Commodity Article : Gold remains uncertain; Oil continues to climb higher Says Prathamesh Mallya, Angel One
Below is Gold Article by Mr. Prathamesh Mallya, AVP- Research, Non-Agri Commodities, and Currencies, Angel One Ltd
Gold remains uncertain; Oil continues to climb higher.
GOLD
After concluding lower in the week gone by, prices extended the weakness for yet another day, as the yellow metal slipped 0.36 percent lower.
Hawkish comments from two US Federal Reserve officials dragged non-yielding bullion and investors awaited more clarity on US debt ceiling negotiations.
Following the breakdown of the debt ceiling negotiations on Friday, it is planned to happen again this week; however, if talk breaks down again, it may float a sense of uncertainty into the markets, causing some flight-to-safety buying into gold.
On the other side, the market is waiting for the minutes of the most recent US Federal Open Market Committee meeting, since markets are pricing in a 68.6% chance of interest rates remaining unchanged next month.
Outlook: We expect gold to trade higher towards 60620 levels, a break of which could prompt the price to move higher to 60830 levels.
CRUDE
In the recently concluded week, the benchamr crude index NYMEX witnessed handsome gains, however, coming into the new week, the benchmarks continued the momentum, as the gains were extended further.
Oil prices rose 1% on Monday as predictions for oil demand in the second half of the year rose, while supplies from Canada and OPEC+ fell in recent weeks.
However, oil prices were held back by a stronger dollar and the market's anticipation of news on the US debt ceiling talks.
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned of an impending oil scarcity in the second half of the year, when demand is likely to exceed supply by over 2 million barrels per day (bpd).
Outlook: We expect crude to trade higher towards 6120 levels, a break of which could prompt the price to move higher to 6200 levels.
BASE METALS
The continued weakness dragged the metals prices lower, as all the metals concluded on a negative note on Monday.
On Monday, copper prices fell as investors focused on decreasing demand in top consumer China, increased supplies, and rising stocks in LME-approved warehouses.
China's CMOC has concluded a royalty agreement with the state miner of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, paving the door for copper exports to restart.
Peruvian copper production increased in March as huge mines restarted operations following stoppages triggered by social protests.
Outlook: Due to weak Chinese demand and a high US dollar, metal prices are likely to stay low.
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Quote on Silver : Silver price falls in recent weeks Says Prathamesh Mallya, Angel One