despite season-ending stocks being projected at 95 lakh bales for the season to September. According to the Agriculture Ministry’s estimates, cotton acreages till July 29 was 110.73 lakh hectares (lh) compared with the previous year’s 121.25 lh, lower by 8.68 per cent. In North India, the acreage is 17 per cent lower, while in central India the deficit is 5.33 per cent. In the South, the acreage is lower by 12.6 per cent. The lower acreage is largely attributed to delayed rains, but trade expects sowing to go on till end August. However, yield and output will largely depend on rains during September-October. Last year, a crop of 75 lakh bales was expected in Telangana, but heavy rains during October impacted the crop badly reducing it to about 45 lakh bales, sources said. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -150 Rupees to end at 27240 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.9% to settled at 5486 while prices down -370 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 26680 and below same could see a test of 26460 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 27280, a move above could see prices testing 27660.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 26460-27660.
* Cotton prices dropped as late sowing may bridge gap in cotton acreage
* CAI expect sowing to go on till August-end across various states including Andhra, Telangana, Gujarat, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu
* In Gujarat, Cotton sowing is done in 22,22,372 hectares, up by 0.28% from 2020.
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -150 Rupees to end at 27240 Rupees.

Chana

Chana yesterday settled down by -0.08% at 5050 continuing its weak trend as India is likely to receive an average amount of rainfall in August and September, the state-run weather office said, raising expectations of higher crop yields in Asia's third-biggest economy, which relies heavily on the vast farm sector. "As per most parameters, we expect monsoon rains to be normal in August and September this year," Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of the state-run India Meteorological Department (IMD), told a news conference. All over Pulses crop area seen at about 108.87 lakh ha compared to normal of corresponding week (110.68 lakh ha). Thus 2.81 lakh ha less area has been covered compared to normal of corresponding week. However downside seen limited as pulses crops in Maharashtra may be affected as these are grown mainly in Marathwada and Vidarbha regions where the monsoon rainfall so far was 59% and 11% above LPA, respectively. Waterlogged field for a long time might cut yield, as pulses don’t need continuous rains. Area under pulses continues to remain low in the current kharif season, raising the spectre of the government resorting to trade-restrictive measures like imposition of stock holding again in November-December to check of prices of these eatables. In Delhi spot market, chana gained by 1.8 Rupees to end at 4983.45 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.72% to settled at 78240 while prices down -4 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5018 and below same could see a test of 4986 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5087, a move above could see prices testing 5124.

Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 4986-5124.
* Chana prices dropped continuing its weak trend as India is likely to receive an average amount of rainfall in August and September
* All over Pulses crop area seen at about 108.87 lakh ha compared to normal of corresponding week 110.68 lakh ha.
* The Centre reduced the import duty on masur dal to zero
* In Delhi spot market, chana gained  by 1.8 Rupees to end at 4983.45 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views. Click Here For Disclaimer