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Gold yesterday settled flat at 44813 amid stronger dollar, as investors expected the U.S. Federal Reserve to keep the policy accommodative and address concerns over rising inflation and a recent spike in U.S. Treasury yields. Retail sales in the US shrank 3 percent month-over-month in February of 2021, following an upwardly revised 7.6 percent jump in January and much worse than market forecasts of a 0.5 percent fall. It is the biggest decline since a record drop in April of 2020 amid unusually cold weather and winter storms in Texas and some other parts of the South region. The U.S. central bank's Federal Open Market Committee ends its two-day meeting on Wednesday. The Fed has kept interest rates pinned near zero for the past year, and has promised to keep them there until the economy reaches full employment. Demand for physical gold surged in some Asian hubs this week on the back of low domestic prices, with fresh retail interest also allowing dealers to charge higher premiums in India. Dealers charged premiums of $6 an ounce over official domestic prices compared with last week’s premium of $5. Jewellers have been replenishing inventory as sales have improved significantly in the last few weeks, adding investors have started coin and bar purchases at current rates. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.82% to settled at 9161 while prices down -87 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 44690 and below same could see a test of 44568 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 45010, a move above could see prices testing 45208.        

Trading Ideas:            

* Gold trading range for the day is 44568-45208.

* Gold prices remained in a range amid stronger dollar, as investors expected the U.S. Federal Reserve to keep the policy accommodative

* Retail sales in the US shrank 3 percent month-over-month in February of 2021, following an upwardly revised 7.6 percent jump in January

* Demand for physical gold surged in some Asian hubs this week on the back of low domestic prices

Silver      

Silver yesterday settled down by -1.11% at 66919 amid stronger dollar and higher yields U.S. Treasury yields edged up as investors await a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting for clues to the Fed's stance on the issue of rising bond yields. The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, but traders will be paying close attention to any changes to the accompanying statement. Output at U.S. factories plunged in February, depressed by winter storms in Texas, which put some petroleum refineries, petrochemical facilities and plastic resin plants out of commission for the rest of that month. Manufacturing production dropped 3.1% last month, also weighed down by a global semiconductor shortage, the Federal Reserve said. That followed a 1.2% jump in January and ended nine straight monthly increases in factory output. Manufacturing production remains below its pre-pandemic level. U.S. business inventories rose moderately in January amid a sharp rebound in consumer spending at the start of the year, and it is now taking businesses the shortest time in nearly nine years to clear shelves. Business inventories increased 0.3% in January after rising 0.8% in December, the Commerce Department said. Inventories are a key component of gross domestic product. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.32% to settled at 11862 while prices down -750 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 66542 and below same could see a test of 66165 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 67555, a move above could see prices testing 68191.

Trading Ideas:            

* Silver trading range for the day is 66165-68191.

* Silver prices ended with losses amid stronger dollar and higher yields

* Output at U.S. factories plunged in February, depressed by winter storms in Texas

* U.S. business inventories rose moderately in January amid a sharp rebound in consumer spending at the start of the year

Crude oil      

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -0.86% at 4704 as concerns about rising stockpiles in the United States added to the threat to demand posed by countries including Germany and France halting COVID-19 vaccinations. Germany, France and Italy plan to suspend AstraZeneca PLC COVID-19 injections after reports of possible serious side effects, although the World Health Organization said there was no established link to the vaccine. These moves are deepening concerns over a slow pace of vaccinations in the region, which may delay any economic recovery from the pandemic in one of the hardest-hit areas. The pandemic eviscerated demand for oil but prices have recovered to levels before the global health crisis, only to be capped as vaccination rollouts have been slow in most countries. In the United States, stockpiles are also rising because of last month's "big freeze" which halted refining operations that have taken time to fully return. China's daily refinery throughput rose 15% in the first two months of the year, from a low base a year earlier, as fuel demand remains solid and refineries rush to hike production ahead of maintenance season. Refinery processing reached 114.24 million tonnes in the January-February period, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed, equivalent to about 14.13 million barrels per day (bpd). Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.36% to settled at 3460 while prices down -41 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4642 and below same could see a test of 4580 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4758, a move above could see prices testing 4812.

Trading Ideas:            

* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4580-4812.

* Crude oil fell as concerns about rising stockpiles in the United States added to the threat to demand

* Germany, France and Italy plan to suspend AstraZeneca PLC COVID-19 injections after reports of possible serious side effects

* In the United States, stockpiles are also rising because of last month's "big freeze" which halted refining operations that have taken time to fully return.

Nat.Gas      

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 1.82% at 184.8 on near-record liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and expectations that low prices would prompt power generators to burn more gas and less coal to produce electricity in coming weeks. That small price increase occurred despite forecasts for milder weather through the end of March than previously expected. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 90.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up sharply from a 28-month low of 86.5 bcfd in February when extreme weather froze gas wells and pipes in Texas. That was still much lower than the all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would fall from 102.9 bcfd this week to 100.1 bcfd next week as the weather turns milder. The demand forecast for next week, however, was higher than Refinitiv's estimate on Monday due to rising power generator usage. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants, meanwhile, has averaged 10.4 bcfd so far in March. That compares with a four-month low of 8.5 bcfd in February, as extreme cold cut power and gas supplies to the facilities, and a monthly record high of 10.7 bcfd in December. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -17.12% to settled at 9780 while prices up 3.3 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 181.8 and below same could see a test of 178.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 186.7, a move above could see prices testing 188.5.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Natural gas trading range for the day is 178.7-188.5.

* Natural gas edged up on near-record LNG exports and expectations that low prices would prompt power generators to burn more gas

* That small price increase occurred despite forecasts for milder weather through the end of March than previously expected.

* U.S. natgas end – of – season storage to fall to two – year low in March

Copper      

Copper yesterday settled down by -1.38% at 669.3 as investors continued to monitor the slow pace of COVID-19 vaccination in the EU and its impact on Europe's economic recovery. Germany, Italy, France, Spain and the Netherlands have paused the rollout of AstraZeneca's vaccine following reports of blood coagulation disorders in recipients. Investors were cautious ahead of a US Federal Reserve meeting later this week that may provide clues on whether the central bank will move away from its ultra-easy monetary policy. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China's national economy maintained a recovery growth in January and February, and the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 35.1% year on year. Economic prosperity continued to recover, and market optimism boosted copper futures to maintain a high level of operation. The Fed's interest rate decision, and whether it can give copper futures sustained upward momentum will be monitored. On the spot side, the fluctuation of the contract depressed the downstream restocking willingness, and the growth rate of stocks continued to show a significant downward trend. China's imports of copper are likely to rebound in March, but the expected increase after a disappointing start to the year may not be quite as bullish as it appears at first glance. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.63% to settled at 2873 while prices down -9.35 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 665.6 and below same could see a test of 661.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 675.9, a move above could see prices testing 682.5. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Copper trading range for the day is 661.9-682.5.

* Copper prices seen some pressure as investors continued to monitor the slow pace of COVID-19 vaccination in the EU and its impact on Europe's economic recovery.

* Germany, Italy, France, Spain and the Netherlands have paused the rollout of AstraZeneca's vaccine

* China's national economy maintained a recovery growth in January and February

Zinc      

Zinc yesterday settled down by -1.7% at 216.8 as pressure seen with high zinc prices and strong wait-and-see willingness in the downstream, social inventories recorded an increase again. PPI data from January to February released by the National Bureau of Statistics was better than expected, and zinc ore shortage continued, and there was still room for further decline in domestic TC, which provided strong support for zinc prices. The market expects that the US$ 1.9 trillion stimulus plan will help the restarted US economy accelerate its growth and boost market sentiment. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting and Powell's speech will be monitored in the near term. China's zinc and zinc alloy production in February fell by 60,000 tonnes from the previous month due to maintenance over the Lunar New Year holiday, while refined nickel production rose. Last month's output from 51 smelters in state-backed Antaike's zinc production survey totalled 423,000 tonnes, down 3.1% on a daily basis from January, which had three more days, but up 8.2% year-on-year. Smelters that ran maintenance in February have restarted but others in Yunnan, Sichuan, Gansu and Hunan are carrying out overhauls this month; Antaike sees March output topping 450,000 tonnes but falling another 3.2% on a daily basis. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.57% to settled at 1734 while prices down -3.75 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 215.6 and below same could see a test of 214.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 219.2, a move above could see prices testing 221.4.      

Trading Ideas:            

* Zinc trading range for the day is 214.2-221.4.

* Zinc prices dropped as pressure seen with high zinc prices and strong wait-and-see willingness in the downstream, social inventories recorded an increase again

* However, downside seen limited as zinc ore shortage continued, and there was still room for further decline in domestic TC

* PPI data from January to February released by the National Bureau of Statistics was better than expected

Nickel      

Nickel yesterday settled down by -0.1% at 1163.5 as the overall consumption of refined nickel market was relatively stable, and downstream restocked for rigid demand at low prices. The spot of battery-grade nickel sulphate was still tight, but due to the deep drop of nickel prices, the spot prices of battery-grade nickel sulphate may follow the downward trend recently. It is expected that nickel sulphate will still maintain a high premium to nickel briquettes according to the current performance of end-user consumption. Silkroad Nickel said it would supply Chinese stainless steel giant Tsingshan Holding Group with 2.7 million tonnes of high-grade nickel ore in Indonesia by the end of 2022, marking its second major customer win this year. Singapore-listed Silkroad, which mines ore on the Indonesian island of Sulawesi, said in a filing it had inked a contract with Tsingshan unit PT Ekasa Yad Resources worth more than $90 million at current prices and would deliver at least 50,000 tonnes per month from March 2021 to December 2022. Precursor production in February was 35,000 mt, down 10.8% month on month. Some small producers closed for 7-12 days for CNY and a few producers reduced output, while others basically maintained stable operating rates. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.1% to settled at 2014 while prices down -1.2 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1153.9 and below same could see a test of 1144.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1173.9, a move above could see prices testing 1184.3.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Nickel trading range for the day is 1144.3-1184.3.

*  Nickel prices settled flat as the overall consumption of refined nickel market was relatively stable, and downstream restocked for rigid demand

*  Silkroad to supply 2.7 mln T Indonesian nickel ore to China's Tsingshan

*  Increased high-nickel precursor output limited decline in precursor production

Aluminium     

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.14% at 174.1 on profit booking as China’s secondary aluminium inventories increased by 10,000 mt to 1.238 million mt, and the growth rate of aluminium ingot inventories narrowed further. Prices on LME surged to $2,227 per tonne for the first time since June 2018, on the back of production disruptions while demand continues to recover. The Chinese city of Baotou in Inner Mongolia said it would shut down 34 ferroalloy companies and some captive power plants as part of a series of measures to meet its energy consumption targets for the first quarter, which could curb aluminum production by around 100,000 tonnes on an annual basis. Meantime, recent data showed an 8.4% annual increase in Chinese aluminum production in the first two months of the year. Aluminum prices are more than 50% higher than a 4-year low of $1,462 hit last May driven by a recovery in demand particularly in the automotive, packaging and construction sectors from the Covid-19 hit. Operating rates at secondary aluminium producers stood at 41.35% in February, down 20.8 percentage points month on month, but up 23.23 percentage points year on year. Except for a few large factories that did not stop production during CNY, most companies took a 6-20 day break for CNY and undertook maintenance before and after the holiday, causing output to fall by one third or half. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 13.33% to settled at 1173 while prices down -0.25 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 173 and below same could see a test of 171.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 175.5, a move above could see prices testing 176.8. 

Trading Ideas:            

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 171.8-176.8.

* Aluminum dropped on profit booking as China’s secondary aluminium inventories increased by 10,000 mt to 1.238 million mt.

* Prices on LME surged to $2,227 per tonne for the first time since June 2018, on the back of production disruptions while demand continues to recover.

* Meantime, recent data showed an 8.4% annual increase in Chinese aluminum production in the first two months of the year

Mentha oil      

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.06% at 958.6 amid weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. Support also seen on the expectation that India’s fragrance industry which had been slow, now slowly gaining the positive momentum post the COVID unlock down. Headed towards a new decade, the fragrance industry has received a much needed boost with the acceptance of trendy dhoop sticks and dhoop cones which has seen an increased 20% demand day by day. The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030. Growing demand for aroma chemicals in the food & beverage and fragrance industry will underpin the growth of the market. Strict regulations in relation to artificial flavours are complimenting to the expansion of natural aroma chemicals in the food sector. Out of India's total mentha oil exports, nearly 55% goes to China while 16% goes to the US and around 5% goes to Singapore. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1080.3 Rupees per 360 kgs. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.33% to settled at 42 while prices down -0.6 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 958 and below same could see a test of 957.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 959.2, a move above could see prices testing 959.8.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 957.4-959.8.

* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1080.3 Rupees per 360 kgs.

* Mentha oil dropped amid weak demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. 

* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.

*  The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030.

Soyabean      

Soyabean yesterday settled up by 0.26% at 5420 tracking rise in overseas prices as In Argentina, the prolonged dry weather condition in the producing regions has prompted the USDA to lower its forecast of 2020/21 Argentine soybean production to 47.5 million metric tons. In USDA’s monthly report, the Department has left U.S. ending stocks unchanged, lowered the crop guess for Argentina, and raised production for Brazil’s crop size. Despite the hike in the world stocks (due to increase in Brazilian soybean output estimate), consistent growth in world soybean usage, are most likely to keep ending 2020/21 supplies at the tightest level in twelve years. Combined with the increase to Brazilian soybean output, the current level of global soybean stocks appears slightly better versus previous estimates. However, as long as the Brazilian soybean shipments remain delayed, markets may continue to factor in the prevailing tight supply conditions. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported export sales of U.S. soybeans in the week ended March 4 at 563,800 tonnes (old and new crop years combined), in line with trade expectations. Brazilian government supply agency Conab raised its estimate of the country's soybean crop to 135.131 million tonnes, up from its previous estimate of 133.817 million. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 5682 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.1% to settled at 142915 while prices up 14 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 5390 and below same could see a test of 5359 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5469, a move above could see prices testing 5517.   

Trading Ideas:            

* Soyabean trading range for the day is 5359-5517.

* Soyabean gains tracking rise in overseas prices as In Argentina, the prolonged dry weather condition prompted the USDA to lower its forecast of soybean production

* The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported export sales of U.S. soybeans in the week ended March 4 at 563,800 tonnes

* USDA left U.S. ending stocks unchanged, lowered the crop guess for Argentina, and raised production for Brazil’s crop size.

*  At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained  32 Rupees to 5682 Rupees per 100 kgs.

Ref.Soyaoil      

Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled down by -0.8% at 1283.5 on profit booking after prices rallied to record high on tightening global vegetable oil supplies and on uncertainty about South American crop weather. Support also seen as the availability of sunflower in the domestic market is low due to higher prices. Also Soyabean arrivals is decreasing in the mandis. According to USDA, soy production in Argentina may decline by 2.5 million tonnes from January estimate to 4.75 million tonnes, due to no rain in February, excessive rainfall in March. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange lowered its estimate of Argentina's soybean harvest to 44 million tonnes, from 46 million previously, citing dry conditions. Brazilian government supply agency Conab raised its estimate of the country's soybean crop to 135.131 million tonnes, up from its previous estimate of 133.817 million. U.S. soybean processors recorded their second-largest monthly crush on record in January, the latest in a string of historically active months of soy processing, according to data released by the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA). NOPA members, which handle about 95 percent of all soybeans processed in the United States, crushed 184.654 million bushels of soybeans last month, up from 183.159 million bushels in December and 176.940 million bushels in January 2020. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1298.65 Rupees per 10 kgs. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.45% to settled at 58855 while prices down -10.4 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1270 and below same could see a test of 1258 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1299, a move above could see prices testing 1316.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1258-1316.

* Ref soyoil dropped on profit booking after prices rallied to record high on tightening global vegetable oil supplies 

*  Support also seen as the availability of sunflower in the domestic market is low due to higher prices.

*  NOPA soy crush jumps to 184.654 million bushels, second biggest on record

*  At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1298.65 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Crude palm Oil     

Crude palm Oil yesterday settled down by -0.97% at 1128.7 on profit booking after prices rallied to record high lifted by a jump in crude and rival edible oils due to tightening global supplies. India's palm oil imports fell 27% in February from a year earlier to their lowest in nine months, a leading trade body said, reflecting a slowdown in domestic demand. India imported 394,495 tonnes of palm oil, down from 540,470 tonnes a year earlier, the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) said in a statement. Soyoil imports fell to 285,973 tonnes from 322,448 tonnes, the SEA said. Overseas purchases of sunflower oil dropped to 116,110 tonnes from 226,743 tonnes. India buys palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia, while other oils, including soyoil and sunflower oil, are sourced from Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine and Russia. As lower shipments have depleted stocks, India's palm oil imports are expected to rebound in March and April to meet rising demand from hotels and restaurants. Investors are now awaiting cargo surveyors to announce March 1-15 export data but shipments are expected to remain slow amid lower stockpile and output. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 3.2 Rupees to end at 1163 Rupees. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.49% to settled at 4610 while prices down -11.1 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1116 and below same could see a test of 1103.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1143.2, a move above could see prices testing 1157.8.          

Trading Ideas:            

* CPO trading range for the day is 1103.4-1157.8.

* Crude palm oil dropped on profit booking after prices rallied to record high lifted by a jump in crude and rival edible oils due to tightening global supplies.

*  India's palm oil imports fell 27% in February from a year earlier to their lowest in nine months

*  Malaysia's March 1 – 15 palm oil exports fall 4.6 pct – AmSpec Agri

*  In spot market, Crude palm oil gained  by 3.2 Rupees to end at 1163 Rupees.

Mustard Seed      

Mustard Seed yesterday settled down by -0.73% at 5811 amid profit booking as the mustard sowing was excellent this year and production is expected to be better with favorable weather. The arrival of new crops has started increasing in the mandis. The daily arrival of mustard in the current weekend was 1.85 lakh kattas. The daily arrival of new mustard in the mandis of Rajasthan has reached 70 thousand kattas. Mustard is getting up to 7/15 percent moisture. The weather is changing, so the moisture content is expected to decrease soon. The daily arrival of new mustard in the mandis of Uttar Pradesh is increasing day by day. The latest Government data shows that the planted area in Mustard or RM seed has so far reached 73.25 Lakh hectares as against 68.64 Lakh hectares during last year’s corresponding period. The government aims to take the area under mustard to around 80 lakh hectares this year, under the Oilseeds Mission program. The mustard crop continues providing better prices to farmers than the MSP till now. India’s 2020-21 mustard crop may touch 100 lakh tonlevel due to higher sowing and conducive weather. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 5700 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.49% to settled at 55340 while prices down -43 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 5760 and below same could see a test of 5710 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5902, a move above could see prices testing 5994.    

Trading Ideas:            

* Rmseed trading range for the day is 5710-5994.

* Mustard seed gained as the crop ready to be harvested has suffered a lot due to the intense sun and heat for the past several days, cloudburst occurred in eastern Rajasthan.

* There will be no significant deposit in the accredited warehouses of NCDEX till March-end.

* The moisture content is being said to be high in the new mustard product coming.

*  In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 5700 Rupees per 100 kg.

Turmeric      

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -2.18% at 8718 as the arrival of turmeric in the Nizamabad yard has doubled. Pressure also seen as no demand for shipments at current prices of around ₹9,000 and export prospects of turmeric have been affected. The arrival of dry goods in the coming days, the quality will also start to improve. The arrival of new goods has started in Telangana and Sangli Mandi in Maharashtra. The arrival of new crop on the Erode line will start in the month of March. But due to less sowing this year, the production is also less likely than last year. During the current week Erode single polished bundle in Erode Mandi was quoted at Rs 6100/6300 with a rise from Rs 5800/6000. In recent sessions, prices were up in the spot due to lack of stock and inward arrivals of new goods in the month of February-March. During the current week, the price of Gatta without polish in Warangal rose by Rs 200 to Rs 5600. While the double polished bundle was strengthened from Rs 6200 to Rs 6400. Further new goods arrived in the turmeric auction held in Sangli Mandi, Maharashtra in the beginning of the week but due to moisture and quality turmeric trade was low. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8077.8 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.61% to settled at 8600 while prices down -194 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8550 and below same could see a test of 8380 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 8990, a move above could see prices testing 9260.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 8380-9260.

* Turmeric dropped as the arrival of turmeric in the Nizamabad yard has doubled.

* Pressure also seen as no demand for shipments at current prices of around ₹9,000 and export prospects of turmeric have been affected.

* The arrival of dry goods in the coming days, the quality will also start to improve.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8077.8 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees.

Jeera      

Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.24% at 14695 as the arrival from the fields has started intensifying but the market is awaiting better quality spices with lower moisture content. However downside seen limited as there is a possibility of a decrease in the production of cumin due to the rise in temperature. In Unjha Mandi, 21,000 bags have come in as compared to 12,500 bags in Rajkot whereas 7,500 bags have arrived in Rajkot as compared to 7,000 bags in the previous session. The Unjha market is receiving nearly 1,000 bags per day from north Gujarat, Saurashtra, and parts of Rajasthan. Jeera production for 2021-22 (marketing period) is estimated at 391,291 MT (around 71 lakh bags each of 55 kg) compared to last year’s 451,451 MT (82 lakh bags). Major export demand coming from UAE and other gulf countries ahead of Ramzan. Domestic demand is also boosted by Ramzan and marriage season. Weather conditions in major producing states have hampered the quality and supply of jeera. On the international front support is also seen as turkey and Syria have reported less production of cumin this season. Production in Syria had dropped around 25-30 percent in 2020 versus the previous year due to political instability that has hampered the farming sector. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 14068.4 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.36% to settled at 4473 while prices down -185 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 14555 and below same could see a test of 14410 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14940, a move above could see prices testing 15180.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Jeera trading range for the day is 14410-15180.

* Jeera dropped as the arrival from the fields has started intensifying but the market is awaiting better quality spices with lower moisture content.

*  However downside seen limited as there is a possibility of a decrease in the production of cumin due to the rise in temperature.

* In Unjha Mandi, 21,000 bags have come in as compared to 12,500 bags in Rajkot whereas 7,500 bags have arrived as compared to 7,000 bags

* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 14068.4 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton      

Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.32% at 22170 as India’s cotton exports are likely to hit 60 lakh bales (each of 170 kg) for the current season (October2020-September 2021) on cost competitiveness. Trade body Cotton Association of India (CAI) has noted that so far about 60 per cent or 36 lakh bales has been shipped since the start of the season. This is primarily due to Indian cotton’s price competitiveness in the international market. Indian cotton quoted at around ₹44,000-45,500 per candy (each of 356 kg of processed cotton) during the past couple of months. At this rate, the Indian exporters could offer a 10-per cent discount to the international prices, which hovered at around 85.60 cents per pound. For the cotton crop, CAI has revised its output projections downward to 358.5 lakh bales, lower by about 1.5 lakh bales from previous estimate. Last year, the output was expected at 360 lakh bales. CAI, in its latest crop outlook for March, stated that India’s cotton imports will be around 12 lakh bales for the year, which is lower by about 2 lakh bales from the earlier estimated about 14 lakh bales for the season. The likely drop is attributed to the recent hike in the import duty on long-staple variety of cotton. Last year, India had imported 15.50 lakh bales of the fibre. As per the CAI data, as on February 28, total 7 lakh bales has already arrived at Indian ports. In spot market, Cotton gained by 30 Rupees to end at 22120 Rupees. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.43% to settled at 6203 while prices up 70 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 22020 and below same could see a test of 21880 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 22320, a move above could see prices testing 22480.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Cotton trading range for the day is 21880-22480.

* Cotton prices gained as support seen amid Cotton exports seen hitting 60 lakh bales on competitive rates

* CAI has noted that so far about 60 per cent or 36 lakh bales has been shipped since the start of the season.

* CAI has revised its output projections downward to 358.5 lakh bales, lower by about 1.5 lakh bales from previous estimate.

* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 30 Rupees to end at 22120 Rupees.

Chana​​​​​​​      

Chana yesterday settled up by 0.27% at 5162 as unseasonal rains and hailstorms lashing part of Eastern Madhya Pradesh are affecting the ready-to-harvest crop. Support also seen as support seen after update Chana yield in Rajasthan are lower by 20 -30 % compared to last year and sudden rise in temperature causing early maturity. However upside seen limited as the inventory held by the government is reasonable enough to balance the consumption till the new season supply is available. There are estimations of yields to surpass their recent five year average because of ample moisture retained after the monsoon season. Government’s planting data says that the planted area for chickpeas in India has increased from 10.731 million hectares at this time last year to a record 11.2 million. The average output for this year is estimated near to 11.74 million MT, up from 11.35 million last year. However downside seen limited due to lower arrivals and steady off take in the Chana processed products. The recent lockdown imposition in Maharashtra has resulted in temporary closure of few mandis, because of which there will be a supply constraint for a while. The Daily All India arrivals are limited these days and at the same time, rising prices is prompting NAFED to without their sale decision. Actual production likely to be much lower than official estimate due to damage to crop due to rising heat. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 5043.6 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.79% to settled at 75830 while prices up 14 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 5120 and below same could see a test of 5079 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5194, a move above could see prices testing 5227.           

Trading Ideas:            

* Chana trading range for the day is 5079-5227.

* Chana gained as unseasonal rains and hailstorms lashing part of Eastern Madhya Pradesh are affecting the ready-to-harvest crop. 

* During the Rabi season this year, about 112 lakh hectare area has been sown in the gram producing states, which was in 107.30 lakh hectare last year.

* The inventory held by the government is reasonable enough to balance the consumption till the new season supply is available.

* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped  by -35.4 Rupees to end at 5043.6 Rupees per 100 kgs.

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