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INDUSTRY VALUATIONS

India Cement Industry peers are trading at 9.2x EV/E and USD 109/t on FY23E

PRICE TRENDS

All India Cement prices in Jul-21 changed -2% MoM, -1% QoQ, 2% YoY

VOLUME TRENDS

Industry production in Jun’21 was 27.4mnT; 13.1% MoM, 4.3% YoY

COST COMPONENT TRENDS

Petcoke/Coal/Diesel prices have changed by 25%/65%/10% QoQ and 99%/85%/20% YoY

PER TONNE IMPACT

Expect Power costs to increase by INR 186/t and Freight cost by INR 41/t QoQ

QUARTERLY MATRIX

Volumes are up 43.9% YoY; Realisation are up 6.7% QoQ; EBITDA/t is up 4.8% YoY in 1Q

DEMAND TRENDS

We expect 10-12% growth in cement volumes in FY22E

TOP PICKS

We are positive on Ultratech, Dalmia Bharat, JK Cement and JK Lakshmi

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE WEEK

* Ambuja commissions plant in Nagaur: Ambuja has began a trial run at plant at Marwar Mundwa in Rajasthan. Clinker capacity has been enhanced by 3MTPA with the commissioning of this plant. The plant is equipped with WHR capacity.

* TERI, GCCA India work on sustainability: TERI and GCCA India have signed MoU to facilitate and accelerate sustainable development of cement and concrete sectors. Organisation leads the industry’s drive for carbon neutrality by 2050.

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