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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.09% at 48094 as concerns grew over a slowing economic recovery due to a surge in Covid-19 cases. In Asia, some countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and parts of Japan are struggling to curb the spread of the Delta variant, prompting authorities to relaunch lockdown measures.

The highly contagious delta variant is also growing in the US accounting now for more than 5% of COVID-19 cases. In Europe, England lifted most coronavirus restrictions on Monday but more than half a million people had been told to self-isolate. Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said many U.S. economic sectors faced rapidly rising prices and were struggling to adjust to reopening after the shutdown.

"Basically, what's happening is the U.S. economy went through a very abrupt shutdown a year ago," Kashkari told. "And now it's going through a reopening, and you're seeing many sectors of the economy struggle to make that adjustment." Kashkari said he agreed with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that the economy will return to a more normal pricing environment once it adjusts to the reopening. Gold in India was sold at a discount for the first time in nearly a month as a jump in local prices curbed purchases, while buyers in other major Asian hubs were also put off by higher prices.

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -8.7% to settled at 6319 while prices up 41 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 47838 and below same could see a test of 47581 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 48294, a move above could see prices testing 48493.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 47581-48493.
* Gold prices recovered as concerns grew over a slowing economic recovery due to a surge in Covid-19 cases.
* Fed’s Neel Kashkari said many U.S. economic sectors faced rapidly rising prices and were struggling to adjust to reopening after the shutdown.
* SPDR Gold ETF holdings shed 5.8 tonnes to lowest in over 2 months

 

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.57% at 67246 as investors sought comfort in the U.S. dollar amid rising coronavirus cases, although a dip in Treasury yields limited the metal’s losses. However, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell to their lowest since mid-February.

Sentiment in wider financial markets also took a beating as investors feared a relentless surge in coronavirus cases and growing inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, many Asian countries have been forced into taking lockdown measures as they struggle to curb the highly contagious Delta variant of the coronavirus. U.S. homebuilder confidence in the market for single family homes fell in July to its lowest level since August 2020.

Economic growth in Germany could accelerate further this summer if there are no "significant setbacks" in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic and if supply bottlenecks ease, the country's central bank said. "As long as the there no significant setbacks with regard to the pandemic and supply bottlenecks ease at least gradually, the pace of the expansion of the overall economy could come in even stronger in the summer quarter," the Bundesbank said in its monthly report. Focus also remains on the European Central Bank, when policymakers are set for a showdown as they chart a new policy path amid growing fears of a third wave of coronavirus infections.

Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.61% to settled at 13604 while prices down -1073 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 66805 and below same could see a test of 66363 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 67905, a move above could see prices testing 68563.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 66363-68563.
* Silver dropped as investors sought comfort in the U.S. dollar amid rising coronavirus cases.
* However, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell to their lowest since mid-February.
* Sentiment in wider financial markets also took a beating as investors feared a relentless surge in coronavirus cases and growing inflationary pressures.

 

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -7.14% at 4991 after OPEC+ agreed on an output hike starting from next August, and amid renewed oversupply concerns, especially after the US oil production accelerated.

The OPEC Plus alliance announced after an emergency meeting to increase output by 400,000 barrels per day starting from August, and extended the expiration date of the cuts until the end of 2022 instead of April 2022. The alliance decided to raise the production baseline from 43.8 million bpd to 45.5 million bpd starting from May 2022, and raised the UAE production baseline to 3.8 million bpd from 3.5 million bpd, with Saudi Arabia and Russia production baseline rising by 500,000 bpd each from 11 to 11.5 million bpd.

The current cuts are now nearly 6 million bpd, which was planned to end in April 2022, but will be lowered to 5.6 million bpd until the end of 2022 after the new pact, and the agreement will be reviewed monthly. While the US output rose 300,000 barrels the past two weeks, with the total at the highest level since May 2020 at 11.4 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in May rose to 5.649 million barrels per day from 5.408 million bpd in April, official data showed.

Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 102.83% to settled at 7016 while prices down -384 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4845 and below same could see a test of 4700 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5235, a move above could see prices testing 5480.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4700-5480.
* Crude oil dropped after OPEC+ agreed on an output hike starting from next August, and amid renewed oversupply concerns, especially after the US oil production accelerated.
* OPEC+ agrees to boost oil supply, putting an end to standoff.
* Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates will have higher OPEC+ baselines.

 

Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 3.18% at 282.3 on soaring global gas prices and forecasts for more air conditioning demand next week than previously expected. The U.S. price increase occurred despite forecasts for a little less hot weather and lower air conditioning demand this week than previously expected.

Speculators, meanwhile, cut their net long futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges last week for the first time in seven weeks as buyers cashed in some of their gains after front-month futures rose for nine days in a row. Data provider Refinitiv said U.S. output in the Lower 48 states has slipped to 91.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, due mostly to pipeline problems in West Virginia earlier in the month.

That compares with an average of 92.2 bcfd in June and an all-time high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would rise from 92.3 bcfd this week to 94.7 bcfd next week as the weather turns seasonally hotter. The forecast for next week was higher than Refinitiv predicted on Friday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants has averaged 10.9 bcfd so far in July, up from 10.1 bcfd in June but still below the record 11.5 bcfd in April.

Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 33.82% to settled at 18417 while prices up 8.7 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 276.8 and below same could see a test of 271.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 285.3, a move above could see prices testing 288.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 271.4-288.4.
* Natural gas jumped on soaring global gas prices and forecasts for more air conditioning demand next week than previously expected.
* The U.S. price increase occurred despite forecasts for a little less hot weather and lower air conditioning demand this week than previously expected.
* Speculators, meanwhile, cut their net long futures and options positions for the first time in seven weeks as buyers cashed in some of their gains.

 

Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -2.11% at 715.45 as daily new coronavirus infections have been surging from the United States and Europe to Asia due to the spread of the Delta variant, making investors nervous about the global economic recovery.

China will strengthen commodity price monitoring and continue to release copper, aluminium, and zinc from its state reserves in batches, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said. In a rare move aimed at cooling a rally in metal prices that has pushed up raw material costs for Chinese manufacturers, the state planner sold 20,000 tonnes of copper, 50,000 tonnes of aluminium, and 30,000 tonnes of zinc from its reserves on July 5.

China will crack down on the hoarding and speculation of commodities while ensuring supplies and prices are stable, in a move to tame price volatility seen in recent months, said China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. China's refined copper output in June was up 2.6% year on year at 837,000 tonnes, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. Japan's copper cable sales, domestic and exports, rose 3.7% in June to 52,800 tonnes on-year, the Japan Electric Wire and Cable Makers' Association said.

Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 14.22% to settled at 4025 while prices down -15.45 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 708.2 and below same could see a test of 700.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 725.9, a move above could see prices testing 736.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 700.9-736.3.
* Copper prices fell as daily new coronavirus infections have been surging from the United States and Europe to Asia due to the spread of the Delta variant
* China June refined copper output up 2.6% – statistics bureau
* Japan's copper cable sales, domestic and exports, rose 3.7% in June to 52,800 tonnes on-year

 

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.59% at 242.4 as pressure seen after China will strengthen commodity price monitoring and continue to release copper, aluminium, and zinc from its state reserves in batches, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said. In a rare move aimed at cooling a rally in metal prices that has pushed up raw material costs for Chinese manufacturers, the state planner sold 20,000 tonnes of copper, 50,000 tonnes of aluminium, and 30,000 tonnes of zinc from its reserves on July 5.

More than 200 non-ferrous fabricators attended the bidding, with sales prices about 3-9% lower than market price that day, the NDRC spokesman Yuan Da said at a press briefing. The NDRC also pledged to keep reinforcing supervision of the futures and spot market and strictly crack down on irregularities such as hoarding, it said.

The PPI and CPI data released by US went up synchronously, and the hawkish sentiment in the market gradually rose. However, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell defended his loose stance for two consecutive days to hedge inflation concerns. On the whole, the market has heard some officials say that the inflation rate and employment rate have reached the expectations of the Federal Reserve.

Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -15.41% to settled at 2162 while prices down -1.45 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 240.5 and below same could see a test of 238.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 244.1, a move above could see prices testing 245.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 238.6-245.8.
* Zinc prices dropped as pressure seen after China will continue to release metals reserves in batches
* The NDRC also pledged to keep reinforcing supervision of the futures and spot market and strictly crack down on irregularities such as hoarding
* China June zinc output was up 6.2% y/y at 567,000 tonnes

 

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled down by -3.11% at 1390.4 as surging COVID-19 cases raised investor concerns about the global economic recovery and metals demand. Daily new coronavirus infections have jumped in the United States, Europe and Asia amid the spread of the Delta variant while the dollar hovered near its highest levels in months.

China will strengthen commodity price monitoring and continue to release copper, aluminium and zinc from its state reserves in batches, the National Development and Reform Commission said. PT Vale Indonesia's nickel matte production fell nearly 19.5% in the second quarter compared to the same period last year, due to planned maintenance.

Nickel matte output stood at 15,048 tonnes, the company filing showed, down from 18,701 tonnes a year earlier and 150 tonnes lower than in the first quarter. "Production volume in Q2 2021 was lower...mainly due to several planned maintenance executed in the processing plant," the company said. Total first-half nickel matte production stood at 30,246 tonnes, down 16.7%, a drop the company also attributed to unplanned maintenance and lower nickel grade in the first quarter. The company is targeting nickel matte output of 64,000 tonnes this year.

Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -43.9% to settled at 1633 while prices down -44.6 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1370.6 and below same could see a test of 1350.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1426.5, a move above could see prices testing 1462.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1350.7-1462.5.
* Nickel prices fell as surging COVID-19 cases raised investor concerns about the global economic recovery and metals demand
* Vale Indonesia Q2 nickel matte production falls sharply due to maintenance
* U.S. homebuilder confidence in the market for single family homes fell in July to its lowest level since August 2020.

 

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -2.1% at 193.55 after China's aluminium imports in June rose 30% from the prior month, data released by the General Administration of Customs showed. Imports of unwrought aluminium and products - which include primary metal and unwrought, alloyed aluminium - were 294,081 tonnes last month, up from 225,458 tonnes in May and up 1.8% year-on-year.

January-June imports totalled 1.46 million tonnes, customs said, up 79.2% on the year. Top aluminium maker China started importing much higher-than-usual volumes of the metal from mid-2020 as strong demand saw Shanghai prices far exceed London prices, opening an arbitrage window for cheaper material from overseas.

The National Development and Reform Commission said that in the next step, it will continue to follow the deployment of the State Council executive meeting, work with relevant departments to strengthen the monitoring and forecasting of commodity prices, organise the release of national reserves such as copper, aluminium and zinc, pay close attention to the abnormal fluctuations in market prices, continue to strengthen the linkage supervision of the spot market, and severely crack down on illegal price behaviors such as price gouging and hoarding.

Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -20.87% to settled at 1520 while prices down -4.15 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 191.9 and below same could see a test of 190.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 196.8, a move above could see prices testing 199.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 190.1-199.9.
* Aluminium prices dropped after China's aluminium imports in June rose 30% from the prior month
* China June alumina output was up 6.7% y/y at 6.8 million tonnes
* Data showed that China’s social inventories of aluminium across eight consumption areas fell 26,000 mt.

 

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.45% at 961.2 on low level buying after prices dropped as average yield in Barabanki is improved by 5-6 kgs per acre due to better weather. Support also seen due to the rotting of the crop due to stagnant water in the field. The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting.

Due to drowning in the water, the rows have started to wither. With the harvesting of the crop, oil extraction work has also started. However upside seen limited as arrivals likely to increase due to favourable weather conditions. Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days. Last week, prices rallied.

The Lucknow-based Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants estimates that this adverse effect of rains on the crop is expected to reduce production by 30% in the last two weeks. The crop is prone to rain because the leaves of the crop start falling due to waterlogging in the field. Most of the farmers have planted Mentha crops and this rain is not less than acid for 50 percent of Mentha crop. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 35.2 Rupees to end at 1088.8 Rupees per 360 kgs.

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.07% to settled at 944 while prices up 4.3 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 952.4 and below same could see a test of 943.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 973.4, a move above could see prices testing 985.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 943.7-985.7.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 35.2 Rupees to end at 1088.8 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil gained on low level buying after prices dropped as average yield in Barabanki improved
* Prices gained in recent sessions due to the rotting of the crop due to stagnant water in the field.
* The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting.

 

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 2.2% at 7898 amid tightening inventory situation in the country and amid slower pace of sowing. Government reports indicate that the weakening of rains has impacted the sowing of crops in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab. Area sown under soybean was lagging behind last year’s area by nearly 11.05 per cent.

Planting of overall oilseeds, including soybean was at 11.2 million hectares, down from 12.6 million hectares the previous year. A “break” in the monsoon has affected Kharif sowing in many parts of the country this year. However, area under soybean planting is likely to increase by 5-7% across the country this kharif season despite speculation in the market over the shortage of seeds.

Farmers, however, are keeping their fingers crossed due to the break in monsoon and hope for a revival of the monsoon to ensure a good crop. In the 2020 kharif season, soybean cultivation took place on 120 lakh hectares and the yield was about 105 lakh tonne. China's soybean imports in June hit their third-highest monthly level on record, customs data showed, boosted by a jump in shipments from Brazil. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 346 Rupees to 8211 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.67% to settled at 42230 while prices up 170 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 7786 and below same could see a test of 7674 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7985, a move above could see prices testing 8072.

Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 7674-8072.
* Soyabean prices gained amid tightening inventory situation in the country and amid slower pace of sowing.
* Government reports indicate that the weakening of rains has impacted the sowing of crops in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab.
* Area sown under soybean was lagging behind last year’s area by nearly 11.05 per cent.
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  346 Rupees to 8211 Rupees per 100 kgs.
 

Soya Oil

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -1.2% at 1357.9 on profit booking after prices seen supported by lingering concerns over tight supply. China raised its forecast on imports of edible oils in 2020/21 marketing year, on increase of palm oil and sunflower oil shipments, the country's agriculture ministry said. China's 2020/21 edible oils imports were seen at 10.23 million tonnes, up 900,000 tonnes from last month's forecast, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said in its monthly crop report.

Estimates on output, planting acreage and imports of corn, soybeans and cotton in the 2021/22 year remain unchanged from a month ago, according to the ministry. China's soybean acreage in 2021/22 year was seen at 9.347 million hectares, down 5.4% from 9.882 million hectares in the previous year, according to the report. India has slashed the base import price of palm oil and soyoil, the government said in a statement, as prices fell in the overseas market.

India exported 5.31 lakh tonnes of oilmeals in the first two months of the fiscal 2021-22 against 3.50 lakh tonnes in the same period a year ago, recording a growth of 52 per cent. BV Mehta, Executive Director of Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA), said the export of oilmeals increased sharply on the back of shipments of rapeseed meal during the period.

At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1406.6 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 6.9% to settled at 36100 while prices down -16.5 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1346 and below same could see a test of 1332 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1383, a move above could see prices testing 1406.

Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1332-1406.
* Ref soyoil dropped on profit booking after prices gained supported by lingering concerns over tight supply.
* China raised its forecast on imports of edible oils in 2020/21 marketing year, on increase of palm oil and sunflower oil shipments.
* China's 2020/21 edible oils imports were seen at 10.23 million tonnes, up 900,000 tonnes from last month's forecast
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1406.6 Rupees per 10 kgs.

 

Crude palm Oil

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -0.68% at 1084.8 amid weaker crude prices and expectations of declining exports in the second half of July. However, downside seen limited amid fears mounted about tightening global supplies due to a labour shortage in Malaysia and dry weather in several major edible oil producing countries. Support also seen on higher exports during July 1-15 and expectations of a sluggish rise in production.

Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for July 1-15 rose 3.8% to 682,426 tonnes from June 1-15, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said. Dry weather in the United States and Canada is curbing soybean and canola yields. Investors are also expecting palm oil production in July to be below potential despite the peak production season due to a labour shortage. European Union palm oil imports in the 2021/22 season fell to 80,608 tonnes versus 214,613 tonnes in 2020/21, European Commission data showed.

Plantations in Malaysia are entering the seasonal higher production months, but analysts are anticipating a small uptick in July output as a labour shortage continues to hamper harvesting. India's palm oil and soyoil imports plunged by nearly a quarter in June from a month ago, a leading trade body said in a statement, as refiners postponed purchases anticipating a reduction in the import tax. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 20 Rupees to end at 1120 Rupees.

Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.09% to settled at 4182 while prices down -7.4 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1075.2 and below same could see a test of 1065.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1101.1, a move above could see prices testing 1117.5.

Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 1065.7-1117.5.
* Crude palm oil prices dropped amid weaker crude prices and expectations of declining exports in the second half of July.
* However, downside seen limited amid fears mounted about tightening global supplies due to a labour shortage in Malaysia.
* Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for July 1-15 rose 3.8% to 682,426 tonnes from June 1-15
* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 20 Rupees to end at 1120 Rupees.
 

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 1.1% at 7372 as the arrival of mustard in the mandis has decreased at all places in the country. U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield. Pressure also seen as Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area.

U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield. Pressure also seen as Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area. COOIT was against any reduction in import duties on edible oils but wanted the Centre to remove the GST of 5 per cent on mustard seed and oil as it will help farmers and consumers both. European Union rapeseed production is projected to show a modest gain in 2021/22 on increased planted area and improved yield but will remain below the levels observed from 2016 to 2018. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 264.75 Rupees to end at 7692.75 Rupees per 100 kg.

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.17% to settled at 47070 while prices up 80 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 7304 and below same could see a test of 7236 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7460, a move above could see prices testing 7548.

Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 7236-7548.
* Mustard seed prices gained tracking firmness in overseas prices as drought continued across the Canadian Prairies, threatening crop yields.
* The arrival of mustard in the mandis has decreased at all places in the country.
* U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield.
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 264.75 Rupees to end at 7692.75 Rupees per 100 kg.

 

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.85% at 7554 as turmeric crops were severely damaged in Parbhani and Hingole due to heavy rains. Support also seen on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh.

However upside seen limited as sentiment is weak and sluggish demand from local stockists amid poor quality arrivals in the market has led to the fall in prices. The curbs and lockdowns announced to control the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic affected trading. In Nizamabad APMC in Telangana, the modal price of the finger variety turmeric was quoted at ₹6,950 a quintal. Prices are up about ₹400 since the beginning of this month. At Bangalore in Karnataka, turmeric is quoted at ₹11,500 at the APMC yard with most markets closed in the State to control the Covid-19 pandemic.

In Tamil Nadu, too, the agricultural markets are closed as part of the lockdown to tackle the pandemic. Demand for exports to Bangladesh and Europe are helping turmeric prices to gain. Exporters are looking to pick up stocks from Nanded in view of its quality. Turmeric has been in demand over the last two years as it is reported to be effective in medical use, particularly in combating Covid-19. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7317.85 Rupees gained 60.7 Rupees.

Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.89% to settled at 11280 while prices up 64 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7430 and below same could see a test of 7306 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7714, a move above could see prices testing 7874.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7306-7874.
* Turmeric prices gained as turmeric crops were severely damaged in Parbhani and Hingoli due to heavy rains.
* Support also seen on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh.
* However upside seen limited as sentiment is weak and sluggish demand from local stockists amid poor quality arrivals in the market has led to the fall in prices.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7317.85 Rupees gained 60.7 Rupees.

 

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 1.23% at 13610 as only 45-50 percent of the total production has come to the market. In recent sessions, prices dropped amid excess supply and as demand is likely to remain subdued on weak buying from local and overseas markets. Farmers need money to start sowing the kharif crop and they are bringing huge stocks to sell in the market after the easing of Covid-related restrictions.

In the benchmark market Unjha, 7,000 bags (1 bag = 55 kg) arrived yesterday as against 10,000 bags. As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued. The importers prefer to wait for the situation to normalize before negotiating for fresh deals. They rather prefer to clear their older stocks first and presently they feel that the older inventory may be sufficient to balance the existing demand for next few weeks easily.

The new season arrivals shall continue with good numbers hence there will be ample availability in the market. However from a broader perspective, India’s exports outlook has brightened while crop is expected to be lower versus year on year. Also, the nearest export competitors i.e. Turkey and Syria may not supply much to the world due to lower exportable surplus. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 141.55 Rupees to end at 13652.65 Rupees per 100 kg.

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.79% to settled at while prices up 165 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13465 and below same could see a test of 13315 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13705, a move above could see prices testing 13795.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 13315-13795.
* Jeera prices gained as only 45-50 percent of the total production has come to the market.
* In recent sessions, prices dropped amid excess supply and as demand is likely to remain subdued on weak buying from local and overseas markets.
* Farmers need money to start sowing the kharif crop and they are bringing huge stocks to sell in the market after the easing of Covid-related restrictions.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 141.55 Rupees to end at 13652.65 Rupees per 100 kg.
 

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -1.08% at 25620 on profit booking after area under sowing for Cotton covered is 8.05 lakh ha more than compared to normal of corresponding week. About 98.38 lakh ha area coverage has been reported compared to normal of corresponding week (90.33 lakh ha).

The area of cotton cultivation in Marathwada has reduced during this kharif season as more farmers have opted for soyabean over the traditional cash crop, implying a gradual shift in the cropping pattern in the region. Cotton sowing has taken place only on 67% of the expected area of 6.97 lakh hectare in the Aurangabad division and 65% of the expected area (3.58 lakh hectare) in the Latur division. India’s cotton ending stocks could be lower than 75 lakh bales (170 kg each) in the current season to September as domestic demand has picked up.

But some estimates are pegging them higher than 100 lakh bales against a record 120-plus lakh bales last season. CCI, which had nearly 207 lakh bales of cotton stocks, could be left with 18 lakh bales by the end of the season, the CMD said, adding that most of the sales were meant for domestic consumption. In spot market, Cotton gained by 180 Rupees to end at 25890 Rupees.

Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -13.21% to settled at 2865 while prices down -280 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 25420 and below same could see a test of 25220 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 25920, a move above could see prices testing 26220.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 25220-26220.
* Cotton prices dropped on profit booking after area under Cotton covered is 8.05 lakh ha more than compared to normal of corresponding week.
* About 98.38 lakh ha area coverage has been reported compared to normal of corresponding week.
* The area of cotton cultivation in Marathwada has reduced during this kharif season as more farmers have opted for soyabean
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 180 Rupees to end at 25890 Rupees.

 

Chana

Chana yesterday settled up by 1.18% at 4904 as Central Government has relaxed stock limits for Millers and wholesalers and exempted importers from the same. Area under sowing for Kharif Pulses Crop area covered is 10.56 lakh ha less compared to normal of corresponding week. About 70.64 lakh ha area coverage has been reported compared to normal of corresponding week (81.20 lakh ha).

The Govt imposed stock limits on all pulses except moong for wholesalers, retailers, millers and importers, to bring down the prices of these items, which have risen in retail markets since March. According to the order issued by the food ministry, valid until October 31, wholesalers can keep with them maximum 200 tonne of all pulses, including not more than 100 tonne in one variety.

The stock limit for retailers has been fixed at 5 tonne. For millers, the limit is total production during last three months or 25% of annual installed capacity, whichever is higher. Importers are allowed to keep maximum 200 tonne of all pulses, including not more than 100 tonne in one variety (same as for wholesalers), for stocks held/imported before 15th May. However, this same stock limit will be applicable on importers after 45 days from date of customs clearance for stocks imported after May 15.

In Delhi spot market, chana gained by 20.95 Rupees to end at 4704.15 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.92% to settled at 120270 while prices up 57 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4841 and below same could see a test of 4777 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4950, a move above could see prices testing 4995.

Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 4777-4995.
* Chana gained as Central Government has relaxed stock limits for Millers and wholesalers and exempted importers from the same.
* Area under sowing for Kharif Pulses Crop area covered is 10.56 lakh ha less compared to normal of corresponding week.
* About 70.64 lakh ha area coverage has been reported compared to normal of corresponding week (81.20 lakh ha).
* In Delhi spot market, chana gained  by 20.95 Rupees to end at 4704.15 Rupees per 100 kgs.

 

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