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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.9% at 47584 as a retreat in the dollar pushed investors to seek refuge in bullion with rising coronavirus cases driving expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve might delay tapering of economic support. A spike in COVID-19 cases prompted the Fed to schedule its annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Aug. 27 virtually, with all eyes on Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for hints on the tapering timeline. Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan said he could see the U.S. central bank eventually issuing its own digital currency, calling it the "last mile" in a digitalization of the payment system that is already in train. "I would imagine in the years ahead – it's something the Fed is actively working on now – and I can see reasons why that will eventually get developed; China is already doing their own experiment with it," he said in a virtual appearance at Texas Tech. Still, he added, the Fed is a "long way" from making a decision and is currently studying the issues, including the potential impact on banks. Physical gold demand moderated in top hubs as a rebound in domestic prices and a seasonal lull slowed market activity. Indian premiums fell to $3 an ounce over official domestic prices inclusive of 10.75% import and 3% sales levies versus last week's $5 premiums. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.49% to settled at 11986 while prices up 426 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 47281 and below same could see a test of 46977 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 47757, a move above could see prices testing 47929.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 46977-47929.
* Gold rose as a retreat in the dollar pushed investors to seek refuge in bullion amid rising coronavirus cases.
* Data showed the Japanese and UK economies have taken a hit from the Delta variant.
* Physical gold demand moderated in top hubs as a rebound in domestic prices and a seasonal lull slowed market activity.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 1.95% at 62927 as dollar declined broadly as some doubts about the course of U.S. monetary policy triggered profit-taking. U.S. existing home sales increased for the second consecutive month in July as inventories improved moderately, while prices eased from the prior month’s record level. Existing home sales increased 2.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.99 million units last month from June’s upwardly revised pace, the National Association of Realtors said on Monday. Sales were unchanged in the Northeast, but increased in the Midwest, South and the West. U.S. business activity growth slowed for a third straight month in August as capacity constraints, supply shortages and the rapidly spreading Delta variant of the coronavirus weaken the momentum of the rebound from last year’s pandemic-induced recession. Investors look ahead to the Jackson Hole symposium Thursday for additional insights about the Fed's taper talks. There is growing support within the Fed to announce the tapering of bond purchases sometime between October and December in contrast to the European Central Bank which is under pressure to add more stimulus. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen endorsed Jerome Powell for a second term as Fed chair, a move that could reduce uncertainty about the path for monetary policy. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -18.55% to settled at 8319 while prices up 1206 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 62172 and below same could see a test of 61416 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 63390, a move above could see prices testing 63852.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 61416-63852.
* Silver gained as dollar declined broadly as some doubts about the course of U.S. monetary policy triggered profit-taking.
* U.S. existing home sales increased for the second consecutive month in July as inventories improved moderately
* Investors look ahead to the Jackson Hole symposium Thursday for additional insights about the Fed's taper talks.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 5.32% at 4887 recovering from a seven-day losing streak due to a weaker dollar and strength in global equities markets. Risk appetite in global markets increased despite persistent worries about the COVID-19 Delta variant hampering economic growth. A stronger dollar amid China's crackdown on the once high-flying technology firms and rising prospects of tighter monetary measures from the Federal Reserve also weighed on crude oil prices. Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in June rose to 5.965 million barrels per day (bpd) from 5.649 million bpd in May, official data showed. Monthly export figures are provided by Riyadh and other members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI), which published them on its website. U.S. crude oil stockpiles dropped last week to their lowest levels since January 2020, the Energy Information Administration said. Inventories have been declining for several months as U.S. fuel demand has rebounded with Americans getting vaccinated against coronavirus. Infections, however, are surging again and analysts are watching to see if fuel demand slackens, particularly across southern states where the number of people infected has surged. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -47.4% to settled at 4265 while prices up 247 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4755 and below same could see a test of 4622 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4964, a move above could see prices testing 5040.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4622-5040.
* Crude oil prices rose more than 5% recovering from a seven-day losing streak due to a weaker dollar and strength in global equities markets.
* Risk appetite in global markets increased despite persistent worries about the COVID-19 Delta variant hampering economic growth.
* Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in June rose to 5.965 million barrels per day (bpd) from 5.649 million bpd in May, official data showed.

Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 0.83% at 290.9 on forecasts for hot weather and high air conditioning demand to continue into early September. Last week, gas speculators followed a 9% drop in crude futures and boosted their short positions in natural gas futures and options on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) to the highest since June 2020. That increase in shorts drove speculative open interest in overall NYMEX gas positions to their highest since March 2020. It also caused the speculative net long positions on the NYMEX and Intercontinental Exchange to drop by the most in a week since March 2021 to the lowest since June 2021, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report on Friday. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to an average of 92.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in August from 91.6 bcfd in July. That compares with an all-time high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico have slipped to an average of 6.1 bcfd so far in August from 6.6 bcfd in July and a record 6.7 bcfd in June. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -19% to settled at 4417 while prices up 2.4 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 287.4 and below same could see a test of 283.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 293.3, a move above could see prices testing 295.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 283.8-295.6.
* Natural gas rose on forecasts for hot weather and high air conditioning demand to continue into early September.
* Last week, gas speculators boosted their short positions in natural gas futures and options on NYMEX to the highest since June 2020.
* Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to an average of 92.1 bcfd so far in August from 91.6 bcfd in July.

Copper 

Copper yesterday settled up by 1.38% at 709.6 as hopes of an improvement in demand rose after China, the world's top metals consumer, reported no new locally transmitted COVID-19 cases for the first time since July. Surging novel coronavirus cases due to the highly transmissible Delta variant, slowing China growth and fear of U.S. policy tightening this year have weighed on base metals, with copper hitting its lowest in more than four months last week. The latest Chinese COVID-19 report offered signs that the current outbreak may be tapering off soon. The global world refined copper market showed a 2,000 tonnes surplus in May, compared with a 86,000 tonnes deficit in April, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. For the first 5 months of the year, the market was in a 80,000 tonnes surplus compared with a 121,000 tonnes surplus in the same period a year earlier, the ICSG said. China left its benchmark lending rate for corporate and household loans unchanged for a 16th straight month at its August fixing, as widely expected. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was kept at 3.85%. The five-year LPR remained at 4.65%. The rate was unchanged for the 16th straight month. Twenty-five traders and analysts, or 78% of 32 participants in a snap poll, had predicted no change in either tenor, while the remaining seven respondents all expected a cut to the one-year LPR. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -29.08% to settled at 2612 while prices up 9.65 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 702.6 and below same could see a test of 695.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 714, a move above could see prices testing 718.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 695.7-718.5.
* Copper rose as hopes of an improvement in demand rose after China, reported no new locally transmitted COVID-19 cases for the first time since July.
* Copper market in 2,000 tonnes surplus in May 2021 – ICSG
* China left its benchmark lending rate for corporate and household loans unchanged for a 16th straight month at its August fixing

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.39% at 247.15 as investors returned to riskier assets after a sharp selloff last week that was fanned by worries about slowing economic growth. The global zinc market was undersupplied by 20,200 tonnes in June following a revised deficit of 23,500 tonnes in May, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 17,900 tonnes in May. During the first six months of 2021, the ILZSG data showed the market saw a surplus of 36,000 tonnes, down from a surplus of 385,000 tonnes in the same period of 2020. On the macro front, investors feared that the economic recovery will be disrupted by the raging delta variant, lowing their expectations for an early tightening of liquidity by the Fed. Data showed U.S. business activity growth slowed for a third straight month in August, with IHS Markit's flash Composite PMI output index, falling to 55.4 - the lowest since last December - from 59.9 in July. The Federal Reserve's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, will now be closely watched for cues on when the central bank would start to taper its massive pandemic-era stimulus. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -22.01% to settled at 542 while prices up 0.95 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 246.1 and below same could see a test of 244.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 248.4, a move above could see prices testing 249.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 244.9-249.5.
* Zinc gains as investors returned to riskier assets after a sharp selloff last week that was fanned by worries about slowing economic growth.
* Global zinc market undersupplied by 20,200 tonnes in June, ILZSG says
* Investors feared that the economic recovery will be disrupted by the raging delta variant, lowing their expectations for an early tightening of liquidity by the Fed.
 

Nickel

Nickel yesterday settled up by 2.47% at 1437 amid support from fundamentals and demand from stainless steel and new energy sector. Jilin Jien Nickel, a nickel producer in northeast China, has halted output of nickel cathodes because they are no longer profitable. The company, which has annual capacity to make 8,000 tonnes of refined nickel metal, is still producing nickel salts as normal. China, the world's biggest metals consumer, has very few companies still making nickel cathodes as smelters instead choose to produce nickel sulphate, a chemical used in the burgeoning electric vehicle battery sector. China produced 12,353 tonnes of nickel cathodes in July, according to state-backed research house Antaike, with Jien accounting for 500 tonnes of the total. The global nickel market deficit narrowed to 20,100 tonnes in June compared a shortfall of 23,600 tonnes in May, data from the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) showed. During the first six months of the year, the nickel market saw a deficit of 86,700 tonnes compared with a surplus of 74,200 tonnes in the same period last year, the Lisbon-based INSG added. U.S. existing home sales increased for the second consecutive month in July as inventories improved moderately, while prices eased from the prior month’s record level. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -39.28% to settled at 943 while prices up 34.6 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1426 and below same could see a test of 1415 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1445, a move above could see prices testing 1453.

Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1415-1453.
* Nickel prices gained amid support from fundamentals and demand from stainless steel and new energy sector.
* Chinese nickel producer Jien halts cathode output
* The global nickel market deficit narrowed to 20,100 tonnes in June compared a shortfall of 23,600 tonnes in May

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.95% at 207.75 as aluminium output is expected to shrink further in Q3 in view of short supply of power and intensified control over energy consumption and pollution. Meanwhile, commissioning of expansion projects will also be postponed. Cargos available in the market in Gongyi will maintain amid disrupted transportation. Global primary aluminium output rose to 5.747 million tonnes in July from an upwardly revised 5.558 million tonnes in June, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Estimated primary Chinese production rose to 3.343 million tonnes in June from 3.235 million tonnes in June, it added. One global aluminium producer has offered Japanese buyers premiums of $230 per tonne for October-December primary metal shipments, up 24% from the current quarter. Japan is Asia’s biggest importer of the metal and the premiums for primary metal shipments it agrees to pay each quarter over the London Metal Exchange (LME) cash price set the benchmark for the region. For the July-September quarter, Japanese buyers agreed to pay a premium of $185 per tonne, up 24-25% from the prior quarter and the highest in more than six years as global demand picks up after a pandemic-induced slump. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.74% to settled at 1170 while prices up 1.95 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 206.7 and below same could see a test of 205.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 208.5, a move above could see prices testing 209.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 205.6-209.2.
* Aluminium gains as output is expected to shrink further in Q3 in view of short supply of power and intensified control over energy consumption and pollution.
* One global aluminium producer seeks Q4 premiums of $230/T
* Global primary aluminium output rose to 5.747 million tonnes in July from an upwardly revised 5.558 million tonnes in June

Mentha oil 

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.13% at 919.6 on some low level buying after price dropped as average yield in Barabanki is improved by 5-6 kgs per acre due to better weather. Pressure seen arrivals likely to increase due to favourable weather conditions. Daily arrivals should gradually pick up to 400-500 drums in next 7-10 days. Last week, prices rallied. The Lucknow-based Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants estimates that this adverse effect of rains on the crop is expected to reduce production by 30% in the last two weeks. The crop is prone to rain because the leaves of the crop start falling due to waterlogging in the field. Most of the farmers have planted Mentha crops and this rain is not less than acid for 50 percent of Mentha crop. Last month, support seen due to the rotting of the crop due to stagnant water in the field. The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting. Due to drowning in the water, the rows have started to wither. With the harvesting of the crop, oil extraction work has also started. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 27.8 Rupees to end at 1049.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -26.26% to settled at 615 while prices up 1.2 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 916.9 and below same could see a test of 914.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 923.3, a move above could see prices testing 927.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 914.3-927.1.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 27.8 Rupees to end at 1049.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil gained on some low level buying after price dropped as average yield in Barabanki improved
* Pressure seen arrivals likely to increase due to favourable weather conditions.
* The past few weeks have been painful as heavy rains in the pre-monsoon season have damaged the mentha crop which was ready for harvesting.

Soyabean

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 5.85% at 8630 as in Marathwada, there were concerns about mosaic virus, as well as infestation of pink and American bollworm. Soybean growers from Amravati, Latur and Osmanabad districts have reported the attack of mosaic virus. Meanwhile, soybean has now overtaken cotton to become the number one crop in the state and has been sown on 44.73 lakh hectares. Last year, soybean was sown on some 42 lakh hectares. However upside seen limited amid weakness in overseas prices as forecasts of rains in parts of the U.S. Midwest boosted hopes for better yields. China's soybean imports from top supplier Brazil fell in July from the previous year, customs data showed, as poor crush margins weighed on demand. China, the world's top buyer of soybeans, brought in 7.88 million tonnes of the oilseed from Brazil in July, down 3.7% from 8.18 million tonnes a year earlier, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. For July, China's soybean shipments from all origins totalled 8.67 million tonnes, down 14.1% from the previous year. China also imported 42,277 tonnes of soybeans from the United States in July, up from 38,331 tonnes in the same month a year earlier, according to customs data. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 157 Rupees to 9427 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.87% to settled at 19395 while prices up 477 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 8288 and below same could see a test of 7947 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8806, a move above could see prices testing 8983.

Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 7947-8983.
* Soyabean prices remained supported as in Marathwada, there were concerns about mosaic virus, as well as infestation of pink and American bollworm.
* However upside seen limited amid weakness in overseas prices as forecasts of rains in parts of the U.S. Midwest boosted hopes for better yields.
* China's July soybean imports from Brazil drop on poor crush margins
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  157 Rupees to 9427 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Soyaoil 

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 0.67% at 1405.8 supported by lingering concerns over tight supply. The Government has reduced the import duty of Soyadegum oil to 7.50 percent from 15 percent earlier. Edible oil prices are likely to remain elevated till the arrival of new crop in the October-November period, industry officials said. The rates are unlikely to come down anytime soon as India meets more than half of domestic demand through imports, BV Mehta, executive director, Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA) said. The soybean oil price has surged due to efforts of making renewable bio-diesel fuel from it in the US, Brazil and other countries. Total oilseeds production in the country during 2020-21 is estimated at record 36.10 million tonnes which is higher by 2.88 million tonnes than the production during 2019-20. Further, the production of oilseeds during 2020-21 is higher by 5.56 million tonnes than the average oilseeds production of 30.55 million tonnes. India's imports of sunflower oil could rise to a record in 2021/22 as potential bumper crops in Russia and Ukraine pull prices below rival soyoil, making it lucrative for price-sensitive buyers from the subcontinent, industry officials said. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1414.25 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.17% to settled at 30845 while prices up 9.3 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1391 and below same could see a test of 1376 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1414, a move above could see prices testing 1422.

Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1376-1422.
* Ref soyoil gained supported by lingering concerns over tight supply.
* The Government has reduced the import duty of Soyadegum oil to 7.50 percent from 15 percent earlier.
* Edible oil prices are likely to remain elevated till the arrival of new crop in the October-November period, industry officials said.
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1414.25 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil 

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 0.44% at 1181.9 tracking rise in Malaysian prices as supply concerns fuelled by rising COVID-19 cases countered weak exports and lower Indian import duties on soyoil and sunflower oil. Export shipments during the first half of August had plunged between 15% and 24% from the previous month, cargo surveyors data showed. Indonesia's palm oil exports fell 26.8% in June from the same month a year earlier to 2.03 million tonnes due to volatile prices, the country's palm oil association GAPKI said in a statement. Demand from buyers in the European Union, Middle East, India and Pakistan also dropped, GAPKI said. Crude palm oil output rose 9.4% in June from a year earlier to 4.48 million tonnes, according to the data. Indonesia, the world's largest palm exporter, had enjoyed greater demand than Malaysia over July and August, partly due to lower export taxes and higher discounts for its crude and refined palm oil. Top buyer India is also expected to raise their import tax structure for crude and refined palm oil from end-September as subscriptions for the Diwali festival are finalized. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association forecast a 10.6% rise in August 1-15 production. In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped by -6.9 Rupees to end at 1192.1 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.03% to settled at 4946 while prices up 5.2 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1172 and below same could see a test of 1162.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1189.8, a move above could see prices testing 1197.7.

Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 1162.1-1197.7.
* Crude palm oil gained tracking rise in Malaysian prices as supply concerns fuelled by rising COVID-19 cases
* Export shipments during the first half of August had plunged between 15% and 24% from the previous month
* Indonesia's palm oil exports fell 26.8% in June from the same month a year earlier to 2.03 million tonnes due to volatile prices
* In spot market, Crude palm oil dropped  by -6.9 Rupees to end at 1192.1 Rupees.

Mustard Seed

Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 2.19% at 8165 as USDA estimates Canada rapeseed production for marketing year 2021/22 at 16.0 million metric tons (mmt), down 4.2 mmt (21 percent) from last month, 3.0 mmt (16 percent) from last year, and 20 percent below the 5-year average. Harvested area is estimated at 8.7 million hectares, down 3 percent from last month, but 4 percent above last year, and roughly equivalent to the 5-year average. The month-to-month decrease in area is due to the expectation of weather-related abandonment with prospects for hay being the best use. Yield is estimated at 1.84 metric tons per hectare, down 18 percent from last month and 20 percent below the 5-year average. A European Union Oilseeds and Protein Crops market situation report estimates that the EU will import 6 million metric tons of canola/rapeseed from third countries in 2021-22, 200,000 mt higher than the previous crop year. However, mustard arrivals in its major producing states i.e. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat improved. Production in Canada in 2021 expected to drop by 1.7 million tons to 16.9 million tons. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 103 Rupees to end at 8097.5 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.43% to settled at 34460 while prices up 175 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 8019 and below same could see a test of 7874 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8243, a move above could see prices testing 8322.

Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 7874-8322.
* Mustard seed prices gained as USDA estimates Canada rapeseed production down as drought in the Prairies intensifies.
* EU weekly rapeseed imports jumped by 70% to 127k mt, total at 414k mt
* EU Oilseeds situation report estimates that the EU will import 6 million metric tons of rapeseed from third countries in 2021-22.
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 103 Rupees to end at 8097.5 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric

 Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.99% at 8072 as the lockdown restrictions were eased the key Turmeric growing states, including Maharashtra and Telangana reported noticeable increase in mandi arrivals, which augmented physical market supplies and pressurized prices. However downside seen limited as support seen on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh. Turmeric crops were severely damaged in Parbhani and Hingole due to heavy rains. Further there is expectation of increase in Turmeric sowings in some areas were the key factors that dented market sentiments in the month of June. Mandi arrivals of Turmeric, at all-India level, more than doubled in June 2021 compared to the previous month supported by substantial increase in arrivals in Maharashtra and Telangana. Mandi arrivals had remained sluggish in April and May due to closure of mandis in many regions on account of festival season and Covid related lockdown restrictions. According to the statistics of the Department of Commerce, Government of India, the highest number of 1.84 lakh tonnes of turmeric was exported during the last financial year 2020-21. The export of turmeric is highest in the months of May, June and July. After the relaxation of the lockdown in some states, spot prices have started increasing in Erode and Nanded mandis last week. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7550 Rupees dropped -33.35 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.61% to settled at 13020 while prices down -164 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7912 and below same could see a test of 7750 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8248, a move above could see prices testing 8422.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7750-8422.
* Turmeric dropped as the lockdown restrictions were eased reported noticeable increase in mandi arrivals, which pressurized prices.
* However downside seen limited as support seen on following export demand from Europe, Gulf countries and Bangladesh.
* Turmeric crops were severely damaged in Parbhani and Hingole due to heavy rains.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7550 Rupees dropped -33.35 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 1.14% at 14665 as only 45-50 percent of the total production has come to the market. There is also uncertainty of the lockdown over a possible third wave of Covid and low demand from the hotel industry. Mandi arrivals of Jeera, at all-India level more than doubled in June 2021 compared to the previous month following increased arrivals in Gujarat as well as Rajasthan. As per preliminary estimates suggested that carryover stocks of Jeera are likely to be around of about 20-25 Lakh bags (of 55 Kg each), i.e., 1.10 to 1.30 lakh tonnes which are higher than usual range of 7-12 Lakh bags. However, after accounting for wastage, and increased exports, market participants are expecting carryover stocks to be around 0.65-0.70 lakh tonnes. It may be noted that during the FY 2020-21 Jeera exports stood at 2.98 lakh tonnes, 39% higher over the previous year. As per sources, export demand for Jeera is expected to recover as close competitors of India in terms of exporting Jeera, viz., Turkey and Syria may not supply much to the world due to lower exportable surplus. It has been reported that production in Syria is likely to be lower because of political instability and in Turkey is also likely to be lower compared to previous year. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 29.8 Rupees to end at 14263.15 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.47% to settled at 6297 while prices up 165 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 14450 and below same could see a test of 14240 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14785, a move above could see prices testing 14910.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 14240-14910.
* Jeera prices seen supported as only 45-50 percent of the total production has come to the market.
* However upside seen limited due to the uncertainty of the lockdown over a possible third wave of Covid and low demand from the hotel industry.
* As per preliminary estimates suggested that carryover stocks of Jeera are likely to be around of about 20-25 Lakh
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 29.8 Rupees to end at 14263.15 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.08% at 25790 as the cotton acreage in the country is likely to see a decline of about 15 per cent, with farmers shifting to oilseeds and pulses cultivation in several parts of the country. The cotton acreage last year stood at about 130 lakh hectares last year as against 134 lakh hectares in the previous year. Procurement may be required during the peak season when prices drop below the MSP, top officials of the corporation said. As against 92 lakh bales that was procured in the 2020-21 season, the CCI may not be required to procure more than 30 lakh bales for the new season, Pradeep Kumar Agarwal, CMD of the CCI, told. As per CCPC data, the 2020-21 season began with an opening stock of 120 lakh bales and the crop size was 371 lakh bales with 11 lakh bales of imports, leading to a total supply of 502 lakh bales. The new season may begin with an opening stock of 60-70 lakh bales. As the U.S. cotton crop moves into late summer, it continues to look like one of the better overall crops seen in several years. In spot market, Cotton gained by 30 Rupees to end at 27110 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -10.97% to settled at 1835 while prices up 20 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 25700 and below same could see a test of 25610 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 25890, a move above could see prices testing 25990.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 25610-25990.
* Cotton prices remained supported as Cotton acreage to come down by 15%
* Procurement may be required during the peak season when prices drop below the MSP, top officials of the corporation said.
* As the U.S. cotton crop moves into late summer, it continues to look like one of the better overall crops seen in several years.
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 30 Rupees to end at 27110 Rupees.
 

Chana

Chana yesterday settled up by 1.81% at 5289 as demand is likely to recover in the second half of 2021, as festivals and weddings are likely to boost retail purchases in the fourth quarter. Also from 15th August many states in India are facing long-awaited relaxations from Independence Day on Sunday. Malls can now reopen, while restaurants, gyms, salons and spas are permitted to function at 50% capacity till 10pm, helping ease livelihoods. Meanwhile support also seen after the release of all India pulses sowing data on Friday, revealed that all India, about 126.98 lakh ha area coverage has been reported compared to corresponding week’s 127.40 lakh ha. Thus 0.42 lakh ha less i.e 0.33% area has been covered compared to last year. Last week PM Narendra Modi released the ninth installment of financial benefit under Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi (PM-KISAN), enabling the transfer of more than Rs 19,500 crore to more than 9.75 crore beneficiaries which will raise the sentiments among the Farmers. In Delhi spot market, chana gained by 11 Rupees to end at 5312.5 Rupees per 100 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -12.28% to settled at 81970 while prices up 94 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5212 and below same could see a test of 5136 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5352, a move above could see prices testing 5416.

Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 5136-5416.
* Chana gained as demand is likely to recover in the second half of 2021, as festivals and weddings are likely to boost retail purchases
* The production of pulses has been increasing during the last three years and the target for 2021-2022 has been set at 23 LMT
* India is likely to receive an average amount of rainfall in August and September, the state-run weather office said
* In Delhi spot market, chana gained  by 11 Rupees to end at 5312.5 Rupees per 100 kgs.

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