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05-05-2023 12:06 PM | Source: Angel One Ltd
Commodity Article : Gold continues to shine; Crude remains under pressure Says Prathamesh Mallya, Angel One
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"Daily Commodity Article" by Mr. Prathamesh Mallya, AVP- Research, Non-Agri Commodities, and Currencies, Angel One Ltd.

Gold continues to shine; Crude remains under pressure

GOLD

The surge in gold prices continues for another day, as the yellow metal gained 0.49 percent and conclude at 2051.1$ per ounce.

With this strong momentum, gold is on track for its highest weekly rise in almost two months, as anticipation of a pause in the US Federal Reserve's rate hiking cycle and banking concerns boosted the safe-haven metal's attractiveness.

On Thursday, gold rose near highs as US banking fears increased demand for the safe-haven metal. Economic uncertainty and falling interest rates drive up demand for zero-yielding bullion.

The Fed Funds target rate is currently between 5% and 5.25%, with markets anticipating rate reduction in the second half of the year.

Outlook: Gold prices are expected to remain elevated as economic uncertainty and the possibility of the US Fed stopping interest rate hikes keep the demand line ticking higher.

CRUDE OIL

On Thursday, crude prices showed strength, but could't take it over the line, as benchmark NYMEX continued to slip further.

Oil prices were likely to fall for the third week in a row as markets saw huge reductions on fears of a faltering US economy and slower Chinese demand.

Worries over a regional banking crisis in the United States persisted, frightening markets even more, as PacWest Bancorp announced plans to investigate strategic options.

Oil prices were also harmed by a strengthening dollar as the European Central Bank raised interest rates on Thursday and signalled the need for more tightening, only one day after the US Federal Reserve lifted rates.

A rising dollar raises the cost of crude for buyers holding foreign money.

Outlook: We expect crude to trade higher towards 5810 levels, a break of which could prompt the price to move higher to 5910 levels.

BASE METALS

On Thursday, the base metals pack witnessed a weak session, with LME Copper managining to hold onto the gains, whereas all the other ended on a lower note.

Copper prices rose slightly on Thursday as the US Federal Reserve announced a pause in rate hikes, but gains were muted as the dollar rose and investors were concerned about demand in top metals user China.

A stronger dollar raises the cost of commodities priced in US dollars for buyers using foreign currencies.

Copper has fallen 10% after reaching a seven-month high in January, driven down by weak Chinese demand and concerns about the global economy's health.

In China, industrial activity unexpectedly declined in April as orders decreased and weak domestic demand weighed on the vast manufacturing sector, jeopardizing the broader economic outlook for the second quarter.

Outlook: Metal prices are likely to remain under pressure as a result of poor Chinese demand and a strong currency. The damage may be limited, though, because the US Fed is likely to put off additional rate hikes.

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