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Chemical, Petrochemical Prices, Margins, and Trends - January 2022

Pricing trends: a mixed bag

January 2022 witnessed mixed MoM pricing trends in chemicals and petrochemicals. Monomer prices saw an increase, while polymer prices witnessed a decline MoM, which impacted margins. Phenol-Acetone margins improved substantially MoM, again rising beyond US$850/ MT. Prices of commodity chemicals, such as Soda Ash and Caustic Soda, continued their MoM decline in January, plummeting ~28% and ~9%, respectively. As Chinese chemical production is under shutdown/partial shutdown due to the Chinese New Year holidays last week and the ongoing Olympic Games in Beijing, the pricing environment can be volatile in the interim.

* Soda Ash prices declined by ~28% MoM -— after peaking at USD901/MT by Oct’21-end; The prices declined sharply to settle at ~USD304/MT by Jan’22-end. However, avg. prices were up ~35% QoQ in Q4CY21 - positive for Tata Chemical, GHCL and all the Caustic Soda players. 

* Acrylonitrile prices declined by ~23% MoM - positive for RIL.

* China Benzene prices have started strengthening from the lows of ~CNY6,417/MT in Dec’21 to ~CNY7,553/MT in the last week of Jan’22 due to an increase in crude prices.

* China cumulative Ethylene production in CY’21 rose ~29% YoY.

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