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Below is Gold Article by Mr. Prathamesh Mallya, DVP Research, Non-Agro Commodities & Currency, Angel One Ltd.

Gold slips as dollar rose; Crude continues to see uptick.

GOLD

Gold prices declined to nearly a one-month low on Tuesday, influenced by a surge in the dollar due to disappointing Chinese trade data and cautious sentiment ahead of impending U.S. inflation figures.

All eyes are focused on the forthcoming U.S. consumer price index data set to release on Thursday, with expectations of a slight uptick in July's annual inflation rate to 3.3%, while the core rate is predicted to remain steady at 4.8%

The looming uncertainty around these figures, coupled with recent remarks by Fed officials about potential rate adjustments, has injected volatility into gold's outlook.

The metal's performance is highly responsive to fluctuations in U.S. interest rates, which impact the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.

Outlook: We expect gold to trade lower towards 58900 levels, a break of which could prompt the price to move lower to 58740 levels.

CRUDE

Oil prices climbed nearly $1 recently, but concerns about sluggish demand from China outweighed supply worries from Saudi Arabia and Russia's production cuts.

Both benchmarks notched a sixth weekly gain, supported by OPEC+ supply reductions and hopes of Chinese demand recovery.

Yet, China's July crude imports fell 18.8%, and overall imports and exports dropped more than expected.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration projected a record 12.76 million bpd crude production in 2023, potentially offsetting gains.

Despite rising since June due to Saudi Arabia's cuts and rising global demand, oil market sentiment remains sensitive to demand-supply dynamics.

Outlook: We expect crude to trade higher towards 6940 levels, a break of which could prompt the price to move higher to 7020 levels.

BASE METALS

The base metals pack faced downward pressure, as copper prices hit a nearly month-low due to lackluster Chinese trade and auto sales figures, intensifying concerns about the demand landscape for the largest metals consumer globally.

Copper's losses moderated somewhat following remarks from a Federal Reserve official indicating a potential pause in interest rate changes.

The industrial metals market experienced selling as China's imports and exports dropped more than anticipated in July, posing a threat to the growth outlook for the second-largest economy.

Despite previous optimism driven by hopes of Chinese stimulus, factors like sluggish vehicle sales and a stronger dollar have contributed to the recent copper price decline, even with tight domestic inventories.

Outlook: We expect copper to trade lower towards 720 levels, a break of which could prompt the price to move lower to 713 levels.

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