Chana trading range for the day is 5150-5308 - Kedia Advisory
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Gold
Gold yesterday settled down by -0.29% at 48404 as fairly strong stock markets and a steady dollar amid continued optimism about economic recovery dimmed the demand for the safe-haven commodity. In U.S. economic news, a report released by the National Association of Realtors showed an unexpected decrease in existing home sales in the month of April. NAR said existing home sales tumbled by 2.7% to an annual rate of 5.85 million in April after plunging by 3.7% to a rate of 6.01 million in March. Widespread lockdowns coupled with a jump in domestic prices stifled the physical gold market in India, as it grappled with a fierce COVID-19 wave, forcing dealers to offer the steepest discounts in eight months. Dealers offered discounts of up to $10 an ounce, the highest since mid-September 2020, over official domestic prices — inclusive of the 10.75% import and 3% sales levies — versus the $5 discount last week. Banks and dealers are offering gold imported in April at a discount as global prices were then lower. Top consumer China saw stable demand, with premiums little changed at $7-$10 an ounce over benchmark spot gold prices. SPDR Gold Trust , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings rose 0.6% to 1042.92 tonnes on Friday from 1,037.09 tonnes on Thursday. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.26% to settled at 5721 while prices down -140 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 48200 and below same could see a test of 47995 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 48640, a move above could see prices testing 48875.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 47995-48875.
* Gold settled lower as fairly strong stock markets and a steady dollar amid continued optimism about economic recovery dimmed the demand
* A report released by the National Association of Realtors showed an unexpected decrease in existing home sales in the month of April.
* Lockdowns cripple Indian market as discounts hit 8-month high
Silver
Silver yesterday settled down by -1.74% at 71049 as the dollar rebounded after robust U.S. manufacturing data. Data showed U.S. factory activity gathered speed in early May amid strong domestic demand. Fed minutes showed a "number" of officials were ready to taper monetary policy on continued economic recovery, although market participants shrugged off those concerns as they do not expect it to be imminent. Data firm IHS Markit said its flash U.S. manufacturing PMI increased to 61.5 in the first half of this month. Rising U.S. inflationary risks have spooked markets, and minutes on Wednesday from the last Federal Reserve meeting suggested some policymakers were ready to talk about reducing stimulus by tapering bond purchases. Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker said Fed officials should start talking about the best way to reduce their asset purchases "sooner rather than later." Also, rising COVID-19 cases globally remain a concern. Official tolls showing the number of deaths directly or indirectly attributed to the pandemic are likely to be a "significant undercount," the World Health Organization said, saying 6 to 8 million people may have died so far. In the euro zone, the IHS Markit's flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index, seen as a good guide to economic health, climbed to 56.9 in May, its highest level since February 2018, from April's final reading of 53.8. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.77% to settled at 11009 while prices down -1255 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 70210 and below same could see a test of 69370 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 72190, a move above could see prices testing 73330.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 69370-73330.
* Silver prices dropped as the dollar rebounded after robust U.S. manufacturing data.
* Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker said Fed officials should start talking about the best way to reduce their asset purchases "sooner rather than later."
* Fed minutes showed a "number" of officials were ready to taper monetary policy on continued economic recovery, although market participants shrugged off those concerns
Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled up by 2.4% at 4659 after a report from the U.S. National Hurricane Centre that a storm forming over the Western Gulf of Mexico will likely become a cyclone over the weekend raised concerns about possible disruptions in production. However, traders weighed prospects of excess supply in the market following signs of progress in Iran nuclear talks, and uncertainty about energy demand due to the surge in coronavirus cases in Asia. However, it is expected that gasoline demand will see a surge in the U.S. and Europe thanks to reopening of businesses and the momentum in vaccination drive. According to reports, top policymakers said sanctions prohibiting Iranian oil export could be lifted sometime soon. The Persian Gulf nation's president, Hassan Rouhani, said world powers have accepted that major sanctions will be lifted, though details and finer points are still awaited. A report from Baker Hughes said the number of U.S. rigs drilling for oil rose by 4 to 356 this week, increasing for a third straight week. The total active U.S. rig count climbed by 2 to 455, the report said. Money managers cut their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to May 18, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -30.49% to settled at 4450 while prices up 109 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4556 and below same could see a test of 4452 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4727, a move above could see prices testing 4794.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4452-4794.
* Crude oil rose after a reports a storm forming over the Western Gulf of Mexico will likely become a cyclone raised concerns about possible disruptions in production.
* However, traders weighed prospects of excess supply in the market following signs of progress in Iran nuclear talks, and uncertainty about energy demand.
* However, it is expected that gasoline demand will see a surge in the U.S. and Europe thanks to reopening of businesses and the momentum in vaccination drive.
Nat.Gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -0.56% at 212.4 as production continued to edge higher and exports slip. The price decline came despite forecasts that warmer weather in coming weeks will boost the amount of gas power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 90.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, up from 90.6 bcfd in April. That is still well below November 2019's monthly record of 95.4 bcfd. With the summer air conditioning season approaching, Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would rise from 81.3 bcfd this week to 84.8 bcfd next week and 86.1 bcfd in two weeks. That was similar to Refinitiv's forecasts. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged 10.9 bcfd so far in May, down from April's monthly record of 11.5 bcfd. The decline was due to short-term issues and normal spring maintenance at a few Gulf Coast plants and the gas pipelines that supply them. U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico, meanwhile, averaged 6.0 bcfd so far in May, just off April's monthly record of 6.1 bcfd, Refinitiv data showed. U.S. natural gas storage is expected to end the April-October injection season at 3.581 trillion cubic feet (tcf) on Oct. 31, the lowest since 2018. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -20.06% to settled at 5837 while prices down -1.2 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 209.5 and below same could see a test of 206.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 216.5, a move above could see prices testing 220.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 206.7-220.7.
* Natural gas eased as production continued to edge higher and exports slip.
* The price decline came despite forecasts that warmer weather in coming weeks will boost the amount of gas power generators
* U.S. natural gas storage is expected to end the April-October injection season at 3.581 tcf on Oct. 31, the lowest since 2018
Copper
Copper yesterday settled down by -1.54% at 740.55 weighed down by fears that authorities in top consumer China will take measures to curb a rally in commodity prices. China said it would strengthen its management of commodity supply and demand to curb "unreasonable" increases in prices and prevent them being passed on to consumers. The global world refined copper market showed a 111,000 tonnes surplus in February, compared with a 20,000 tonnes surplus in January, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. For the first 2 months of the year, the market was in a 131,000 tonnes surplus compared with a 85,000 tonnes surplus in the same period a year earlier, the ICSG said. World refined copper output in February was 1.89 million tonnes , while consumption was 1.78 million tonnes. Chile's state-run Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, said its product was now 100% traceable, a key step as the sprawling miner pushes to reduce its carbon footprint and boost sustainability within its operations. CEO Octavio Araneda said in a web seminar that tracing copper through its mines would help the company more precisely measure progress on its social and environmental goals while providing proof to increasingly demanding customers of those efforts. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -23.84% to settled at 2425 while prices down -11.6 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 734.3 and below same could see a test of 728 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 749.3, a move above could see prices testing 758.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 728-758.
* Copper fell weighed down by fears that authorities in top consumer China will take measures to curb a rally in commodity prices.
* China said it would strengthen its management of commodity supply and demand to curb "unreasonable" increases in prices
* The global world refined copper market showed a 111,000 tonnes surplus in February, compared with a 20,000 tonnes surplus in January
Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.11% at 231.15 as power shortages in the Yunnan province left smelters facing production cuts. The global zinc market surplus narrowed in March to 2,100 tonnes from a revised surplus of 56,900 tonnes the previous month, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a surplus of 65,400 tonnes in February. During the first three months of 2021, the ILZSG data showed a surplus of 54,000 tonnes, down from a surplus of 249,000 tonnes in the same period of 2020. Around 13.5 million tonnes of zinc are produced and consumed each year. Spot TCs, paid by miners to smelters to process imported concentrate into refined zinc in top consumer China, were last assessed by Asian Metal at $95 a tonne, up 35.7% from the previous day and the highest since Dec. 4. Charges has previously been languishing a $70 a tonne, the lowest since September 2018 amid tight supply; the 2021 TC benchmark, used in long-term concentrate deals, was agreed at $159 a tonne. Data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots across Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Hebei decreased 10,100 mt in the week ended May 21 to 166,200 mt. The stocks fell 5,000 mt from Monday May 17. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.34% to settled at 1186 while prices up 0.25 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 229.5 and below same could see a test of 227.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 233.6, a move above could see prices testing 236.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 227.8-236.
* Zinc prices remained supported as power shortages in the Yunnan province left smelters facing production cuts.
* The global zinc market surplus narrowed in March to 2,100 tonnes from a revised surplus of 56,900 tonnes the previous month
* Data showed that social inventories of refined zinc ingots across Shanghai, decreased 10,100 mt to 166,200 mt.
Nickel
Nickel yesterday settled down by -2.32% at 1222.3 as pressure seen after data showed nickel ore inventories across all Chinese ports increased 234,000 wmt from May 14 to 5.77 million wmt as of May 21. Data also showed that nickel ore stocks across seven major Chinese ports increased 74,000 wmt during the same period to 4.27 million wmt. The global nickel market deficit widened to 16,100 tonnes in March from a small deficit of 600 tonnes in the previous month, data from the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) showed. Lisbon-based INSG's original estimate of the market balance for February was a 6,200 tonne surplus. During the first three months of the year, the global market saw a deficit of 18,700 tonnes, down from a surplus of 38,000 tonnes in the same period of 2020, INSG's data showed. China's refined nickel cathode output held steady in April from the previous month at 13,014 tonnes. The total, which came from just two smelters -Jinchuan Group and Xinjiang Xinin Mining - was down 11.6% year on year, as other producers opt to make nickel sulphate for electric vehicle batteries instead. Jinchuan plans maintenance in May, which will knock almost 1,000 tonnes off its monthly nickel cathode output, but production from Jilin Jien Nickel has returned after being off line for several months. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -33.61% to settled at 1288 while prices down -29 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1208 and below same could see a test of 1193.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1245.7, a move above could see prices testing 1269.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1193.8-1269.2.
* Nickel prices dropped as pressure seen after data showed nickel ore inventories across all Chinese ports increased 234,000 wmt
* The global nickel market deficit widened to 16,100 tonnes in March from a small deficit of 600 tonnes in the previous month
* China's refined nickel cathode output held steady in April from the previous month at 13,014 tonnes.
Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.27% at 188.15 as global primary aluminium output fell to 5.56 million tonnes in April from revised 5.744 million tonnes in March, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. China's aluminium imports in April rose 36.1% from the previous month, data released by the General Administration of Customs showed. Imports of unwrought aluminium and products - which include primary metal and unwrought, alloyed aluminium - were 281，139 tonnes last month, up from March's 206,556 tonnes and jumped 165.2% year-on-year. U.S. factory activity gathered speed in early May amid strong domestic demand, but backlogs of uncompleted work are piling up as manufacturers struggle to find raw materials and labor, boosting costs for both businesses and consumers. Though other data showed sales of previously owned homes dropping to a 10-month low in April as an acute shortage of houses drove prices to a record high, they remained well above their pre-pandemic level. The housing market and manufacturing have led the economy's recovery from the COVID-19 recession, which started in February 2020. The procession of Americans heading to the unemployment line fell last week, with jobless claims totaling a fresh pandemic-era low of 444,000, the Labor Department reported. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -24.85% to settled at 895 while prices up 0.5 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 185.8 and below same could see a test of 183.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 191.2, a move above could see prices testing 194.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 183.5-194.3.
* Aluminium prices remained supported as global primary aluminium output fell to 5.56 million tonnes in April from revised 5.744 million tonnes in March
* U.S. factory activity gathered speed in early May amid strong domestic demand
* Data showed sales of previously owned homes dropping to a 10-month low in April
Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -1.07% at 946.8 amid worries of lockdown it is anticipated that there will be slow supply and same with demand in domestic as well as in the international market. Due to favourable wheather condition,the production of mentha in the states has improved and is at much better terms compare to last year. Sowing data is adequate and it is expected that Mentha can hit the market by 15th of June. Mentha has high demand in the production of cosmetics and confectionery goods but as it is not considered as necessity in present scenerio it is not much in demand. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. In India, mentha is grown on 3,27,000-3,34,000 hectares, producing about 33,000-35,000 tonnes, accounting for 80 per cent share globally. With the boom in demand for oil and its derivatives in export markets, mentha production continued to rise until 2010. However, with the entry of synthetic menthol, the demand, price and production of mentha were hit. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -20.3 Rupees to end at 1058.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -28% to settled at 18 while prices down -10.2 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 939.6 and below same could see a test of 932.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 954.6, a move above could see prices testing 962.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 932.3-962.3.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -20.3 Rupees to end at 1058.9 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped amid worries of lockdown there will be slow demand
* Due to favourable wheather condition,the production of mentha in the states has improved and is at much better terms compare to last year.
* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.
Soyabean
Soyabean yesterday settled down by -2.42% at 6861 as USDA report showed Soybean production in the world is likely to increase by 6% to 386 million tonnes in next season (September- 2021- August 2020) in expectation of higher crop size in US and India. Total crop size in India may stand higher by 750,000 tonnes to 11.2 Million tonnes against 10.45 Million tonnes in this season. Higher soybean prices in this season will encourage farmers in India to cover higher soybean area. China's soybean imports from Brazil surged in April from the previous month, customs data showed, as cargoes that had been delayed by poor weather cleared customs. China, the world's top importer of soybeans, brought in 5.08 million tonnes of the oilseed from top supplier Brazil in April, up from only 315,334 tonnes in March, data from the General Administration of Customs showed. Chinese crushers stepped up purchases of soybeans in expectation of increasing demand for animal feed from the steadily recovering pig sector. Rain, however, delayed the harvest and exports from the South American country. European Union soybean imports in the 2020/21 season that started last July had reached 13.17 million tonnes by May 16, data published by the European Commission showed. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped -307 Rupees to 7312 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.27% to settled at 58395 while prices down -170 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 6758 and below same could see a test of 6656 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7026, a move above could see prices testing 7192.
Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 6656-7192.
* Soyabean prices remained under pressure as USDA report showed Soybean production in the world is likely to increase by 6%
* China's April soybean imports from Brazil surge from previous month
* Brazil's Abiove sees 2021 soybean exports at record 85.6 million tns
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean dropped -307 Rupees to 7312 Rupees per 100 kgs.
Ref.Soyaoil
Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -0.88% at 1390.5 as higher soybean output could limit edible oil imports. Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth in 2021 as record high prices for the oilseed could prompt some to switch from cultivating competing commodities such as cotton and pulses, industry officials said. Increased production of India's main summer-sown oilseed could help the world's biggest vegetable oil importer trim costly purchases of palm oil, soyoil and sunflower oil from Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina and Ukraine. Global oilseed production is forecast to grow 5 percent in 2021/22, primarily on growth in soybean output in the United States and South America. Global oilseed production is projected to reach 632 million tons on record plantings. Soybean production is forecast to rise 23 million tons to 386 million, a 6-percent increase. Production of all oilseeds is forecast to increase, with all but cottonseed and rapeseed reaching at least 10-year records. The U.S. Department of Agriculture projected U.S. 2021/22 soybean ending stocks at 140 million bushels, up only slightly from the 120 million expected at the end of 2020/21. The USDA projected a U.S. 2021/22 soybean crop of 4.405 billion bushels, based on an average yield of 50.8 bushels per acre. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1443.2 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 9.67% to settled at 39565 while prices down -12.4 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1378 and below same could see a test of 1365 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1406, a move above could see prices testing 1421.
Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1365-1421.
* Ref soyoil prices dropped as higher soybean output could limit edible oil imports.
* Indian farmers are likely to expand their soybean planting area by more than a tenth in 2021
* Global oilseed production is forecast to grow 5 percent in 2021/22, primarily on growth in soybean output in the United States and South America.
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1443.2 Rupees per 10 kgs.
Crude palm Oil
Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -0.69% at 1211 hit by demand and lockdown concerns in Malaysia. However downside seen limited as Malaysia's palm exports during May 1-20 rose 16% month-on-month. There are also concerns of stricter movement restrictions in Malaysia, which could implode consumption from the domestic hospitality, restaurants and catering sectors. Malaysia has kept its May export tax for crude palm oil at 8% but raised the reference price, a circular on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board website showed. The world's second-largest palm exporter calculated a reference price of 4,533.40 ringgit per tonne for May, up from 4,331.48 ringgit a tonne in April. The export tax structure starts at 3% for crude palm oil in a 2,250 to 2,400 ringgit-per-tonne range. The maximum tax rate is set at 8% when prices exceed 3,450 ringgit a tonne. India's palm oil imports in 2021 are set to fall for the second consecutive year as pandemic concerns continue to unfold in the country, forcing refiners to dial back production and keep stocks at a bare minimum level. India's imports of palm oil imports jumped 82% in April on the year as refiners stepped up purchases of the tropical oil to reduce imports of expensive soyoil and sunflower oil. In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -17.7 Rupees to end at 1232.5 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.51% to settled at 2793 while prices down -8.4 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1196 and below same could see a test of 1181 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1233, a move above could see prices testing 1255.
Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 1181-1255.
* Crude palm oil dropped hit by demand and lockdown concerns in Malaysia.
* However downside seen limited as Malaysia's palm exports during May 1-20 rose 16% month-on-month.
* Malaysia has kept its May export tax for crude palm oil at 8% but raised the reference price
* In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -17.7 Rupees to end at 1232.5 Rupees.
Mustard Seed
Mustard Seed yesterday settled down by -0.17% at 6945 as U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons on record area and trend yield. Pressure also seen as Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area. European Union rapeseed production is projected to show a modest gain in 2021/22 on increased planted area and improved yield but will remain below the levels observed from 2016 to 2018. Prices rallied in recent session lifted by higher soy prices and concerns about dry Canadian planting conditions. Support also seen as crushing as increased due to rise in mustard oil demand. A total of 1.2 million tonnes of mustard crushing occurred in the country in March 2021 compared to 5.50 lakh tonnes in the month of February. Whereas, the stock of mustard with farmers is estimated to be 62.50 lakh tonnes and processors and stockists have a stock of six lakh tonnes of mustard. India mustard output this year is projected at 104.27 lakh tonnes. However, the Central Organisation for Oil Industry and Trade (COOIT) and the Mustard Oil Producers' Association (MOPA) have estimated the production at 89.50 lakh tonnes. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 105 Rupees to end at 7325 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.28% to settled at 62020 while prices down -12 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 6889 and below same could see a test of 6834 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7021, a move above could see prices testing 7098.
Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 6834-7098.
* Mustard seed prices dropped as after U.S. rapeseed production is forecast to reach a record 1.8 million tons
* Pressure also seen as Canada rapeseed production is projected at 20.5 million tons, up 1.5 million on greater area.
* European Union rapeseed production is projected to show a modest gain in 2021/22 on increased planted area and improved yield
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 105 Rupees to end at 7325 Rupees per 100 kg.
Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.68% at 8184 on profit booking as pressure seen after prices dropped across various agricultural produce marketing committee (APMC) yards in the country mainly on account of slack demand. Turmeric prices are down as there is no demand because traders fear a fresh lockdown due to rise in Covid-19 cases could result in stockists’ purchases dropping. Prices have declined by about ₹1,000 a quintal at various APMCs in Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Maharashtra. Prices in Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra have slid to below ₹7,400 from about ₹8,400 at the start of the month. Arrivals are good but there is no demand particularly from stockists. Turmeric goes to Gujarat, particularly to cities such as Bhavnagar, Jamnagar and Ahmedabad. But purchases from stockists have slowed down since they fear grocery stores will shut due to lockdown. According to the Spices Board of India, turmeric exports increased 34 per cent in volume during the April-December period of the last fiscal to 1.39 lakh tonnes (1.03 lakh tonnes). The value of shipments increased 19 per cent to ₹2,461 crore during the period. According to the first advance estimates of horticultural crop for the current season to June, turmeric production is projected to be lower at 11.06 lakh tonnes (lt) against 11.53 lt last year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7725 Rupees gained 19.45 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6% to settled at 10500 while prices down -56 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8082 and below same could see a test of 7982 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8304, a move above could see prices testing 8426.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7982-8426.
* Turmeric dropped on profit booking as pressure seen after prices dropped across various APMC yards in the country mainly on account of slack demand.
* Turmeric prices are down as there is no demand because of a fresh lockdown due to rise in Covid-19 cases could result in stockists’ purchases dropping.
* Downside seen limited on concerns over production prospects in the new season, relatively lower carryover stocks, and better exports prospects.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7725 Rupees gained 19.45 Rupees.
Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.32% at 13960 as lockdown restrictions increased against rising Covid cases, slowing spot trade interest weakened market sentiments and pushed prices lower. The wholesale offers for the NCDEX grade Jeera are currently offered around Rs.14000/qtl in Unjha and in Jodhpur, the mandi offers average near Rs.13900/qtl. Over a month, the wholesale prices in Unjha and Jodhpur have gone down by Rs.400/qtl and Rs.700/qtl respectively. As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued. The importers prefer to wait for the situation to normalize before negotiating for fresh deals. They rather prefer to clear their older stocks first and presently they feel that the older inventory may be sufficient to balance the existing demand for next few weeks easily. The new season arrivals shall continue with good numbers hence there will be ample availability in the market. However from a broader perspective, India’s exports outlook has brightened while crop is expected to be lower versus year on year. Also, the nearest export competitors i.e. Turkey and Syria may not supply much to the world due to lower exportable surplus. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 57.15 Rupees to end at 14100 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.46% to settled at 6270 while prices down -45 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13900 and below same could see a test of 13835 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14050, a move above could see prices testing 14135.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 13835-14135.
* Jeera dropped as lockdown restrictions increased against rising Covid cases, slowing spot trade interest weakened market sentiments.
* As India struggles against curbing the Corona pandemic, exports markets have turned subdued.
* The importers prefer to wait for the situation to normalize before negotiating for fresh deals.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 57.15 Rupees to end at 14100 Rupees per 100 kg.
Cotton
Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.36% at 22100 after CAI has revised higher Indian cotton export estimates for 2020-21 season at 65 lakh bales against 60 lakh bales projected till last month. Cotton production in Haryana is expected to decline by 27 percent to 1.8 million bales in 2020-21 (July-June) season due to yield loss. India’s cotton output in the 2020-21 (October-September) market year is seen at 38 million bales, up 4 percent on the year. The country’s cotton exports are likely to be 20 percent higher at 1.02 million tonnes in 2020-21 (October-September) backed by competitive pricing in the global markets and an improvement in international cotton consumption, said Care Rating. Higher exports along with a recovery in domestic cotton demand will help reduce the surplus availability of cotton in the nation despite higher supply, the rating agency said in a note. Cotton farmers from various states are planning to increase the area under cultivation in the coming 2021-22 Kharif season. Indian textile mills have reduced production due to lower domestic demand and labour shortage. The government has allowed mills to operate but markets are closed so mills are facing a cash crunch. Textiles mills dealing in exports are still going strong as Indian yarn prices are attractive. In spot market, Cotton gained by 150 Rupees to end at 22610 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -12.37% to settled at 3902 while prices up 80 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 22060 and below same could see a test of 22020 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 22160, a move above could see prices testing 22220.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 22020-22220.
* Cotton seen supported as CAI has revised higher Indian cotton export estimates for 2020-21 season at 65 lakh bales
* Cotton production in Haryana is expected to decline by 27 percent to 1.8 million bales in 2020-21 (July-June) season due to yield loss.
* According to the Punjab Agriculture Department, sowing is been done on only 63,220 hectares, whereas the target is to cover 3.25 lakh hectares area.
* In spot market, Cotton gained by 150 Rupees to end at 22610 Rupees.
Chana
Chana yesterday settled up by 0.83% at 5227 as pulses acreage could witness a decline during the forthcoming kharif season after the Centre opened up imports of tur, urad and moong. Government amended the pulses import policy by moving tur, urad and moong from ‘restricted’ to ‘free’ category. The Commerce Ministry in a notification said the revision in pulses import policy is with immediate effect and will for the period up to October 31, 2021. Further, import consignments of these items with Bill of Landing issued on or before October 31 shall not be allowed by Customs beyond November 30, the notification said. “The Open General License (OGL) under the free import policy will enable the traders to quickly import the required quantity of tur, moong and urad to fulfil the shortage of the pulses. We are expecting minimum 250,000 tonnes of tur, 150,000 tonnes of urad and around 50,000-75,000 tonnes of moong beans to be imported primarily from Myanmar, African, and the neighbouring countries.” Total summer crops have been sown on 73.76 lakh ha area against 60.67 lakh ha during the corresponding period of last year, thus increase in total summer area coverage by 13.09 lakh ha compared to corresponding period of last year in the country. In Delhi spot market, chana gained by 2.5 Rupees to end at 5225 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4% to settled at 131220 while prices up 43 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5189 and below same could see a test of 5150 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5268, a move above could see prices testing 5308.
Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 5150-5308.
* Chana prices gained as pulses acreage could witness a decline during the forthcoming kharif season.
* In recent sessions, prices dropped after Government amended the pulses import policy by moving tur, urad and moong from ‘restricted’ to ‘free’ category.
* The revision in pulses import policy is with immediate effect and will for the period up to October 31, 2021.
* In Delhi spot market, chana gained by 2.5 Rupees to end at 5225 Rupees per 100 kgs.
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