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Below the Comment on US FED policy by Ghazal Jain, Fund Manager, Quantum AMC

Comment

International gold prices corrected post the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement on 14^th June. As expected, the central bank left the benchmark federal funds rate in a target range of 5% to 5.25%. But before markets could rejoice this apparent dovish move, they were rudely shocked by the FOMC’s updated 2023 economic forecasts which put another 50 basis points of rate hikes on the table. The Federal Reserve has revised its inflation and growth projection upwards, and its unemployment rate downwards, which means – 1) Price pressures are looking sticky; 2) the widely expected US recession has been pushed down the road; 3) labor markets are displaying strength. If one goes by these estimates, the Fed now has more room and more reason to tighten. Investors should brace for volatility and probably some downside in gold prices over the next couple of months. Stubborn inflation will prevent any sharp downside in prices though. Investors can start accumulating gold in a staggered manner or systematically with SIPs to take advantage of lower prices.

Looking beyond, the Fed Chair Powell did admit that the effects of their cumulative tightening are yet to show up yet insisted on further tightening. It’s becoming clear that the Fed is prepared for a growth setback if required to bring inflation down to its target. Resulting volatility in risk assets and risk aversion will keep gold relevant as a portfolio diversifier. When the Fed pauses for good, gold prices will remain rangebound but well supported as markets price in the next (dovish) leg of Fed policy. Eventually, when the Fed’s hawkishness runs out of steam, either as inflation backs off or as it stumbles upon an economic shock, gold prices will be driven higher by lower interest rates and a softer US dollar.   

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