Add Hindustan Unilever Ltd For Target Rs. 2,701 - Centrum Broking
Strong start in Q1FY23; cost pressure to continue
HUVR’s Q1FY23 print was ahead of our estimates; revenue/EBITDA/APAT grew 19.8%/ 14.0%/10.3%, supported by 6% volume growth YoY. Undeniably, it was a solid all?round performance in a challenging environment. Management alluded, with rising food and fuel inflation consumer wallet share shrank and they chose to buy more essentials over discretionary products. We reckon with pick up in OOH consumption, 75% business winning markets share. Gross margin contracted 300bp to 47.4% due to unwavering inflation in top? 4 commodities – palm oil, crude oil, soda ash, and plastics coupled with currency depreciation. Though EBITDA grew 14%, high ad?spends (+30%), other expenditure (+14.5%) and employee cost (?3.4%) cut EBITDA margin by 114bp to 22.8%. The management said near term operating environment continue to be challenging and margins to decline due to increasing price vs cost gap. We have marginally tweaked earnings and retain ADD rating, with a revised DCF?based TP of Rs2,701 (56.3x FY24E EPS).
Strong revenues in Q1FY23 as business fundamentals remained strong
Given strong pricing action, domestic business grew 19.8%, driven by 6% volume growth. Segmental growth: Home care +30.0%, BPC +17.3%, and F&R +9.3%. Management said, with rising kitchen inflation, consumer wallet share shrank, forcing them to buy more essentials over discretionary products, more visible in rural markets. With completion of GSK?CH portfolio integration, management remain confident on driving penetration and distribution using consumer connect (10mn) program. We note, HUVR is now building a stronger business growing e?commerce – digitized demand now captures +20% of sales with SHIKHAR app connecting 950K retailers. Considering Nielsen projections, the management confirmed moderating volume growth in rural (3?year CAGR volume flat), ahead of urban throughout Q1, yet sounded optimistic given pick up in monsoon and govt. spending on infrastructure driving consumption.
Operating environment remain challenging; persistent cost pressure to impact margins
In Q1, gross margin slipped 300bp to 47.4% led by elevated RM/PM costs, in top?4 commodities, crude oil +62%, palm oil +55%, plastics +20%, and Soda Ash +76% coupled with currency depreciation. HUVR executed further 2?3% price increases to mitigate cost pressure. EBITDA grew 14.0%; EBITDA margin at 22.8% (?114bp) was led by rise in ad?spends by 30%, and other expenditure (14.5%), yet higher operating leverage cut employee cost (?3.4%). The management indicated margins to moderate due to (a) continued inflation in RM/PM, (b) rising rupee vs US $, (c) increasing price vs. cost gap, and (d) demand for value?for?money products.
Near?term demand outlook remains cautiously optimistic
The management stated that near term growth to be price led as inflation to continue impacting consumption. With most commodities remaining elevated and consumption of higher cost pipeline inventory, Q2 will see more inflation than Q1, and margins would remain under pressure. HUVR believes, strength of brands and robust business model will hold HUVR ahead of FMCG market growth.
Valuation and risks
We expect gradual recovery in discretionary spends and inherent distribution strength to drive GSK?CH business. Though margins could remain in tight range, given inflationary cycle and high ad? spends. Considering higher than expected revenue growth, we have marginally tweaked estimates and retain our ADD rating, with a revised DCF?based TP of Rs2,701 (56.3x FY24E EPS). Risks to our call include significant acceleration in volume/price, decrease in ad?spends leading to margin expansion, and lower competitive intensity.
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