China may face clear headwinds, India likely to benefit: SBI Ecowrap
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India seems to be enjoying the 'There Is No Alternative' (TINA) factor, as globally all countries are facing the churn and India seems to the best placed jurisdiction in terms of growth and inflation outlook in FY23, according to the SBI Ecowrap report.
This optimism is because China is also facing a bleak outlook on the back of a construction sector meltdown. In fact, report believes that the China story may now be facing clear headwinds and India is likely to benefit from such stark realities over the longer term.
The trends in prices of both retail and commercial real estate in China now show much deeper structural adjustment. The long-term trends in retail prices show that since 2016, prices have been steadily declining along the linear trend.
In 2022, even the nominal price index has witnessed degrowth which is a worrying sign. The real price index growth has been in negative growth since December 2021. Home sales in China have fallen for 11 months in a row, official data shows. That is the longest slump since China created a private property market in the late 1990s.
Chinese demographers are now predicting that negative population growth in China will be the dominant trend in the coming years for a long time and improving the overall quality of the population and changing economic development plans are vital to address the problem.
With ageing, size of the family will gradually shrink. The housing demand will eventually decline in the long run in China as seen in Japan. The future outlook of the construction sector in China over the long run structural factors such as demographic ageing and rebalancing of economy will eventually remove a substantial portion of demand.
India is likely to be the beneficiary as China slows down in terms of new investment intentions.
Since the default by Evergrande group, once hailed as the toast of Chinese infrastructure resurgence, the financial situation of the construction sector in China has steadily moved southwards.
The debt default by Evergrande group spread to other large and mid-tier construction companies. Listed developers' share prices have fallen US$55 billion during 2022, while the sector's dollar notes have fallen by more than US$35 billion. Bank loans to the real estate sector have dropped for the first time in 10 years.
